Posts

I'm Sorry Fluttershy 2021-05-22T20:09:27.342Z
Small and Vulnerable 2021-05-03T04:55:52.149Z
People Will Listen 2021-04-11T16:51:10.467Z
Violating the EMH - Prediction Markets 2021-03-28T04:05:09.184Z
deluks917's Shortform 2021-03-27T14:57:57.956Z
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence 2021-03-18T18:38:30.881Z
Group house norms really do seem toxic to many people. 2021-01-11T23:42:36.239Z
Bet On Biden 2020-10-17T22:03:19.144Z
What should experienced rationalists know? 2020-10-13T17:32:32.388Z
Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines 2020-07-29T19:21:31.641Z
Construct a portfolio to profit from AI progress. 2020-07-25T08:18:05.633Z
How much does neatly eating matter? What about other food manners? 2019-06-11T19:40:45.539Z
Rational Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-05-02T18:19:47.821Z
Rationality Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-03-21T14:12:26.432Z
A Concrete Multi-Step Variant of Double Crux I Have Used Successfully 2018-03-15T01:26:16.028Z
Correct Models Are Bad 2018-03-04T16:51:25.919Z
Rationality Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-02-12T13:18:39.909Z
Rational Feed: Last Week's Community Articles and Some Recommended Posts 2017-10-02T13:49:05.937Z
Rational Feed: Last Week's Community Articles and Some Recommended Posts 2017-09-25T13:41:55.117Z
Rational Feed 2017-09-17T22:03:25.134Z
Rational Feed 2017-09-09T19:48:18.079Z
Rational Feed 2017-08-27T03:49:15.774Z
Bi-weekly Rational Feed 2017-08-08T13:56:20.160Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-07-24T21:56:46.003Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-07-09T19:11:21.767Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-06-24T00:07:03.768Z
Concrete Ways You Can Help Make the Community Better 2017-06-17T03:03:33.317Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-06-10T21:56:38.374Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-05-28T17:12:57.118Z
A Month's Worth of Rational Posts - Feedback on my Rationality Feed. 2017-05-15T14:21:32.995Z
I Updated the List of Rationalist Blogs on the Wiki 2017-04-25T10:26:51.234Z

Comments

Comment by deluks917 on Are bread crusts healthier? · 2021-06-18T17:35:40.974Z · LW · GW

I usually cut the crust off my bread! It is way tastier that way. 

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-06-16T02:10:34.566Z · LW · GW

These leverage tokens do not behave how they should. Very few if any people should use them. But Binance did not lose use funds. If you were doing perp-spot arbitrage on Binance you were not at any risk.

note: the future-spot arb has indeed dried up.

Comment by deluks917 on Why do patients in mental institutions get so little attention in the public discourse? · 2021-06-12T20:38:33.199Z · LW · GW

People, by default, do not care very much about the suffering of the powerless. This is a very general pattern: De facto torture of the old and dying (Who by Very Slow Decay), Animal in factory farms, prisoners in solitary, Scott's rant about school being child prison, etc. 

There is no real need to explain a specific example of a very general trend. In fact it is the opposite that needs explanation. We actually have made progress in various ways (for example slavery is greatly reduced, though the USA still has prisoner slaves). But compassion toward the powerless is a deviation from the default. We need to fight for it. The fight has not been won in the USA.

Comment by deluks917 on Violating the EMH - Prediction Markets · 2021-06-07T22:28:12.187Z · LW · GW

Update. I exited the oly bet 2 days ago at 87.2 percent. Just letting people know.

Comment by deluks917 on The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening · 2021-05-26T02:17:40.259Z · LW · GW

I am holding some eth. Hope this timeline happens. But color me skeptical. 20k eth seems doable though. I think we probably cross 20k if eth 2.0 and optimism both perform well.

Comment by deluks917 on We should probably buy ADA? · 2021-05-25T01:11:33.465Z · LW · GW

Cardano has been very Too weak Too Slow. They have a giant valuation but they still haven't launched smart contracts! The coin launched in 2017, so they had plenty of time to work. Despite this they have the fourth-highest valuation! (excluding stablecoins). This situation seems crazy to me on fundamentals. Of course, they probably will pump once smart contracts launch. But despite having most of my net worth in crypto I am not buying Cardano.

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-05-24T07:21:05.345Z · LW · GW

Explicit YOLO ALL IN numbers for my biggest bags. Until we hit these numbers I am not shoving everything:

Sol - 8 

Matic - 0.3 

FTT - 7.5 

ETH - 500 

BTC - 12K

Remember in 2018 ETH went 1400->89 and it wasn't all downhill. Lower highs, lower lows. Be ready for the opportunity.

Comment by deluks917 on New Magic Post: The Pro Tour Was Magic · 2021-05-22T16:16:39.646Z · LW · GW

The early Pro Tour seemed amazing. When I followed the pro your ten years ago it was still extremely interesting. But I started interest years before the MPL. They have continually de-emphasized draft. They killed Rochestor draft in ~2005. Then they got rid of the all draft pro tours in 2008. In 2020 they completely removed draft from 'players tours'. 

De-emphasizing draft was bad enough. But the real death kneel was when they moved the Pro/Player's Tours so far back from set release. I am not sure exactly when they started doing this but it feels like it was a few years ago. For a long time, the PT was around two weeks after the set released. Players were incentivized to form testing houses. Usually, the format was still fresh by the time the Pro Tour rolled around. As I recall sometimes sets were even delayed a little on MTGO which helped a bit. If anything the PT should have been a little closer to set release but ~2 weeks worked well. Now the Pro Tours are usually stale formats. Sometimes exciting stuff comes out. But ever since they moved the PTs so far back I have lost interest.

For many reasons, I don't play serious magic. But I have been a fan and player for many years. I am very sad about what happened to the Pro Tour.

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-05-22T05:13:42.123Z · LW · GW

I have been saying this on other forums (where more people listen to me) for over a week but I might as well post it here too:

I have been pushing crypto quite hard. I do NOT recommend buying crypto until momentum reverses. If taxes and bankroll were not relevant I would say buying and selling are probably close to equivalent with a slight preference to selling. Of course, this means I put a decent probability on a quick recovery but I am not betting on it. Make sure you have at least some dry powder for the deep bear market if it comes. I hope you took some profits on the way up to fund this. But if not sell off your momentum plays and keep some post-tax money to buy the real dip.  Otherwise, hold. Maybe momentum will reverse but it's dangerous to buy this dip unless you have a ton of dry powder. You need to conserve for the real winter if it comes. Almost no one is capable of continually buying the 'dip' with their paychecks for months while losing money. Preserve your USDC.

Good luck friends!

Comment by deluks917 on Thoughts on Ad Blocking · 2021-05-06T04:21:47.485Z · LW · GW

The people who make ad blockers have improved my life enormously. It's worth noting Facebook timeline ads are not particularly annoying. Maybe forcing sites to mask their ads as content is a good thing.

Comment by deluks917 on Death by Red Tape · 2021-05-01T21:13:49.904Z · LW · GW

It only assumes there are a lot of domains in which you would be happy to make progress. In addition success is at least somewhat fungible across domains. And it is much easier to cut red tape once you already resources and a track record (possibly in a different domain). 

Don't start out in a red-tape domain unless you are ready to fight off the people trying to slow you down. This requires a lot of money, connections, and lawyers and you still might lose. Put your talents to work in an easier domain, at least to start.

Comment by deluks917 on Death by Red Tape · 2021-05-01T19:54:49.306Z · LW · GW

If you are a smart person I suggest working in domains where the regulators have not yet shut down progress. In many domains, if you want to make progress most of your obstacles are going to be other humans. It is refreshingly easy to make progress if you only have to face the ice.

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-04-26T02:07:53.637Z · LW · GW

Everyone shits on younger people (say 14-22). But the younger people I interact with have a lot of great ideas and good perspectives. I am always happy to have a chance to learn from them. Why so much hate? 

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-04-24T03:18:38.896Z · LW · GW

Crypto is not doing the hottest. But another part of the story is BTC is losing dominance. Though who knows what is about to happen.

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-04-17T05:40:48.379Z · LW · GW

Use Authy, not Google authenticator. GA not supporting any sort of backups is a huge problem.

Comment by deluks917 on People are gathering 2 million USD to save a kid with a rare disease. I feel weird about it. Why? · 2021-04-17T01:12:16.034Z · LW · GW

The magnitudes are much smaller on both sides of a recent situation. My father died three weeks ago. The family somehow ended up spending over 40K on death expenses (funeral, mausoleum slot, flowers, etc). My mom ended up spending six hundred and fifty dollars on a single rose arrangement in the shape of a big heart. The time to convince my family of effective altruism is not right after my father died. But I found spending so much money on a dead man, or more charitably expensive rites for the living, horrifying to see up close. Six hundred and fifty dollars is around the average monthly salary in Kenya. We could have really helped someone out sending that money overseas. Never mind what forty thousand dollars could have been used for.

Comment by deluks917 on The consequentialist case for social conservatism, or “Against Cultural Superstimuli” · 2021-04-16T18:23:12.317Z · LW · GW

Years of accumulated experience and metis point the other way, at least for this audience. Anyone who has spent time in rationalist or rationalist adjacent spaces knows that a huge percentage of rationalists* are trans. After many years of being an active rationalist* I literally know dozens of trans people in or adjacent to the community. If a rationalist is struggling with whether to transition they should try transitioning. A huge number of rationalists think trying hormones was the best decision they ever made, very few seriously regret it. If a rationalist tries transitioning I strongly predict they will think it was a good decision. Though there are some people who have regrets the expected value is very good.

I will note that the people who do best don't get too preoccupied with philosophical debates about the true nature of transition. The extremely simplistic ideas like 'transwomen are women, transmen are men'** do great however. Rationalists who give transition a real shot are usually happy they did so. Taking HRT for a month or two is mostly reversible but you don't have a time machine. You cannot get back the years you spent miserable.

 

*For simplicity, I am just going to say rationalist. But I am including anyone active in spaces adjacent to the community such as effective altruism. I am not going to count people who are only weakly involved, for example, they just read SSC.

**No intent to erase non-binary people!

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-04-14T17:35:38.194Z · LW · GW

The coronavirus response has been so bad I no longer doubt many Sci-Fi premises. Before I often said to myself "you have tech that can do X and you still have problem Y. Ridiculous!". But apparently, we can make a coronavirus vaccine in two days. But we still had over a year of lockdowns and millions of deaths. One in six hundred people in the USA have died of the virus but we blocked a vaccine because one in a million people who take it MIGHT develop treatable blood clots. 

My standards for 'realistic' dysfunction have gotten a lot lower.

Comment by deluks917 on People Will Listen · 2021-04-12T03:04:06.055Z · LW · GW

There are several groups now because people wanted to keep some topics seperated. Sadly I don't think any of them are open to the public.

Comment by deluks917 on People Will Listen · 2021-04-12T02:44:14.578Z · LW · GW

Which epistemic values? I am posting these trades in public (not always on lesswrong itself but in adjacent spaces which are easy enough to check if needed). If they blow up I will suffer the reputational consequences. The inverse should occur if they work out well. Do you want to bet on whether FTX.com losses a substantial amount of user funds in the next year? What odds do you give?

The opportunities don't seem gone to me. Though I doubt we see anything as good as 2011 bitcoin. Many rationalists bought Solana around January 7th when it unlocks. I posted about this on the EA investing group in early January (before the unlock). It is up more than 10x. That's not 250x but it's something. The arbitrage opportunities I discuss are live right now. 

You claim there are these huge counterparty risks but you have no presented any data substantiating your claims. I would estimate the expected loss rate in decentralized finance is probably between 1.6%-2.75% yearly. This is based on actual empirical data. The loss on a centralized is dramatically lower. Probably a tenth of that. Exchanges do not commonly lose user funds. They have been safe for many years. You should be more concerned with getting hacked than with counterparty risk from a Cefi exchange. As I said before the risks would have to be quite large not just present to compensate for the returns. I see no evidence that they are.

I believe scholarship is one of the twelve virtues. Please teach me this value. Please show me some kind of credible analysis that counterparty risks are extremely high (as in 10%+ a year)? Many people I know will be very interested if you can. I will share your findings with many interested parties.

Comment by deluks917 on People Will Listen · 2021-04-11T22:46:58.584Z · LW · GW

1 - The historical returns would obviously have been ludicrously high. I assume advice will be worse going forward. There has not been all that much investing advice on lesswrong and some of it was to buy crypto relatively early. If some of your investments 200-2000x you don't need to be right about much else. And it is not like all the other advice would have gone terribly. Tech stocks are doing great. Some of the advice was also boring stuff like 'buy index funds'. Do you think there are hundreds of examples of investment ideas on lesswrong that went to near zero? Which examples are you thinking of? Why do you think the normal investment ideas even underperformed the S&P500 (or whatever your favorite index is).

2 - It does not seem like a 'really hard problem' to me. I don't think I am especially talented. I know many rationalists who are doing much better than I am. The reason you are hearing from me is that I am the one willing to break the norm against posting such threads. Now is an unusually easy time to make money but rationalists are also making good money on things like prediction markets. If someone is a smart rationalist it seems to me they can pretty reliably find a way to 'beat the market'. 

It's worth noting that I talk to many people who are actually professionals. They agree the trades I discuss are good. I agree it is a hard problem for most people. But the idea that good rationalists cannot make money trading part-time seems based purely on theory. Experience, over quite some time in many cases, begs to differ.

I also disagree with the framing. In many cases the community agreed the advice was good but just failed to act!

Comment by deluks917 on Monastery and Throne · 2021-04-07T00:40:04.421Z · LW · GW

A good friend of mine, who I know is making absurd returns on altcoins, is still bummed about that losing his entire investment on that options trade. Losing 100% is pretty demoralizing I guess. 

Comment by deluks917 on Learning Russian Roulette · 2021-04-04T02:43:46.591Z · LW · GW

That is not a similar situation. In the AI situation, your risks obviously increase over time. 

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-04-03T04:23:14.294Z · LW · GW

If you are trying to get people into an investment don't mention the price you got in at. Mentioning it just makes them less likely to buy-in. They don't have a time machine so they don't need to know. What matters is why you think the current price is too low.

Comment by deluks917 on Learning Russian Roulette · 2021-04-02T21:52:25.617Z · LW · GW

It is not a serious problem if your epistemology gives you the wrong answer in extremely unlikely worlds (ie ones where you survived 1000 rounds of Russian Roulette). Don't optimize for extremely unlikely scenarios. 

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-04-02T12:28:26.927Z · LW · GW

I agree and recommend this trade here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets

Comment by deluks917 on deluks917's Shortform · 2021-03-27T14:57:58.337Z · LW · GW

My father died It has been a rough year.

Comment by deluks917 on A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance · 2021-03-23T03:25:59.937Z · LW · GW

ETH is switching off PoW. Once ETh swaps crypto will be less than 90% PoW. 

Comment by deluks917 on Conspicuous saving · 2021-03-22T18:08:49.187Z · LW · GW

I would not forget to include something like a house. We rent.

Comment by deluks917 on Conspicuous saving · 2021-03-21T04:33:14.757Z · LW · GW

Me and my partner Titania are living on 2500-3000usd a month all-inclusive. Our income is quite a bit more than that lol. We are hoping to get this lower.

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T22:55:05.876Z · LW · GW

I was quite explicit the current perp trade will only go on so long. You can lever the trade some amount to get to 5 or ten percent. Though there are limits to how much leverage you can use.

Imo you certainly should not compare a low risk investment to a plan that involves going long crypto.

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T22:52:05.792Z · LW · GW

You dont seem to be doing any sort of empirical calculation about how often things go wrong. Especially with respect to crypto exchanges. Exchanges have operated for many years. Users losing their funds is very rare. Empirically there is nothing like a one percent chance an exchange losses your money over a few months.

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T22:45:14.112Z · LW · GW

The short answer is no

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T00:16:21.165Z · LW · GW

I think you need to follow good practices. Getting out with no plan is not following good practices. I will write up my opinion on best practices soon. Though it is nothing too crazy.

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-19T00:13:11.653Z · LW · GW

Saying that something is less than 1% to happen is not saying it's impossible. If you hit the bad 1% you lose your investment. This is certainly possible. I am happy to take favorable bets even if 1% of the time I lose the entire investment. I am not going to bring down the financial system if I get unlucky. The risks on some of these are much less than 1% over the relevant time periods. 

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-18T21:56:42.032Z · LW · GW

Not Vitalik. A friend of mine from OBNYC.

I don't know why you had so many troubles putting money into polymarket a few months back. Right now polymarket is in 'trouble' since ETH fees are so high so its expensive to withdraw. 

I mostly election bet elsewhere but I got five figures into polymarket without too much trouble. 

I wish you had posted on lesswrong. I would have happily helped you.

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-18T20:19:14.501Z · LW · GW

Returns for the safe trades I discuss more than compensate for counterparty risks. Of course, you will incur short-term capital gains doing these trades. But the returns I am describing are extremely lucrative and more than compensate for the tax treatment.  

Comment by deluks917 on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-18T19:10:39.866Z · LW · GW

"You're claiming you've been correctly noticing good investment opportunities over a several-month period." This not what I am arguing. I am arguing that you can check the EMH right now and notice it is false.

The actual answer to your question is unfairly favorable to me given market conditions. I put a relatively large percentage of money into crypto so my overall portfolio is up more than 200% over the last twelve months. This is not replicable going forward. Pretty much everything in crypto is up but Solana started spiking later than other coins because of how it unlocked. I actually did tell people to but it when it was ~2 USD in early January and it has since gone up around 7x. That is less than some altcoins but as I said it starting spiking later which is favorable.

Comment by deluks917 on Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit · 2021-03-13T18:21:09.757Z · LW · GW

It cost me about 100 the final time I withdrew. 

Comment by deluks917 on Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit · 2021-03-13T15:57:00.487Z · LW · GW

I recently pulled my money out of Polymarket. Returns don't seem that great anymore. The binary options seemed at least reasonably priced to me when I did some Black Scholes. The maga money is basically gone. 

People should also be warned that it is expensive to get out of Polymarket.

Comment by deluks917 on A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement · 2021-03-01T05:56:34.553Z · LW · GW

Crypto started off like 5% of my portfolio. Now it is like 70%. I have actually been selling crypto lol. 

Comment by deluks917 on Takeaways from one year of lockdown · 2021-03-01T05:09:01.845Z · LW · GW

Multiple houses did this sort of thing.

There was also an enormous amount of social pressure to be extremely covid cautious. It was really over the top given the community demographics (very young!). This is part of the reason I recently left the Bay community.

Comment by deluks917 on Mentorship, Management, and Mysterious Old Wizards · 2021-02-25T20:43:51.827Z · LW · GW

I disagree with your interpretation of what happened with respect to talent constraints. In addition, I have a meta-critique. In your hypothetical people talk about 'talent constraints' without citing any articles. But you don't cite any articles either! 

I think quite a lot of the basis for 'EA is talent constrained came from the 80K hours surveys. 2017 2018. Both surveys were quite detailed and cannot be quickly summarized. But the 2017 report literally says the following: 

  • On a 0-4 scale EA organisations viewed themselves as 2.5 ‘talent constrained’ and 1.2 ‘funding constrained’, suggesting hiring remains the more significant limiting factor, though funding still does limit some.

'EA is talent constrained' was definitely not just a mistranslation, the explicit concept of 'talent constrained' vs 'funding constrained' was used on official surveys as recently as 2017. The surveys also make it clear that organizations considered keeping their recent hires to be worth seemingly incredible amounts of money. They were asked:

For a typical recent Senior/Junior hire, how much financial compensation would you need to receive today, to make you indifferent about that person having to stop working for you or anyone for the next 3 years?

Responses in 2017 and 2018 respectively for Senior/Junior hires:

Senior   $8,200,000    $7,400,000.00
Junior   $1,300,000     $1,050,000

80k Hours explicitly agrees the surveys were misleading for many readers and they will try to do better in the future. So there is no need to harp on them. But the meta point seems important here. 

Comment by deluks917 on Bet On Biden · 2021-02-20T22:03:51.453Z · LW · GW

That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good.  He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.

Comment by deluks917 on Bet On Biden · 2021-02-19T02:55:33.064Z · LW · GW

Many people including myself got way better percentage and absolute returns on the election. He was way too optimistic.

Comment by deluks917 on “PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not. · 2021-02-14T22:50:48.708Z · LW · GW

What do you think of this article by Holden: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gTaDDJFDzqe7jnTWG/some-thoughts-on-public-discourse

Holden seems rather concerned with PR to me. The article explicitly supports your claim that 'PR concerns' push people towards not communicating at all. But it seems like Holden has quite good reasons to communicate less openly. 

To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised. It seems important in many contexts to avoid angering the wrong people. Maintaining 'good PR' is a valuable instrumental goal. To what degree are you saying we should ignore these concerns? Do you think trying to be 'honorable' will suffice to avoid bad outcomes? Are you just saying to be marginally less concerned with PR? Do you think Open Phil should do things differently?

Comment by deluks917 on Taking money seriously · 2021-01-30T05:18:27.638Z · LW · GW

One of my biggest regrets is not focusing on making money when I was younger. There was a lot of money to be made, and it would have been really useful. Money is optionality and can be used to further many goals.

Comment by deluks917 on Lifelong investments · 2021-01-24T00:29:18.365Z · LW · GW

This advice would have gone really terribly for me. I have maintained a lot of friendships over time and I have been with the same primary partner for almost eight years now. But most of my previous life plans were really dumb. Thank goodness I did not commit to them!

Comment by deluks917 on Group house norms really do seem toxic to many people. · 2021-01-12T00:28:21.458Z · LW · GW

A decent number of people get into polyamory due to the rationalist community. If someone got involved with polyamory thanks to the community and it went badly, I think it would be reasonable to write such a post. Especially if they would have done the opposite if things had gone well. I should note I myself am poly. There are definitely houses that have gone even worse than DT. 

Also the most obvious to me example of 'good standing outside the bay -> 'got into a huge amount of trouble in the bay' also had no connection to DT.

Comment by deluks917 on Ideal Chess - drop chess perfected · 2020-12-20T05:48:18.677Z · LW · GW

Bughouse Chess seems like an option. Bughouse is played on two boards. Pieces captured on one board can be placed on the other board. Bughouse is rather popular with strong chess players. Traditionally bughouse is played in teams of two. But nothing is stopping you from having one player play both of their boards. Given its popularity, it seems like an attractive option. Though you have to order the turns WhiteA, WhiteB, BlackB, BlackA.