LessWrong 2.0 Reader

transgender women have immunity to visual illusions

Can you source this claim? I've never heard it and GPT-4 says it has no scientific basis. Are you just referring to the mask and dancer thing that Scott covered?

What you are missing here is:

• Existential risk apart from AI
• People are dying / suffering as we hesitate

Yes, there is a good argument that we need to solve alignment first to get ANY good outcome, but once an acceptable outcome is reasonably likely, hesitation is probably bad. Especially if you consider the likelihood that mere humans can accurately predict or even precisely steer a transhuman future.

I expect large parts of interpretability work could be safely automatable very soon (e.g. GPT-5 timelines) using (V)LM agents; see A Multimodal Automated Interpretability Agent for a prototype. 

Notably, MAIA (GPT-4V-based) seems approximately human-level on a bunch of interp tasks, while (overwhelmingly likely) being non-scheming (e.g. current models are bad at situational awareness and out-of-context reasoning) and basically-not-x-risky (e.g. bad at ARA).

Given the potential scalability of automated interp, I'd be excited to see plans to use large amounts of compute on it (including e.g. explicit integrations with agendas like superalignment or control; for example, given non-dangerous-capabilities, MAIA seems framable as a 'trusted' model in control terminology).

Sure. One such example would be traditional bread. It is made from grain that is ground, mechanically separated, biotechnologically treated with a highly modified yeast, mechanically treated again and thermally treated. So it is one of the most processed foods we have, but is typically not included as "ultra-processed". Or take traditional soy sauce or cheese or beer or cured meats (that are probably actually quite bad) or tofu...

So as a natural category "ultra processed" is mostly hogwash. Either you stick with raw foods from the environment we adapted to, which will allow you to feed a couple million people at best or you need to explain WHICH processing is bad and preferably why. All non traditional processing is of course a heuristic you can use, but it certainly not satisfactory as a theory/explanation.

Also some traditional processes are probably pretty unhealthy. Like cured meats, alcoholic fermentation, high heat singeing and smoking depending on the exact process come to mind

I don't buy this, the curvedness of the sea is obvious to sailors, e.g. you see the tops of islands long before you see the beach, and indeed to anyone who has ever swum across a bay! Inland peoples might be able to believe the world is flat, but not anyone with boats.

Singular Learning Theory is another way of "talking about the breadth of optima" in the same sense that Newton's Universal Law of Gravitation is another way of "talking about Things Falling Down". 

It looks to me as if, of the four "root causes of social relationships becoming more of a lemon market" listed in the OP, only one is actually anything to do with lemon-market-ness as such.

The dynamic in a lemon market is that you have some initial fraction of lemons but it hardly matters what that is because the fraction of lemons quickly increases until there's nothing else, because buyers can't tell what they're getting. It's that last feature that makes the lemon market, not the initial fraction of lemons. And I think three of the four proposed "root causes" are about the initial fraction of lemons, not the difficulty of telling lemons from peaches.

• urbanization: this one does seem to fit: it means that the people you're interacting with are much less likely to be ones you already know about, so you can't tell lemons from peaches.
• drugs: this one is all about there being more lemons, because some people are addicts who just want to steal your stuff.
• MLM schemes: again, this is "more lemons" rather than "less-discernible lemons".
• screens: this is about raising the threshold below which any given potential interaction/relationship becomes a lemon (i.e., worse than the available alternative), so again it's "more lemons" not "less-discernible lemons".

Note that I'm not saying that "drugs", "MLM", and "screens" aren't causes of increased social isolation, only that if they are the way they're doing it isn't quite by making social interactions more of a lemon market. (I think "screens" plausibly is a cause of increased social isolation. I'm not sure I buy that "drugs" and "MLM" are large enough effects to make much difference, but I could be convinced.)

I like the "possible solutions" part of the article better than the section that tries to fit everything into the "lemon market" category, because it engages in more detail with the actual processes involved by actual considering possible scenarios in which acquaintances or friendships begin. When I think about such scenarios in the less-isolated past and compare with the more-isolated present, it doesn't feel to me like "drugs" and "MLM" are much of the difference, which is why I don't find those very plausible explanations.

Most of the weird stuff involving priors comes into being when you want posteriors over a continuous hypothesis space, where you get in trouble because reparametrizing your space changes the form of your prior, so a uniform "natural" prior is really a particular choice of parametrization. Using a discrete hypothesis space avoids big parts of the problem.

Don't forget Wallace !

Yes, beautiful example ! Van Leeuwenhoek was the one-man ASML of the 17th century. In this case, we actually have evidence to the counterfactual impact as other lensmakers trailed van Leeuwenhoek by many decades.

It's plausible that high-precision measurement and fabrication is the key bottleneck in most technological and scientific progress- it's difficult to oversell the importance of van Leeuwenhoek. 

Antonie van Leeuwenhoek made more than 500 optical lenses. He also created at least 25 single-lens microscopes, of differing types, of which only nine have survived. These microscopes were made of silver or copper frames, holding hand-made lenses. Those that have survived are capable of magnification up to 275 times. It is suspected that Van Leeuwenhoek possessed some microscopes that could magnify up to 500 times. Although he has been widely regarded as a dilettante or amateur, his scientific research was of remarkably high quality.^[39]

The single-lens microscopes of Van Leeuwenhoek were relatively small devices, the largest being about 5 cm long.^[40][41] They are used by placing the lens very close in front of the eye. The other side of the microscope had a pin, where the sample was attached in order to stay close to the lens. There were also three screws to move the pin and the sample along three axes: one axis to change the focus, and the two other axes to navigate through the sample.

Van Leeuwenhoek maintained throughout his life that there are aspects of microscope construction "which I only keep for myself", in particular his most critical secret of how he made the lenses.^[42] For many years no one was able to reconstruct Van Leeuwenhoek's design techniques, but in 1957, C. L. Stong used thin glass thread fusing instead of polishing, and successfully created some working samples of a Van Leeuwenhoek design microscope.^[43] Such a method was also discovered independently by A. Mosolov and A. Belkin at the Russian Novosibirsk State Medical Institute.^[44] In May 2021 researchers in the Netherlands published a non-destructive neutron tomography study of a Leeuwenhoek microscope.^[22] One image in particular shows a Stong/Mosolov-type spherical lens with a single short glass stem attached (Fig. 4). Such lenses are created by pulling an extremely thin glass filament, breaking the filament, and briefly fusing the filament end. The nuclear tomography article notes this lens creation method was first devised by Robert Hooke rather than Leeuwenhoek, which is ironic given Hooke's subsequent surprise at Leeuwenhoek's findings.