A short talk on SB and friends

post by Jon Zero (jon-zero) · 2020-11-29T21:07:40.653Z · LW · GW · None comments

This is a question post.

Hi there.  First post; be kind please.

I'm looking to present a short talk on the Sleeping Beauty problem in our maths/computing group at work.  So far, I've just sketched an incomplete outline:

By this point, the audience (maths/computing folk, remember) will be starting to conclude that type-2 uncertainty is just a load of old touchy-feely nonsense and that all the world needs is cold hard classical probability.  I would like to counter that on two fronts:

  1. Though we didn't achieve it when scratching the surface of the SB & AMD problems, consistent theories of rational decision making that include type-2 uncertainties do exist, such as XXX.
  2. There is a philosophical need for such theories (you cannot just rely on cold hard classical probability), as shown for example by YYY.

I'm stuck for what to say on XXX and YYY.  Can you help?

Comments also welcome on appropriate terminology (not "type-2"!) and anything else that strikes you as being egregiously wrong.  Please do not assume any prior knowledge.  Thank you.

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