Posts

Astrobiology IV: Photosynthesis and energy 2016-10-17T00:30:46.138Z
Astrobiology III: Why Earth? 2016-10-04T21:59:57.716Z
Astrobiology, Astronomy, and the Fermi Paradox II: Space & Time Revisited 2016-03-10T05:19:29.263Z
Astronomy, Astrobiology, & The Fermi Paradox I: Introductions, and Space & Time 2015-07-26T07:38:53.498Z
Irrationality Game III 2014-03-12T13:51:00.555Z

Comments

Comment by CellBioGuy on What made the UK COVID-19 case count drop? · 2021-08-05T07:21:42.349Z · LW · GW

I wish I had recorded my thoughts the week before they removed most of their remaining restrictions.  They were something like "only 20% of adults haven't been vaccinated, they're working down the age distribution, and they're infecting as fast as the winter.  At some point, they just have to run out of people."  I thus vaguely expected things to drop, especially as they had turned around before.

One, they're just running out of susceptibles, two, a shorter serial interval means that everything up and down happens faster and the R value is likely not as higher as it would be if you did not take this into account, and three... a good bet has been to expect authorities to be wrong.

Comment by CellBioGuy on The Myth of the Myth of the Lone Genius · 2021-08-03T05:08:37.765Z · LW · GW

I don't even understand what Thiel is trying to say, which is pretty typical.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game · 2021-07-30T22:43:28.755Z · LW · GW

The 'not a half life' graph is an IgM graph, not an IgG graph.  IgG is the one produced in large amounts for long periods, IgM is always transient.  When anyone is talking about half lives, they're probably talking about IgG.

The 'effectiveness drop' data from Pfizer, from what I understand, is confounded by changes in the dominant lineages infecting people over time.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Is there a theoretical upper limit on the R0 of Covid variants? · 2021-07-30T22:36:06.514Z · LW · GW

Endorsed by someone who has been reading the literature obsessively.  The NTD can still get some mileage but most of the really interesting stuff has happened.

Comment by CellBioGuy on AlphaFold 2 paper released: "Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold", Jumper et al 2021 · 2021-07-27T04:47:55.443Z · LW · GW

Not yet, I used the Google project where they are posting predicted structures of every known human and yeast gene.

https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/

The example that made me laugh:

https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/entry/Q59W62

Comment by CellBioGuy on AlphaFold 2 paper released: "Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold", Jumper et al 2021 · 2021-07-24T15:10:22.856Z · LW · GW

Personally, I can confirm that every yeast protein I work with that does not have a structure, when fed through alphafold produces absolute garbage with mean predicted errors on the order of ten or twenty angstroms and obvious nonsense in the structure.  

Granted I work with a lot of repetitive poorly structured proteins which, in as model-system of an organism as yeast, are the only ones without structures and someone has to get unlucky... but still.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/15: Rates of Change · 2021-07-20T01:38:23.876Z · LW · GW

Honestly I think it's quite the opposite.  There is no particular reason that lineages that escape immune reactions would be more likely to be driven into existence in a population largely vaccinated or largely infected, and you don't talk about this in the context of people who have been naturally infected.  

We are pulling the inevitable, the time that everyone has immune memory, closer in time to the present and ensuring that we get there with fewer rounds of viral replication in the mean time.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/15: Rates of Change · 2021-07-16T15:01:25.858Z · LW · GW

Could the fact that both anecdotes involve large groups simultaneously support the model of correlation and clustering presumably from single extremely infectious sources?

Combined with observations of significantly decreased contagiousness from vaccinated people I would expect such events to become much rarer when completely naive people are rare.  Consider the dynamics here, ~6 apparently infected in one event and then only two of those continuing to pass it on at all, a sub-replacement chain in that different context.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-15T20:56:33.963Z · LW · GW

I would VERY strongly argue this place also lacks brakes.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/15: Rates of Change · 2021-07-15T18:57:34.510Z · LW · GW

There have been some reports that it's not necessarily just the R value that is changing for the delta lineage, but also maybe a faster serial interval.  Both of these would result in faster spread, but only the R change would affect the immunity you need to damp spread, the interval just means everything happens faster.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352931648_Transmission_Dynamics_of_an_Outbreak_of_the_COVID-19_Delta_Variant_B16172_-_Guangdong_Province_China_May_-_June_202 

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/15: Rates of Change · 2021-07-15T18:37:31.728Z · LW · GW

It should be noted, for your contagion calculations, that people infected through immune memory are almost certainly not NEARLY as infectious to others on average as completely naive people who are infected.  

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34250518/

Israeli healthcare workers who are vaccinated who test positive have a much decreased viral RNA level in their samples, circa a factor of thirty, with the difference increasing as time from vaccination increases.  There is a wide range but the whole range moves down so way fewer people will have the obscene viral levels that can do things like infecting sixty people in a room all at once.  They also go from 80% showing up positive on an antigen test to 30% showing up positive on an antigen test - which has been a reasonable binary proxy for infectiousness in the past.

This makes sense.  You never hear about 60 people all getting the flu at once in one place except in very special circumstances (things like an airplane sealed for two hours without air circulation and filtration), presumably because everyone has at least some anti-flu memory even if it isn't good enough to completely stop everything in its tracks.  The disease dynamics when there are lots of totally naive people running around is going to be completely different from the dynamics when everyone has memory, be it from vaccines or infection.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic · 2021-07-03T07:13:27.092Z · LW · GW

Everything said here is wrong, I am pretty sure.

Comment by CellBioGuy on What precautions should fully-vaccinated people still be taking? · 2021-06-30T05:08:49.445Z · LW · GW

I am super skeptical of that whole brain damage thing.  Brains change, from all kinds of things.  I can't help but notice that everywhere they see statistically significant differences is downstream of smell and taste, and actually closely resembles previously described brain changes in people with chronic rhinitis that blocks the sense of smell through ordinary means.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-23T21:55:23.586Z · LW · GW

FWIW I expect the equilibrium severity in the absence of continued immunization and presence of continued drift whenever it manages to slip through preexisting memory to be rather worse than the other human coronaviruses, at least for a while.  This bugger has a clutch of fancy accessory proteins that help hide from and screw up immune reactions, and for other reasons is very good at forming syncytia and infects such a wide range of cell types.  But NOTHING like what happens when people get it never having seen anything like it.  Think closer to flu on the cold and flu spectrum.  But we deal with that, and the antigenic drift after this explosive adaptation-to-humanity phase should be slower than we are dealing with now.  All the evolution we have seen lately is about becoming better able to infect human cells, with mild immune evasion from previous memory a side effect.  It is even possible that once the primary selective pressure is for immune evasion, the infectivity declines again due to the different set of trade-offs encountered - the best analysis I have seen of the D614G mutations that took over the world in the first half of 2020 suggests that it increased the avidity of the protein to human cells at the expense of making the S1 domain more open to neutralization and immune deactivation by immune memory, but this did not matter because all the infections were directed towards those with no memory.

Decent possibility that over the coming decades the fancy accessory proteins (which are very necessary for infection in bats, less so for humans) start falling to bits due to Muller's Ratchet, as mutations that degrade them hitchhike along for the ride with spike and nucleocapsid mutations that actually allow infection of those with immune memory.  This already sort of happened once in the Alpha lineage, where accessory protein ORF8 that hides T-cell epitopes from the immune system broke but got dragged along for the ride linked with a spike that was better at attacking human cells.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem · 2021-06-23T21:46:25.477Z · LW · GW

Most of what is said about all of that suggesting it is suspicious is truly 'not even wrong'.

Insertions and deletions happen all the time rather than being some kind of rare freak event.  They can be random gobbeldygook or they can be short sequence insertions from something else.

Lots of other coronaviruses have insertions and deletions at the same spot rather than it being something rare, just the creation of this particular type of cleavage site is rare.  However, this cleavage site is known to increase host breadth and cell type breadth, so if you are conditioning on seeing something that jumped species it's more likely.  Other less closely related viruses have furin sites, but the SARS-like viruses are severely undersampled.

I honestly don't even know what the codon choice people are arguing.  You are creating a new insertion, not looking at the rest of the genome, why would the content of the rest of the genome be relevant to the odds of using a particular codon?  Also, these codons are not selected against, they have kept up fine in the human population.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Am I anti-social if I get vaccinated now? · 2021-06-15T02:37:36.319Z · LW · GW

The other side is not using that reasoning.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 6/3: No News is Good News · 2021-06-14T21:36:42.597Z · LW · GW

Because there is no evidence that they mean any of that.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid vaccine safety: how correct are these allegations? · 2021-06-14T19:14:14.301Z · LW · GW

The mechanisms stopping growth in vitro at obscene concentrations I agree are probably not operative in vivo, or at the very best not in the same way.  However there are other bits of data regarding the drug as an immunomodulator in other viral infections, and this virus in particular has much of its pathogenesis having to do with badly regulated immune reactions.

Basically I am at the awkward position where I think the risk to potential reward ratio is favorable and that good research is needed while thinking most of the existing research is super shoddy.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid vaccine safety: how correct are these allegations? · 2021-06-13T21:48:04.123Z · LW · GW

While I agree that there is insufficient attention paid to ivermectin as a possible treatment in Western nations, I have seen far too much shoddy and conflicting data in the studies that are brought forward proposing it as prophylaxis and think the hype is a spiral that has amplified nonsense into prominence.  People LOVE the idea of a panacea.  While there is quite possibly something interesting going on there it has been hyped to the moon and back in a way it should not be.

The animal data I have seen that I trust the most (since it avoids many of the pitfalls of observational trials, and few people are doing randomized trials that are actually good and not shoddy as hell after chloroquine sucked all the oxygen out of the room) suggests there could be something there, but not in a way that would block epidemics.  Animals that are infected and then dosed have no difference in viral levels but recover their sense of smell significantly faster and when you take tissue samples the levels of inflammatory and tissue-destroying signaling molecules are lower while the ones that are more classically associated with antiviral responses are higher.  Leans me towards the idea that it could decrease severity and odds of falling into downwards spirals.  I have been following the in vitro work on this from  the beginning and my conclusion is that you're probably looking at immunomodulatory effects that can help you not fall into the pathological attractors, and deal with long infections better, rather than doing anything about viral binding or replication, if any of it pans out.  

See, as an example, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.21.392639v1.full

This being said, given the safety profile of the drug I say the risk to reward ratio is pretty good if you pay close attention to contraindications and I see no reason for it to not be used and studied more.

With regards to repurposing drug studies being almost impossible, I am much much more angry that there are no good studies, and no studies at all outside India, for indomethacin.  A much more promising and well defined antiviral mechanism there against cytoplasmic RNA viruses via host factors that works STUNNINGLY well on canine intestinal coronaviruses in vivo, and sars and sars-2 in culture, and when you dig carefully through the literature being already on it by prescription is associated with much lower covid hospitalization risk.

Comment by CellBioGuy on The Cult Deficit: Analysis and Speculation · 2021-06-13T21:31:25.769Z · LW · GW

I should try to dig up an essay I remember reading a few years ago, that argued that American social innovation and engagement regularly swings back and forth between the religious and the political on generational timescales...

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem · 2021-06-10T18:07:02.303Z · LW · GW

I continue to state that most of what is being said by absolutely anyone about furin (and synonymous codon choice, in this case) to support lab ideas is simply nonsense.  There is nothing particularly interesting at all about the genetics.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Should we vaccinate against PGBD5 which codes for a transposase? · 2021-06-09T20:38:53.233Z · LW · GW

Dunno!

Sounds like something to look for antibodies (or more functionally, T-cells) in the population at large and see if they are correlated with autoimmune diseases, and sounds like something to look for a mouse equivalent of and see what happens when you immunize them against a sometimes-expressed transposase.

 

They're also never exactly at high levels.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-05T01:30:51.226Z · LW · GW

I actually care a lot less about 'never getting it' now, since I will never have to deal with that first burn though me when I have never seen anything like it at all since I am vaccinated.  Any memory is good, even in the face of drift or waning.

I couldn't tell you if there will be updated boosts over time.  If so, they'll certainly help...

Comment by CellBioGuy on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-04T15:24:43.934Z · LW · GW

I expect it to return as an endemic seasonal virus, especially in areas of low vaccination uptake, with continued antigenic drift allowing occasional mild infection of those with immune memory after enough time has passed.  It's the first infection of a naive set of lungs that matters though.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Why has no one compared Covid-19 and Vaccine Risks? · 2021-06-04T15:10:00.005Z · LW · GW

If you aren't vaccinated you WILL be infected eventually.  

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 6/3: No News is Good News · 2021-06-04T00:38:16.143Z · LW · GW

Indeed, it does not.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Are there reasons to think mixing vaccines is dangerous? · 2021-06-04T00:33:59.426Z · LW · GW

Opposite.  Them getting to your immune system from slightly different 'directions' likely increases effectiveness slightly, especially for the adenoviral vector vaccines where vector immunity might be an issue.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown · 2021-05-28T06:09:23.203Z · LW · GW

I am pretty sure the FDA thing is just simply completely factually wrong, actual fake news in the original sense of the phrase.

 

It is a small change that only applies to bulk drugs in compounding pharmacies and is being widely misinterpreted...  near as I can tell they are reviewing four supplements including melatonin for inclusion on the 503A Bulk List, which would make it legal for compounding pharmacies to use them, with that long list shown being things they are continually looking at for ADDING TO AUTHORIZATION FOR COMPOUNDING PHARMACIES. List two (not pictured, later in the document) is for things that are anti-recommended for compounding pharmacy approval, and  list 3 is things that were recommended but they don't think they have enough evidence for approving for compounding pharmacies.  No banning of supplements anywhere, nothing going away at all in any way shape or form in that document.  In fact, it means the OPPOSITE of what is being implied here!

N-acetyl cysteine does not appear anywhere in that document and appears to be an entirely separate and self-contained matter that refers to that substance and that subestance alone.  Seems to have been going on for a year now having to do with them enforcing something that was technically true but unenforced before, that it was marketed as a drug decades ago before people started selling it as a supplement.  Stupid and definitely an error but not a new regulation and companies are covering their butts.

Nobody is regulating parsley, sesame seeds, ribose sugar, and yeast as drugs.  This list should have been a dead giveaway and I am flabbergasted that anyone can take it seriously as some kind of ban list.  The referenced twitter accounts appear to be simply forwarding falsehoods and some seem to be kind of... interesting.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown · 2021-05-28T03:14:06.061Z · LW · GW

That... seems like almost precisely the opposite metaphor one would use to compare to reality?  Instead we are looking at something that happens naturally ALL THE TIME and you need special effort to sometimes maybe replicate if you really wanted to?

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown · 2021-05-27T17:25:26.272Z · LW · GW

A hell of a lot of what they say about furin is simply wrong.  Insertions and deletions happen ALL THE TIME in nature and while rarer than SNPs are not uncommon, around the cleavage site loop there are other indels in related viruses, the furin site is DECIDEDLY suboptimal for cleavage such that all the fun lineages that are more contagious are optimizing it and creating actual canonical sites rather than something just good enough, it is generated out of frame in in a way that no sane biologist ever would, and the glycosylation pattern nearby weakly suggests it appeared in the context of an actual immune system rather than cell culture.  

The alignments they point to arguing for other differences in the cleavage sites in other viruses being due to SNPs rather than insertions are laughable, and from people who I have found to have a poor grasp of the underlying science.

On top of all that when conditioning on something that successfully changes species you will enrich for things that broaden their tropism, which that kind of cleavage site will do, so of course things that are rarer but helpful will pop up more than if you were looking at the space of all possible mutations without conditioning.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown · 2021-05-27T16:36:45.329Z · LW · GW

There is absolutely nothing about the biology of the virus that suggests laboratory anything.  Anyone who says it does does not know what they are talking about.  If anyone says something about furin being suspicious or indels being unlikely, or recombination patterns being odd, they can safely be ignored and their opinions discounted.  Yes, this includes David Baltimore.

One cannot exclude the possibility that someone had a stock in a lab being studied somewhere and it got into a lab worker by sheer bad luck.  That would look quite similar to the utterly normal zoonotic spillovers that happen all the time, especially for something like this that is a tenth as deadly as SARS classic such that the early thin transmission chains are effectively invisible to public health infrastructure.

SARS classic has infected lab workers before, but as something that caused a previous global issue it was being studied by many people in many places while in the scenario of a novel zoonotic transfer having occurred in a lab, you almost certainly just have one poorly characterized sample of something with no published sequence data someone happens to be growing for a quick one-off experiment spilling over such that the rate would presumably be much much lower.  

I see no reason to think that this is particularly likely over and above utterly normal outside-world zoonotic spillover that happen all the freaking time (several percent of Chinese villagers tested for antibodies against SARS-like viruses that live near bat caves have them in previous literature), especially since the invisibility of early thin overdispersed transmission chains mean the first big outbreak could occur somewhere quite different than the location of the initial zoonotic event.  Even SARS-classic had its first big internationally-noticeable explosion happen thousands of miles away from the initial site of zoonotic spillover, and if it were not as deadly as it was that initial spillover in southern China could potentially have gone unnoticed outside of local authorities and you could've been talking about SARS as originating in Hong Kong.

All this being said given the state of recombinant DNA technology and its power I do see the value in most virology work using reconstituted sequence in pseudovirus systems rather than infectious particles.

Comment by CellBioGuy on If individual performance is Pareto distributed, how should we reform education? · 2021-05-25T08:09:27.954Z · LW · GW

Returns on performance being pareto distributed is emphatically NOT the same thing as performance being pareto distributed.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Get your gun license · 2021-05-21T14:08:23.716Z · LW · GW

Optionality, to echo Nassim Taleb?

Comment by CellBioGuy on What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity? · 2021-05-21T06:26:28.137Z · LW · GW

Or you are seeing the working out of the logistic function that takes shape in so many systems.

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-05-14T04:51:38.341Z · LW · GW

I propose very few details and a low probability (and as I add more details from 'someone burned a lot of carbon' I give even less), and the scenario outlines above total carbon release could be split between an artificial release and later positive feedbacks (seafloor clatherate and the like).  As for no trace, finding bedding planes within the PETM itself is a celebrated event in many places and trying to hit a bedding plane within a short period is hard, and I would need to look into the work of a scientist I really like about erosion rates across continental crust to see what the odds of a carbon deposit near the surface now being near the surface millions of years ago would be...

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-05-14T04:50:36.441Z · LW · GW

I should start up that astrobiology and evolutionary biology blog again shouldn't I...

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-05-14T04:47:24.255Z · LW · GW

My brain goes interesting places from here.

Would there be wild descendants of the soybean all over the world if we disappeared, can the domesticates go wild without us?

The PETM was associated with a mixup of plant and animal ranges, but it is generally explained as being the result of the 5+ degree C temperature spike shifting all their ranges poleward and this then allowing them to wind up at different longitudes when they shifted back towards the equator, plus the general chaos of a minor extinction churning the ecosystems.

If we go with the least likely part of the scenario mentioned above (antarctic habitat), Antarctica and South America and Australia all were faunally related after the breakup of Gondwana...

Comment by CellBioGuy on Peekskill Lyme Incidence · 2021-05-13T06:19:22.925Z · LW · GW

Indeed the wasting disease first exploded in the west, and then nucleated new thick clusters near the great lakes and most recently in PA/MD/VA (which has been spreading fast).  The other places it is found outside the major clusters don't seem to be expanding the way they are in those places.

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-05-12T07:51:37.861Z · LW · GW

Add on the probability of "intentionally allowed to commit suicide" on top of that and the total odds seemingly become high indeed.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Biological Holism: A New Paradigm? · 2021-05-12T04:51:15.115Z · LW · GW

FWIW I find the book by Smith and Morowitz to be staggeringly illuminating.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Biological Holism: A New Paradigm? · 2021-05-10T04:15:30.994Z · LW · GW

I personally know two of the scientists spoken of in this post, and agree that greedy reductionism has a tendency to overshadow very interesting phenomena.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Peekskill Lyme Incidence · 2021-05-10T04:13:48.672Z · LW · GW

I find it fascinating that the modern range of lyme disease overlaps with the range of the chronic wasting prion disease of deer.  The two large clusters of lyme in North America overlap with the more recent two clusters of wasting disease (later spread than the first major cluster further west).  This suggests to me that there's a common factor driving the spread of both, probably something about messed up forest ecology.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension · 2021-05-10T02:52:16.621Z · LW · GW

Do you have a good explanation to Moderna's market price drop?

 

1 - it was tiny compared to recent changes

2 - the efficient market hypothesis is quite quite false.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 4/29: Vaccination Slowdown · 2021-04-29T17:08:03.912Z · LW · GW

destroyed normal life in substantial parts of the United States indefinitely

 

Huh?  How does this follow?  This mostly is in places with higher infection rates overall, and once most of the population is infected or vaccinated then all desire for mitigation by anyone goes away.  It's just about getting to the final state with more or less suffering.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Modern Monetary Theory for Dummies · 2021-04-27T21:39:54.673Z · LW · GW

This misses the role of private banks in creating currency.  Every time they issue debt the amount of circulating currency goes up by an identical quantity.

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-04-15T21:12:18.322Z · LW · GW

I think there could be a 5% chance that the paleocene-eocene thermal maximum 55 million years ago was the result of a prior global industrial civilization.  Conditional on that being the case, high probability they were birds and a decent possibility they lived on Antarctica.

We are an existence proof for smart industrial animals being a thing that can happen on Earth.  We are not an existence proof of smart industrial animals lasting for geologically long periods of time.  There is not necessarily reason to think that just because you are successful in an epoch that you burn the black rocks that you will continue to be so.

As you go back in time the fossil record degrades drastically and many species at this time are known from single digit numbers of specimens.  The PETM resembles what we are doing to the earth system entirely too closely, from a large release of biogenic carbon within a few thousand years to the spike in mercury levels to ocean anoxia.  At the time primates did not exist in significant diversity and any that did exist were tiny, but birds, whose brains differ from the default tetrapod brains in ways quite similar to the way that of primates do and allows very easy increase in neuron number, did exist in profound diversity. 

We are tropical animals and spread across the entire world because we came from the hottest place on Earth and you can keep us warm just by wrapping us in clothes in a low-tech way.  If somebody evolved on the coldest parts of Earth, you need high technology (refrigeration) to survive anywhere else and they could be limited to polar latitudes, including the only continent we have almost no geological record of and has been poorly explored - Antarctica.  Antarctica and nearby continents also bore multiple great-ape-sized flightless bird lineages at this time, and was temperate while Canada was full of Amazon-style rainforest and the equator bore stifling hot supertropics.

Corollary:  Industrial civilization is an unstable self-limiting phenomenon and will be gone in centuries to millennia.

Comment by CellBioGuy on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-04-15T19:02:19.683Z · LW · GW

A significant set of possible models of such phenomena result in them being irreducibly personal and subjective, hampering detailed analysis.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection · 2021-04-15T09:15:45.646Z · LW · GW

The molecular details are not of a type that is caused by the pill.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection · 2021-04-13T09:15:34.633Z · LW · GW

These blood clots are unusual and triggered by immune-mediated platelet activation, and happening at higher rate than the base population in those subpopulations.  It's real and not the pill.

 

It's also lower than the risk of the pill.

Comment by CellBioGuy on Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection · 2021-04-10T23:10:50.373Z · LW · GW

No sane major corporation is going to have a batch of 15 million doses and not test it to see if it is the thing it was meant to be before shipping it out, and having something in there that wasn’t supposed to be there should get found many times over by the tests they’d run in all worlds. Ordinary corporate reputation and liability are more than enough to motivate catching this error. 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24785997/

A company bought by Bayer shipped out many doses of blood products that they knew were contaminated with HIV.