Comment by cheerfulwarrior on What are effective strategies for mitigating the impact of acute sleep deprivation on cognition? · 2019-04-02T07:13:34.420Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
skeptical that it's placebo-like, as you seem to be indicating

Just to clarify my point: I was suggesting it was more like a confirmation bias than placebo. In my case at least, I used to think that sleep deprivation lowered my performance, and then started believing there was no correlation at all (although lack of sleep still affected my mood, so it was undesirable). However, I have little confidence in that belief, and even if I was more certain about it, it's just an anecdote.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on What are effective strategies for mitigating the impact of acute sleep deprivation on cognition? · 2019-04-01T19:46:38.933Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Methods I've personally found useful for improving productivity when temporarily my cognitive ability or conscientiousness is lowered, not necessarily due to sleep deprivation:

  • Selecting from my TODO list tasks that are either non-demanding, or very exciting
  • Sitting next to a big window and spending a lot of time people-watching. I don't understand why it worked, but I noticed it would put me in a rhythm where I would make slow but consistent progress with my work.
  • When a lot of mental energy needs to be mustered (and so the above two methods are not an option), cut out all the stimulation: put away my phone; close all the non-relevant web browser tabs; put on noise-cancelling headphones with pink noise playing; go to a separate room and/or use big objects to restrict my field of vision to nothing but my workstation. Also, make sure that I won't be disturbed for the next couple hours at least: prepare a glass of water, go to the toilet, make sure my co-workers understand this "do not disturb" mode.

You seem to assume that your lowered ability is caused by sleep deprivation. Is that an assumption? If so, I would encourage you to track your sleep quality and your cognitive performance and see if they really correlate, if you can think of a way to do it.

My fully subjective impression is that my insomnia never impacted my cognitive performance. I used to stress about it impacting my bodybuilding. Then I started believing that the impact of my sleep deprivation is minimal, if any, and that new belief probably helped me improve quality of my sleep.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-31T17:35:56.758Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Sweet, thank you! I will definitely try it out.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-26T16:03:37.344Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks. I will be on the lookout for relevant writings. I'm slowly going through Yudkowsky's books/posts, so I'm sure I will stumble on it sooner or later.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-23T09:30:51.757Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That's a very good point. What do you think about predicting events on which I might still have an impact? Those are some of the most important forecasts for me: I will decide whether to attempt something based on my predicted probability of success. But then my forecast might affect that probability which makes the whole thing much more complicated.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-21T10:04:17.561Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks. This is all very relevant. And no, there is no backstory, at least not that I shared anywhere.

You might consider reading "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," by Philip Tetlock. Or go to the Good Judgment Project web site and watch the 5-part Superforecasting master class.

Yes, I read "Superforcasting". I didn't know they had masterclass and will look it up. I suspect their teachings will be somewhat less useful for predictions of personal importance: different biases will be at play here. But it should be worthwhile to watch it anyway.

First, the question has to pass the clairvoyant test.

Actually, I think if you are going to assess your own predictions, you can afford the luxury of being a bit less specific, especially if the prediction is made in the short-term. For example, consider a made-up question:

"Will Adam be able to get back to cycling within a month [after a recent accident]?"

If Adam resumes cycling but it causes him considerable pain, I know that's not what I intended when asking the original question. On the other hand, if Adam recovers fully but starts playing rugby instead of cycling because he discovers he enjoys it more, I know the answer to the intended question is "yes". (The imprecise part of the question here is "be able to", but as long as I can reliably recall the intention when writing those words, they cause no loss of precision.)

Second, you might want to have some scheme for Bayesian updating your forecast.

Hmm. For now I was planning to make my predictions once and forget about them until the outcome is known. I'm not sure I want to spend more effort on them, at least not so early into the project.

And then you'll want to use Brier Scores (or something like them) to assess your accuracy.
If you know R, there's actually a Brier score function you can use. But I can't imagine it's very difficult to set up in Excel.

Brier score would be great at telling me how accurate I am, but not what mistakes I'm making, at least based on my very limited understanding of the metric. As a basic analysis method, I was planning to group my predictions by the forecast probability (e.g., 0%-10%, 10%-20%, ... ranges, or maybe ranges 1pp wide at the extremes and growing exponentially towards the centre, that would probably make more sense), and simply chart them grouped by tag. I must admit, my knowledge of statics has always been very poor, so I'm sure there is some better analysis/visualisation methodology.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-21T09:43:20.022Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you! As I hinted in my response to Nebu above, I can see there are some personal predictions as well. I have a couple doubts about using it, though:

  • I wouldn't want to publicly predict very personal events, even if it's pseudonymous, done through VPN and marked as non-public. Just knowing that such a sensitive information is sitting on a server somewhere would make me uncomfortable.
  • When analysing predictions, grouping them by tags is a necessary feature for me. For example, I suspect I'm too pessimistic about my personal finance, but too optimistic about interpersonal relations. In fact, this impression is what got me started on this idea in the first place. I would consider implementing this feature in PredictionBook, but then I would want to do that through my regular github account, so my identity could be linked to my predictions even easier.
  • There doesn't seem to be any way to export your predictions for a more advanced analysis.

Overall, though, this is a great project and very relevant. I'm just being very picky.

Comment by cheerfulwarrior on [Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts · 2019-03-21T09:35:52.898Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Spreadsheet sounds "good enough" if you're not sure you even want to commit to doing this.

Yes, exactly. I dropped the idea of writing my own software because I realised that would be overcommitting too early.

I would like a site that lets me see other people's personal predictions (really, just their questions they're prediction an answer to -- I don't care about their actual answers), so that I can try to make the same predictions about my life.

You might like to search by tag "Personal" on the PredictionBook linked below by habryka: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=predictionbook.com&q=personal&x=0&y=0

[Question] Tracking accuracy of personal forecasts

2019-03-20T20:39:14.895Z · score: 8 (6 votes)