0 What would happen if we saw life as a gradient of probabilities?

post by Gabriel Brito (gabriel-brito) · 2024-12-01T15:13:55.699Z · LW · GW · 6 comments

Contents

      What Would Happen if We Saw Life as a Gradient of Probabilities?
        The Problem
      The Solution: ESTIMAT
        Traditional
        ESTIMAT
      Why It Matters
    Applying the Model: Channel Mapping (CM) and Dynamic Multilevel Process (DMP)
    Superfunctions in Action
    Validation
    Criticisms and Challenges:
  Conclusion
        Get Started
      Join the Conversation!
      Next Steps
  References:
None
6 comments

 

A General Vision of a Methodology for Motivation through Information Theory

ESTIMAT is a framework in development designed to map, plan, and self-evaluate by leveraging personal peaks of motivation, grounded in principles of information theory.

Motivation drives human progress, yet many frameworks fail to address real-world complexity. What if we tried a new approach? This essay introduces a foundational model inspired by Fermi estimation—a tool for approximating under uncertainty—to redefine how goals are understood and pursued.

This broad overview sets the stage for future detailed explorations, moving from binary thinking to a gradient, reflecting the richness of human cognition.

What Would Happen if We Saw Life as a Gradient of Probabilities?

Life can be understood as a system of decisions shaped by probability gradients, where every action reflects a range of dynamic possibilities. This perspective, inspired by information theory and Fermi estimates, simplifies complex decisions into actionable patterns.

For instance, consider deciding to learn a new language. Instead of framing it as "success or failure," you evaluate probabilities: How likely are you to enjoy the process? How often could you practice? Gradients like these enable steady, meaningful progress.

The key is anchoring your system to moments of peak motivation, aligning gradual growth with your deepest values.

The Problem

In our information-saturated world, optimizing cognitive performance is crucial. We intuitively recognize moments of peak motivation and focus, yet replicating these states consistently remains a challenge.

Traditional self-improvement models often fall short because they:

• Focus on abstract ideals over actionable insights.
• Rely on top-down changes, neglecting individual variability.
• Lack grounding in biology and cognitive science.
• Provide limited measurable outcomes.
• Struggle with long-term implementation.

The Solution: ESTIMAT

Instead of starting with ideals and imposing behaviors, ESTIMAT builds self-improvement from the ground up:

Traditional	ESTIMAT
Virtues/Identity → Behaviors → Processes	Information Processes → Patterns → Virtues/Identity
Focus: Abstract ideals	Focus: Observable patterns
Static Goals	Dynamic patterns
Linear path	Systematic growth

 

ESTIMAT offers a systematic approach that aligns with how our brains naturally process information. By starting from fundamental cognitive patterns—how we estimate, evaluate, and act—it provides a foundation for measurable and replicable personal growth.

This framework turns abstract concepts into practical routines, much like "Fermi Estimation" simplifies complex problems. It enables a bottom-up structure where observable patterns give rise to virtues and identity, making self-improvement both actionable and sustainable.

This model reflects how the brain naturally perceives, evaluates, and acts, aligning with neuroscience, evolutionary principles, and modern decision-making frameworks.

Why It Matters

ESTIMAT transforms self-improvement into a replicable and measurable process, blending introspection with rational analysis. Viewing life as a "gradient of optimizable states" enables personal growth with clarity and measurable benchmarks.

For instance, identifying your Peak Motivation Moments serves as a foundation for crafting effective daily routines, while Channel Systems structure your environment to reinforce those routines.

 

PRACTICAL APPLICATION
 
Looking for innovative ways to boost your productivity? Share your input by completing this quick form (here) or explore the following real-life example to see the Superfunction framework in action.

Motivation Peak: A Morning of My Best Teaching

Context:
As a lead instructor in a military training program, I found myself in a challenging situation. Although I was outranked by two Army sergeants assisting me, the responsibility for the session’s success rested on my shoulders. During one class, the students became distracted, and my superiors suggested traditional military discipline (push-ups and running) to restore focus. Instead, I stood firm, emphasizing that the priority was first-aid training, not physical fitness—despite visible disapproval from a sergeant.

The next day, I faced another critical moment during CPR training. To make the lesson engaging, I suggested using chairs to improve technique efficiency and humorously remarked, "The movement is sensual, the movement is sexy." This prompted an immediate challenge from an older officer—later revealed to be a general—who worried the comment might offend female soldiers (2 women among approximately 30 men).

Resolution:
Rather than becoming defensive, I saw this as a teaching opportunity. I invited one of the female soldiers to demonstrate her learning through a Socratic dialogue:

• Me: "What’s your first action when you find an unconscious person?"
• Her: "Check for environmental risks."
• Me: "Then?"
• Her: "Call for support."
• Me: "Next?"
• Her: "Assess the victim."

I concluded by asking if she felt offended by the earlier remark. Her response:
"This was the most educational class I’ve had in the army."

Outcome:
The general revealed his rank, praised the unconventional teaching method, and awarded me with:

• Peace Warrior Badge
• Official Military Cover
• Battalion-Wide Recognition Ceremony

Applying the Model: Channel Mapping (CM) and Dynamic Multilevel Process (DMP)

Reflecting on this peak moment, I analyzed the adjustments required:

• Individual Changes (X=8): Maintaining confidence, adapting my tone, and applying humor strategically.
• Environmental Changes (Y=4): Modifying teaching tools and fostering a safe, engaging environment.

This 2:1 ratio shows that my focus leaned heavily on individual adjustments.

We can see that in this table below:

Next, I assessed which levels of the Dynamic Multilevel Process (DMP) played the most significant roles:

• Elemental: 2
• Emotional: 8
• Social: 10
• Intellectual: 7

The moment was strongly influenced by social interactions, leading me to emphasize deliberation and cooperation within the social domain.

 

We can see that in this Diagram Venn below:

Superfunctions in Action

To replicate such Moments of Peak Motivation, I applied Empathized Deliberation, focusing my efforts on aligning actions with the environment.
 We can see that in this Diagram Venn below:

By combining the Channel Mapping (CM) ratios with the priorities identified in the Dynamic Multilevel Process (DMP), I calculated the level of dedication needed to achieve more Moments of Peak Motivation (MPM). The multiplication aligns the contributions of both frameworks, providing a proportional breakdown of individual (X) and environmental (Y) adjustments across various domains.
This proportion clarifies how to prioritize goals, routines, and tasks effectively and offers a measurable function for time allocation. The results are summarized in the table below:

Visualizing the Priorities for Actionable Goals

This breakdown translates directly into actionable steps. For example:

• Biological: Allocate 5% of effort to recognizing signals like hunger (Store) and 2% to executing habits like exercise (Discard).
• Stimulus: Focus 20% on journaling or self-reflection (Self-Observe/Transform) and 10% on energizing activities like play (Self-Motivate/Play).
• Relational: Dedicate 25% to brainstorming and deliberate planning (Empathize/Deliberate) and 12% to team collaboration (Communicate/Cooperate).
• Informational: Prioritize 17% for long-term strategic planning (Analyze/Predict) and 9% for tracking metrics (Simplify/Track).

 

• Relate to MetaVirtues (MP): To stimulate myself, I now focus on virtues or identities to develop, such as being Empathetic and Altruistic. Studies suggest it's more effective to adopt an identity, like "I am a healthier person," rather than focusing solely on a goal, such as "I will run a marathon." Research by Oyserman and James (2009) highlights that connecting goals to identity increases the likelihood of sustainable behavior change (Possible Selves: From Content to Process, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology) Some MetaVirtues:

  

And I can see a level of practice this virtue in my life:
 

So its is the map that we walk:
 

And I can refine this with more Moments of Peak Motivation, and evaluate more precisely with a Scientific Personal Journal and tracking and give values to my goal, routines and tasks that I will detail more in another texts.

What were the conditions? What patterns or factors enabled such high performance?
Using this peak moment as a reference, you would map out the directions of your information; the levels Intellectual, Social, Emotional, and Elemental factors that contributed to it. Then, you could plan concrete steps—goals, routines, and tasks—to replicate those conditions and create more such moments of optimal flow.

1. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM)
- Your personal reference point of maximum effectiveness
- Serves as a calibration baseline
- Provides concrete examples for replication

2. Channel System (CS)
- Manages information flow through channels
- Acts like a cognitive irrigation system
- Directs energy and resources efficiently

3. Dynamic Multilevel Process (DMP)
- Understand your priority levels across Emotional, Social, Intellectual, and Elemental domains.

- Elementary (core stability)
- Emotional (energy states)
- Social (interactions)
- Intellectual (complex processing)

4. Superfunctions Matrix (SF)
- Integrates multiple processing levels
- Optimizes patterns for maximum performance
- Enables systematic replication of success

5. MetaVirtues (MV)
- Inspirational adaptable names derived from identities
- Relate with powerful images
- Defining personal values from observed patterns
- Creates emergent value systems organically
- Enables systematic virtue development
- Builds identity through proven patterns

Validation

1. Scientific Foundation
- Based on Information Theory principles
- Aligned with neurobiological research
- Follows evolutionary patterns

2. Practical Implementation
- Measurable outcomes
- Replicable results
- Adaptable to different contexts

3. User Experience
- Progressive learning curve
- Clear feedback mechanisms
- Sustainable implementation methods

Criticisms and Challenges:

• Some may view this approach as overly reductionist.
• May require deeper exploration of philosophical underpinnings.
• Needs further empirical testing across varied populations.

What do you think? Does the bottom-up approach resonate with your experience? Share your thoughts and critiques in the comments!

Learn the Framework
I will details the framework and offer free coaching with practical mapping in a series of six publications will guide you through the core components of ESTIMAT. The detailed interactions belong in the subsequent articles and each article will be linked below as they are released:

1. Methodological Foundations [LW · GW]
   Applications of Fermi estimation and information theory in personal development.
2. Referential Boundary Moments [LW · GW] 
   Using these as Upper and Lower Boundaries, we aim to create actionable strategies for identifying, analyzing, and optimizing personal motivation.
3. Channel Mapping [LW · GW]
   Balancing individual growth and environmental adaptation.
4. Multilevel Processing
   Navigating emotional, social, and intellectual dimensions for self-improvement.
5. Superfunctions
   Connecting cognitive tools to evolutionary human functions.
6. MetaVirtues
   Developing values and identity based on observable data and patterns.

Apply the Framework
Once you've explored the framework, you can begin applying it to your life. Use your Estimat Map and related tools to:

1. Set Goals
   Reflect on Moments of Peak Motivation as your reference point for personal growth.
2. Design Routines
   Create strategies to reproduce and amplify these Peak Motivation Moments.
3. Identify Tasks
   Align daily actions with intrinsic motivations and external goals.

4. Track Your Progress
   Leverage scientifically validated methods to measure and refine your personal development.

   Upcoming detailed explorations will address:
   1. Advanced component integration
   2. Implementation protocols
   3. Measurement systems
   4. Emergency procedures
   5. Framework validation methods

Conclusion

This text was a general vision of a series of publications that introduces ESTIMAT, a framework that combines the art of self-knowledge ("stimat") with the science of life estimations ("estimat"). 

The relationship between Dynamic Levels and Superfunctions and Virtues mirrors the quantum model of atomic structure - a powerful parallel that illuminates a gradient of probabilities for both function and form:

 

Get Started

• Create Your Estimat Map Here

 

Join the Conversation!

• How can this framework be improved?
• Are there specific challenges you'd like ESTIMAT to address?
• Share your feedback and experiences applying the concepts in your life.

 

Next Steps

1. Methodological Foundations [LW · GW]
   What If We Rebuild Motivation with the Fermi ESTIMATion? [LW · GW]
2. Learn and mapping: Channel Mapping, Multilevel Processing, Superfunctions and MetaVirtues
3. Apply the Framework: Set Goals, Design Routines, Identify Tasks, Track Your Progress

References:

Oyserman, D., & James, L. (2009): Possible selves: From content to process. Publicado en Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

Patrick, H., & Canevello, A. (2011): Creating sustainable goals through self-determined identities.

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