Comment by ElMonstro on Hiring: Lighthaven Events & Venue Lead · 2024-06-09T02:03:29.338Z · LW · GW

Is this still open?

Comment by ElMonstro on What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain? · 2020-12-26T21:09:54.942Z · LW · GW

Is there any way to short VIX?

Comment by ElMonstro on Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) · 2020-12-26T21:04:06.883Z · LW · GW

I think you are mostly correct, especially regarding the 10% profits tax and the 5% withdrawal tax. But I just made $6k (on invested value of $20k) by betting on swing states, both pro and against Trump.

The Upper Midwest swing states seemed like easy money and were mispriced, according to FiveThirtyEight. I also won with bets on SC and TX for Trump: I got the SC bets at 85%. Even considering fees, that means 8.5% for two months. This seems like absurdly easy money to me.  I got greedy and bet on FL and OH and lost there, or my winnings would have been over $10k.

After the election was called, there were a number of places where you could get 10% in a few weeks (or 4% including withdrawal fees).

The main way to make money on this site is to avoid withdrawal fees as long as possible by cycling through a number of  low risk bets. It is kind of tedious and "picking up dimes in front of a roller coaster" to be sure.

Comment by ElMonstro on Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) · 2020-12-26T20:46:54.928Z · LW · GW

I think you are mostly correct, especially regarding the 10% profits tax and the 5% withdrawal tax. But I just made $6k (on invested value of $20k) by betting on swing states, both pro and against Trump.

The Upper Midwest swing states seemed like easy money and were mispriced, according to FiveThirtyEight. I also won with bets on SC and TX for Trump: I got the SC bets at 85%. Even considering fees, that means 8.5% for two months. This seems like absurdly easy money to me.  I got greedy and bet on FL and OH and lost there, or my winnings would have been over $10k.

After the election was called, there were a number of places where you could get 10% in a few weeks (or 4% including withdrawal fees).

The main way to make money on this site is to avoid withdrawal fees as long as possible by cycling through a number of  low risk bets. It is kind of tedious and "picking up dimes in front of a roller coaster" to be sure.