Comment by Combifusion on Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark · 2012-04-03T08:45:34.693Z · LW · GW

I intuitively wanted to see if the combination 8-6-4 or 6-4-2 would be acceptable, without actually making a guess at the rule. I looked at the two acceptable answers and the one unacceptable answer and thought, okay, but that doesn't prove a rule. The rule the experiment wants you to think about is a pattern like 2-4-6-8-10, so let's see if something disproves that pattern. Would 6-4-2 be acceptable? Obviously, it wouldn't. If I wasn't under the influence of hindsight bias I might continue on to try and see if different intervals were not acceptable I.e. 2-2-2 until I could differentiate between ascending order and the intervals, but knowing me and the likelihood of anyone actually guessing the rule I would put that as a very low probability. Still, this strikes me as the kind of thing where it's best to avoid bringing up a solution-- get more information, and study and discuss the information, and then try to solve it. If people did this perhaps they would come closer to getting it right?

Haha... And before I read this blog I thought I was irrational. Probably still am.