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"David -- if the money had been more important to me than playing out the experiment properly and finding out what would really have happened, I wouldn't have signed up in the first place. As it turned out, I didn't have spare mental capacity during the experiment for thinking about the money anyway; I was sufficiently immersed that if there'd been an earthquake, I'd probably have paused to integrate it into the scene before leaving the keyboard :-)"
I don't dispute what you're saying. Im just hypothesizing that if a lot of money were at stake (let alone the fate of humanity) the outcome would be different. But dont get me wrong, as i said before
"holding the position that no AI could convince you let it out requires a huge amount of evidence comparable to the huge amount of possible AI's, even if the space of possibility is then restricted by a text only interface"
this is roughly the reason why I believe the AI could get out of the box, not the the AI-box experiment.