Comment by cian on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-06T16:51:11.369Z · LW · GW

Can anyone help me to understand these graphs? The 'deaths per day' graphs seem to incorporate actual data up to April 1st and to be projections from there, which suggests that they are using the actual death rates to calibrate some parameters of their model. But the 'hospitalization' graphs don't seem to incorporate any actual data, and seem to be very different from the reality: for example, for April 1st (when the models were last updated), the "all beds needed" and "ICU beds needed" numbers for New York State are 50,962 and 10,050; but it looks like the actual number of people in hospital for Covid in NYS on that date was about 12,500, with about 3,000 in the ICU (source: 'NYS total hospitalized' graphs here []). Does that mean that they are not trying to fit their model to actual hospitalization data at all? If so that seems like a problem: hospitalization rates should be much better than death rates for estimating what effect social distancing measures are having, since there is so much time between infection and death.