H5N1 - thread for information sharing, planning, and action
post by MathiasKB (MathiasKirkBonde) · 2023-02-05T12:44:51.333Z · LW · GW · 8 comments8 comments
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comment by DirectedEvolution (AllAmericanBreakfast) · 2023-02-05T14:20:30.286Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
We could start a set of more fine grained prediction market questions around H5N1. For example, I proposed one on Metaculus last night asking if another mink farm will be culled in 2023 due to an H5N1 outbreak.
Replies from: nathan-morrison, MathiasKirkBonde↑ comment by NMorrison (nathan-morrison) · 2023-02-05T17:37:07.009Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I work at Metaculus and would like to approve this question, but I don't see it on our end at the moment. Could you please double-check to make sure it was submitted and isn't still in draft form, or add me (NMorrion) as a co-author so I can get it running for you?
Replies from: AllAmericanBreakfast↑ comment by DirectedEvolution (AllAmericanBreakfast) · 2023-02-05T17:57:23.992Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Didn't realize I'd only had it saved in drafts. I just submitted it.
Replies from: nathan-morrison↑ comment by NMorrison (nathan-morrison) · 2023-02-05T18:26:15.741Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thank you. I approved the question and it will launch tomorrow.
In addition to the question linked in the original post, here's one other related question that is live on Metaculus:
↑ comment by MathiasKB (MathiasKirkBonde) · 2023-02-05T15:35:35.352Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
if it makes it easier, I can add the questions to manifold if you provide a list of questions and resolution criteria.
Replies from: AllAmericanBreakfast↑ comment by DirectedEvolution (AllAmericanBreakfast) · 2023-02-05T15:40:03.956Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
OK, I'm out of stamina at the moment to rewrite the question I submitted to metaculus but I'll send questions your way if/when I get them written down,
comment by jowen · 2023-02-05T13:03:17.170Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Just want to flag that oseltamivir is not a vaccine, it is an antiviral drug.
Replies from: MathiasKirkBonde↑ comment by MathiasKB (MathiasKirkBonde) · 2023-02-05T13:25:00.073Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
thanks for pointing that out, I've added a note in the description