What are some concrete problems about logical counterfactuals?

post by Chris_Leong · 2018-12-16T10:20:26.618Z · score: 26 (6 votes) · LW · GW · 1 comment

This is a question post.


    13 jessicata
    1 avturchin
1 comment

Logical counterfactuals are key to Functional Decision Theory and last I heard still an unsolved problem. Unfortunately, I am still rather confused about what exactly we are trying to solve. The only concrete problem I know of in this space is the 5-and-10 problem. But as far as I know, this is solved by writing programs that immediately cause a paradox if they ever discover their output. So presumably there are some unsolved concrete problems that relate to logical counterfactuals?

Edit: I should mention my post on the Cooperation Game [LW · GW] as an example. Plus the further work section of this slideshow.


answer by jessicata · 2018-12-16T22:13:07.328Z · score: 13 (4 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)
comment by Chris_Leong · 2018-12-20T00:03:15.550Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

So most of the problems seem to be related to making UDT work with logical uncertainty?

comment by jessicata (jessica.liu.taylor) · 2018-12-20T00:38:38.416Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

Some of them specifically require updateless reasoning, some don't or might not. All of them involve logical uncertainty.

answer by avturchin · 2018-12-16T16:35:39.127Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

I encountered something like the 5-and-10 problem in the art market. If I like a picture of the artist A, and I know that I have a good taste, it is an evidence that artists A is good, so I should buy it. The more good art I found, the better is my taste.

Now repeat it 100 times and you end buying pile of garbage.

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