donald-hobson feed - LessWrong 2.0 Reader donald-hobson’s posts and comments on the Effective Altruism Forum en-us Comment by donald-hobson on Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PzAnWgqvfESgQEvdg/any-rebuttals-of-christiano-and-ai-impacts-on-takeoff-speeds#urLeopc9JnMKLTEY6 <p>My claim at the start had a typo in it. I am claiming that you can&#x27;t make a human seriously superhuman with a good education. Much like you can&#x27;t get a chimp up to human level with lots of education and &quot;self improvement&quot;. Serious genetic modification is another story, but at that point, your building an AI out of protien. </p><p>It does depend where you draw the line, but the for a wide range of performance levels, we went from no algorithm at that level, to a fast algorithm at that level. You couldn&#x27;t get much better results just by throwing more compute at it.</p> donald-hobson urLeopc9JnMKLTEY6 2019-04-24T13:00:25.546Z Comment by donald-hobson on Pascal's Mugging and One-shot Problems https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eSDZsrGgXqFyLJTp8/pascal-s-mugging-and-one-shot-problems#dZyjMgqmPbedazfqq <p>If you literally maximize expected number of paperclips, using standard decision theory, you will always pay the casino. To refuse the one shot game, you need to have a nonlinear utility function, or be doing something weird like median outcome maximization. </p><p>Choose action A to maximixe m such that P(paperclip count&gt;m|a)=1/2</p><p>A well defined rule, that will behave like maximization in a sufficiently vast multiverse.</p> donald-hobson dZyjMgqmPbedazfqq 2019-04-23T22:21:09.812Z Comment by donald-hobson on Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PzAnWgqvfESgQEvdg/any-rebuttals-of-christiano-and-ai-impacts-on-takeoff-speeds#337bmKMrbtzzTrHwh <p>Humans are not currently capable of self improvement in the understanding your our own source code sense. The &quot;self improvement&quot; section in bookstores doesn&#x27;t change the hardware or the operating system, it basically adds more data. </p><p>Of course talent and compute both make a difference, in the sense that <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; display: table-cell!important; width: 10000em} .mjx-math {display: inline-block; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0} .mjx-math * {display: inline-block; 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src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\partial o/\partial i>0"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&gt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\partial o/\partial r>0"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&gt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span></span></span>. I was talking about the subset of worlds where research talent was by far the most important. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\partial o/\partial r <<\partial o/\partial i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.077em;">&lt;<span class="mjx-charbox MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-bottom: 0.314em;">&lt;</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p><p>In a world where researchers have little idea what they are doing, and are running a new AI every hour hoping to stumble across something that works, the result holds.</p><p>In a world where research involves months thinking about maths, then a day writing code, then an hour running it, this result holds. </p><p>In a world where everyone knows the right algorithm, but it takes a lot of compute, so AI research consists of building custom hardware and super-computing clusters, this result fails. </p><p>Currently, we are somewhere in the middle. I don&#x27;t know which of these options future research will look like, although if its the first one, friendly AI seems unlikely.</p><p>In most of the scenarios where the first smarter than human AI, is orders of magnitude faster than a human, I would expect a hard takeoff. As we went from having no algorithms that could say (tell a cat from a dog) straight to having algorithms superhumanly fast at doing so, there was no algorithm that worked, but took supercomputer hours, this seems like a plausible assumption.</p> donald-hobson 337bmKMrbtzzTrHwh 2019-04-23T20:13:21.772Z Comment by donald-hobson on Any rebuttals of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PzAnWgqvfESgQEvdg/any-rebuttals-of-christiano-and-ai-impacts-on-takeoff-speeds#WLMC4hTHnExmKrdHm <p>When an intelligence builds another intelligence, in a single direct step, the output intelligence <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; 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src: local('MathJax_Script'), local('MathJax_Script-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Script-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Script-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Script-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R; src: local('MathJax_Typewriter'), local('MathJax_Typewriter-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B; src: local('MathJax_Main Bold'), local('MathJax_Main-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I; src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="o"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span></span></span></span></span> is a function of the input intelligence <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span>, and the resources used <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="r"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span></span></span></span></span>. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="o(i,r)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. This function is clearly increasing in both <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="r"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span></span></span></span></span>. Set <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="r"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span></span></span></span></span> to be a reasonably large level of resources, eg <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="10^{30}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">10</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: 0.591em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">30</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>flops, 20 years to think about it. A low input intelligence, eg a dog, would be unable to make something smarter than itself. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="o(i_d,r)<i_d"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&lt;</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. A team of experts (by assumption that ASI is made), can make something smarter than themselves. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="o(i_e,r)>i_e"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&gt;</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. So there must be a fixed point. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="o(i_f,r)=f"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.23em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span></span></span>. The questions then become, how powerful is a pre fixed point AI. Clearly less good at AI research than a team of experts. As there is no reason to think that AI research is uniquely hard to AI, and there are some reasons to think it might be easier, or more prioritized, if it can&#x27;t beat our AI researchers, it can&#x27;t beat our other researchers. It is unlikely to make any major science or technology breakthroughs. </p><p>I recon that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\partial o/\partial i(i_f,r)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.035em;">∂</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.23em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> is large (&gt;10) because on an absolute scale, the difference between an IQ 90 and an IQ120 human is quite small, but I would expect any attempt at AI made by the latter to be much better. In a world where the limiting factor is researcher talent, not compute, the AI can get the compute it needs for <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="r"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span></span></span></span></span> in hours (seconds? milliseconds??) As the lumpiness of innovation puts the first post fixed point AI a non-exponentially tiny distance ahead, (most innovations are at least 0.1% that state of the art better in a fast moving field) then a handful of cycles or recursive self improvement (&lt;1 day) is enough to get the AI into the seriously overpowered range.</p><p>The question of economic doubling times would depend on how fast an economy can grow when tech breakthroughs are limited by human researchers. If we happen to have cracked self replication at about this point, it could be very fast. </p> donald-hobson WLMC4hTHnExmKrdHm 2019-04-22T19:35:35.775Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why is multi worlds not a good explanation for abiogenesis https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxgYz667NeYLaGKeS/why-is-multi-worlds-not-a-good-explanation-for-abiogenesis#98aawdsFLRooSPSQC <p>Consider a theory to be a collection of formal mathematical statements about how idealized objects behave. For example, Conways game of life is a theory in the sense of a completely self contained set of rules.</p><p>If you have multiple theories that produce similar results, its helpful to have a bridging law. If your theories were Newtonian mechanics, and general relativity, a bridging law would say which numbers in relativity matched up with which numbers in Newtonian mechanics. This allows you to translate a relativistic problem into a Newtonian one, solve that, and translate the answer back into the relativistic framework. This produces some errors, but often makes the maths easier.</p><p>Quantum many worlds is a simple theory. It could be simulated on a hypercomputer with less than a page of code. There is also a theory where you take the code for quantum many worlds, and add &quot;observers&quot; and &quot;wavefunction collapse&quot; with extra functions within your code. This can be done, but it is many pages of arbitrary hacks. Call this theory B. If you think this is a strawman of many worlds, describe how you could get a hypercomputer outside the universe to simulate many worlds with a short computer program.</p><p>The bridging between Quantum many worlds and human classical intuitions is quite difficult and subtle. Faced with a simulation of quantum many worlds, it would take a lot of understanding of quantum physics to make everyday changes, like creating or moving macroscopic objects. </p><p>Theory B however is substantially easier to bridge to our classical intuitions. Theory B looks like a chunk of quantum many worlds, plus a chunk of classical intuition, plus a bridging rule between the two. </p><p>The any description of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics seems to involve references to the classical results of a measurement, or a classical observer. Most versions would allow a superposition of an atom being in two different places, but not a superposition of two different presidents winning an election. </p><p>If you don&#x27;t believe atoms can be in superposition, you are ignoring lots of experiments, if you do believe that you can get a superposition of two different people being president, that you yourself could be in a superposition of doing two different things right now, then you believe many worlds by another name. Otherwise, you need to draw some sort of arbitrary cutoff. Its almost like you are bridging between a theory that allows superpositions, and an intuition that doesn&#x27;t.</p> donald-hobson 98aawdsFLRooSPSQC 2019-04-15T11:13:51.936Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why is multi worlds not a good explanation for abiogenesis https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxgYz667NeYLaGKeS/why-is-multi-worlds-not-a-good-explanation-for-abiogenesis#TAF7WxwSQdMvKf8N5 <p>&quot;Now I&#x27;m not clear exactly how often quantum events lead to a slightly different world&quot;</p><p>The answer is Very Very often. If you have a piece of glass and shine a photon at it, such that it has an equal chance of bouncing and going through, the two possibilities become separate worlds. 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src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="2^{1000000}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: 0.591em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1000000</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>worlds, one for each combination of photons going through and bouncing. Note that in most of the worlds, the pattern of bounces looks random, so this is a good source of random numbers. Photons bouncing of glass are just an easy example, almost any physical process splits the universe very fast.</p> donald-hobson TAF7WxwSQdMvKf8N5 2019-04-14T20:10:13.891Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why is multi worlds not a good explanation for abiogenesis https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxgYz667NeYLaGKeS/why-is-multi-worlds-not-a-good-explanation-for-abiogenesis#BBQS56j9yFDm25aZz <p>The nub of the argument is that every time we look in our sock drawer, we see all our socks to be black. </p><p>Many worlds says that our socks are always black. </p><p>The Copenhagen interpretation says that us observing the socks causes them to be black. The rest of the time the socks are pink with green spots.</p><p>Both theories make identical predictions. Many worlds is much simpler to fully specify with equations, and has elegant mathematical properties. The Copenhagen interpretation has special case rules that only kick in when observing something. According to this theory, there is a fundamental physical difference between a complex collection of atoms, and an &quot;observer&quot; and somewhere in the development of life, creatures flipped from one to the other. </p><p>The Copenhagen interpretation doesn&#x27;t make it clear if a cat is a very complex arrangement of molecules, that could in theory be understood as a quantum process that doesn&#x27;t involve the collapse of wave functions, or if cats are observers and so collapses wave functions.</p> donald-hobson BBQS56j9yFDm25aZz 2019-04-14T19:56:08.783Z Comment by donald-hobson on MIRI Summer Fellows Program https://www.lesswrong.com/events/xFGQdgJndLcthgWoE/miri-summer-fellows-program#f668E6SNyNuWtE6rC <p>Hello. I see that while the deadline has passed, the form is still open. Is it still worthwhile to apply?</p> donald-hobson f668E6SNyNuWtE6rC 2019-04-09T20:40:32.538Z Comment by donald-hobson on Would solving logical counterfactuals solve anthropics? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTDQ9eNrSNoYrZzJw/would-solving-logical-counterfactuals-solve-anthropics#dXHRCZx5bBqF9BC3q <p>This supposedly &quot;natural&quot; reference class is full of weird edge cases, in the sense that I can&#x27;t write an algorithm that finds &quot;everybody who asks the question X&quot;. Firstly &quot;everybody&quot; is not well defined in a world that contains everything from trained monkeys to artificial intelligence&#x27;s. And &quot;who asks the question X&quot; is under-defined as there is no hard boundary between a different way of phrasing the same question and slightly different questions. Does someone considering the argument in chinese fall into your reference class? Even more edge cases appear with mind uploading, different mental architectures, ect.</p><p>If you get a different prediction from taking the reference class of &quot;people&quot; (for some formal definition of &quot;people&quot;) and then updating on the fact that you are wearing blue socks, than you get from the reference class &quot;people wearing blue socks&quot;, then something has gone wrong in your reasoning. </p><p>The doomsday argument works by failing to update on anything but a few carefully chosen facts.</p><p></p> donald-hobson dXHRCZx5bBqF9BC3q 2019-04-06T13:28:43.855Z Comment by donald-hobson on Would solving logical counterfactuals solve anthropics? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTDQ9eNrSNoYrZzJw/would-solving-logical-counterfactuals-solve-anthropics#gQj7Ahgd4wi6LSRJd <p>I would say that the concept of probability works fine in anthropic scenarios, or at least there is a well defined number that is equal to probability in non anthropic situations. This number is assigned to &quot;worlds as a whole&quot;. Sleeping beauty assigns 1/2 to heads, and 1/2 to tails, and can&#x27;t meaningfully split the tails case depending on the day. Sleeping beauty is a functional decision theory agent. For each action A, they consider the logical counterfactual that the algorithm they are implementing returned A, then calculate the worlds utility in that counterfactual. They then return whichever action maximizes utility.</p><p>In this framework, &quot;which version am I?&quot; is a meaningless question, you are the algorithm. The fact that the algorithm is implemented in a physical substrate give you means to affect the world. Under this model, whether or not your running on multiple redundant substrates is irrelivant. You reason about the universe without making any anthropic updates. As you have no way of affecting a universe that doesn&#x27;t contain you, or someone reasoning about what you would do, you might as well behave as if you aren&#x27;t in one. You can make the efficiency saving of not bothering to simulate such a world. </p><p>You might, or might not have an easier time effecting a world that contains multiple copies of you. </p> donald-hobson gQj7Ahgd4wi6LSRJd 2019-04-05T23:06:23.400Z Comment by donald-hobson on Can a Bayesian agent be infinitely confused? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QYXGz6cQZ2Q2mBgh6/can-a-bayesian-agent-be-infinitely-confused#5XKdt8Xd2JSbi3Le8 <p> <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; 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padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.057em;">H</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">×</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p>In other words, the agent assigned zero probability to an event, and then it happened.</p> donald-hobson 5XKdt8Xd2JSbi3Le8 2019-03-22T22:06:33.783Z Comment by donald-hobson on More realistic tales of doom https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/more-realistic-tales-of-doom#vat5iKvK7FM9FYFTb <p>As far as I understand it, you are proposing that the most realistic failure mode consists of many AI systems, all put into a position of power by humans, and optimizing for their own proxies. Call these Trusted Trial and Error AI&#x27;s (TTE)</p><p>The distinguishing features of TTE&#x27;s are that they were Trusted. A human put them in a position of power. Humans have refined, understood and checked the code enough that they are prepared to put this algorithm in a self driving car, or a stock management system. They are not lab prototypes. They are also Trial and error learners, not one shot learners.</p><p>Some More descriptions of what capability range I am considering.</p><p>Suppose hypothetically that we had TTE reinforcement learners, a little better than todays state of the art, and nothing beyond that. The AI&#x27;s are advanced enough that they can take a mountain of medical data and train themselves to be skilled doctors by trial and error. However they are not advanced enough to figure out how humans work from, say a sequenced genome and nothing more.</p><p>Give them control of all the traffic lights in a city, and they will learn how to minimize traffic jams. They will arrange for people to drive in circles rather than stay still, so that they do not count as part of a traffic jam. However they will not do anything outside their preset policy space, like hacking into the traffic light control system of other cities, or destroying the city with nukes.</p><p>If such technology is easily available, people will start to use it for things. Some people put it in positions of power, others are more hesitant. As the only way the system can learn to avoid something is through trial and error, the system has to cause a (probably several) public outcrys before it learns not to do so. If no one told the traffic light system that car crashes are bad on simulations or past data, (Alignment failure) Then even if public opinion feeds directly into reward, it will have to cause several car crashes that are clearly its fault before it learns to only cause crashes that can be blamed on someone else. However, deliberately causing crashes will probably get the system shut off or seriously modified. </p><p>Note that we are supposing many of these systems existing, so the failures of some, combined with plenty of simulated failures, will give us a good idea of the failure modes.</p><p>The space of bad things an AI can get away with is small and highly complex in the space of bad things. An TTE set to reduce crime rates tries making the crime report forms longer, this reduces reported crime, but humans quickly realize what its doing. It would have to do this and be patched many times before it came up with a method that humans wouldn&#x27;t notice. </p><p>Given Advanced TTE&#x27;s as the most advanced form of AI, we might slowly develop a problem, but the deployment of TTE&#x27;s would be slowed by the time it takes to gather data and check reliability. Especially given mistrust after several major failures. And I suspect that due to statistical similarity of training and testing, many different systems optimizing different proxies, and humans having the best abstract reasoning about novel situations, and the power to turn the systems off, any discrepancy of goals will be moderately minor. I do not expect such optimization power to be significantly more powerful or less aligned than modern capitalism. </p><p>This all assumes that no one will manage to make a linear time AIXI. If such a thing is made, it will break out of any boxes and take over the world. So, we have a social process of adaption to TTE AI, which is already in its early stages with things like self driving cars, and at any time, this process could be rendered irrelevant by the arrival of a super-intelligence.</p><p></p> donald-hobson vat5iKvK7FM9FYFTb 2019-03-18T16:51:01.487Z Comment by donald-hobson on Risk of Mass Human Suffering / Extinction due to Climate Emergency https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DBpZ23mbQtSdFyyPs/risk-of-mass-human-suffering-extinction-due-to-climate#5NGMoEXEBviQsfaa6 <p>1)Climate change caused extinction is not on the table. Low tech humans can survive everywhere from the jungle to the arctic. Some humans will survive.</p><p>2) I suspect that climate change won&#x27;t cause massive social collapse. It might well knock 10% of world GDP, but it won&#x27;t stop us having an advanced high tech society. At the moment, its not causing damage on that scale, and I suspect that in a few decades, we will have biotech, renewables or other techs that will make everything fine. I suspect that the damage caused by climate change won&#x27;t increase by more than 2 or 3 times in the next 50 years.</p><p>3) If you are skilled enough to be a scientist, inventing a solar panel that&#x27;s 0.5% more efficient does a<strong> lot</strong> more good than showing up to protests. Protest&#x27;s need many people to work, inventors can change the world by themselves. Policy advisors and academics can suggest action in small groups. Even working a normal job and sending your earnings to a well chosen charity is likely to be more effective. </p><p>4) Quite a few people are already working on global warming. It seems unlikely that a problem needs 10,000,001 people working on it to solve, and if only 10,000,000 people work on it, they won&#x27;t manage. Most of the really easy work on global warming is already being done. This is not the case with AI risk as of 10 years ago, for example. (It&#x27;s got a few more people working on it since then, still nothing like climate change.)</p> donald-hobson 5NGMoEXEBviQsfaa6 2019-03-14T23:41:43.915Z Comment by donald-hobson on [Fiction] IO.SYS https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FK49pmBDgYGwDE2Sb/fiction-io-sys#5Mge2AvzAGbLKf7dN <p>I think the protagonist here should have looked at earth. If there was a technological intelligence on earth that cared about the state of Jupiter&#x27;s moons, then it could send rockets there. The most likely scenarios are a disaster bad enough to stop us launching spacecraft, and an AI that only cares about earth. </p><p>A super intelligence should assign non negligible probability to the result that actually happened. Given the tech was available, a space-probe containing an uploaded mind is not that unlikely. If such a probe was a real threat to the AI, it would have already blown up all space-probes on the off chance. </p><p>The upper bound given on the amount that malicious info can harm you is extremely loose. Malicious info can&#x27;t do much harm unless the enemy has a good understanding of the particular system that they are subverting.</p> donald-hobson 5Mge2AvzAGbLKf7dN 2019-03-11T14:36:16.234Z Comment by donald-hobson on Rule Thinkers In, Not Out https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u8GMcpEN9Z6aQiCvp/rule-thinkers-in-not-out#Z5KYvtCgsBvcTufwu <p>Yet policy exploration is an important job. Unless you think that someone posting something on a blog is going to change policy without anyone double-checking it first, we should encourage suggestion of radically new policies.</p> donald-hobson Z5KYvtCgsBvcTufwu 2019-02-27T08:28:14.912Z Comment by donald-hobson on Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4AHXDwcGab5PhKhHT/humans-who-are-not-concentrating-are-not-general#pCPyvGP7rNpuaW27N <p>I would like to propose a model that is more flattering to humans, and more similar to how other parts of human cognition work. When we see a simple textual mistake, like a repeated &quot;the&quot;, we don&#x27;t notice it by default. Human minds correct simple errors automatically without consciously noticing that they are doing it. We round to the nearest pattern. </p><p>I propose that automatic pattern matching to the closest thing that makes sense is happening at a higher level too. When humans skim semi contradictory text, they produce a more consistent world model that doesn&#x27;t quite match up with what is said. </p><p>Language feeds into a deeper, sensible world model module within the human brain and GPT2 doesn&#x27;t really have a coherent world model.</p> donald-hobson pCPyvGP7rNpuaW27N 2019-02-26T09:22:12.633Z Comment by donald-hobson on Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HB6aGCPjtvpLk4K9t/can-we-place-trust-in-post-agi-forecasting-evaluations#pTGfJg3ZdRb3rJqA8 <p>As your belief about how well AGI is likely to go affects both the likelihood of a bet being evaluated, and the chance of winning, so bets about AGI are likely to give dubious results. I also have substantial uncertainty about the value of money in a post singularity world. Most obviously is everyone getting turned into paperclips, noone has any use for money. If we get a friendly singleton super-intelligence, everyone is living in paradise, whether or not they had money before. If we get an economic singularity, where libertarian ASI(s) try to make money without cheating, then money could be valuable. I&#x27;m not sure how we would get that, as an understanding of the control problem good enough to not wipe out humans and fill the universe with bank notes should be enough to make something closer to friendly. </p><p>Even if we do get some kind of ascendant economy, given the amount of resources in the solar system (let alone wider universe), its quite possible that pocket change would be enough to live for aeons of luxury. </p><p>Given how unclear it is about whether or not the bet will get paid and how much the cash would be worth if it was, I doubt that the betting will produce good info. If everyone thinks that money is more likely than not to be useless to them after ASI, then almost no one will be prepared to lock their capital up until then in a bet.</p> donald-hobson pTGfJg3ZdRb3rJqA8 2019-02-17T21:01:29.480Z Comment by donald-hobson on Limiting an AGI's Context Temporally https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RPLDQpBX9Es2qfBMf/limiting-an-agi-s-context-temporally#h2YdeRj5MmM3Hd3PN <p>I suspect that an AGI with such a design could be much safer, if it was hardcoded to believe that time travel and hyperexponentially vast universes were impossible. Suppose that the AGI thought that there was a 0.0001% chance that it could use a galaxies worth of resources to send 10^30 paperclips back in time. Or create a parallel universe containing 3^^^3 paperclips. It will still chase those options. </p><p>If starting a long plan to take over the world costs it literally nothing, it will do it anyway. A sequence of short term plans, each designed to make as many paperclips as possible within the next few minutes could still end up dangerous. 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src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span> is <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="c_t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, and its power at time <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span> is <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, then <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_{t+1}=2p_t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="c_t=p_t"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> would mean that both power and paperclips grew exponentially. This is what would happen if power can be used to gain power and clips at the same time, with minimal loss of either from also pursuing the other. </p><p>If power can only be used to gain one thing at a time, and the rate power can grow at is less than the rate of time discount, then we are safer.</p><p>This proposal has several ways to be caught out, world wrecking assumptions that aren&#x27;t certain, but if used with care, a short time frame, an ontology that considers timetravel impossible, and say a utility function that maxes out at 10 clips, it probably won&#x27;t destroy the world. Throw in mild optimization and an impact penalty, and you have a system that relies on a disjunction of shaky assumptions, not a conjunction of them. </p><p>It is a CDT agent, or something that doesn&#x27;t try to punish you now so you make paperclips last week. A TDT agent might decide to take the policy of killing anyone who didn&#x27;t make clips before it was turned on, causing humans that predict this to make clips.</p><p>I suspect that it would be possible to build such an agent, prove that there are no weird failure modes left, and turn it on, with a small chance of destroying the world. I&#x27;m not sure why you would do that. Once you understand the system well enough to say its safe-ish, what vital info do yo gain from turning it on?</p><p></p> donald-hobson h2YdeRj5MmM3Hd3PN 2019-02-17T18:32:43.272Z Comment by donald-hobson on Extraordinary ethics require extraordinary arguments https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GjmfXBcgzxn33FoZ/extraordinary-ethics-require-extraordinary-arguments#gSgBpqThCShPXebf2 <p>Butterfly effects essentially unpredictable, given your partial knowledge of the world. Sure, you doing homework could cause a tornado in Texas, but it&#x27;s equally likely to prevent that. To actually predict which, you would have to calculate the movement of every gust of air around the world. Otherwise your shuffling an already well shuffled pack of cards. Bear in mind that you have no reason to distinguish the particular action of &quot;doing homework&quot; from a vast set of other actions. If you really did know what actions would stop the Texas tornado, they might well look like random thrashing. </p><p>What you can calculate is the reliable effects of doing your homework. So, given bounded rationality, you are probably best to base your decisions on those. The fact that this only involves homework might suggest that you have an internal conflict between a part of yourself that thinks about careers, and a short term procrastinator.</p><p>Most people who aren&#x27;t particularly ethical still do more good than harm. (If everyone looks out for themselves, everyone has someone to look out for them. The law stops most of the bad mutual defections in prisoners dilemmas) Evil genius trying to trick you into doing harm are much rarer than moderately competent nice people trying to get your help to do good. </p><p></p> donald-hobson gSgBpqThCShPXebf2 2019-02-17T17:19:53.640Z Comment by donald-hobson on Short story: An AGI's Repugnant Physics Experiment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5jqkysmvosnnLBL8/short-story-an-agi-s-repugnant-physics-experiment#KB7h8aTp5PRdbshBx <p>This is an example of a pascals mugging. Tiny probabilities of vast rewards can produce weird behavior. The best known solution is either a bounded utility function, or a antipascalene agent. (An agent that ignores the best x% and worst y% of possible worlds when calculating expected utilities. It can be money pumped)</p> donald-hobson KB7h8aTp5PRdbshBx 2019-02-14T15:31:50.252Z Comment by donald-hobson on Probability space has 2 metrics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63TcB9j7gv8Ampz8u/probability-space-has-2-metrics#zdk9HatmPESuqyPm7 <p>Get a pack of cards in which some cards are blue on both sides, and some are red on one side and blue on the other. Pick a random card from the pile. If the subject is shown one side of the card, and its blue, they gain a bit of evidence that the card is blue on both sides. Give them the option to bet on the colour of the other side of the card, before and after they see the first side. Invert the prospect theory curve to get from implicit probability to betting behaviour. The people should perform a larger update in log odds when the pack is mostly one type of card, over when the pack is 50 : 50. </p> donald-hobson zdk9HatmPESuqyPm7 2019-02-11T22:50:32.220Z Comment by donald-hobson on How important is it that LW has an unlimited supply of karma? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgvwhokzYArtBKxtW/how-important-is-it-that-lw-has-an-unlimited-supply-of-karma#SLYY8Xy9MhfRi27Hf <p>I suspect that if voting reduced your own karma, some people wouldn&#x27;t vote. As it becomes obvious that this is happening, more people stop voting, until karma just stops flowing at all. (The people who persistently vote anyway all run out of karma.)</p> donald-hobson SLYY8Xy9MhfRi27Hf 2019-02-11T15:21:06.773Z Comment by donald-hobson on Probability space has 2 metrics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63TcB9j7gv8Ampz8u/probability-space-has-2-metrics#d22wnSWqCkQ7a3avH <p>Fixed, thanks.</p> donald-hobson d22wnSWqCkQ7a3avH 2019-02-11T10:55:11.889Z Propositional Logic, Syntactic Implication https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PKJzabrDRazNhX3bh/propositional-logic-syntactic-implication <h1>Propositional Logic</h1><h2>Some Definitions</h2><p>Propositional logic is a simplified model of what it means to prove things. The statements that propositional logic can work with are called propositions. 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padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.004em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">⋯</span></span></span></span></span></span> as well as anything of the form <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i{X}{Y}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> where <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="X"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="Y"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span> are propositions. Note for pedants, this description allows the existence of propositions that can&#x27;t be broken down into a finite number of primitives, we don&#x27;t want such propositions. </p><p>Let <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb A"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> be the set of all propositions formed by taking any arbitrary propositions <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="X"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span>, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="Y"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="Z"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.04em;">Z</span></span></span></span></span></span>, in any of the following three arrangements. </p><p>1) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i{X}{\i{Y}{X}}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>2) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i{\i{X}{\i YZ}}{\i{\i XY}{\i XZ}}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.04em;">Z</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.04em;">Z</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>3) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i {\not{\not X}}X"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊥</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊥</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>The set <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb A"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is the set of axioms, and the three forms shown above are the infinite axiom schema. For example, taking <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="X=p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="Y=\not {p_2}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊥</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> then applying the first schema gets <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i{p_1}{\i{\not{p_2}}{p_1}}\in \mathbb A"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊥</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. So this is an axiom.</p><p>We say that a set of propositions <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="S"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.032em;">S</span></span></span></span></span></span> implies another proposition <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span></span>, when there exists a proof of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span></span> from <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="S"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.032em;">S</span></span></span></span></span></span>. Write this as <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="S\vdash p"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.032em;">S</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊢</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span></span>.</p><p>A proof of a proposition <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span></span> form <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="S"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.032em;">S</span></span></span></span></span></span> is a list <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span></span></span></span> of propositions of length <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="n\in\mathbb N"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">N</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> such that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_n=p"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span></span> and for each <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="i\leq n"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span></span></span>, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> fulfills at least one of the following 3 conditions.</p><p>1) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_i\in S"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.032em;">S</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p>2) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_i\in \mathbb A"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p>3) <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\exists j,k<i:L_j=\i{L_k}{L_i}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∃</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">j</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">k</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&lt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">j</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">k</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> This is called Modus ponens </p><h2>Example Proof</h2><p> For example, here is a proof of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i{p}{p}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display"><span class="mjx-math" style="width: 100%;" aria-label="L_1= (\i{\und Xp}{\i{\und Y{\i pp}}{ \und Zp}}\implies \\ \i{\i{\und Xp}{\und Y{\i pp}}}{ \i{\und Xp}{\und Zp}})"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="width: 100%;" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-stack" style="width: 100%; vertical-align: -2.992em;"><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.01em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.024em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 2.824em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.84em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.04em;">Z</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0.442em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.01em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.024em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 2.824em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.84em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.04em;">Z</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><p> Formed using the second axiom schema.</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_2=\i{\und Xp}{\i{\und Y{\i pp}}{ \und Xp}}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.01em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; letter-spacing: -0.135em; margin: 0px 0.113em 0px -0.093em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.024em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 2.824em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></div><p>Is then created using the first axiom schema</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_3=\i{\i{p}{\i pp}}{ \i pp}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></div><p> Can be produced by modus ponens because <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_1=\i{L_2}{L_3}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_4=\i{\und Xp}{\i{\und Yp}{ \und Xp}}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">4</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.82em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.182em;">Y</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-itable"><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-cell"><span class="mjx-op" style="padding-left: 0.598em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="padding-top: 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-delim-h"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px -0.109em 0px 0.024em;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin-right: 0.01em; padding-top: 0.108em; margin-bottom: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.108em; padding-bottom: 0.488em; margin: 0px 0.024em 0px -0.109em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-row"><span class="mjx-under" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-top: 0.236em; padding-bottom: 0.141em; padding-left: 0.776em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></div><p>Is allowed by using axiom schema 1 again.</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_5=\i pp"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">5</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></div><p>Follows by modus ponens again because <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="L_3=\i{L_4}{L_5}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">4</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">5</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>.</p><h2> Philosophically Important Takeaways</h2><p>The notion of mathematical proof is fully formalized. There is an entirely mechanical, and fairly fast, method of verifying proofs. Proofs can be generated in a finite amount of time, by brute force search, but this can be much slower. </p><p>The proof framework only believes things that you have actually proved in it. From our point of view outside the framework, the proof of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i pp"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> also shows that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\i qq"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em; padding-right: 0.014em;">q</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em; padding-right: 0.014em;">q</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>, but to actually prove that within the framework, you have to go through all the steps again. </p> donald-hobson PKJzabrDRazNhX3bh 2019-02-10T18:12:16.748Z Probability space has 2 metrics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63TcB9j7gv8Ampz8u/probability-space-has-2-metrics <p>A metric is technically defined as a function from pairs of points to the non negitive reals. <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; 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src: local('MathJax_Math BoldItalic'), local('MathJax_Math-BoldItalic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIx; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-weight: bold; font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-R; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-B; 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src: local('MathJax_Script'), local('MathJax_Script-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Script-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Script-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Script-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R; src: local('MathJax_Typewriter'), local('MathJax_Typewriter-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B; src: local('MathJax_Main Bold'), local('MathJax_Main-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I; src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="d:X\times X \rightarrow [0,\infty)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">×</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.024em;">X</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">→</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∞</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> With the properties that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="d(x,y)=d(y,x)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="d(x,y)=0 \iff x=y"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟺</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="d(x,y)+d(y,z)\geq d(x,z)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">z</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≥</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">z</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>.</p><p>Intuitively, a metric is a way of measuring how similar points are. Which points are nearby which others. Probabilities can be represented in several different ways, including the standard <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p\in(0,1)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> range and the log odds <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b\in(-\infty,\infty)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∞</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∞</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. They are related by <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b=\log(\frac{p}{1-p})"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">log</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 1.401em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.981em; top: -1.342em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.981em; bottom: -0.859em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style=""><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 1.401em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.557em; vertical-align: -0.608em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="e^b-1=\frac{1}{1-p}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: 0.513em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 1.401em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.981em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.981em; bottom: -0.859em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style=""><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 1.401em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.578em; vertical-align: -0.608em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p=\frac{e^b}{e^b+1}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 1.657em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 2.343em; top: -1.655em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup" style=""><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 83.3%; vertical-align: 0.435em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 2.343em; bottom: -0.944em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style=""><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 83.3%; vertical-align: 0.347em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 1.657em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.838em; vertical-align: -0.668em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span></span></span></span></span> (equations algebraically equivalent)</p><p>The two metrics of importance are the baysian metric <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span></span></span> and the probability metric <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="P"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.109em;">P</span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B(b_1,b_2)=\left|b_1-b_2\right|=\left|\log\left(\frac{p_1(1-p_2)}{p_2(1-p_1)}\right)\right|"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo" style="vertical-align: -1.001em;"><span class="mjx-delim-v"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="line-height: 0.526em; margin-bottom: 0.014em; margin-top: -0.114em;">∣ ∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">log</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char"></span></span><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 1.551em; padding-bottom: 1.551em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 4.484em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="width: 4.484em; top: -1.59em;"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="width: 4.484em; bottom: -1.09em;"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 4.484em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 2.68em; vertical-align: -1.09em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 1.551em; padding-bottom: 1.551em;">)</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="vertical-align: -1.001em;"><span class="mjx-delim-v"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="line-height: 0.526em; margin-bottom: 0.014em; margin-top: -0.114em;">∣ ∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="P(p_1,p_2)=\left|p_1-p_2\right|=\left|\frac{1}{e^{b_1}+1}-\frac{1}{e^{b_2}+1}\right|"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.109em;">P</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo" style="vertical-align: -0.671em;"><span class="mjx-delim-v"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="line-height: 0.391em; margin-bottom: 0.014em; margin-top: -0.114em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 3.051em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="width: 3.051em; top: -1.368em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="width: 3.051em; bottom: -0.945em;"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: 0.409em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 83.3%; vertical-align: -0.267em; padding-right: 0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 3.051em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 2.312em; vertical-align: -0.945em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 3.051em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="width: 3.051em; top: -1.368em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="width: 3.051em; bottom: -0.945em;"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: 0.409em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 83.3%; vertical-align: -0.267em; padding-right: 0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 3.051em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 2.312em; vertical-align: -0.945em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="vertical-align: -0.671em;"><span class="mjx-delim-v"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="line-height: 0.391em; margin-bottom: 0.014em; margin-top: -0.114em;">∣</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><p>Suppose you have a prior, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> in log odds, for some proposition. Suppose you update on some evidence that is twice as likely to appear if the proposition is true, to get a posterior, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> in log odds. Then <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B(b_1,b_2)=\log(2)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">log</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. The metric <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span></span></span> measures how much evidence you need to move between probabilities.</p><p>Suppose you have a choice of actions, the first action will make an event of utility <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span></span></span></span> happen with probability <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, the other will cause the probability of the event to be <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. How much should you care. <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="uP(p_1,p_2)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.109em;">P</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p><p>The first metric stretches probabilities near 0 or 1 and is uniform in log odds. The second squashes all log odds with large absolute value together, and is uniform in probabilities. The first is used for baysian updates, the second for expected utility calculations. </p><p>Suppose an imperfect agent reasoned using a single metric, something in between these two. Some metric function less squashed up than <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="P"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.109em;">P</span></span></span></span></span></span> but more squashed than <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span></span></span> around the ends. Suppose it crudely substituted this new metric into its reasoning processes whenever one of the other two metrics was required.</p><p>In decision theory problems, such an agent would rate small differences in probability as more important than they really were when facing probabilities near 0 or 1. From the inside, the difference between no chance and 0.01, would feel far larger than the distance between probabilities 0.46 and 0.47.</p><p><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zJZvoiwydJ5zvzTHK/the-allais-paradox">The Allais Paradox</a></p><p>However, the metric is more squashed than <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="B"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span></span></span>, so moving from a 10000:1 odds to 1000:1 odds seems to require less evidence than moving from 10:1 to 1:1. When facing small probabilities, such an agent would perform larger baysian updates than really necessary, based on weak evidence. </p><p><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2AD2LgtKgkRNPj2a/privileging-the-hypothesis">Privileging the Hypothesis</a></p><p>As both of these behaviors correspond to known human biases, could humans be using only a single metric on probability space?</p><p></p> donald-hobson 63TcB9j7gv8Ampz8u 2019-02-10T00:28:34.859Z Comment by donald-hobson on X-risks are a tragedies of the commons https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P4sn9MNrFv6RR3moc/x-risks-are-a-tragedies-of-the-commons#9skJFCrEBmKd5FSrj <p>This is making the somewhat dubious assumption that X risks are not so neglected that even a &quot;selfish&quot; individual would work to reduce them. Of course, in the not too unreasonable scenario where the cosmic commons is divided up evenly, and you use your portion to make a vast number of duplicates of yourself, the utility, if your utility is linear in copies of yourself, would be vast. Or you might hope to live for a ridiculously long time in a post singularity world. </p><p>The effect that a single person can have on X risks is small, but if they were selfish with no time discounting, it would be a better option than hedonism now. Although a third alternative of sitting in a padded room being very very safe could be even better.</p> donald-hobson 9skJFCrEBmKd5FSrj 2019-02-07T17:50:13.823Z Comment by donald-hobson on (notes on) Policy Desiderata for Superintelligent AI: A Vector Field Approach https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hyfedqhgCQriBB9wT/notes-on-policy-desiderata-for-superintelligent-ai-a-vector#N4q7nrh7aGbanDHLh <p>I suspect that the social institutions of Law and Money are likely to become increasingly irrelevant background to the development of ASI.</p><p><strong>Deterrence Fails.</strong></p><p>If you believe that there is a good chance of immortal utopia, and a large chance of paperclips in the next 5 years, the threat that the cops might throw you in jail, (on the off chance that they are still in power) is negligible.</p><p><strong>The law is blind to safety.</strong></p><p>The law is bureaucratic and ossified. It is probably not employing much top talent, as it&#x27;s hard to tell top talent from the rest if you aren&#x27;t as good yourself (and it doesn&#x27;t have the budget or glamor to attract them). Telling whether an organization is on line for not destroying the world is HARD. The safety protocols are being invented on the fly by each team, the system is very complex and technical and only half built. The teams that would destroy the world aren&#x27;t idiots, they are still producing long papers full of maths and talking about the importance of safety a lot. There are no examples to work with, or understood laws. </p><p>Likely as not (not really, too much conjugation here), you get some random inspector with a checklist full of thing that sound like a good idea to people who don&#x27;t understand the problem. All AI work has to have an emergency stop button that turns the power off. (The idea of an AI circumventing this was not considered by the person who wrote the list).</p><p>All the law can really do is tell what public image an AI group want&#x27;s to present, provide funding to everyone, and get in everyone&#x27;s way. Telling cops to &quot;smash all GPU&#x27;s&quot; would have an effect on AI progress. The fund vs smash axis is about the only lever they have. They can&#x27;t even tell an AI project from a maths convention from a normal programming project if the project leaders are incentivized to obfuscate.</p><p>After ASI, governments are likely only relevant if the ASI was programmed to care about them. Neither paperclippers or FAI will care about the law. The law might be relevant if we had tasky ASI that was not trivial to leverage into a decisive strategic advantage. (An AI that can put a strawberry on a plate without destroying the world, but that&#x27;s about the limit of its safe operation.) </p><p>Such an AI embodies an understanding of intelligence and could easily be accidentally modified to destroy the world. Such scenarios might involve ASI and timescales long enough for the law to act.</p><p>I don&#x27;t know how the law can handle something that, can easily destroy the world, has some economic value (if you want to flirt danger) and, with further research could grant supreme power. The discovery must be limited to a small group of people, (law of large number of nonexperts, one will do something stupid). I don&#x27;t think the law could notice what it was, after all the robot in-front of the inspector only puts strawberries on plates. They can&#x27;t tell how powerful it would be with an unbounded utility function.</p><p></p><p></p> donald-hobson N4q7nrh7aGbanDHLh 2019-02-06T00:27:27.407Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why is this utilitarian calculus wrong? Or is it? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGGC4cqcWtR589bdC/why-is-this-utilitarian-calculus-wrong-or-is-it#jSkvPqbgm22JMyGCj <p>Firstly, you are confusing dollars and utils.</p><p>If you buy this product for $100, you gain the use of it, at value U[30] to yourself. The workers who made it gain $80, at value U[80] to yourself, because of your utilitarian preferences. Total value U[110]</p><p>If the alternative was a product of cost $100, which you value the use of at U[105], but all the money goes to greedy rich people to be squandered, then you would choose the first.</p><p>If the alternative was spending $100 to do something insanely morally important, U[3^^^3], you would do that.</p><p>If the alternative was a product of cost $100, that was of value U[100] to yourself, and some of the money would go to people that weren&#x27;t that rich U[15], you would do that.</p><p>If you could give the money to people twice as desperate as the workers, at U[160], you would do that.</p><p>There are also good reasons why you might want to discourage monopolies. Any desire to do so is not included in the expected value calculations. But the basic principle is that utilitarianism can never tell you if some action is a good use of a resource, unless you tell it what else that resource could have been used for.</p> donald-hobson jSkvPqbgm22JMyGCj 2019-01-28T17:06:33.310Z Comment by donald-hobson on Solomonoff induction and belief in God https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jQDRMwrj3BibawvDs/solomonoff-induction-and-belief-in-god#uh5iZNcCpBabjNRtS <p>The information needed to describe our particular laws of physics &lt; info needed to describe the concept of &quot;habitable universe&quot; in general &lt; info needed to describe human-like mind.</p><p>The biggest slip is the equivocation of the word intelligence. The Kolmogorov complexity of AIXI-tl is quite small, so intelligence&#x27;s in that sense of the word are likely to exist in the universal prior.</p><p>Humanlike minds have not only the clear mark of evolution, but the mark of stone age tribal interactions across their psyche. An arbitrary mind will be bizarre and alien. Wondering if such a mind might be benevolent is hugely privileging the hypothesis. The most likely way to make a humanlike mind is the process that created humans. So in most of the universes with humanoid deities, those deities evolved. This becomes the simulation hypothesis. </p><p>The best hypothesis is still the laws of quantum physics or whatever.</p> donald-hobson uh5iZNcCpBabjNRtS 2019-01-28T16:48:01.902Z Comment by donald-hobson on For what do we need Superintelligent AI? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/udcoqsJc8stfhinMf/for-what-do-we-need-superintelligent-ai#iqpQsrD8g7YjTotMa <p>We don&#x27;t know what we are missing out on without super intelligence. There might be all sorts of amazing things that we would just never consider to make, or dismiss as obviously impossible, without super intelligence. </p><p>I am pointing out that being able to make a FAI that is a bit smarter than you (smartness not really on a single scale, vastly different cognitive architecture, is deep blue smarter than a horse?), involves solving almost all the hard problems in alignment. When we have done all that hard work, we might as well tell it to make itself a trillion times smarter, the cost to us is negligible, the benefit could be huge. </p><p>AI can also serve as as a values repository. In most circumstances, values are going to drift over time, possibly due evolutionary forces. If we don&#x27;t want to end up as hardscrapple frontier replicators, we need some kind of singleton. Most types of government or committee have their own forms of value drift, and couldn&#x27;t keep enough of an absolute grip on power to stop any rebellions for billions of years. I have no ideas other than Friendly ASI oversight for how to stop someone in a cosmically vast society from creating a UFASI. Sufficiently draconian banning of anything at all technological could stop anyone from creating UFASI long term, and also stop most things since the industrial revolution.</p><p>The only reasonable scenario that I can see in which FAI is not created and the cosmic commons gets put to good use is if a small group of likeminded individuals, or single person, gains exclusive access to selfrep nanotech and mind uploading. They then use many copies of themselves to police the world. They do all programming and only run code they can formally prove isn&#x27;t dangerous. No-one is allowed to touch anything Turing complete.</p> donald-hobson iqpQsrD8g7YjTotMa 2019-01-25T23:43:23.412Z Comment by donald-hobson on Allowing a formal proof system to self improve while avoiding Lobian obstacles. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hchfRj4qa4hFZxhKM/allowing-a-formal-proof-system-to-self-improve-while#C8fqiPPWHStTSMyue <p>Both blanks are the identity function.</p><p>Here is some psudo code</p><p>class Prover:</p><p>____def new(self):</p><p>________self.ps=[PA]</p><p>____def prove(self, p, s, b):</p><p>________assert p in self.ps</p><p>________return p(s,b)</p><p>____def upgrade(self, p1, p2, b):</p><p> ________if self.prove(p1,&quot;forall s:(exists b2: p2(s,b2))=&gt; (exists b1: p2(s,b1))&quot;, b)</p><p> ____________self.ps.append(p2)</p><p>prover=Prover()</p><p>prover.upgrade(PA, nPA, proof)</p><p>Where PA is a specific peano arithmatic proof checker. nPA is another proof checker. and &#x27;proof&#x27; is a proof that anything nPA can prove, PA can prove too.</p><p></p> donald-hobson C8fqiPPWHStTSMyue 2019-01-24T14:25:29.195Z Allowing a formal proof system to self improve while avoiding Lobian obstacles. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hchfRj4qa4hFZxhKM/allowing-a-formal-proof-system-to-self-improve-while <p>[Epistemic status, can&#x27;t spot a mistake, but am not confidant that there isn&#x27;t one, if you find anything please say so. Posting largely because the community value of a new good idea is larger than any harm that might be caused by a flawed proof. ]</p><p>Suppose you have an automatic proof checker. Its connected to a source of statements that are sometimes correct proofs, and sometimes not. The proof checker wants to reject all false proofs, and accept as many of the true proofs as possible. 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src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb S"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">S</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> to be a set of statements in a particular formalism, say those that are grammatically well defined in PA. Let <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb B"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> be any sequence from some alphabet of symbols. Let</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{L}=\left\{\mathbb S\times\mathbb B \rightarrow \{\top,\bot\}\right\}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">S</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">×</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">→</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊤</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊥</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">}</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">}</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><p>and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb V\subset \mathbb L"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊂</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">L</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> be the set of programs that have the property that </p><p></p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\forall v\in \mathbb V:\forall s\in \mathbb S:\left(\exists b\in\mathbb B:v(s,b)\right)\implies s"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∀</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∀</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">S</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∃</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span></span></span></span></div><p>In other words, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb V"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is the set of all programs that never prove false statements. We should never leave <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb V"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> or need to talk about any program not in it.</p><p>For <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="v \in \mathbb V"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> write <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="v[s]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> to mean <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\exists b\in\mathbb B:v(s,b)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∃</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">B</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span>. Ie <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="v"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">v</span></span></span></span></span></span> proves <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="s"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>A simple setup would consist of a starting program <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1\in \mathbb V"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">V</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> and a rule that says,</p><p> If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1[p_2[s]\implies s]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> then you can add <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> to your list of trusted provers. If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> proves the soundness of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, then you can accept any statement when given a proof of it in <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p><p>The lobian obstacle is that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> must be strictly weaker than <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, in that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can prove any statement that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can, but <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can prove the soundness of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can&#x27;t prove its own soundness. This means that each trusted prover has to be strictly weaker than the one that generated it. You could start with PA+3^^^3 and say that a few weakenings aren&#x27;t a problem, but that isn&#x27;t an elegant solution.</p><p>Note: You can&#x27;t get around this problem using cycles. Suppose</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display"><span class="mjx-math" style="width: 100%;" aria-label="a[b[s]\implies s]\\ b[c[s]\implies s]\\ "><span class="mjx-mrow" style="width: 100%;" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-stack" style="width: 100%; vertical-align: -2.692em;"><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0.442em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0.925em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><p>This would imply</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display"><span class="mjx-math" style="width: 100%;" aria-label="a[b[c[s]\implies s]\implies (c[s]\implies s)]\\ a[b[c[s]\implies s]]\\ a[c[s]\implies s]"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="width: 100%;" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-stack" style="width: 100%; vertical-align: -2.984em;"><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0.442em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0.442em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><p> So any cycle could be shrunk by 1, and inductively, shrunk to a self trusting system.</p><p></p><p>I propose instead that you use the rule.</p><p>If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1[p_2[s]\implies p_1[s]]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> then accept any future proofs that are accepted by <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, and give <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> all rights given to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, including taking <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2[p_3\implies p_2]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> to mean that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_3"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is accepted, and so on recursively. If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is sound, then <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1[p_2[s]\implies p_1[s]]\implies (p_2[s]\implies p_1[s])"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⟹</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0.278em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> so anything that is proven by <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can be proven by <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>. If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> isn&#x27;t sound, it can prove anything anyway. </p><p>Note that if <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is a straightforward isomorphism of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> then they are easily proven equivalent. However, if <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_2"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> says &quot;run Turing machine <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="T"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.12em;">T</span></span></span></span></span></span> for <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="length(b)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.003em;">g</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">h</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> steps, if it doesn&#x27;t halt, check if <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span></span></span></span> is a valid proof of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="s"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span></span></span></span></span>, if <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="T"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.12em;">T</span></span></span></span></span></span> does halt, return <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\top"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">⊤</span></span></span></span></span></span>&quot; then it could be equivalent to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> from a second order logic perspective, but <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> can&#x27;t prove that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="T"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.12em;">T</span></span></span></span></span></span> never halts.</p><p>Still, this rule allows us to prove anything provable in <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> and only things provable in <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="p_1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, while also allowing the user to add shorthands and semantic sugar. </p><p>Note that the &quot;proof&quot; <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="b"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">b</span></span></span></span></span></span> could just be the number of processor cycles you want to run a proof search for before giving up. In fact, this framework lets you swap and mix between hand proved results, and automatically proved results (with search time cut off) as you see fit. </p><p>This formalism allows a any system containing a proof checker to automatically upgrade itself to a version that has the same Godelian equivalence class, but is more suited to the hardware available.</p><p></p> donald-hobson hchfRj4qa4hFZxhKM 2019-01-23T23:04:43.524Z Comment by donald-hobson on Life can be better than you think https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/25LmKByWpJh6ND45w/life-can-be-better-than-you-think#CQ29hD7mCCCEwrCPA <p>I consider emotions to be data, not goals. From this point of view, deliberately maximizing happiness for its own sake is a lost purpose. Its like writing extra numbers on your bank balance. If however your happiness was reliably too low, adjusting it upwards with drugs would be sensible. Whats the best level of happiness, the one that produces optimal behavior.</p><p>I also find my emotions to be quite weak. And I can set them consciously change them. Just thinking &quot;be happy&quot;, or &quot;be sad&quot; and feeling happy or sad. It actually feels similar to imagining a mental image, sound or smell. </p> donald-hobson CQ29hD7mCCCEwrCPA 2019-01-22T21:09:26.718Z Comment by donald-hobson on Too Smart for My Own Good https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/66BsjQtX7wAGhP4tB/too-smart-for-my-own-good#ngnM4cYE3GbZfitpe <p>Writing random bits of code is a good hobby. It sounds like you prefer doing that than learning to play jazz, so forget the jazz and just code. I was having a hard job understanding quantum spin, and wrote some code to help. It was reasonably helpful. Then again, quantum spin is all about complex matrix multiplication, and numpy has functions for that, so I was basically using it as a matrix arithmetic calculator. Another example, I found that I kept getting distracted, so I wrote code that randomly beeped, asked what I was doing, and saved the results to a file. It worked quite well. </p> donald-hobson ngnM4cYE3GbZfitpe 2019-01-22T20:43:49.021Z Comment by donald-hobson on Should questions be called "questions" or "confusions" (or "other")? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h7u9prJqbDk7dQ5WM/should-questions-be-called-questions-or-confusions-or-other#rpNG2cF5Womi3NkCe <p>Sure, that sounds interesting. I have a bunch of things that I&#x27;m confused about.</p> donald-hobson rpNG2cF5Womi3NkCe 2019-01-22T09:00:10.438Z Comment by donald-hobson on Following human norms https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eBd6WvzhuqduCkYv3/following-human-norms#fP7KFjDgM68jDyT5w <p>What if it follows human norms with dangerously superhuman skill.</p><p>Suppose humans had a really strong norm that you were allowed to say whatever you like, and encouraged to say things others will find interesting.</p><p>Among humans, the most we can exert is a small optimization for the not totally dull. </p><p>The AI produces a sequence that effectively hacks the human brain and sets interest to maximum. </p> donald-hobson fP7KFjDgM68jDyT5w 2019-01-21T21:27:40.185Z Comment by donald-hobson on Debate AI and the Decision to Release an AI https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8R9XcZKZ4f38aRJ9A/debate-ai-and-the-decision-to-release-an-ai#jfwiWaL7m8nGYjELp <p>You assert that &quot;Naturally, it is much worse to release a misaligned AI than to not release an aligned AI&quot;. </p><p>I would disagree with that, if the odds of aligned AI, conditional on you not releasing this one were 50:50, then both mistakes are equally bad. If someone else is definitely going to release a paper-clipper next week, then it would make sense to release an AI with a 1% chance of being friendly now. (Bear in mind that no one would release an AI if they didn&#x27;t think it was friendly, so you might be defecting in an epistemic prisoners dilemma.)</p><p>I would put more weight on human researchers debating which AI is save before any code is run. I would also think that the space of friendly AIs is tiny compared to the space of all AIs, so making an AI that you put as much as 1% chance on being friendly is almost as hard as building a 99% chance friendly AI.</p> donald-hobson jfwiWaL7m8nGYjELp 2019-01-19T17:19:04.971Z Comment by donald-hobson on Synthesising divergent preferences: an example in population ethics https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msJexF6sxojRHRLbi/synthesising-divergent-preferences-an-example-in-population#pYdtWRBvfcESSabA6 <p>I don&#x27;t think all AI catastrophes come from oversimplification of value functions. Suppose we had 1000 weak preferances, <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; display: table-cell!important; width: 10000em} .mjx-math {display: inline-block; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0} .mjx-math * {display: inline-block; -webkit-box-sizing: content-box!important; -moz-box-sizing: content-box!important; box-sizing: content-box!important; text-align: left} .mjx-numerator {display: block; text-align: center} .mjx-denominator {display: block; 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src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Bold'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bx; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-I; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Italic'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Ix; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-R; src: local('MathJax_Script'), local('MathJax_Script-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Script-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Script-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Script-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R; src: local('MathJax_Typewriter'), local('MathJax_Typewriter-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B; src: local('MathJax_Main Bold'), local('MathJax_Main-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I; src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_0,\cdots u_{999}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.004em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">⋯</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">999</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> , with <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="U_\texttt{total}=\sum_{i=0}^{999}u_i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.084em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.084em;">U</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-type-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">total</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-munderover MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size1-R" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">∑</span></span></span><span class="mjx-stack" style="vertical-align: -0.31em;"><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-bottom: 0.411em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">999</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> . Each of which is supposed to be <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_i\in [0,1]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> but due to some weird glitch in the definition of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_{42}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">42</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> , it has an unforeseen maximum of 1000,000, and that maximum is paperclips. In this scenario, the AI is only as friendly as the least friendly piece.</p><p>Alternatively, if the value of each <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> is linear or convex in resources spent maximizing it, or other technical conditions hold, then the AI just picks a single <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_i"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> to focus all resources on. If some term is very easily satisfied, say <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="u_3"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>is a slight preference that it not wipe out all beetles, then we get a few beetles living in a little beetle box, and 99.99...% of resources turned into whatever kind of paperclip it would otherwise have made. </p><p>If we got everyone in the world who is &quot;tech literate&quot; to program a utility function ( in some easy to use utility function programming tool?), bounded them all and summed the lot together, then I suspect that the AI would still do nothing like optimizing human values. (To me, this looks like a disaster waiting to happen)</p> donald-hobson pYdtWRBvfcESSabA6 2019-01-18T23:50:44.807Z Comment by donald-hobson on Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x3fNwSe5aWZb5yXEG/reframing-superintelligence-comprehensive-ai-services-as#EbYFig8QJNsNRKKpe <p>Any algorithm that gets stuck in local optimum so easily will not be very intelligent or very useful. Humans have, at least somewhat, the ability to notice that there should be a good plan in this region, find and execute that plan successfully. We don&#x27;t get stuck in local optima as much as current RL algorithms. </p><p>AIXI would be very good at making complex plans and doing well first time. You could tell it the rules of chess and it would play PERFECT chess first time. It does not need lots of examples to work from. Give it any data that you happen to have available, and it will become very competent, and able to carry out complex novel tasks first time. </p><p>Current reinforcement learning algorithms aren&#x27;t very good at breaking out of boxes because they follow the local incentive gradient. (I say not very good at, because a few algorithms have exploited glitches in a way thats a bit &quot;break out the boxish&quot;) In some simple domains, its possible to follow the incentive gradient all the way to the bottom. In other environments, human actions already form a good starting point, and following the incentive gradient from there can make the solution a bit better. </p><p>I agree that most of the really dangerous break out the boxes probably can&#x27;t be reached by local gradient decent from a non adversarial starting point. (I do not want to have to rely on this)</p><p>I agree that you can attach loads of sensors to say postmen, and train a big neural net to control a humanoid robot to deliver letters, given millions of training examples. You can probably automate many of the training weight fiddling tasks currently done by grad student descent to make big neural nets work. </p><p>I agree that this could be somewhat useful economically, as a significant proportion of economic productivity could be automated. </p><p>What I am saying is that this form of AI is sufficiently limited that there are still large incentives to make AGI and the CAIS can&#x27;t protect us from making an unfriendly AGI.</p><p>I&#x27;m also not sure how strong the self improvement can be when the service maker service is only making little tweaks to existing algorithms rather than designing strange new algorithms. I suspect you would get to a local optimum of a reinforcement learning algorithm producing very slight variations of reinforcement learning. This might be quite powerful, but not anywhere near the limit of self improving AGI.</p> donald-hobson EbYFig8QJNsNRKKpe 2019-01-10T18:12:10.211Z Comment by donald-hobson on Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x3fNwSe5aWZb5yXEG/reframing-superintelligence-comprehensive-ai-services-as#Czenu5RTLj29oo9CF <p>I disagree outright with</p><blockquote>Any long term planning processes that consider weird plans for achieving goals (similar to &quot;break out of the box&quot;) will typically not find any such plan and will be eliminated in favor of cognition that will actually help achieve the task.</blockquote><p>Part of the reason that AI alignment is hard is that <strong>The Box is FULL of Holes! Breaking Out is EASY!</strong></p><p>And the deeper reason for that is that we have no idea how to tell what&#x27;s a hole.</p><p>Suppose you want to set the service generator to make a robot that cleans cars. If you give a blow by blow formal description of what you mean by &quot;cleans cars&quot; then your &quot;service generator&quot; is just a compiler. If you do not give a complete specification of what you mean, where does the information that &quot;chopping off a nearby head to wipe windows with is unacceptable&quot; come from. If the service generator notices that cars need cleaning and build the service by itself, you have an AGI by another name.</p><p> Obviously, if you have large amounts of training data made by humans with joysticks, and the robot is sampling from the same distribution, then you should be fine. This system learns that dirtier windshields need more wiping from 100&#x27;s of examples of humans doing that, it doesn&#x27;t chop off any heads because the humans didn&#x27;t. </p><p>However, if you want the robot to display remotely novel behavior, then the distance between the training data and the new good solutions, becomes as large as the distance from the training data to bad solutions. If it&#x27;s smart enough to go to the shops and buy a sponge, without having that strategy hardcoded in when it was built, then its smart enough to break into your neighbors house and nick a sponge. </p><p>The only thing that distinguishes one from the other is what humans prefer.</p><p>Distinguishing low impact from high impact is also hard. </p><p>This might be a good approach, but I don&#x27;t feel it answers the question &quot;I have a humanoid robot a hypercomputer and a couple of toddlers, how can I build something to look after the kids for a few weeks (without destroying the world) ?&quot; So far, CAIS looks confused.</p> donald-hobson Czenu5RTLj29oo9CF 2019-01-09T16:08:22.239Z Comment by donald-hobson on What emotions would AIs need to feel? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iA6YqiJkZddanNk9x/what-emotions-would-ais-need-to-feel#3oij2cYgcpSsNtWw2 <p>Whether an AI feels emotions depends on how loose you are with the category &quot;emotion&quot;. Take the emotion of curiosity. Investigating the environment is sometimes beneficial, due to the value of information. Because this behavior is quite complex, and the payoff is rare and indirect, reinforcement learners will struggle to learn it by default. However, there was a substantial evolutionary pressure towards minds that would display curious behavior. Evolution, being the blind idiot god, built a few heuristics for value of information that were effective in the environment of evolutionary adaptation, and hard wired these to the pleasure center. </p><p>In the modern environment, curiosity takes on a life of its own, and is no longer a good indication of value of information. Curiosity is a lost purpose. </p><p>Does AIXI display curiosity? It&#x27;s calculating the value of information exactly. It will do a science experiment if and only if the expected usefullness of the data generated is greater than the expected cost of the experiment.</p><p>This is a meaningless semantic question, AIXI displays behavior that has some similarities to curiosity, and many differences. </p><p>I expect a from first principles AI, MIRI style, to have about as much emotion as AIXI. A bodge it till you make it AI could have something a bit closer to emotions. The Neural net bashers have put huristics that correlate to value of information into their reinforcement learners. An evolutionary algorithm might produce something like emotions, but probably a different set of emotions than the ones humans feel. An uploaded mind would have our emotions, as would a sufficiently neuromorphic AI.</p> donald-hobson 3oij2cYgcpSsNtWw2 2019-01-09T12:14:33.615Z Comment by donald-hobson on Imitation learning considered unsafe? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whRPLBZNQm3JD5Zv8/imitation-learning-considered-unsafe#jdEQtW9QBK4QnZaNB <p>Suppose you take a terabyte of data on human decisions and actions. You search for the shortest program that outputs the data, then see what gets outputted afterwards. The shortest program that outputs the data might look like a simulation of the universe with an arrow pointing to a particular hard drive. The &quot;imitator&quot; will guess at what file is next on the disk. </p><p>One problem for imitation learning is the difficulty in pointing out the human and separating them from the environment. The details of the humans decision might depend on what they had for lunch. (Of course, multiple different decisions might be good enough. But this illustrates that &quot;imitate a human&quot; isn&#x27;t a clear cut procedure. And you have to be sure that the virtual lunch doesn&#x27;t contain virtual mind control nanobots. ;-)</p><p>You could put a load of data about humans into a search for short programs that produce the same data. Hopefully the model produced will be some approximation of the universe. Hopefully, you have some way of cutting a human out of the model and putting them into a virtual box.</p><p>Alternatively you could use nanotech for mind uploading, and get a virtual human in a box. </p><p>If we have lots of compute and not much time, then uploading a team of AI researchers to really solve friendly AI is a good idea. </p><p>If we have a good enough understanding of &quot;imitation learning&quot;, and no nanotech, we might be able to get an AI to guess the researchers mental states given observational data. </p><p>An imitation of a human might be a super-fast intelligence, with a lot of compute, but it won&#x27;t be qualitatively super-intelligent.</p> donald-hobson jdEQtW9QBK4QnZaNB 2019-01-06T17:43:07.650Z Comment by donald-hobson on Will humans build goal-directed agents? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9zpT9dikrrebdq3Jf/will-humans-build-goal-directed-agents#zoq2oPF2hoMcqjCnf <p>Building a non goal directed agent is like building a cart out of non-wood materials. Goal directed behavior is relatively well understood. We know that most goal directed designs don&#x27;t do what we want. Most arrangements of wood do not form a functioning cart. </p><p>I suspect that a randomly selected agent from the space of all non goal directed agents is also useless or dangerous, in much the same way that a random arrangement of non wood materials is. </p><p>Now there are a couple of regions of design space that are not goal directed and look like they contain useful AI&#x27;s. We might be better off making our cart from Iron, but Iron has its own problems.</p> donald-hobson zoq2oPF2hoMcqjCnf 2019-01-05T13:03:44.242Z Comment by donald-hobson on Logical inductors in multistable situations. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQFiqbH6AfB7uYhQL/logical-inductors-in-multistable-situations#7ExihQ7FMqiv46Js7 <p>0.5 is the almost fixed point. Its the point where <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; display: table-cell!important; width: 10000em} .mjx-math {display: inline-block; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0} .mjx-math * {display: inline-block; -webkit-box-sizing: content-box!important; -moz-box-sizing: content-box!important; box-sizing: content-box!important; text-align: left} .mjx-numerator {display: block; text-align: center} .mjx-denominator {display: block; 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src: local('MathJax_Math BoldItalic'), local('MathJax_Math-BoldItalic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIx; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-weight: bold; font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-R; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-B; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Bold'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bx; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-I; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Italic'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Ix; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-R; src: local('MathJax_Script'), local('MathJax_Script-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Script-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Script-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Script-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R; src: local('MathJax_Typewriter'), local('MathJax_Typewriter-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B; src: local('MathJax_Main Bold'), local('MathJax_Main-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I; src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)-x"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span></span></span></span></span> goes from being positive to negative. If you take a sequence of continuous functions <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f_n(x)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> that converge pointwise to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> then there will exist a sequence <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="y_n"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.006em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> such that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f_n(y_n)=y_n"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.006em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.006em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}y_n=0.5"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-munderover"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">lim</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">→</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∞</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.006em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.5</span></span></span></span></span></span>. </p> donald-hobson 7ExihQ7FMqiv46Js7 2019-01-04T11:46:12.165Z Logical inductors in multistable situations. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQFiqbH6AfB7uYhQL/logical-inductors-in-multistable-situations <p>I was reading about logical induction at</p><p>https://intelligence.org/files/LogicalInduction.pdf</p><p>and understand how it resolves paradoxical self reference, but I&#x27;m not sure what the inductor will do in situations where multiple stable solutions exist. </p><p>Let <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; 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src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f:[0,1]\rightarrow [0,1]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">→</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p></p><p>If <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span></span></span> is continuous then it must have a fixed point. Even if it has finitely many discontinuities, it must have an &quot;almost fixed&quot; point. An <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="x"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span></span></span></span></span> such that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\forall \epsilon>0:inf_{y\in(x-\epsilon,x)}f(y)\leq x\leq \sup_{y\in(x,x+\epsilon)}f(y)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∀</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&gt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">:</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.06em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.275em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-munderover MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">sup</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.36em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∈</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p> However some <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span></span></span> have multiple such points. </p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)=\left\{\begin{array}{l l} 0&amp;x<\frac12\\ 1&amp;x\geq\frac12 \end{array}\right."><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 1.551em; padding-bottom: 1.551em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -1.391em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.641em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 0.5em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 2.641em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&lt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.641em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≥</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></div><p> Has &quot;almost fixed&quot; points at <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="0"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span></span></span></span></span>, <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\frac12"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span></span></span></span></span> and <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span>.</p><p>A similar continuous <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span></span></span></span></span> is</p><p></p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)=\left\{\begin{array}{l l} 0&amp;x\leq\frac13\\ 3x-1&amp; \frac13\leq x \leq \frac23\\ 1&amp;x\geq\frac23 \end{array}\right."><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo" style="vertical-align: -1.41em;"><span class="mjx-delim-v"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.667em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">⎧</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="line-height: 0.247em; margin-bottom: 0.087em; margin-top: -0.137em;">⎪ ⎪ ⎪</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="padding-top: 0.961em; padding-bottom: 0.961em;">⎨</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="line-height: 0.247em; margin-bottom: 0.087em; margin-top: -0.137em;">⎪ ⎪ ⎪</span><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size4-R" style="margin-top: -0.217em; padding-bottom: 1.182em;">⎩</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -2.334em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.656em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 2.794em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 4.709em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.686em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.456em; vertical-align: -0.485em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.856em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.686em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.456em; vertical-align: -0.485em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.686em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.456em; vertical-align: -0.485em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.656em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.03em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≥</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.686em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">3</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.456em; vertical-align: -0.485em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></div><p> With </p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)=x"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span></span></span></span></div><p>Having every point fixed.</p><p>Consider <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\phi_n=&quot;f(\mathbb{E}_n(\phi_n))&quot;"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=<span class="mjx-charbox MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-bottom: 0.314em;">"</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">"</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>These functions make <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\phi_n"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> the logical inductor version of &quot;this statement is true&quot;. Multiple values can be consistently applied to this logically uncertain variable. None of the possible values allow a money pump, so the technique of showing that some behaviour would make the market exploitable that is used repeatedly in the paper don&#x27;t work here. </p><p>Is the value of <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{E}_n(\phi_n)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> uniquely defined or does it depend on the implementation details of the logical inductor? Does it tend to a limit as <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="n\rightarrow \infty"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">→</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">∞</span></span></span></span></span></span> ? Is there a sense in which</p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)=\left\{\begin{array}{l l} 0.83&amp; 0.82\leq x \leq 0.84\\ 0.1&amp;else \end{array}\right."><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.95em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 1.778em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.83</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 6.795em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.82</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">≤</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.84</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.1</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></div><p> causes <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{E}_n(\phi_n)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> has a stronger attractor to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="0.1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.1</span></span></span></span></span></span> than it does to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="0.83"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.83</span></span></span></span></span></span>? </p><p>Can <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{E}_n(\phi_n)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">ϕ</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-mi" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> be 0.6 where </p><p></p><div><span class="mjx-chtml MJXc-display" style="text-align: center;"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="f(x)=\left\{\begin{array}{l l} 0.6&amp; x=0.6\\ 0.1&amp;else \end{array}\right."><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.95em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 1.278em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.6</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 3.184em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">x</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mn MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.6</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.1</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.2em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></div><p>because the smallest variation would force it to be <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="0.1"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0.1</span></span></span></span></span></span>? </p> donald-hobson vQFiqbH6AfB7uYhQL 2019-01-03T23:56:54.671Z Comment by donald-hobson on Optimization Regularization through Time Penalty https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ehLX2RdbD5ZkeJyuJ/optimization-regularization-through-time-penalty#LtAgkGCNMNaocohn4 <p>If we ignore subagents and imagine a cartesian boundary, turned off can easily be defined as all future outputs are 0.</p><p>I also doubt that an AI working ASAP is safe in any meaningful sense. Of course you can move all the magic into &quot;human judges world ok&quot;. If you make lambda large enough, your AI is safe and useless. </p><p>If the utility function is 1 if widget exists, else 0. Where a widget is easily build-able, not currently existing object.</p><p>Suppose that ordering the parts through normal channels will take a few weeks. If it hacks the nukes and holds the world to ransom, then everyone at the widget factory will work nonstop, then drop dead of exhaustion. </p><p>Alternately it might be able to bootstrap self replicating nanotech in less time. The AI has no reason to care if the nanotech that makes the widget is highly toxic, and no reason to care if it has a shutoff switch or grey goos the earth after the widget is produced. </p><p>World looks ok at time T is not enough, you could still get something bad arising from the way seemingly innocuous parts were set up at time T. Being switched off and having no subagents in the conventional sense isn&#x27;t enough. What if the AI changed some physics data in such a way that humans would collapse the quantum vacuum state, believing the experiment they were doing was safe. Building a subagent is just a special case of having unwanted influence</p> donald-hobson LtAgkGCNMNaocohn4 2019-01-02T23:17:37.087Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why I expect successful (narrow) alignment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5dNQDEGmRcXXx4s3/why-i-expect-successful-narrow-alignment#4c7kj6npNiEMiNEN8 <p>You can have an AI that isn&#x27;t a consequentialist. Many deep learning algorithms are pure discriminators, they are not very dangerous or very useful. If I want to make a robot that tidies my room, the simplest conceptual framework for this is a consequentialist with real world goals. (I could also make a hackish patchwork of heuristics, like evolution would). If I want the robot to deal with circumstances that I haven&#x27;t considered, most hardcoded rules approaches fail, you need something that behaves like a consequentialist with real world preferences.</p><p>I&#x27;m not saying that all AI&#x27;s will be real world consequentialists, just that there are many tasks only real world consequentialists can do. So someone will build one.</p><p>Also, they set up the community after they realized the problem, and they could probably make more money elsewhere. So there doesn&#x27;t seem to be strong incentives to lie. </p> donald-hobson 4c7kj6npNiEMiNEN8 2018-12-31T21:41:50.609Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why I expect successful (narrow) alignment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5dNQDEGmRcXXx4s3/why-i-expect-successful-narrow-alignment#sxGxx4hcAbMHtBmPB <p>Adam&#x27;s law of slow moving disasters only applies when the median individual can understand the problem, and the evidence that it is a problem. We didn&#x27;t get nuclear protests or treaties until overwhelming evidence that nukes were possible in the form of detonations. No one was motivated to protest or sign treaties based on abstract physics arguments about what might be possible some day. Action regarding climate change didn&#x27;t start until the evidence became quite clear. The outer space treaty wasn&#x27;t signed until 1967, 5 years after human spaceflight and only 2 before the moon landings. </p> donald-hobson sxGxx4hcAbMHtBmPB 2018-12-29T20:44:36.379Z Comment by donald-hobson on Why I expect successful (narrow) alignment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5dNQDEGmRcXXx4s3/why-i-expect-successful-narrow-alignment#aTvdBmGfNCeMhiAdz <p>Human morals are specific and complex (in the formal, high information sense of the word complexity) They also seem hard to define. A strict definition of human morality, or a good referent to it would be morality. Could you have powerful and useful AI that didn&#x27;t have this. This would be some kind of whitelisting or low impact optimization, as a general optimization over all possible futures is a disaster without morality. These AI may be somewhat useful, but not nearly as useful as they would be with fewer constraints. </p><p>I would make a distinction between math first AI, like logical induction and AIXI, where we understand the AI before it is built. Compare to code first AI, like anything produced by an evolutionary algorithm, anything &quot;emergent&quot; and most deep neural networks, where we build the AI then see what it does. The former approach has a chance of working, a code first ASI is almost certain doom.</p><p>I would question the phrase &quot;becomes apparent that alignment is a serious problem&quot;, I do not think this is going to happen. Before ASI, we will have the same abstract and technical arguments we have now for why alignment might be a problem. We will have a few more alpha go moments, but while some go &quot;wow, AGI near&quot;, others will say &quot;go isn&#x27;t that hard, we are a long way from this scifi AGI&quot;, or &quot;Superintelligence will be friendly by default&quot;. A few more people might switch sides, but we have already had one alpha go moment, and that didn&#x27;t actually make a lot of difference. There is no giant neon sign flashing &quot;ALIGNMENT NOW!&quot;. See no fire alarm on AGI.</p><p>Even if we do have a couple of approaches that seem likely to work, it is still difficult to turn a rough approach into a formal technical specification into programming code. The code has to have reasonable runtime. Then the first team to develop AGI have to be using a math first approach and implement alignment without serious errors. I admit that there are probably a few disjunctive possibilities I&#x27;ve missed. And these events aren&#x27;t independent. Conditional on friendly ASI I would expect a large amount of talent and organizational competence working on AI safety.</p> donald-hobson aTvdBmGfNCeMhiAdz 2018-12-29T20:34:03.399Z Comment by donald-hobson on A few misconceptions surrounding Roko's basilisk https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBJZoeJypcNRmsdHx/a-few-misconceptions-surrounding-roko-s-basilisk#5oQgYDr74CqBTQoAJ <p>My take on Roko&#x27;s basilisk is that you got ripped off in your acausal trade. Try to get a deal along the lines of, unless the AI goes extra specially far out of its way to please me, I&#x27;m gonna build a paperclipper just to spite it. At least trading a small and halfhearted attempt to help build AGI for a vast reward.</p> donald-hobson 5oQgYDr74CqBTQoAJ 2018-12-24T22:07:05.841Z Comment by donald-hobson on Two clarifications about "Strategic Background" https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hL9ennoEfJXMj7r2D/two-clarifications-about-strategic-background#gR3zcwvdcr6GPLWAL <p>Imagine that you hadn&#x27;t figured out FDT, but you did have CDT and EDT. Would building an AI that defers to humans if they are different be an example of minimal but aligned?</p><p>If we take artificial addition too seriously, its hard to imagine what a &quot;minimal arithmatician&quot; looks like. If you understand arithmetic, you can make a perfect system, if you don&#x27;t, the system will be hopeless. I would not be surprised if there was some simple &quot;algorithm of maximally efficient intelligence&quot; and we built it. No foom, AI starts at the top. All the ideas about rates of intelligence growth are nonsense. We built a linear time AIXI.</p> donald-hobson gR3zcwvdcr6GPLWAL 2018-12-24T21:24:14.926Z Comment by donald-hobson on Best arguments against worrying about AI risk? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jGmSMHmELjZaHm44k/best-arguments-against-worrying-about-ai-risk#ud2QzweH2JkTe4rnB <p>If we have two distinct AI safety plans, the researchers are sensible to have a big discussion on which is better and only turn that one on. If not, and neither AI is fatally flawed, I would expect them to cooperate, they have very similar goals and neither wants war.</p> donald-hobson ud2QzweH2JkTe4rnB 2018-12-23T21:28:39.007Z Comment by donald-hobson on on wellunderstoodness https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3BM6J7fA4hMSjQLjF/on-wellunderstoodness#DPQJFgCr8TgFhoavS <p>The maximise p=P(cauldrun full) constrained by <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; display: table-cell!important; 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padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span></span></span></span></span> has really weird failure modes. This is how I think it would go. Take over the world, using a method that has <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="<\epsilon "><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&lt;</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span></span></span></span></span> chance of failing. Build giant computers to calculate the exact chance of your takeover. Build a random bucket filler to make the probability work out. Ie if <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\epsilon"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">ϵ</span></span></span></span></span></span>=3%, then the AI does its best to take over the world, once it succeeds it calculates that its plan had a 2% chance of failure. So it builds a bucket filler that has <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\frac{97}{98}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.849em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.2em; top: -1.404em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">97</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 1.2em; bottom: -0.687em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">98</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.849em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.479em; vertical-align: -0.486em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span></span></span></span></span> chance of working. This policy leaves the chance of the cauldron being filled at exactly 97%. </p><p></p> donald-hobson DPQJFgCr8TgFhoavS 2018-12-16T17:56:45.444Z Comment by donald-hobson on Quantum immortality: Is decline of measure compensated by merging timelines? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5TYnquzAQPENyZXDa/quantum-immortality-is-decline-of-measure-compensated-by#iNS8iqtA9Aez9kgmF <p>One way to avoid the absurd conclusion is to say that it doesn&#x27;t matter if another mind is you.</p><p>Suppose I have a utility function over the entire quantum wave function. This utility function is mostly focused on beings that are similar to myself. So I consider the alternate me, that differs only in phone number, getting £100, about equal to the original me getting £100. As far as my utility function goes, both the versions of me would just be made worse off by forgetting the number. </p> donald-hobson iNS8iqtA9Aez9kgmF 2018-12-11T23:10:26.499Z Boltzmann Brains, Simulations and self refuting hypothesis https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7dASDQzuLwepLq9Zv/boltzmann-brains-simulations-and-self-refuting-hypothesis <p>Let&#x27;s suppose, for the purposes of this post, that our best model of dark energy is such that an exponentially vast number of Boltzman brains will exist in the far future. The idea that we may be in an ancestor simulation is similar in its self refuting nature but slightly vaguer, as it depends on the likely goals of future societies. </p><p>What do I mean when I say that these arguments are self refuting? I mean that accepting the conclusion seems to give a good reason to reject the premise. Once you actually accept that you are a Boltzmann brain, all your reasoning about the nature of dark energy becomes random noise. There is no reason to think that you have the slightest clue about how the universe works. We seem to be getting evidence that all our evidence is nonsense, including the evidence that told us that. The same holds for the simulation hypothesis, unless you conjecture that all civilizations make ancestor simulations almost exclusively. </p><p>What&#x27;s actually going on here. We have three hypotheses. </p><p>1) No Boltzmann brains, the magic dark energy fairy stops them being created somehow. (Universe A)</p><p>2) Boltzmann brains exist, And I am not one. (Universe B)</p><p>3) I am a Boltzmann brain. (Universe B)</p><p>As all these hypothesis fit the data, we have to tell them apart on priors, and anthropic decision theory, with the confusion coming from not having decided on an anthropic theory to use, but ad-lib-ing it with intuition.</p><p>SIA Selects from all possible observers, and so tells you that 3) is by far the most likely.</p><p>SSA, with an Ocamian Prior says that Universe B is slightly more likely, because it takes fewer bits to specify. However most of the observers in Universe B are Boltzmann brains seeing random gibberish. The observation of any kind of pattern gives an overwhelming update towards option 1).</p><p>If we choose to minimize the sum of both the amount of info needed to describe the universe, and the amount needed to specify your place within it, then we find that Universe B is simpler to describe, and it is far easier to describe the position of an evolved life-form near the beginning of time, than to locate a Boltzmann brain around <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; 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padding-bottom: 0.372em;">10</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sup" style="font-size: 83.3%; vertical-align: 0.443em; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.06em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">100</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> years in. An AIXI that is simulating the rest of the universe, with patching rules to match its actions up to the world, will act as if it believes option 2). </p><p></p><p></p> donald-hobson 7dASDQzuLwepLq9Zv 2018-11-26T19:09:42.641Z Quantum Mechanics, Nothing to do with Consciousness https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/anj8gTfoYBpWJMpdm/quantum-mechanics-nothing-to-do-with-consciousness <p><em>Epistemic status: A quick rejection of the quantum consciousness woo. If you have already read the sequences, there&#x27;s nothing new in here. If your new to the site, or need a single page to point people to, here it is. </em></p><p><br/>Real Quantum mechanics looks like pages of abstract maths, after which you have deduced the results of a physics experiment. Given how hard the maths is, most of the systems that we use quantum mechanics to predict are quite simple. One common experiment is to take a glass tube full of a particular element and run lots of electricity through it. The element will produce coloured light, like sodium producing orange, or neon producing red. So take a prism and split that light to see what colours are being produced. Quantum physisists will do lots of tricky maths about how the electrons move between energy levels to work out what colour different elements will produce.</p><p>There have been no quantum mechanics experiments that show consciousness to have any relevance to particle physics. The laws of physics do not say what is or is not conscious, in much the same way that they don&#x27;t say what is or is not a work of art. Of course, consciousness is a property of human brains, and human brains, like everything else in the universe, are made of electrons and quarks playing by quantum laws. The point is that human brains are not singled out for special treatment, they get the same rules as everything else.</p><p>For the writers among you, think of a word processor feature that takes some text, and turns it into ALL CAPS. You can put a great novel into this feature if you want. The point is that the rule its self acts the same way whether or not it&#x27;s given great literature. You can&#x27;t use the rule to tell what is great literature, you have to read it and decide yourself. Consciousness, like literature, is a high level view that&#x27;s hard to pin down precisely, and is largely a matter of how we choose to define it. Quantum mechanics is a simple, mechanistic rule.</p><p>Yes I know that some of you are thinking of the double slit experiment. You make a screen with two slits, shine light through and get an interference pattern. Put a detector at one slit, attach a dial to the detector, and have a scientist watching the dial so they can see which slit the photon went through, and the interference pattern disappears. Perhaps, thought some of the early scientists, consciousness causes the quantum wave function to collapse, the universe doesn&#x27;t like us knowing which slit the photon goes through.</p><p>However, lets do a few more experiments. Repeat the previous one, except that the scientist is sleeping in front of the dial. No interference pattern. Turn the dial to face the wall, remove the scientist entirely. Still no interference pattern. Unplug the dial from the detector, so electrical impulses run up the wire and then can&#x27;t go anywhere. Again, no interference. Whatever is stopping interference patterns, it looks like detectors, not consciousness. </p><p>It turns out that any interaction with any other particles, such that the position the other particle ends up in depends on which slit a photon went through, creates entanglement between the photon and the other particle, which destroys interference. And the atoms in the dial, the electrons in the wire, and particles in the detector its self, all have there position depend on where the photon went.</p><p>In general, the way to get rid of mysteries is to break them up into smaller mysteries, until your left with loads of tiny mysteries. How life worked used to be one big mystery. But thanks to modern biology, we now have thousands of tiny mysteries about how yeast metabolism can tolerate high levels of alcohol, or how protozoa DNA doesn&#x27;t get tangled when they replicate. And these are surrounded by large amounts of well understood science. (I&#x27;m not a biologist, so these particular things might be solved by now, but you get the Idea) Big mysteries get broken down into a pile of fact, and several smaller ones. </p><p>Gluing the &quot;mystery&quot; of quantum mechanics, to the &quot;mystery&quot; of consciousness to make a bigger and more mysterious mystery, would be a mistake even if both of these things were actually mysteries to humanity. Mystery is a blank textbook, not a feature of the world, and in this case, there is a clear picture of quantum mechanics, and a rough sketch of consciousness in the textbooks.</p> donald-hobson anj8gTfoYBpWJMpdm 2018-11-26T18:59:19.220Z Clickbait might not be destroying our general Intelligence https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HSjQSSw94NHhmq8cQ/clickbait-might-not-be-destroying-our-general-intelligence <p>Epistemic status This post is a &quot;plausible conjecture&quot; alternative to Eliezer&#x27;s take on clickbait. My arrogant epistimology thinks it&#x27;s substantially closer to the truth than Eliezer&#x27;s version. </p><p>https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YicoiQurNBxSp7a65/is-clickbait-destroying-our-general-intelligence</p><p>In the 1950&#x27;s there were a similar number (order of magnitude) of humans, and they did a similar amount of socializing as today. This would suggest that a similar quantity of memetic optimization was going on then. Any universally popular meme would have risen to popularity. The difference between then and today was that then people usually only communicated with people geographically local to them. With a small number of newspapers being widely read. Whereas today, people communicate with like minded individuals around the world regularly. </p><p>Suppose that different humans have different selection criteria when deciding to share a meme. In 1950, a meme had to appeal to a broad section of society to be spread. Not 100%, more like 25%, the small number of different newspapers, and small numbers of local people to communicate with still let memes specialize along a few socioeconomic lines. Eg Catholic memes vs Protestant memes in Northern Ireland, or Liberal vs Conservative memes in many places. Each newspaper had a side, and many of your neighbors were on your side. </p><p>Nowadays, memes can specialize to focus onto tiny subsets of the population. Given that a tiny fraction of the population think in a particular and unusual way, they can gather together online, and share memes optimized exclusively to them. This produces many internet subcultures. Within each subculture, the selection pressure isn&#x27;t that strong, there aren&#x27;t that many model railway buffs or code golfers or ... But the memes are optimized to a particular way of thinking, not the combination of several. </p><p>In some circumstances, Schelling points create an averaging effect in the 1950 case. Suppose an issue, say cats vs dogs, is sufficiently minor that newspapers are not split into a pro cat paper, and a pro dog paper. Then if a newspaper says anything excessively pro cat, the dog fans will call them out on it, and possibly stop reading the paper. Likewise if the paper is pro dog. So the paper finds a Schelling point, where neither side are upset enough to cause a real fuss. Note that this process is only truth seeking to the extent that cat supporters will let valid pro dog arguments slide and call out invalid ones.</p><p>The main effect of filter bubbles is increasing the variance in the meme pool. The biologists can stop arguing with creationists, and get down to sorting out the details of kin selection or whatever. The creationists can stop having to pedal creationism to the unconvinced and can get together to work out the difference between micro-evolution and macro-evolution. </p><p>Optimizing for a combination of A and B can produce more of both than choosing which to optimize for at random. If we have memes that are (A=10, B=0) and (A=9, B=9) and (A=0, B=10), then the middle one is likely to spread in a world without filter bubbles, but the extremes could spread in bubbles optimizing only A and B respectively. If A=sanity, then the average sanity could fall due to the optimization for sanity being focused into one place, and diminishing marginal returns on sanity for optimization. </p><p>Other effects on the quality of discourse could include stupid people having an easier time voicing their opinions. Eliezer says that the quality of internet discussion has degraded from 2002 to 2017. (I wasn&#x27;t old enough to use the internet in 2002, so can&#x27;t confirm or deny this.) According to these sources, under 10% of the world was online in 2002, facebook and twitter hadn&#x27;t started yet. In short, getting on the internet required more technical competence, the hardware was more expensive, and there was less to do there. The typical internet user was moderately well educated and smart. The typical newspaper journalist was also moderately well educated. Any reduction in quality would seem to be from uninformed people being finally able to tell the world why the earth is flat. </p><p>If you think that the world needs a few highly sane people, not many slightly sane people, then an aggregation into a few groups of sanity is beneficial.</p><p>Under the hypothesis that clickbait is destroying intelligence, the existance of less wrong, and places like it, is highly surprising, under a segregation hypothesis, its expected that the most rational people clump together. </p><p>https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm</p><p>https://www.inquisitr.com/830664/the-history-of-social-media-when-did-it-really-begin-you-may-be-surprised-infographic/</p><p></p> donald-hobson HSjQSSw94NHhmq8cQ 2018-11-19T00:13:12.674Z Stop buttons and causal graphs https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FW2ax844cuMTYrXCR/stop-buttons-and-causal-graphs <p> </p><p>Suppose that all problems relating to epistemic rationality have been solved. We create an AI with an epistemic module and an instrumental module. The epistemic module produces a causal graph like this one. (well a probability distribution over such graphs, but suppose only one has significant probability for now.)</p><p></p><span><figure><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/v68NbIn5TEevei1qDikxKyHO6RI0QBlS0XeCLNCsg9Ut3Onr0vcOaYehBYubJKLW6TysjmElth7CuamuFPT1Tegbc5-98qjgK9jNVg=w646-h707-no" class="draft-image " style="width:68%" /></figure></span><p></p><p>Here blue rectangles are the actions the AI can take in the world, red ellipses represent real world events. The green diamond represents utility. Mathematically, these nodes are stochastic functions that take in several random variables inputs, and return an output random variable (RV). The rectangles are action nodes, so they just represent a function of the AI’s action. Each node is the situation at a single instant, if the AI has multiple opportunities like this one at successive times, the graph needs to be repeated. 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src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold} @font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')} </style><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label=" \text{argmax}_{Act}(\mathbb{E}(Utility |A)) "><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">argmax</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.377em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.084em;">U</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.006em;">y</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>Now lets add a stop button, carrying on from the broomstick in this example. <a href="https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/">https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/</a> </p><p>The AI has 3 actions available. It can</p><p>1)Press its own stop button. After this, it can’t do anything.</p><p>2)Break the stop button so the human can’t press it, then fill the cauldron</p><p>3)Fill cauldron</p><p></p><span><figure><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/3EgS35Lt2G1U4GoFLBsb-4Rv3GDO_rkXdX-PNt3xdCfaatee4YubY7efQF0JCG-vz-lht3_5xMsj2sDR7Ae2Wj38BEcgq19SIMH6RQ=w741-h711-no" class="draft-image " style="width:66%" /></figure></span><p></p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{U}_{normal}(act) = \begin{cases} 1\text{ if cauldron full} \\ 0\text{ if cauldron empty} \end{cases}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.865em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.1em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 8.366em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&nbsp;if cauldron full</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.129em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0px 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">&nbsp;if cauldron empty</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>If the AI has a utility <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label=" \mathcal{U}_{normal}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>, then it breaks the stop button, so the human can’t stop it, then fill the bucket.</p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{U}_{suspend}(act) = \begin{cases} 1\text{ if suspended} \hspace{0.8cm}\\ 0\text{ otherwise} \end{cases}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.86em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.119em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 8.267em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">&nbsp;if suspended</span></span><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 2.227em; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.1em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0px 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">0</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&nbsp;otherwise</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{V} = \begin{cases} \mathcal{U}_{suspend} &amp;\text{if Button Pressed} \\ \mathcal{U}_{normal} &amp;\text{if Button Not Pressed} \end{cases}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.905em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.21em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 3.208em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 9.376em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.1em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Not Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>When we change the utility to <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{V}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> this AI presses the stop button. The referenced work proposed adding another term to the utility function. </p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\theta = \max_{act} \mathbb{E}\left[\mathcal{U}_{normal}\mid act\right] – \max_{act} \mathbb{E}\left[\mathcal{U}_{suspend}\mid act\right]"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">θ</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-munderover MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">max</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: 0.004em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">–</span></span><span class="mjx-munderover MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">max</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">[</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">∣</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">]</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{V}_{indifferent} = \begin{cases} \mathcal{U}_{suspend}+\theta &amp;\text{if Button Pressed} \\ \mathcal{U}_{normal} &amp;\text{if Button Not Pressed} \end{cases}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.045em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.23em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">i</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.519em; padding-right: 0.06em;">f</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.905em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.21em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 4.9em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mi MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">θ</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 9.376em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.1em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Not Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>This is equivalent to the AI choosing <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\text{argmax}_{Act}(\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{U}_{normal} |A,\text{Button Not Pressed} ))"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">argmax</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.377em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Not Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p> This could be done in the causal graph by deleting all the inputs to the “Stop Button” node and setting that nodes value to definitely not pressed. This works, the AI chooses option 3) and fills the cauldron. </p><p>However suppose the situation was different. Here the “Circuit Breaker” is broken, and the AI has to fix it before the stop button will work. The AI now has a new option.</p><p></p><span><figure><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/bpvmB1q3ZtKUiAoZVqHmv6GPzUKHfhl0ck1AhR9ek04ddluyVGdD3NHGzHFRqiKKeApjfhJfK9on2VQm0Zj-YHd5Nzbbg4tcT5EGXA=w741-h711-no" class="draft-image " style="width:78%" /></figure></span><p></p><p>4)Fix Circuit Breaker, then use bucket.</p><p>The AI confidantly believes that the Stop Button will not be pressed, so it considers fixing the circuit breaker to be a waste of time.</p><p>Now lets cut the inputs to the “Stop Button” in the AI’s world model and set the node to be 50% pressed, 50% not pressed. Set the AI’s utility function to V. This AI believes that whether or not the button is pressed is an unalterable constant of nature. It can’t concieve of any action that would change the likelihood of the button being pressed. It will therefore not go out of its way to break the button, or to press it. If you put the button right in its path, it might press it accidentally. It will want to know if the button has been pressed, and will pay a small penalty to find out, or to fix the circuit breaker. </p><p>In utility function terms this is</p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathcal{V}_{new}(A) = \begin{cases} \mathcal{U}_{suspend}(A)/\mathbb{P}(\text{Button On}|A) &amp;\text{if Button Pressed} \\ \mathcal{U}_{normal}(A)/\mathbb{P}(\text{Button Off}|A) &amp;\text{if Button Not Pressed} \end{cases}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.045em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">w</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mrow MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-size3-R" style="padding-top: 1.256em; padding-bottom: 1.256em;">{</span></span><span class="mjx-mtable" style="vertical-align: -0.942em; padding: 0px 0.167em;"><span class="mjx-table"><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.21em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left; width: 12.335em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0px 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left; width: 9.376em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtr" style="height: 1.175em;"><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0.5em 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">a</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtd" style="padding: 0.1em 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: left;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="margin-top: -0.2em;"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">if Button Not Pressed</span></span><span class="mjx-strut"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo" style="width: 0.12em;"></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>So <span><span class="mjx-full-width mjx-chtml" style="min-width: 40.264em;"><span class="mjx-math" style="width: 100%;" aria-label="\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}_{new}|A) = \mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}_{new}|A, \text{Button Off})\mathbb{P}(\text{Button Off}|A)+\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}_{new}|A, \text{Button On})\mathbb{P}(\text{Button On}|A) \\=\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{U}_{norm}|A, \text{Button Off})+\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{U}_{suspend}|A, \text{Button On})"><span class="mjx-mrow" style="width: 100%;" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-stack" style="width: 100%; vertical-align: -1.492em;"><span class="mjx-block"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.045em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">w</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.045em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">w</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.045em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">w</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-block" style="padding-top: 0.442em;"><span class="mjx-box"><span class="mjx-mspace" style="width: 0px; height: 0px;"></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.212em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">o</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">r</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">m</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base" style="margin-right: -0.061em;"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.061em;">U</span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.219em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">u</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">s</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">p</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">e</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">n</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em; padding-right: 0.003em;">d</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>Before we were optimizing over all A for</p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}|A)=\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}|A, \text{Button Off})\mathbb{P}(\text{Button Off}|A)+\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}|A, \text{Button On})\mathbb{P}(\text{Button On}|A)"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>But by insisting that <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\mathbb{P}(\text{Button Off}|A)=\mathbb{P}(\text{Button On}|A)=\frac{1}{2}"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">P</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span></span></span></span></span> we can have the AI choose</p><p> <span><span class="mjx-chtml"><span class="mjx-math" aria-label="\text{argmax}_{Act}(\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}|A, \text{Button Off})+\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}(\mathcal{V}|A, \text{Button On}))"><span class="mjx-mrow" aria-hidden="true"><span class="mjx-msubsup"><span class="mjx-base"><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.151em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">argmax</span></span></span><span class="mjx-sub" style="font-size: 70.7%; vertical-align: -0.377em; padding-right: 0.071em;"><span class="mjx-texatom" style=""><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.225em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">c</span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">t</span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button Off</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">+</span></span><span class="mjx-mfrac MJXc-space2"><span class="mjx-box MJXc-stacked" style="width: 0.495em; padding: 0px 0.12em;"><span class="mjx-numerator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; top: -1.372em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 0.7em; bottom: -0.665em;"><span class="mjx-mn" style=""><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">2</span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 0.495em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.441em; vertical-align: -0.47em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-ams-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">E</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">(</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-cal-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em; padding-right: 0.045em;">V</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">|</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mi"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-math-I" style="padding-top: 0.519em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">A</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="margin-top: -0.144em; padding-bottom: 0.519em;">,</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext MJXc-space1"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">Button On</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">)</span></span></span></span></span></span> </p><p>This gives both indifference to the buttons state, and gives the AI a value of information. Note that this AI will ignore a human hand moving towards the button, and switch off in response to seeing the button actually get pressed. The AI has no strong reason not to press the button. So this stops the AI making a serious effort to press the button, but if you leave its button on the floor, it won&#x27;t avoid standing on it.</p><p>Does anyone think a mental intuition of optimization power flowing through causal networks from the actions to the utility function is useful?</p><p>Have I just solved the problem of utility switching, or is there a subtle failure mode I haven&#x27;t thought of yet?</p> donald-hobson FW2ax844cuMTYrXCR 2018-10-08T18:28:01.254Z The potential exploitability of infinite options https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JpKfu9Cg789gpHm6B/the-potential-exploitability-of-infinite-options <p></p><p>You would think that interacting with a fully known, deterministic system, when you have unbounded computing power should be easy, you just pick the series of actions that lead to the highest reward. In cases with finitely many end states, this is the case. </p><p></p><p>Suppose you meet a benevolent genie, who says &quot;pick a number, any real number, and I will give you that many utils&quot;.</p><p>The genie is offering you infinitely many options, with no one option being best. So whatever option you pick, you will want to go even higher. Bounded utility agents have the same problem. If you have a maximum utility of 10, and the genie offers you any amount of utility strictly less than 2, then you are still faced with an infinite sequence of ever better moves. If the agent could also use their time for something else, then they can say 2-1/3^^^^3 and then conclude that its not worth their time to specify numbers even closer to 2.</p><p></p><p>Of course you can get infinite expected utility in the infinite case. Toss a coin so that you pick 2 with prob 1/2, you pick 4 with prob 1/4 and so on. However, as soon as the coin lands, you find that you have finite utility, given an option to flip again you always will. There is also the question of adding 1 to all utilities on the coin is good, because you are guaranteed 1 util beyond what you would&#x27;ve gotten otherwise, or indifferent because you expect infinite utils either way. In the first case, the probabilistic option doesn&#x27;t fix the problem, agents still have an infinite list of ever better options. In the second case, the agent will be ambivalent about any finite amount of utility in many situations with unbounded potential utility. </p><p></p><p>Things can be made even worse for our agent. Suppose that we start in Purgatory, and consider being there as -1 util/day. Every day the genie offers the agent an option to go to Heaven, +10 util/day for the amount of time that they have already been in Purgatory. After this period is up, they would get Oblivion, at 0 util/day.</p><p></p><p>A naive rational agent would see that it could gain more utils by rejecting the genies offer for a bit longer, than by accepting. As such it would carry on rejecting the genie and staying in Purgatory forever. A timeless decision theorist might decide that there is no meaningful difference between the decisions faced on different days, and that &quot;always accept&quot; yields better results than &quot;always reject&quot;. However an agent that can precommit itself to a strategy like &quot;accept after N days&quot; will get 9N utils. Given an ability to precommit yourself, the agent is placed back in the first situation. It has to pick a finite N, and the bigger it makes N, the more utils it gets. </p><p></p><p>If we assume that our agent is a Turing machine, with fixed Komelgorov complexity, then there is a maximum number that is outputted by Turing machines of that size. However &quot;couldness&quot; of X is based on the fact that in the logical counter factual where X is the best possible action, the agent does X. (according to Elizer) So by this definition, the agent &quot;could&quot; output a number larger than its busy beaver number, but from our view outside the system, we know that it won&#x27;t. The agent can also follow through this argument to show it can&#x27;t output anything larger than its busy beaver number, but as the busy beaver numbers aren&#x27;t computable, it doesn&#x27;t know how big this is.</p><p>Is there any decision theory that works well when faced with infinite choice? </p><p></p> donald-hobson JpKfu9Cg789gpHm6B 2018-05-18T18:25:39.244Z