Comment by bilbo on It’s Probably Not Lithium · 2022-06-29T04:47:50.635Z · LW · GW

I wonder if one reason SMTM might be advocating improbable theories, and not accepting bets, is because they are intentionally persuing improbable theories. Their post on scurvy seems to make the point that you need to check things even if they seem improbable, as the truth sometimes turns out to be something that seemed improbable.

I (perhaps charitably) assumed they did not believe the lithium theory per se, but thought it was worth a more detailed look - having previously argued that the bar for that should be lower than others think.

I thought the lithium theory and the potato diet were just two of many possible things they might be looking into, with the idea being that they advocate a broader search generally.

Comment by bilbo on Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality · 2012-09-19T14:41:42.610Z · LW · GW

Exactly what I was thinking.