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comment by Zac Hatfield-Dodds (zac-hatfield-dodds) · 2021-05-18T03:00:22.843Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Quoting myself last week [LW(p) · GW(p)]:

I don't want our analysis to lose sight of the fact that facing these tradeoffs is stupid and avoidable, and that almost every country could have done so much better. Avoiding outbreaks is so much cheaper and easier than dealing with them that the choice to do so should have been overdetermined. ...

It's much better to be careful instead of exponential growth than after it. The policy playbook we learn from COVID should be how and why to avoid such situations, not how to live with for extended periods.

You don't need infeasible surge pricing for the-right-to-buy-groceries, and you don' t need to fine-tune the number of people at live entertainment, if you competently follow a (any!) coherent cost-benefit model because you'll keep and there won't be a pandemic in the first place.

Australia mostly did this. New Zealand did this. Taiwan did this. There's no secret! It's not even difficult!.

Replies from: ChristianKl
comment by ChristianKl · 2021-05-18T09:07:27.708Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

There's a flu pandemic every year and we don't seem to have good mechanisms to put that   currently. Given that the OP talks about "all respiratory diseases, not just Covid" saying that there would have been a better solution for Covid isn't enough. 

Replies from: kithpendragon, gabriel-holmes
comment by kithpendragon · 2021-05-18T09:44:44.110Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It's always looked to me like we mostly don't care about the flu. If we wanted to slash flu cases we could very easily do so. Look at the 2020-2021 flu season vs. any other year. Thanks to Covid precautions, regular flu numbers went from hundreds of thousands to just hundreds of hospitalizations. I'd guess a 60% chance of those numbers returning to "normal" within 5 years, and 90% within 10, even though we know now that simply wearing masks and washing hands can reduce them by several orders of magnitude.

And I'll bet that frustrates a lot of medical professionals!

Replies from: AnthonyC
comment by AnthonyC · 2021-05-18T10:34:46.756Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I second that we don't really care about the flu. Setting aside the question of how much of a mistake that is, I'd just point to that we simply haven't tried to throw extra money at, and remove regulatory barriers from, using mRNA tech to make a better flu vaccine that can be rapidly updated without needing to predict what strains will be common, months in advance, and may be able to include a lot more strains at once. We still haven't committed to doing that or even made any significant public noises about it, now that we have so much more data on how well mRNA vaccines work.

That said: I hear Moderna is hoping to combine an annual flu vaccine with a covid booster, which is a great idea, but I hope that won't be the only option for either. I stopped getting the conventional flu vaccine after about 20 consecutive years where I was sick for about 10 days after doing so. Since then (and before that) I've gotten the flu and, for me at least, the actual flu's symptoms tend to be less severe than that. Covid has not given me confidence in Moderna's and Pfizer's ability or interest in properly calibrating dosing to minimize unnecessary vaccine side effects.

Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T10:47:45.097Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm somewhat optimistic that we could see a combined flu/covid/RSV/hMPV shot in 2022.

comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T09:53:13.275Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Thank you!

comment by ChristianKl · 2021-05-18T09:03:42.461Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It seems like you want to introduce a new tax that's more difficult to administer then the existing taxes. The problem with our tax laws is that they are too complicated and not that they aren't complicated enough. 

Complicated tax schemes to incentivse behavior you want to see sound generally good in theory but are bad in practice and that's why out tax code is as bad as it is. 

comment by Stuart Anderson (stuart-anderson) · 2021-05-18T04:21:45.223Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

-

Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T09:52:06.194Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The beauty of this is that it doesn't have to be the government implementing surge pricing. It can be the store owner etc.

Replies from: AnthonyC
comment by AnthonyC · 2021-05-18T10:47:19.497Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I expect any private business that implemented surge pricing on things like food without government backing would face serious repercussions - social and legal. Most people have no understanding of, or interest in, economics, and hate surge pricing, and see at as price gouging. Being in some sense wrong about it is irrelevant - the accusations, and public pressure, and possible legal defense costs if the gouging accusations make it that far, would get most businesses to back down.

Also: not everyone has much choice about when they shop. I know at my local supermarkets the residents of nearby assisted living facilities and senior centers get bussed in once or twice a week at fixed times - a vulnerable population on fixed incomes. They, as well as people working multiple jobs juggling child care and public transit schedules, have the least choice and the least spare resources to pay higher prices. 

That said, I think free delivery (or at least curbside pickup) will be commonplace long before the next pandemic. I doubt Amazon will stop with just Whole Foods for groceries, and others will need to follow suit. Covid is already accelerating this trend.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2021-05-18T15:39:13.196Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The owner of a shop has freedom to have limited or extended openness times? And I think anti-surge pricing in the form of happy hours is already a thing.

I think the bigger issues is that there is no private motive to get the public good. Customers would need to actually pay more for less-infectious experience like they pay more for prime time clubbing in order for there to be a private motive.

Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T15:52:02.484Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Surcharges to reduce capacity could be non-taxable.

comment by sxae · 2021-05-18T12:43:04.361Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This idea seems like it has several large issues:

  • It disproportionately targets people who are poor and directly ties how much risk you can take on to how much disposable income you are able to leverage. This doesn't seem particularly just, especially considering these are the people who have been most disadvantaged by coronavirus so far.
  • Big taxes like this can be used in a myriad of ways, but whether they ever are used in those ways is another question entirely. That's just not typically how modern governments handle tax revenue. And are the things you list really not done simply because we don't have the money? I don't think so.
  • You're placing a big inefficiency on industries already operating at fairly small margins in dire straits. The live music industry does not need any more weight on its back, it's already broken at this point. Many pubs and restaurants are only barely hanging on. If your intention is to drive the final nail into the coffin of many of these industries, this is a good way to do so.
  • People are strongly incentivised under this scheme to obfuscate, minimise or completely hide their social gatherings. When you force people away from things like nightclubs, pubs, bars, or festivals you just shift that activity into a gray area. People still act and organise to fulfill their social needs, and they're always going to be better at getting around any monitoring you build than you will be at building it.
Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T14:53:15.042Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I am not saying it needs to be a tax.

comment by benjaminikuta · 2021-05-18T02:04:43.800Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

As a neoliberal, I love this. 

I bet the only problems would be practical. 

comment by TAG · 2021-05-18T17:54:21.803Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The extra money raised from surge pricing can be reinvested as follows:

  1. It can be used to provide incentives for people to get vaccinated (enough to offset the extra surcharges).

You can do that more efficiently by requiring a vaccination to attend the event. With the additional advantage of not having unvaccinated people mixing.

Replies from: gabriel-holmes, gabriel-holmes, TAG
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:45:52.697Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

It's also not clear whether separating unvaccinated from vaccinated people makes anyone safer. I'd much prefer to be somewhat exposed now that I'm vaccinated. Who knows if boosters will be readily available in August, when my six months are up?

Replies from: TAG
comment by TAG · 2021-05-18T18:50:09.514Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Separating unvaccinated people from each other helps them.

Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:53:52.695Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

By that rationale we should also exclude people who aren't capable of generating antibodies despite having gotten vaccinated. Do you really want to go there?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/18/immunocompromised-coronavirus-vaccines-response/

Replies from: TAG
comment by TAG · 2021-05-18T18:57:45.323Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Whoever we are, we might or might not, but that isn't going to happen without a coordation mechanisn.

comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:32:00.507Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The government doesn't have the manpower to police that effectively. And it never will. That's the opposite of "efficient." The people with the necessary skills to enforce it have lots of other, higher priority things to police, like making sure that cars are roadworthy and gas isn't being watered down.

As an example, in the early days of the pandemic when we were trying to make sure bars complied with social distancing rules, NYS started trying to recruit police officers to go around checking venues. They offered a lot of overtime. Guess how many people at my agency signed up for that detail?

NONE.

comment by TAG · 2021-05-18T18:45:12.869Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The government doesn’t have the manpower to police that effectively.

Which government? If your comments are US specific, please say so.

In any case, you are taking it for granted that regulations about event pricing can be enforced, somehow.

Replies from: gabriel-holmes, gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:50:40.538Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm also not advocating regulations for event pricing. I'm suggesting it as a system for managing risk, for those who choose to do so.

Replies from: TAG
comment by TAG · 2021-05-18T18:53:21.788Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

So there's a bunch of people who won't voluntarily take the vaccine in order to save their lives, but will voluntarily an expensive social event in order to be bribed into...

Sorry. I give up. I can't steelman this

Replies from: gabriel-holmes
comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:54:52.770Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

By all means, find another person's blog and delete your comments, buddy.

comment by tkpwaeub (gabriel-holmes) · 2021-05-18T18:47:33.463Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

No level of government in the US has the resources to police vaccination status and have money left to do anything else.