Cheers, glad I'm not dealing with 300 variables. Don't think the situation is quite as dire as for sleeping pills luckily.hoagy on Hoagy's Shortform
Thanks, I'll give it a read.measure on D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021: The Duel with Earwax
Mostly it's just the conjunction of so many events. Even if each battle has a 99% chance of success (which seems high), the chance to win 291 battles in a row is 5.4%.tag on On the limits of idealized values
Ok. I'm glad you noticed, in the linked post, that utilitarianism doesn't have a cheent model of obligation.lincolnquirk on Two non-obvious lessons from microcovid.org
Thanks for writing this, and for writing the software! Microcovid was quite impactful in my own life and the software is shockingly thoughtful — you put so many tiny little details in to help me decide (oh, it’s a taxi ride and I don’t think the driver is going to wear a mask, but I can open the window…)
I think this must be a result of your & your team’s hard work talking to nonrationalists, as you note, but I also think you must have really good product instincts. Just talking to people is not, in my view, enough to produce a product that thoughtful — you also have to figure out what to do with the data. Nice work :)christiankl on How do you deal with people cargo culting COVID-19 defense?
I am curious ,what does the data say?
Generally, there are a lot of questions where we don't have good data.
The question of whether to require FFP-2 masks is not one of compare a FFP-2 mask to no mask. The point of FFP-2 masks is that they can seal so that all the air gets filtered which a surgery mask can't. Requiring people to wear FFP-2 masks (not allowing any passenger who wears just a surgery mask on public transportation) but not do anything to help them to wear them in a way that seals is what's strange.yimbygeorge on How do you deal with people cargo culting COVID-19 defense?
I am curious ,what does the data say? Is wearing even a poorly fitting mask better at preventing you from spreading covid compared to not wearing amask at all?christiankl on Unbundling Humans, or, Unbundling Human Creation.
When it comes to SexTech, it's unclear to what extends that increases the amount of reproductive sex that people have. It's not in Tinders interests for people to marry, have kids and remove themselves from the dating market.
Japan is a country where "most married men were too busy or tired from work to have sex". Given that Japanese workers also are not working in a way that leads to much economic growth, their problem isn't just about childcare being expensive or timeconsuming. It's that too much human capital goes into busywork.
The key reason why childcare needs a lot of time from parents is that attitudes towards what a parent should provide for their children have changed. When faced with parents spending exponentially more time on childcare over the years, saying "How about the state does the childcare?" seems to avoid the core issue.
The hard issue is about understanding what activities actually have to need to be done or are useful.neel-nanda-1 on Empirical Observations of Objective Robustness Failures
This seems like really great work, nice job! I'd be excited to see more empirical work around inner alignment.
One of the things I really like about this work is the cute videos that clearly demonstrate 'this agent is doing dumb stuff because its objective is non-robust'. Have you considered putting shorter clips of some of the best bits to Youtube, or making GIFs? (Eg, a 5-10 second clip of the CoinRun agent during train, followed by a 5-10 second clip of the CoinRun agent during test). It seemed that one of the major strengths of the CoastRunners clip was how easily shareable and funny it was, and I could imagine this research getting more exposure if it's easier to share highlights. I found the Google Drive pretty hard to navigateneel-nanda-1 on Irrational Modesty
Seconded, that line really hit home for me