Shut up and do the impossible!
Half-way through reading this post I had decided to offer you 20 to 1 odds on the AI box experiment, your $100 against my $2000. The last few paragraphs make it clear that you most likely aren't interested, but the offer stands. Also, I don't perfectly qualify, as I think it's very probable that a real-world transhuman AI could convince me. I am, however, quite skeptical of your ability to convince me in this toy situation, more so given the failed attempts (I was only aware of the successes until now).