Posts

Anyone recommend a video course on the theory of computation? 2020-05-30T19:52:43.579Z · score: 9 (2 votes)
A taxonomy of Cruxes 2020-05-27T17:25:01.011Z · score: 41 (11 votes)
Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 2020-05-25T20:29:42.714Z · score: 38 (12 votes)
My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? 2020-04-18T22:12:34.600Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
[U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government 2020-04-10T05:00:35.435Z · score: 31 (8 votes)
Resource for the mappings between areas of math and their applications? 2020-03-30T06:00:10.297Z · score: 13 (6 votes)
When are the most important times to wash your hands? 2020-03-15T00:52:56.843Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
How likely is it that US states or cities will prevent travel across their borders? 2020-03-14T19:20:58.863Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
Recommendations for a resource on very basic epidemiology? 2020-03-14T17:08:27.104Z · score: 20 (5 votes)
What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car? 2020-03-11T06:12:32.926Z · score: 15 (6 votes)
Model estimating the number of infected persons in the bay area 2020-03-09T05:31:44.002Z · score: 24 (6 votes)
At what point does disease spread stop being well-modeled by an exponential function? 2020-03-08T23:53:48.342Z · score: 8 (2 votes)
How are people tracking confirmed Coronavirus cases / Coronavirus deaths? 2020-03-07T03:53:55.071Z · score: 14 (3 votes)
How should I be thinking about the risk of air travel (re: Coronavirus)? 2020-03-02T20:10:40.617Z · score: 19 (7 votes)
Is there any value in self-quarantine (from Coronavirus), if you live with other people who aren't taking similar precautions? 2020-03-02T07:31:10.586Z · score: 33 (8 votes)
What should be my triggers for initiating self quarantine re: Corona virus 2020-02-29T20:09:49.634Z · score: 37 (11 votes)
Does anyone have a recommended resource about the research on behavioral conditioning, reinforcement, and shaping? 2020-02-19T03:58:05.484Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
Key Decision Analysis - a fundamental rationality technique 2020-01-12T05:59:57.704Z · score: 45 (12 votes)
What were the biggest discoveries / innovations in AI and ML? 2020-01-06T07:42:11.048Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
Has there been a "memetic collapse"? 2019-12-28T05:36:05.558Z · score: 31 (6 votes)
What are the best arguments and/or plans for doing work in "AI policy"? 2019-12-09T07:04:57.398Z · score: 14 (2 votes)
Historical forecasting: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a certain date? 2019-11-21T17:16:15.678Z · score: 39 (11 votes)
How do you assess the quality / reliability of a scientific study? 2019-10-29T14:52:57.904Z · score: 79 (26 votes)
Request for stories of when quantitative reasoning was practically useful for you. 2019-09-13T07:21:43.686Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
What are the merits of signing up for cryonics with Alcor vs. with the Cryonics Institute? 2019-09-11T19:06:53.802Z · score: 22 (8 votes)
Does anyone know of a good overview of what humans know about depression? 2019-08-30T23:22:05.405Z · score: 14 (6 votes)
What is the state of the ego depletion field? 2019-08-09T20:30:44.798Z · score: 28 (11 votes)
Does it become easier, or harder, for the world to coordinate around not building AGI as time goes on? 2019-07-29T22:59:33.170Z · score: 85 (27 votes)
Are there easy, low cost, ways to freeze personal cell samples for future therapies? And is this a good idea? 2019-07-09T21:57:28.537Z · score: 21 (9 votes)
Does scientific productivity correlate with IQ? 2019-06-16T19:42:29.980Z · score: 28 (9 votes)
Does the _timing_ of practice, relative to sleep, make a difference for skill consolidation? 2019-06-16T19:12:48.358Z · score: 32 (11 votes)
Eli's shortform feed 2019-06-02T09:21:32.245Z · score: 31 (6 votes)
Historical mathematicians exhibit a birth order effect too 2018-08-21T01:52:33.807Z · score: 117 (39 votes)

Comments

Comment by elityre on Should we stop using the term 'Rationalist'? · 2020-06-01T04:17:56.418Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Fair point.

Comment by elityre on Should we stop using the term 'Rationalist'? · 2020-05-31T17:33:00.087Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That sounds good, but also most outsiders are still going to refer to us as “the rationalists“.

Which is not to say that we can do anything about that, or that we ought to try and change how other people refer to the groups to which we belong.

Comment by elityre on Should we stop using the term 'Rationalist'? · 2020-05-30T20:22:51.331Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I just want to highlight that there are at least two separate things that one could mean by the world "rationalist".

This first is a practitioner of a method, or an aspirant to an ideal, of truth-seeking.

The second is a participant of a particular social cluster.

By the first definition, one might call many scientists or other intellectuals "rationalists" even if they never engage with, or in fact dislike, LessWrong and co.

My impression is that when Eliezer first wrote the sequences, he was using the world in the first sense, as in "how can we become better rationalists?" But, overtime (unsurprisingly), it came to describe the social group of people sprung up around the nucleus of those sequences.

In 2020, most people, if they have an association with the word "rationalist" at all, it is either the philosophical school, or the social group, because many people (say, my parents, or members of the SF tech industry), are not going to know much more about what it means to be a "rationalist" than "Oh. I know some people who are into that." So our label for a method / ideal naturally turns into a tribal marker.

I think one thing that would be really great is if there was some way to have terms for those two things, without having them inevitably smoosh together.

Comment by elityre on Should we stop using the term 'Rationalist'? · 2020-05-30T20:10:53.939Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You could make a poll?

Comment by elityre on Anyone recommend a video course on the theory of computation? · 2020-05-30T20:03:51.681Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

As a side question, does anyone know why a large fraction (maybe half?) of the explanation videos on youtube for this topic are in Hindi? I've never seen that pattern for anything else that I've been interested in before.

Comment by elityre on A taxonomy of Cruxes · 2020-05-28T20:35:14.696Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Oh. I misunderstood your question.

You are correct. That was typo. Thanks for noticing.

Comment by elityre on A taxonomy of Cruxes · 2020-05-28T19:45:01.624Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Nope. It isn't showing up that way for me, so I don't know what to tell you. Maybe it is a browser thing?

Comment by elityre on Gears in understanding · 2020-05-27T04:34:29.689Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

This is a great post.

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-26T15:26:34.894Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW


Good analysis.

If so, then consider that we'll also probably have faster and more widespread testing in the coming months. More efficacious treatments may emerge. These may permit socially responsible travel prior to the arrival of a vaccine.

This is a good point.

Then consider that some people may not want you around even if you tell them you're immune.

I think the people I'm concerned with will have basically the same epistemic standards as myself, and so the question is can I have sufficient confidence that I am in fact immune?

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-26T15:24:08.392Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Does social distancing suck so bad for you that this trade off feels like it makes sense? What is the concrete activity you'd like to be able to do, that you can't do without antibodies in your system?

No. Actually, social isolation is awesome for me. I'm getting so much done!

But I have a number of quite important long-form conversation to have, the outcome of each might make a substantial difference for my work or my personal life over the coming years. I can't really have those conversations over video call. I really I need to be in the same place as the other person and commit several hours to several days.

Because the world is slow now, this would be an ideal time to do that...until one accounts for the reason the world is slow.

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-25T22:38:06.022Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Hm. That seems pretty relevant.

It also matters if (or rather, how much) the false positives correlate. If they are close to being independent samples, then you could take two tests or more tests to increase your confidence.

But if false positive are more likely for asymptomatic people, then the tests must be at least somewhat correlated.

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-25T21:53:21.776Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Also, if anyone reading this has COVID tests to sell, or could make tests, please get in touch.

I would probably buy at least a few, so that I have them in reserve. That way (regardless of if I end up doing any travel) if I'm unavoidably in a situation where it seems like I might have been exposed, I can shorten my mandatory strict self isolation.

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-25T21:48:10.293Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Then you can take a flight, go to a hotel for one night, use a test, and probably find out pretty quickly (I'd guess either within an hour or within a day but I don't know) whether you're infected. 

I'm going to look into myself, if not, but does anyone happen to know how soon after exposure a test will show positive for COVID?

Comment by elityre on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-25T21:46:12.597Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This is a helpful answer. Thanks.

Comment by elityre on Is the coronavirus the most important thing to be focusing on right now? · 2020-05-18T13:54:16.402Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

It seems important to note that, from my reading of the Making of the Atomic Bomb, the biggest motivator for most of the physicists was the fear that the Nazis would get to the bomb first. This is technically under Vaniver's first point above, but it has a different tenor: it wasn't a dispassionate assessment of counterfactual impact, it was visceral fear.

Relevant quote:

Patriotism contributed to many decisions, but a deeper motive among the physicists, by the measure of their statements, was fear—fear of German triumph, fear of a thousand-year Reich made invulnerable with atomic bombs. And deeper even than fear was fatalism. The bomb was latent in nature as a genome is latent in flesh. Any nation might learn to command its expression. The race was therefore not merely against Germany. As Roosevelt apparently sensed, the race was against time. (Rhodes, Chapter 12)

I'm not sure what the relevance to the current corona situation is.

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-05-09T22:00:20.588Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

New relevant comments on the EA forum version of this post.

(Just to be clear, I'm considering the EA forum one to be the "canonical" version.)

Comment by elityre on Zoom In: An Introduction to Circuits · 2020-05-04T02:57:47.781Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

This was super interesting. Thanks for sharing!

Comment by elityre on Meditation: the screen-and-watcher model of the human mind, and how to use it · 2020-05-03T21:15:08.694Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for writing this. I'm likely to check out both app.

Comment by elityre on Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence? · 2020-04-25T00:25:51.014Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This seems like a really important point. Thanks.

Comment by elityre on Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence? · 2020-04-25T00:21:33.516Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Is this title intentionally (ironically) clickbaity? Or unintentionally (ironically) clickbaity?

Comment by elityre on Eli's shortform feed · 2020-04-21T00:22:12.200Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Can anyone get a copy of this paper for me? I'm looking to get clarity about how important cryopreserving non-brain tissue is for preserving personality.

Comment by elityre on Helping the kids post · 2020-04-18T23:25:34.031Z · score: 16 (6 votes) · LW · GW

These are great!

Lily, I enjoyed reading your posts.

Comment by elityre on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-18T23:09:11.549Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

After an hour of research:

It seems like the base rate of anaphylaxis from bee stings is about 3%. Anaphylaxis, if it occurs, usually starts within minutes of the exposure to the allergen. (It can occur as much as 24 hours later, but this is "rare". I don't know how rare, quantitatively.)

Anaphylaxis is the result of a "global" or "systematic" reaction, as opposed to a "local" reaction, namely swelling around the area stung.

There is some risk that a local reaction can cause swelling of the throat blocking the airways, but since 43% of bee stings are on the face and neck, and severe respiratory distress is rare, this is is very uncommon. It seems like this is only a concern when the person is stung inside the mouth or throat.

Comment by elityre on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-18T22:59:34.725Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This paper seems to be exactly what I'm looking for. It deals specifically with airway obstruction as a result of local swelling.

Approximately 43% of Hymenoptera stings occur in the head and neck region, but only nine cases of Hymenoptera stings in the oropharyngeal region have been described. None of these victims experienced systemic symptoms, but all of them developed some degree of localized swelling. The majority had uneventful recoveries after treatment with a combination of anti-histamines, corticosteroids, and epinephrine. One patient required nasotrachealintubation because of theseverity of his airway swelling. None of the stings resulted in death.
Comment by elityre on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-18T22:49:36.986Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

From this factsheet:

Patients often worry about threat to airway with large local reactions, but stings on the face or neck cause mainly external swelling, and airway involvement is unlikely or would occur slowly.
Comment by elityre on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-18T22:30:08.605Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

According to this paper,

Anaphylaxis to insect stings has occurred in 3% of adults and can be fatal even on the first reaction.

So that seems like a good prior to adjust from.

Comment by elityre on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-18T22:23:15.265Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

From medline plus:

Most severe allergic reactions occur within seconds or minutes after exposure to the allergen. Some reactions can occur after several hours, particularly if the allergen causes a reaction after it has been eaten. In very rare cases, reactions develop after 24 hours.
Anaphylaxis is a sudden and severe allergic reaction that occurs within minutes of exposure. Immediate medical attention is needed for this condition. Without treatment, anaphylaxis can get worse very quickly and lead to death within 15 minutes.

It seems like if you don't have a severe reaction, shortly after the sting, anaphylaxis is pretty unlikely?

But I think that this is with allergens in general, and according to medical news today, swelling from bee stings can occur gradually over the course of 24 or 48 hours.

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-17T04:59:40.975Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Yes. Receiving multiple loans is definitely illegal. But if one of them comes through, you should just stop doing anything on the others (or if need be, send the relevant lender an email saying that you are no longer eligible.)

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-17T04:57:30.268Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Nope. That was just a typo. It should read ">= 75%".

Comment by elityre on Reason as memetic immune disorder · 2020-04-13T02:03:39.236Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW
I'm also reminded of a talk I attended by one of the Dalai Lama's assistants.  This was not slick, Westernized Buddhism; this was saffron-robed fresh-off-the-plane-from-Tibet Buddhism.  He spoke about his beliefs, and then took questions.  People began asking him about some of the implications of his belief that life, love, feelings, and the universe as a whole are inherently bad and undesirable.  He had great difficulty comprehending the questions - not because of his English, I think; but because the notion of taking a belief expressed in one context, and applying it in another, seemed completely new to him.  To him, knowledge came in units; each unit of knowledge was a story with a conclusion and a specific application.  (No wonder they think understanding Buddhism takes decades.)  He seemed not to have the idea that these units could interact; that you could take an idea from one setting, and explore its implications in completely different settings.  This may have been an extreme form of cultural immunity.

Really?! That's fascinating.

Does anyone have any cite-able examples of the above?

Comment by elityre on Moore's Paradox · 2020-04-13T01:56:26.423Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
It's not as if people are trained to recognize when they believe something.  It's not like they're ever taught in high school:  "What it feels like to actually believe something—to have that statement in your belief pool—is that it just seems like the way the world is.  You should recognize this feeling, which is actual (unquoted) belief, and distinguish it from having good feelings about a belief that you recognize as a belief (which means that it's in quote marks)."

In contrast to, something like "this is interesting" or "this feels like an interesting thing to say."

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-11T02:04:19.317Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I recommend that you apply ASAP, talk to a lawyer, and then decline the funds if it seems like you shouldn't have requested them in the first place. There's a very limited window for getting money (which might already be passed). When actions are reversible (which they certainly are in this case, given that it is a loan, by default), but time sensitive, bias in favor of action.

But I recommend that you follow your moral compass over and above following my advice.

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-10T18:23:46.231Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I AM NOT A LAWYER.

When I read that sentence, these are the things that strike me, in order.

  • 1. The word "necessary" seems like a knock-down: I have savings, these funds are not strictly necessary for me (the person Eli Tyre).
  • 2. But it also says "current economic uncertainty." That is to say, I'm applying for money because I don't know what's going to happen over the next few months. That is true, in so far as I don't know how long this disruption will last, and how long my savings will hold out. If I ran out of money to pay rent, then I would have to figure something out, which would probably involve ceasing some of my current activities to do something that gives me income.
    • Does that mean that the economic uncertainty does make these funds necessary? My first order answer to that is the key question is "would 2.5 months of income make the difference between continuing doing the work I'm doing and finding income somehow?" I think that that is pretty unlikely. I have more than 2.5 months of runway.
  • 3. But maybe most importantly, there's the phrase "the ongoing operations of the Applicant": What are the ongoing operations of the business entity "Eli Tyre"?
    • Well, for instance, I contract-teach at CFAR workshops. I won't be doing that in the near future, regardless (because this is not a season for putting 50 people from all over the world in a house together for 4.5 days). The "Eli Tyre" entity is definitely going to miss the income that would come from those activities.
    • Naively, I might compare that situation to a restaurant or tailor, who is not getting any business right now, because their would-be-customers are sheltering at home. They probably still have expenses to pay, particularly payroll expenses, and that is exactly what this situation is supposed to cover. What is my equivalent of "payroll expenses"? Well, (effectively) the "Eli Tyre" business entity pays the individual Eli Tyre, gross revenues minus expenses. Does that mean that paying myself is one of the ongoing activities of the business entity "Eli Tyre"? I think, in that Sole Proprietors and Independent Contractors can apply at all, the answer is "Yes."

A lot of this is kind of confused because I'm forced to make a pretty artificial distinction between the unincorporated business entity "Eli Tyre" (that's why "the Applicant" is capitalized) and Eli Tyre the person.

It seems additionally confused by the fact that I have ceased much of my usual (paid) economic activity in order to do pro-bono work.

I guess I should talk with a lawyer.

Or do any of you have legal expertise?

Comment by elityre on [U.S. Specific] Free money (~$5k-$30k) for Independent Contractors and grant recipients from U.S. government · 2020-04-10T17:25:07.218Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I went to double check, and you are correct, one the statements that you are asked to initial in the government-issued paper application, is,

Current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the Applicant.

Depending on your circumstances, this may or may not be true, and therefore, agreeing may or may not be a lie.

I'm going to add a note about in the main post.

Comment by elityre on Resource for the mappings between areas of math and their applications? · 2020-03-30T23:49:42.884Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This was a helpful answer. Thank you!

Comment by elityre on [Meta] Do you want AIS Webinars? · 2020-03-21T20:59:38.521Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I think this is a cool idea! I would be interested in participating from time to time, at least.

Comment by elityre on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-18T22:31:52.926Z · score: 19 (7 votes) · LW · GW
I would strongly encourage people to try brainstorming some questions. Even if you don't come up with anything directly useful you might jog someone else's creativity. Remember to go for quantity over quality on your first pass.

Thanks Romeo.

Setting a 5 minute timer:

  • How will this effect markets / supply chains etc, assuming it lasts for different lengths of time.
  • How likely are various containment interventions by governments?
  • How does de-escalating quarantine / lock-down in countries that have instituted those work? Is there a chance the the virus will bounce back after de-escalation?
  • How long do I have to wait before interacting with an object / location in order to make sure it is safe? (eg could I rent an airbnb, or a rental car, several days in advance, and then use it without risk of catching the virus?)
  • How bad is this really for people in my age group? I would love to have information from people I know, who catch it.

Pushing to get to a total of 10 items:

  • How much health risk is there to social isolation?
  • Do I still need to have extreme hand-washing / disinfectant procedures if I'm not leaving the house?
  • What could be done to help emergency workers and other parts of the medical system not get sick?
  • Are there resources on maintaining a balanced diet of non-perishable foods?
  • What skills should I be rapidly acquiring to be most useful to this whole situation?

And one more.

  • Am I better off if I drive to some cabin out in the boonies?
Comment by elityre on How to have a happy quarantine · 2020-03-15T04:16:05.709Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Opt-in mandatory daily exercise

This is probably a joke of some sort. But I don’t get it.

Comment by elityre on The Critical COVID-19 Infections Are About To Occur: It's Time To Stay Home [crosspost] · 2020-03-15T00:22:46.876Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Well, it spontaneously fixed itself.

Comment by elityre on What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car? · 2020-03-14T20:01:15.938Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ah yes, I would be sure to let the car ventilate, first.

Comment by elityre on The Critical COVID-19 Infections Are About To Occur: It's Time To Stay Home [crosspost] · 2020-03-14T19:42:49.248Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Many have seen this time-adjusted graph of the numbers, with the time shifted so it's clear just how similar the curves look.

Your image is broken for me.

Comment by elityre on What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car? · 2020-03-14T19:38:50.580Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW
put a lot of disinfectant on the floor

What kind of disinfectant?

I guess I could fill a pan with 99% isotropic alcohol, and just leave it in the car for a day, as the fumes fill the volume.

Comment by elityre on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-14T18:16:53.311Z · score: 23 (6 votes) · LW · GW

This paper is well worth a read, according to me. Given that we have all kinds of problems doing testing for COVID-19 in the US, the authors do an analysis of the ratio of people seeking medical help for flu-like symptoms, but testing negative for the flu, to people testing positive (compared to previous flu seasons). The idea being that if COVID-19 is spreading, we should be seeing increases in flu symptoms relative to flu diagnoses.

However, I'm confused about Arizona. (See figure 4 in the paper). It looks like its score on this axis has been 2 to 3 standard deviations from the mean for the decade since November.

What's going on?

Hypotheses:

  • The Flu season in Arizona was so bad this year that the number of people who came in with flu symptoms skyrocketed, relative to other kinds of ailments, and even though most of those people did test positive for the flu, the wILI term swamped the (1 − proportion of tests positive for influenza), for an overall much higher than usual ILI-.
    • Is that mathematically plausible?
  • There was some other flu-like non-flu that was spreading in Arizona since November.
  • The flu diagnosis process spontaneously failed this season, producing orders of magnitude more false negatives, in Arizona, but not in any other state.
  • COVID-19 has been spreading in Arizona since November, but somehow there are only 9 serious cases.
  • COVID-19 has been spreading in Arizona since November, but testing is so ineffective, that there are hundreds of people with severe phenomena-like symptoms, who have not been recognized as COVID-19 cases, somehow.

What's going on here?

Comment by elityre on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-11T23:18:38.986Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Can we estimate what level of the disease will overtax US hospitals?

This page says that three are 924,107 "Total Staffed Beds in All U.S. Hospitals." Is that a good estimate of overall hospital capacity?

Does that mean that if/when ~ 1,000,000 people in the US have symptomatic cases, the hospital system will be at capacity?

Comment by elityre on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-11T06:34:40.859Z · score: 8 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Does anyone have updated figures on the fatality rate for different age groups, compared to the ones posted in this comment?

I imagine that that table is mostly based on data from the early outbreak in China, which may or may not generalize well to say, my parents.

Comment by elityre on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-10T07:12:28.350Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Coronavirus automatic tracking and population modeling v.2

Comment by elityre on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-10T07:09:09.857Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Having a list of of values of interest, with estimates and citations for each, would be great.

But in addition, I gotta say, this seems like just about a perfect use-case for prediction markets: we have a bunch of individual, well operationalized scalars, for which accurate estimates that incorporate all of the existing information are of high value.

Is anyone in a position to set up, or to subsidize, a market on these values?

Comment by elityre on Model estimating the number of infected persons in the bay area · 2020-03-10T05:50:28.437Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Actually, I was previously assuming that people are diagnosed the day they develop symptoms, which is probably an unrealistic expectation. If I add a term for that, and assume that there's a 5 day lag, my numbers jump up again:

Upper bound: 17,100

Lower bound: 585

Comment by elityre on You've Been Exposed to COVID-19: What Do You Wish You Knew? · 2020-03-10T03:21:43.486Z · score: 11 (3 votes) · LW · GW

How much does wiping down an object with disinfectant wipes reduce the risk of infection from that object?

Comment by elityre on You've Been Exposed to COVID-19: What Do You Wish You Knew? · 2020-03-10T03:21:02.933Z · score: 17 (6 votes) · LW · GW

How bad is it to share a bathroom with someone who is infected? Are there things you can do to make that better?