What is your coronavirus prediction for Israel?

post by Yair Halberstadt (yair-halberstadt) · 2021-06-17T19:10:49.697Z · LW · GW · No comments

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Israel was the fastest country to vaccinate and has the most people fully vaccinated of any country. It has reached vaccine saturation where there are very few people left to vaccinate (it's currently vaccinating 12 - 16 year olds but at an imperceptible rate). It's cases were falling until recently, and almost all restrictions have now been removed.

What happens to Israel is important, as it offers an early glimpse on whether vaccinations alone can be enough to make covid die out.

Recently cases in Israel have stopped falling, and even started rising. Besides for the usual sources, there's some very good quality data available on https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general (warning - Hebrew, but google translate does an okish job).

Do you predict this is just noise, or if cases will continue to rise? How high and will it stop life getting back to normal, or will it become just another disease, like the seasonal flu? Is this related to covid variants, removal of restrictions, international travel, or something else?

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