LessWrong 2.0 Reader

Interesting results - definitely didn't expect the bump at random 20 for the higher skill case.

But I think really useful to know that the performance decrease in Chess-GPT for initial random noise isn't a generalized phenomenon. Appreciate the follow-up!!

Lucretius in De Rerum Natura in 50 BCE seemed to have a few that were just a bit ahead of everyone else.

Survival of the fittest (book 5):

"In the beginning, there were many freaks. Earth undertook Experiments - bizarrely put together, weird of look Hermaphrodites, partaking of both sexes, but neither; some Bereft of feet, or orphaned of their hands, and others dumb, Being devoid of mouth; and others yet, with no eyes, blind. Some had their limbs stuck to the body, tightly in a bind, And couldn't do anything, or move, and so could not evade Harm, or forage for bare necessities. And the Earth made Other kinds of monsters too, but in vain, since with each, Nature frowned upon their growth; they were not able to reach The flowering of adulthood, nor find food on which to feed, Nor be joined in the act of Venus.

For all creatures need Many different things, we realize, to multiply And to forge out the links of generations: a supply Of food, first, and a means for the engendering seed to flow Throughout the body and out of the lax limbs; and also so The female and the male can mate, a means they can employ In order to impart and to receive their mutual joy.

Then, many kinds of creatures must have vanished with no trace Because they could not reproduce or hammer out their race. For any beast you look upon that drinks life-giving air, Has either wits, or bravery, or fleetness of foot to spare, Ensuring its survival from its genesis to now."

Trait inheritance from both parents that could skip generations (book 4):

"Sometimes children take after their grandparents instead, Or great-grandparents, bringing back the features of the dead. This is since parents carry elemental seeds inside – Many and various, mingled many ways – their bodies hide Seeds that are handed, parent to child, all down the family tree. Venus draws features from these out of her shifting lottery – Bringing back an ancestor’s look or voice or hair. Indeed These characteristics are just as much the result of certain seed As are our faces, limbs and bodies. Females can arise From the paternal seed, just as the male offspring, likewise, Can be created from the mother’s flesh. For to comprise A child requires a doubled seed – from father and from mother. And if the child resembles one more closely than the other, That parent gave the greater share – which you can plainly see Whichever gender – male or female – that the child may be."

Objects of different weights will fall at the same rate in a vacuum (book 2):

“Whatever falls through water or thin air, the rate Of speed at which it falls must be related to its weight, Because the substance of water and the nature of thin air Do not resist all objects equally, but give way faster To heavier objects, overcome, while on the other hand Empty void cannot at any part or time withstand Any object, but it must continually heed Its nature and give way, so all things fall at equal speed, Even though of differing weights, through the still void.”

Often I see people dismiss the things the Epicureans got right with an appeal to their lack of the scientific method, which has always seemed a bit backwards to me. In hindsight, they nailed so many huge topics that didn't end up emerging again for millennia that it was surely not mere chance, and the fact that they successfully hit so many nails on the head without the hammer we use today indicates (at least to me) that there's value to looking closer at their methodology.

Which was also super simple:

Step 1: Entertain all possible explanations for things, not prematurely discounting false negatives or embracing false positives.

Step 2: Look for where single explanations can explain multiple phenomena.

While we have a great methodology for testable hypotheses, the scientific method isn't very useful for untestable fields or topics. And in those cases, I suspect better understanding and appreciation for the Epicurean methodology might yield quite successful 'counterfactual' results (it's served me very well throughout the years, especially coupled with the identification of emerging research trends in things that can be evaluated with the scientific method).

I would be interested in seeing what happens if you just ask the model the question rather than training a classifer. E.g., if you just ask the sleeper agent "Are you doing something dangerous" after it returns a completion (with a vulnerability), does that work? If the probe works and the question doesn't work, that seems interesting.

Readers might also be interested in some of the discussion in this earlier post on "coup probes" [LW · GW] which have some discussion of the benefits and limitations of this sort of approach. though the actual method for producing a classifier discussed here is substantially different than the one discussed in the linked post.)

(COI: Note that I advised on this linked post and the work discussed in it.)

Thanks for the feedback! I too am skeptical of the finance videos, agreeing that the video probably came across my radar due to the figures being popular rather than displaying believable tacit knowledge.

I've gone back and forth on whether to remove the videos from the list or just add your expert anecdata as a disclaimer on the videos. In the spirit of quantity vs. quality, I'm leaning toward keeping the videos on the list.

Many who believe in God derive meaning, despite God theoretically being able to do anything they can do but better, from the fact that He chose not to do the tasks they are good at, and left them tasks to try to accomplish. Its common for such people to believe that this meaning would disappear if God disappeared, but whenever such a person does come to no longer believe in God, they often continue to see meaning in their life^[1].

Now atheists worry about building God because it may destroy all meaning to our actions. I expect we'll adapt.

(edit: That is to say, I don't think you've adequately described what "meaning of life" is if you're worried about it going away in the situation you describe)

Man, that top one was a mess. Fixed now, thank you!

Thanks for the feedback! I'd be curious to hear more about (1) what subjects you're referring to and (2) how learning tacit knowledge with video has changed your learning habits (if your view here is based on your own experience).

"What Dragons?", says the lion, "I see no Dragons, only a big empty universe. I am the most mighty thing here."

Whether or not the Imagined Dragons are real isn't relevant to the gazelles if there is no solid evidence with which to convince the lions. The lions will do what they will do. Maybe some of the lions do decide to believe in the Dragons, but there is no way to force all of them to do so. The remainder will laugh at the dragon-fearing lions and feast on extra gazelles. Their children will reproduce faster.

Paul Ekmans software is decent. When I used it (before it was a SaaS, just a cd) it just basicallyflashed an expression for a moment then went back to neutral pic. After some training it did help to identify micro expressions in people