aumann-s-agreement-theorem

·

Aumann's agreement theorem, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge [? · GW] of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians [? · GW], share common priors [? · GW], and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

Related tags and wikis: Disagreement [? · GW], Modesty [? · GW], Modesty argument [? · GW], Aumann agreement [? · GW], The Aumann Game [? · GW]

Highlighted Posts

• The Modesty Argument [? · GW]
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
• The Proper Use of Humility [? · GW]
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman [? · GW] (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement [? · GW] by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo [? · GW]

External Links

• A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

See also

• Disagreement [? · GW]
• Modesty argument [? · GW]
• Aumann agreement [? · GW]
• The Aumann Game [? · GW]
• Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"

References

• (PDF)
• (PDF, Talk video)