LessWrong 2.0 Reader

No I have not seen a detailed argument about this, just the claim that once centralization goes past a certain point there is no coming back. I would like to see such an argument/investigation as I think it is quite important. "Yuval Harari" does say something similar in "Sapiens" 

I don't have a strong opinion because I think there's huge uncertainty in what is healthy. But for instance, my intuition is that a plant-based meat that had very similar nutritional characteristics as animal meat would be about as healthy (or unhealthy) as the meat itself. The plant-based meat would be ultra-processed. But one could think of the animal meat as being ultra-processed plants, so I guess one could think that that is the reason that animal meat is unhealthy?

I always assumed that, since high IQ is correlated with high openness, the higher openness would be the cause of higher likelihood of becoming trans. 

(or, some more general situation where IQ is causing transness more than the other way around., e.g. high scores on IQ tests might be caused to some extent by earnestness/intensity etc., which could also cause more likelihood of becoming trans)

Or maybe speaking french automatically makes you healthier. I'm gonna choose to believe it's that one.

If you're into podcasts, the Very Bad Wizards guys did an ep on this essay, which I enjoyed: https://verybadwizards.com/episode/episode-227-a-terrible-master-david-foster-wallaces-this-is-water

seems in tension with your smarter friends transitioning after high school.

They seemed low-T during high school though!

Yeah could be a third factor though. Maybe you are right.

I see that when I commented yesterday, I was confused about how you had defined U. You're right that you don't need a consistent guessing oracle to get from U to a completion of U, since the axioms are all atomic propositions, and you can just set the remaining atomic propositions however you want. However, this introduces the problem that getting the axioms of U requires a halting oracle, not just a consistent guessing oracle, since to tell whether something is an axiom, you need to know whether there actually is a proof of a given thing in T.

I don't know enough about hormonal biology to guess a specific cause(some general factor of neoteny, perhaps??). It's much easier to infer that it's likely some third factor than to know exactly what third factor it is. I actually think most of the evidence in this very post supports the 3rd-factor position or is equivocal - testosterone acting as a nootropic is very weird if it makes you dumber, that men and women have equal IQs seems not to be true, the study cited to support a U-shaped relationship seems flimsy, that most of the ostensible damage occurs before adulthood seems in tension with your smarter friends transitioning after high school.

Could you define what you mean here by counterfactual impact?

My knowledge of the word counterfactual comes mainly from the blockchain world, where we use it in the form of "a person could do x at any time, and we wouldn't be able to stop them, therefore x is counterfactually already true or has counterfactually already occured"

The argument is that with 1970′s tech the soviet union collapsed, however with 2020 computer tech (not needing GenAI) it would not.

I note that China is still doing market economics, and nobody is trying (or even advocating, AFAIK) some very ambitious centrally planned economy using modern computers, so this seems like pure speculation? Has someone actually made a detailed argument about this, or at least has the agreement of some people with reasonable economics intuitions?