Comment by colonelDensity on Great minds might not think alike · 2021-01-04T21:44:22.560Z · LW · GW

I really liked the post. I just wanted to add a reference that could be fun to read through. Some economists showed that overconfidence is logically totally reasonable even with so called rational actors. 

https://www2.um.edu.uy/dubraj/documentos/apparentfinal.pdf

I haven't read this paper in awhile, however, the gist is basically, if you receive positive signals on your quality, Bayesian updating mechanically makes your estimates "over-confident".