Best in Class Life Improvement 2024-04-04T01:51:02.556Z
FUTARCHY NOW BABY 2024-02-17T00:03:18.962Z
Gender Exploration 2024-01-14T18:57:32.893Z
Spirit Airlines Merger Play 2024-01-03T19:25:54.726Z
Anthropic is further accelerating the Arms Race? 2023-04-06T23:29:24.080Z
Just Pivot to AI: The secret is out 2023-03-15T06:26:57.748Z
Bedbugs are a Solved Problem - DIY Bio-Weapon works. 2022-11-30T03:40:36.886Z
Semi-conductor/AI Stock Discussion. 2022-11-25T23:35:57.908Z
Tears Must Flow 2021-11-30T18:37:57.408Z
I'm Sorry Fluttershy 2021-05-22T20:09:27.342Z
Small and Vulnerable 2021-05-03T04:55:52.149Z
People Will Listen 2021-04-11T16:51:10.467Z
Violating the EMH - Prediction Markets 2021-03-28T04:05:09.184Z
Sapphire Shorts 2021-03-27T14:57:57.956Z
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence 2021-03-18T18:38:30.881Z
Group house norms really do seem toxic to many people. 2021-01-11T23:42:36.239Z
Bet On Biden 2020-10-17T22:03:19.144Z
What should experienced rationalists know? 2020-10-13T17:32:32.388Z
Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines 2020-07-29T19:21:31.641Z
Construct a portfolio to profit from AI progress. 2020-07-25T08:18:05.633Z
How much does neatly eating matter? What about other food manners? 2019-06-11T19:40:45.539Z
Rational Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-05-02T18:19:47.821Z
Rationality Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-03-21T14:12:26.432Z
A Concrete Multi-Step Variant of Double Crux I Have Used Successfully 2018-03-15T01:26:16.028Z
Correct Models Are Bad 2018-03-04T16:51:25.919Z
Rationality Feed: Last Month's Best Posts 2018-02-12T13:18:39.909Z
Rational Feed: Last Week's Community Articles and Some Recommended Posts 2017-10-02T13:49:05.937Z
Rational Feed: Last Week's Community Articles and Some Recommended Posts 2017-09-25T13:41:55.117Z
Rational Feed 2017-09-17T22:03:25.134Z
Rational Feed 2017-09-09T19:48:18.079Z
Rational Feed 2017-08-27T03:49:15.774Z
Bi-weekly Rational Feed 2017-08-08T13:56:20.160Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-07-24T21:56:46.003Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-07-09T19:11:21.767Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-06-24T00:07:03.768Z
Concrete Ways You Can Help Make the Community Better 2017-06-17T03:03:33.317Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-06-10T21:56:38.374Z
Bi-Weekly Rational Feed 2017-05-28T17:12:57.118Z
A Month's Worth of Rational Posts - Feedback on my Rationality Feed. 2017-05-15T14:21:32.995Z
I Updated the List of Rationalist Blogs on the Wiki 2017-04-25T10:26:51.234Z


Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Open Thread Spring 2024 · 2024-04-08T10:19:29.456Z · LW · GW

Does anyone have high quality analysis of how effective machines are for strength training and building muscles. Not free weights specifically machines. Im not the pickiest on how one operationalizes 'work'. More interested in the quality of the analysis. But some questions:

-- Do users get hurt frequently? Are the injuries chronic? (This is the most important question)

-- Do people who use them consistently gain muscle

-- Can you gain a 'lot' of muscle and strength liek you can with free weights. Or people cap out quickly if they are fit

-- Does strength from free weight carry over to other things. To barbells? To bodyweight calisthenics? To sports?

As I said im not the pickiest. Id rather have a great analysis of 'carryover to curling' than a meh quality analysis that covered all of my questions.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Vanessa Kosoy's Shortform · 2024-04-06T20:25:21.541Z · LW · GW

Im not particularly against pivotal acts. It seems plausible to me someone will take one. Would not exactly shock me if Sam Altman himself planned to take one to prevent dangerous AGI. He is intelligent and therefore isnt going to openly talk about considering them. But I dont have any serious objection to them being taken if people are reasonable about it.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Best in Class Life Improvement · 2024-04-04T18:13:37.913Z · LW · GW

A rather large fraction of the total words in this document are dedicated to safety warnings. I do not see how its possible to deny I seem quite focus on some sense of safety. I focused on the safety issues I think are genuinely the most pressing (addiction risks, trauma). I genuinely do not think that drug purity issues are the main risk of taking this advice. Certainly not for ketamine sourced in San Fransisco.  Also the service I linked in SF also sends samples to a lab for quite thorough testing and you get results in about four weeks.  You should believe I genuinely disagree with you on what the risks are for the substances mentioned.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Best in Class Life Improvement · 2024-04-04T16:46:11.320Z · LW · GW

I think modafinal is great for a lot of people. But I made the choice to only write up the very best (in terms of expected outcomes) stuff. Given that many substances have risks or legal issues it was much simpler for me to just not mention a lot of stuff. I do not intend any implicit claim that other things aren't useful. But I didn't make a list of 'stuff I've investigated and found less good on average' vs 'stuff I have not investigated'.

Thanks for sharing moda is working that well for you

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on My Interview With Cade Metz on His Reporting About Slate Star Codex · 2024-04-01T04:25:58.022Z · LW · GW

It feels like bad praxis to punish people for things they got right! 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on General Thoughts on Secular Solstice · 2024-03-26T04:05:44.412Z · LW · GW

The circle is by far my favorite solstice song. I like to it all the time. It is definitely the most 'sapph values' part of the performance. I find it beautiful. A ray of pure divine grace. I will say im not exactly bad at being rational in concrete ways. Im fairly successful economically, socially and romantically despite having an abusive childhood. I attribute my success to being methodical and rational about things, at least some of the time. But there is something about rat values that differs from mine. So its very good for my feeling included that the Circle has survived the culls.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-03-19T18:10:32.345Z · LW · GW

If any of my adoring fans, or anyone else, wants to grab lunch/dinner/a drink let me know. Im in SF for a bit. Lots to talk about. Also I try to do an hour plus of walking per day. So happy to walk. Though im not always up for a big hike. Lots to do.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-03-19T18:06:22.184Z · LW · GW
Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on FUTARCHY NOW BABY · 2024-02-18T23:02:11.825Z · LW · GW

I didn't have time or energy! This shit was going parabolic! Whatever happened to Aumann's agreement theorem!

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on FUTARCHY NOW BABY · 2024-02-18T07:41:52.795Z · LW · GW

I will note this is both a cool as fuck project and the token is like 2x+ from when I posted. So idk why im getting downvoted. I guess lesswrong jsut isnt into finance for personal gain or to look at dope stuff.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sam Altman’s Chip Ambitions Undercut OpenAI’s Safety Strategy · 2024-02-12T21:04:58.115Z · LW · GW

The lesswrong/EA communities 'inside game' strategy for AI safety is genuinely embarrassing to me as a longtime community member. Quokkas gonna quokka but this is ridiculous.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI · 2024-02-10T21:20:56.000Z · LW · GW

Obviously this is up a fuckton

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-01-28T15:32:12.023Z · LW · GW

Serious advice: Your close friends and partners should actively admire you and how you live your life. Don't settle for less. You can have less close relations across the divide. But your closest circle should see you as a hero.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Monthly Roundup #14: January 2024 · 2024-01-25T07:45:34.578Z · LW · GW

Emmett Shear reminds us that if you are playing Street Fighter [2 Turbo, presumably] then the solution to the so-called ‘cheese’ moves that seem overpowered is not to ban them, it is to use them until someone shows you or figures out the counter, then everything is fine.

This works exactly because the game is well-designed, with good counters to every such move. If that was not true, this would fail. It also relies on having enough data to find the counter-moves, and enough practice to learn them, to get to the new equilibrium. It does genuinely ruin a different experience some people want. Keep those things in mind while generalizing.


Its worth noting that, at this point, the vast majority of paper magic is explicitly competitive. Commander has eclipsed everything else combined. And in normal commander if your playgroup finds something cheap than you basically can't use it! Normal commander games run on social consensus of whats acceptable, definitely de facto ban fully optimized lists, and have a strong norm of not bringing strategies anyone at the table strongly objects to. Seems like most people prefer this flexible 'scrubby' ruleset.

it is interesting to me that what has won out is neither strictly competitive nor strictly freeform. Commander has a banned list and most people dont explicitly deviate from it. People rarely play totally homebrew formats. What has won is a 'consensus ruleset' + 'flexible social norms around what is de facto banned for being too strong or cheesy'. Very interesting to me. 

Note:  Im aware CEDH exists but I'm counting it as part of 'everything else' for these purposes. I play IRL modern and modern/legacy on mtgo (im sapphirestar on mtgo! send me a friend request if you wanna jam some games). so im not exactly the scrubbiest person myself. But it definitely seems like the hardcore tribe lost out in the marketplace for playershare.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on This might be the last AI Safety Camp · 2024-01-25T01:10:29.302Z · LW · GW

I don't really get why this wouldn't get funded. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-01-24T03:36:10.250Z · LW · GW

Current AI weights

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on When Does Altruism Strengthen Altruism? · 2024-01-22T18:56:13.048Z · LW · GW

A culture that denigrates being altruistic/nice in small ways makes it really hard to know who to trust. I understand their is an aversion to 'virtue signaling' but accepting rat/ea culture really feels like it disables my intuitive (and honestly decently reliable) intuition for who is trustworthy. Imo there is a good reason people check things like 'how do they treat waiters' when deciding who is a trustworthy partner or friend. That stuff cannot replace explicit logical altruism. But it seems like a mistake to jettison being kind in smaller ways throughout your life.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Against the Burden of Knowledge · 2024-01-21T11:28:05.841Z · LW · GW

Progress is mostly illegal or at least extremely hobbled by regulations. When people are free to innovate there is usually quite rapid progress. There are a few exceptions like fundamental physics but existing physics explains things we actually interact with fairly well except at extremely high energies. I have all sorts of very viable and productive business ideas that would help people. But they are either illegal or regulations make them tooo expensive to start up. This is the norm. If you want to improve things you need to look for areas where innovation is still doable without incurring gigantic costs.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on What Software Should Exist? · 2024-01-21T11:22:19.576Z · LW · GW

A browser extension that colors reddit usernames red if the user is a likely bot.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-01-18T02:38:48.736Z · LW · GW

I must have a different relation to social media to most rats. Whenever I open twitter I get a constant dopamine rush from all the stuff I find cute or funny. Here are some examples to demonstrate that maybe I am just easy to please:




I dont even live in SF. but I am visiting right now and having so much fun. Filled with joy at the idea of tetra having a lovely trip. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Gender Exploration · 2024-01-16T05:55:05.445Z · LW · GW

note: I have been informed by my hotel mate I cried writing this comment in the bathroom I had to reassure her the audible crying had nothing to do with her. 

I thought about this for awhile. My real opinion is that 'being afraid of a scar on your chest' just isn't a great way to live. And so I am not exactly against the traditional masculine gender role discouraging people from being afraid of that stuff. Arguable the 'traditional masc gender role' only discourages expressing such fears not having them. I think there is a place for expressing negative emotions, you can't always bottle them up. But for the most part expressing emotions makes them stronger not weaker. If you are going to cry tears, cry about something that really matters. Or cry about the plight of others not yourself.  Though of course I am against oppressing or bullying others. 

I am diagnosed with BPD. A nice way to describe BPD is being someone with 'hard to mange emotions' and almost always means being really sensitive and easy to hurt. I won't speak for others but at least for me personally 'Man up' has been a good attitude. So its hard for me personally to be too against this aspect of the male gender role.  I am mostly a queer community norms partisan but on this one I think trad masculinity has a point. It really does seem better to encourage people to 'be strong'. Though I dont think bravery and strength always point in a particularly 'trad' direction - arguably thats a lot of the point of the post. There are a lot of ways to be a man. But this just isn't the softest world. The more you can handle your own pain the more strength you have to fight for the people who are in a lot of trouble. 

Thats how I see it anyway.  And I decided to be quite open about how I really feel about this stuff. I definitely didn't add many disclaimers to my post, and I could have added a whole lot. For example I am personally not willing to risk bottom surgery. But I have a quite strong commitment to bodily autonomy. I'm very supportive of other people making other choices. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Gender Exploration · 2024-01-15T21:06:56.612Z · LW · GW

Estrogen seems to make a lot of girls more interested in men over time. Possibly progesterone is involved idk. So you may be meeting girls who are still figuring out their new sexuality with a new hormone balance. I don't think it's well understood. Both certainty a surprising number of trans girls predict they will be lesbian but end up with some sexual interest in cis men .

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Saving the world sucks · 2024-01-14T09:41:41.786Z · LW · GW


Means a lot tbh

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Saving the world sucks · 2024-01-13T14:11:52.253Z · LW · GW

I will say I tried extremely hard to be a good EA. It basically drove me insane. Community is extremely unsupportive. I basically decided Im retired. I put in enough years in the misery mines and donated more than enough money (most of what I did ended in failure but I cashed out 7 figs of crypto and donated a lot). I will be a nice friendly generous person by the extremely low standards of my actually existing society. But otherwise I will just do what I want. I cried enough tears and sacrificed enough of the windfalls I was legally entitled to keep. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on D0TheMath's Shortform · 2024-01-13T09:16:41.569Z · LW · GW

People metaphorically run parts of the code themselves all the time! Its quite common for people to work through proofs of major theorems themselves. As a grad student it is expected you will make an effort to understand the derivation of as much of the foundational results in your sub-field as you can. A large part of the rationale is pedagogical but it is also good practice. It is definitely considered moderately distasteful to cite results you dont understand and good mathematicians do try to minimize it. Its rare that an important theorem has a proof that is unusually hard to check out yourself.

Also a few people like Terrance Tao have personally gone through a LOT of results and written up explanations. Terry Tao doesn't seem to report that he looks into X field and finds fatal errors. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on D0TheMath's Shortform · 2024-01-13T08:44:28.136Z · LW · GW

Long complicated proofs almost always have mistakes. So in that sense you are right. But its very rare for the mistakes to turn out to be important or hard to fix. 

In my opinion the only really logical defense of Academic Mathematics as an epistemic process is that it does seem to generate reliable knowledge. You can read through this thread: There just don't seem to be very many recent results that were widely accepted but proven wrong later. Certainly not many 'important' results. The situation was different in the 1800s but standard for rigor have risen. 

Admittedly this isn't the most convincing argument in the world. But it convinces me and I am fairly able to follow academic mathematics.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2024-01-13T07:58:34.988Z · LW · GW

I used to feel CONSTANTLY gaslit reading the EA forum. For some reason this has substantially reduced in recent months. It feels like people actually lay out their actual reasoning. This is an example of a post that feels 'honest' to me and would be really unusual a few years ago: 

For example: For years people would comment that EA seemed increasingly 'about' AI Risk. the response was almost always to point out most EA money goes to near-termist causes. That reply was true but seemed to be trying to deflect rather than engage openly. Some evidence from the above link that that people had a point and weren't just hallucinating: 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Universal Love Integration Test: Hitler · 2024-01-12T11:29:35.500Z · LW · GW

I don't have much trouble being empathetic or loving to Biden/Trump/Putin either.  They are all people with many good and bad qualities. I can imagine myself trying to help. For example if they were ever subjected to solitary confinement I think I would at least call my Senator and ask they receive genuinely humane treatment. It is hard to imagine more idk 'personal' situations since im a normal person and they (current or former) world leaders.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Universal Love Integration Test: Hitler · 2024-01-11T08:50:35.048Z · LW · GW

I genuinely feel terrible for Adolf Hitler.

Adolf was close with his mother but she died when he was seventeen. His father was a horribly abusive person to almost everyone. Dad was certainly not kind to his illegitimate son Adolf. Adolf wanted to be an artist. He tried and failed twice to enter the Academy of fine arts. He was deemed physically unfit for the army and had to ask for special permission to serve.  He was injured while serving and later gassed! Despite his injuries and seeming lack of aptitude as a soldier he was at the front lines a huge amount of time as a headquarters runner. He sure as fuck earned his iron cross. 

After WW1 Germany was treated quite horribly. Hitler loved his country but his country was humiliated and put under terrible onerous conditions. When he got into politics after the war he was finally good at something! Obviously he had views I find abhorrent but lots of people have views I quite seriously dislike. Things escalated. Its easy to get swept up in things, even if you are also contributing to the dynamic. It is especially easy if you have good reasons for feeling hurt. Adolf was vegetarian. I wish he had been given a better life. Here is a poem he wrote about his mother:

When your mother has grown older,
When her dear, faithful eyes
no longer see life as they once did,
When her feet, grown tired,
No longer want to carry her as she walks -

Then lend her your arm in support,
Escort her with happy pleasure.
The hour will come when, weeping, you
Must accompany her on her final walk.

And if she asks you something,
Then give her an answer.
And if she asks again, then speak!
And if she asks yet again, respond to her,
Not impatiently, but with gentle calm.

And if she cannot understand you properly
Explain all to her happily.
The hour will come, the bitter hour,
When her mouth asks for nothing more.

If there is any reason for hate it is to spur action. Im a proud Communist. I'm very proud of my comrades in the Garman communist party. A shocking fraction of German communists took active action to resist the Reich. Many were awarded medals. Their bravery makes me cry whenever I think about them. But Hitler is dead, he cant do anymore harm. In my heart of hearts, I hope that on some other spin of the wheel we can be friends. I love painting. My father abused me too. If Hitler is in any sense around, perhaps in some other world I wish him only the best. If I ever simulated Hitler I would only give him the most joyful life I could. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on The Aspiring Rationalist Congregation · 2024-01-11T06:24:43.668Z · LW · GW

The best version of this I know is Fractal in NYC. The main idea is everyone lives in the same apartment building in Brooklyn. There is also common area in 1G. Works great. Not very family focused though. But the founders of fractal are looking into a sister project with more family focus.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Spirit Airlines Merger Play · 2024-01-04T05:32:57.527Z · LW · GW

Good book value. It might trade under book but its presumably not going to zero when it has decent book value. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Spirit Airlines Merger Play · 2024-01-04T04:27:38.589Z · LW · GW

As you know I don't find the EMH consistently true. The argument for why its more than ~40% to go through are linked.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Spirit Airlines Merger Play · 2024-01-04T04:27:04.278Z · LW · GW

Yes. You can read the sources to see why its more than 40%.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them · 2024-01-02T21:24:03.981Z · LW · GW

People disagreeing with you, on public sites and especially on their own blogs, is not abuse! 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Sapphire Shorts · 2023-12-31T16:16:58.910Z · LW · GW

I have no idea sorry.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them · 2023-12-31T00:47:22.410Z · LW · GW

I don't think we should help him convince other people of a position that seems to have driven him kinda insane.

It is also kind of funny to me the post references clarity in the title but I honestly don't even know what Zach thinks about when people should transition. To be clear I think we should be supportive of people who transition. And people should transition iff they think it will make them happier. But whatever the best practical policies are I seriously doubt Zach's philosophical point of view is going to be prudent to promote or adopt.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them · 2023-12-30T23:55:13.199Z · LW · GW

"This means rationalists should be in favor of life extension, getting rich as individuals, and getting personal access to the most powerful artificial general intelligence tools that can be controlled. "

Uhhhh yes they should do this instead of becoming obsessed with this type of stuff. Though 'can be controlled' is certainly load bearing.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them · 2023-12-30T19:10:15.025Z · LW · GW

Rationality is Winning. Rationality is not about becoming obsessed with this stuff, losing sleep, losing friends and literally going insane. This is a real lesson that we should be emphasizing Rationality is Winning way more.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Would you have a baby in 2024? · 2023-12-27T17:26:52.459Z · LW · GW

If a friend or partner wanted to have a child with me Id potentially be down. Though we would need to have extremely aligned view on non-coercive parenting. Also im a sleepy boy so we gotta be aligned on low effort parenting too.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI · 2023-11-09T22:41:48.856Z · LW · GW

You can buy GDR common shares via LSE on Interactive Brokers.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Vote on Interesting Disagreements · 2023-11-09T08:14:45.724Z · LW · GW

Farmed animals are currently inside a non-extinction X-risk. 

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI · 2023-11-07T21:23:10.029Z · LW · GW

My current allocation to AI is split something like this:


MSFT Calls2.78
Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI · 2023-11-07T18:00:43.288Z · LW · GW

I recommend sgov for getting safe interest. It effectively just invests in short term treasuries for you. very simple and straightforward. Easier than buying bonds yourself. I do not think 100 percent or more equities is a good idea right now given that we might get more rate increases. Obviously do not buy long term bonds. Im not a prophet just saying how I am handling things

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on When and why should you use the Kelly criterion? · 2023-11-06T01:13:09.123Z · LW · GW

I have supported myself for almost a decade now via speculation / gambling / arbitrage. I almost never find the Kelly criterion all that useful in my own life. If a bet is really juicy go as hard as you can while finding the downside tolerable. If a bet isn't QUITE JUICY I usually pass.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on The other side of the tidal wave · 2023-11-03T19:11:57.083Z · LW · GW

All things arise and all things pass away.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on I've had it with those dark rumours about our culture rigorously suppressing opinions · 2023-11-02T09:27:05.907Z · LW · GW

Where do you live in Ohio? In columbus poly isnt very taboo ime living in cbus. But Columbus is the biggest city.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on I've had it with those dark rumours about our culture rigorously suppressing opinions · 2023-11-02T09:25:57.333Z · LW · GW

Multi, aren't you a fellow leftist? Why did you summon these demons.

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Closing Notes on Nonlinear Investigation · 2023-09-16T22:58:06.312Z · LW · GW

This is a specific claim about what specific people should do

Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Closing Notes on Nonlinear Investigation · 2023-09-16T22:56:37.680Z · LW · GW


Comment by sapphire (deluks917) on Closing Notes on Nonlinear Investigation · 2023-09-16T16:04:54.782Z · LW · GW

Every retrospective I know of has shown them to do a terrible job. Note the failures are not even obviously ideological. They have protected the normal sort of abuser. But they also protected Kathy Forth who was a serial false accuser (yes they banned her from some events but she was still active in EA spaces until her suicide).