LessWrong 2.0 Reader

I don't think the negative correlation between doctors and patients opinion of the drugs is surpassing.

Rat poison would probably get a low score from both doctors and patients. However, nobody is being prescribed rat poison as an anti-depressant so it doesn't appear in your data. Why is nobody being prescribed rat poison? Well, doctors don't prescribe it because they think its a bad idea, and patients don't want it anyway.

In order for any drug to appear in your dataset somebody has to think it is good. So every drug should have net-approval from at least one out of the doctors and patients. Given this backdrop a negative correlation is not surprising.

Thanks Gunnar, those sound like reasonable guidelines!

• The common space was still usable by other housemates, but it felt a bit cramped, and I felt more internal pressure to keep it tidy for others to use (while in my own space I feel more comfortable leaving it messy for longer). Our housemates were very tolerant of having kid stuff everywhere, but it still seemed suboptimal. 
• The fridge, laundry area and outdoor garbage bins were the most overloaded in our case, while the shed and attic were sufficiently spacious and less in demand that it wasn't an issue. Gathering everyone for a decluttering spree is a noble effort but a bit hard to coordinate. I found it easier to declutter by putting away some type of object (e.g. shoes) and have people put theirs back (to identify things that didn't belong to anyone). The fridge was often overfull despite regular decluttering - I think it was just too small for the number of people we had, and getting a second fridge would take up extra space. 
• I would add general disruption of child routines in addition to sleep (though sleep is the most important routine). Surprisingly, it was not as much of an issue the other way around, e.g. the baby was quiet enough not to bother the housemate next door at night. The 3 year old running around the living room in the morning was a bit noisy for the people downstairs though.

I wonder if everyone excited is just engaging by filling out the form rather than publicly commenting.

Man, I can’t believe there are no straightforwardly excited comments so far!

Personally, I think an institution like this is sorely needed, and I’d be thrilled if Lightcone built one. There are remarkably few people in the world who are trying to think carefully about the future, and fewer still who are trying to solve the alignment problem; institutions like this seem like one of the most obvious ways to help them.

Also matters what the experience is like. High prestige university allows you to get a job at a high prestige company. Low prestige university makes it a lot harder to get considered for jobs at high prestige firms. You'll have to outperform high-prestige peers by, say, 50% to get noticed if you want access to the same sort of opportunities they get access to via prestige.

(To be clear, I'm not in favor of this sort of thing, I just want to be realistic about it and I wish someone had been real with me about it when I was 17 trying to decide where to go to college. Don't rely on your ability to outperform others. Take every advantage you can get and then leverage them to do even more!)

And this really makes it hard for me as an "indie hacker" to do what people often recommend: solve one very specific problem. Find a niche. Something narrow and focused. "Zoom in". This works in areas where problems have low cohesiveness, but not when they have high cohesiveness.

It's really hard to solve a lot of problems well. The value of an all-in-one product is that you really don't need anything else. Everything it doesn't do, or doesn't do well enough to meet your needs, is a ding against it, and it's relatively easy to peel off specific problem spaces from the general problem of basic business operations needs.

Here's a specific example from the company I'm part of (Anrok). We sell a product that aims to replace a SaaS business's need for an accounting team to be compliant with sales tax & VAT. We compete against both all-in-one solutions from billing systems that offer to also solve this problem because the problem is hard and they are trying to solve at least two problems: billing and tax. Since we just try to solve tax, we can do a better job of it. We also compete against accounting firms who try to offer you all-in-one services, but again same problem, plus the cost is a lot higher because they use humans to do what we do with code.

So I wouldn't worry too much about the existence of everything apps. It takes a long time to build a good everything app that actually does "everything" within its domain (think Salesforce or Jira), and even then "everything" is often achieved via outsourcing some of the everything to third parties who build plugins and integrations.

I was hoping people other than Jessica would share some specific curated insights they got. Syndiffeonesis is in fact a good insight.

I finally wrote one up! It ballooned into a whole LessWrong post.  [LW · GW]

I completely agree that Oliver is a great fit for leading on research infrastructure (and the default thing I was imagining was that he would run the institute; although it's possible it would be even better if he could arrange to be number two with a strong professional lead, giving him more freedom to focus attention on new initiatives within the institute, that isn't where I'd start). But I was specifically talking about the "research lead" role. By default I'd guess people in this role would report to the head of the institute, but also have a lot of intellectual freedom. (It might not even be a formal role; I think sometimes "star researchers" might do a lot of this work without it being formalized, but it still seems super important for someone to be doing.) I don't feel like Oliver's track record blows me away on any of the three subdimensions I named there, and your examples of successes at research infrastructure don't speak to it. This is compatible with him being stronger than I guess, because he hasn't tried in earnest at the things I'm pointing to. (I'm including some adjustment for this, but perhaps I'm undershooting. On the other hand I'd also expect him to level up at it faster if he's working on it in conjunction with people with strong track records.)

I think it's obvious that you want some beacon function (to make it an attractive option for people with strong outside options). That won't be entirely by having excellent people which will mean that internal research conversations are really good, but it seems to me like that was a significant part of what made FHI work (NB this wasn't just Nick, but people like Toby or Anders or Eric); I think it could be make-or-break for any new endeavour in a way that might be somewhat path-dependent in how it turns out; it seems right and proper to give it attention at this stage.

NOTE: this is CANCELLED for the lack of interest.

Maybe it could be FLCI to avoid collision with the existing FLI.