Comment by Edward (edward-germino) on Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results · 2022-07-01T16:44:57.591Z · LW · GW

Here's a vastly longer and more detailed analysis of how accurate Ray Kurzweil's 2019 predictions were: https://www.militantfuturist.com/how-ray-kurzweils-2019-predictions-are-faring/

Also see this: 
https://www.militantfuturist.com/will-kurzweils-2019-be-our-2029/

And this: 
https://www.militantfuturist.com/the-kurzweil-predictions-that-dont-matter/ 

Comment by Edward (edward-germino) on Phase transitions and AGI · 2022-03-21T17:31:03.803Z · LW · GW

So the rise of AGI will mark the third phase shift to the global economy. 

What will the FOURTH phase shift owe to, and according to your model, when will it happen?