Posts

Abstractions on Inconsistent Data 2020-06-29T00:30:01.815Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
Atemporal Ethical Obligations 2020-06-26T19:52:25.567Z · score: 11 (9 votes)
What's the name for that plausible deniability thing? 2020-06-24T18:42:54.705Z · score: 10 (5 votes)
When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow? 2020-06-20T18:23:07.420Z · score: 44 (19 votes)
Practical Conflict Resolution: A Taxonomy of Disagreement 2020-06-19T02:25:10.594Z · score: 10 (6 votes)
A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Comprehension 2020-06-13T15:08:18.546Z · score: 29 (11 votes)
Karma fluctuations? 2020-06-11T00:33:26.604Z · score: 7 (3 votes)
Self-Predicting Markets 2020-06-10T22:39:25.933Z · score: 27 (17 votes)
A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Communication 2020-06-09T01:04:50.332Z · score: 10 (6 votes)
A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Attitude 2020-06-06T12:29:16.728Z · score: 13 (7 votes)
The Stopped Clock Problem 2020-06-04T12:07:37.417Z · score: 29 (14 votes)
A Practical Guide to Conflict Resolution: Introduction 2020-06-04T01:03:26.576Z · score: 14 (7 votes)
The Law of Cultural Proximity 2020-06-03T02:18:40.523Z · score: 7 (3 votes)
Our Need for Need 2020-05-29T11:12:40.284Z · score: 31 (15 votes)
[Meta] Finding free energy in karma 2020-05-24T14:47:15.115Z · score: 13 (6 votes)
Extracting Value from Inadequate Equilibria 2020-05-18T17:25:09.781Z · score: 54 (24 votes)
What is a “Good” Prediction? 2020-05-03T16:51:46.802Z · score: 3 (3 votes)
It's Not About The Nail 2020-04-26T23:50:55.973Z · score: 28 (19 votes)
Fast Takeoff in Biological Intelligence 2020-04-25T12:21:23.603Z · score: 14 (7 votes)
Every system seems random from the inside 2020-04-19T23:02:55.151Z · score: 11 (7 votes)
What does the curve look like for coronavirus on a surface? 2020-04-15T02:07:34.044Z · score: 4 (2 votes)
Narrative Direction and Rebellion 2020-04-13T01:07:12.454Z · score: 8 (4 votes)
What We Owe to Ourselves 2020-04-11T01:34:22.730Z · score: 22 (12 votes)
Advice on reducing other risks during Coronavirus? 2020-03-24T23:30:37.172Z · score: 12 (6 votes)
International Conflict X-Risk in the Era of COVID-19 2020-03-18T11:42:42.538Z · score: 5 (6 votes)
Winning vs Truth – Infohazard Trade-Offs 2020-03-07T22:49:47.616Z · score: 12 (9 votes)
A Cautionary Note on Unlocking the Emotional Brain 2020-02-08T17:21:03.112Z · score: 54 (26 votes)

Comments

Comment by evan-huus on Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse · 2020-07-02T22:22:47.603Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW
The infection fatality rate seems to clearly have fallen, but why would it have fallen so much so quickly now that a surge in infections doesn’t kill more people?

and

Explanation 3: Young Getting Infected

My current leading hypothesis is that the difference in IFR between different demographics is substantially greater than previously reported. If under-30 groups see far more asymptomatic cases and very-low-symptom cases than older folks, that would likely cause a substantial underreporting of total cases in those demographics specifically (even more so than in the general population), which would lead to relative overreporting of their IFR - and the reported IFR for those groups is already much lower than for older groups.

This would also partly explain the ongoing confusion about whether there are tons of asymptomatic cases or not. There may be, but only in some demographic groups.

Comment by evan-huus on The Illusion of Ethical Progress · 2020-06-28T20:15:46.074Z · score: 27 (8 votes) · LW · GW
Western philosophy has no place for empiricism.

This seems a funny claim to make when there's an entire movement in Western philosophy (the British Empiricists) dedicated to empiricism.

Comment by evan-huus on Atemporal Ethical Obligations · 2020-06-27T02:40:25.788Z · score: -1 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I believe fairly strongly that the future will agree Rowling’s current position is immoral. Whether cancelling her is an appropriate response is a whole different question.

Comment by evan-huus on Atemporal Ethical Obligations · 2020-06-27T02:36:14.139Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If we define Z as what most people recognize as moral today, then I think most people end up doing Z, not X. And Y is arguably a lot better than Z.

I’m also sympathetic to your second paragraph. Presumably a lot of the people I gave as examples would at least claim to be following X. Since their actions are no longer ones we consider moral, then plausibly they were wrong about their X, and there’s no reason to believe we will be any more accurate. Y seems more accessible in that regard.

I’m trying to walk a pretty thin line here between taking this argument seriously and admitting to full on moral relativism. Thus the disclaimer at the top of the post.

Comment by evan-huus on What's the name for that plausible deniability thing? · 2020-06-24T19:59:18.562Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you!

Comment by evan-huus on Half-Baked Products and Idea Kernels · 2020-06-24T01:32:44.131Z · score: 11 (5 votes) · LW · GW

This is not true? It seems to me that iterative agile approaches are much more popular right now, and advise explicitly against this kind of waterfall process.

Comment by evan-huus on Prediction = Compression [Transcript] · 2020-06-23T10:49:27.605Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Obviously these skills should be correlated with IQ or what not

I’d argue that recognition, prediction, and compression of patterns isn’t just correlated with IQ. It’s the thing that IQ tests actually (try to) measure.

Comment by evan-huus on When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow? · 2020-06-23T00:54:48.723Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

This feels like a joke or a reference to something with which I am not familiar?

Comment by evan-huus on Are Humans Fundamentally Good? · 2020-06-21T19:20:50.371Z · score: 4 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Any reasonable answer depends entirely on what you mean by “good”. Though the flavour of the question makes me think you might find The Goddess of Everything Else enlightening,

Comment by evan-huus on When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow? · 2020-06-20T21:40:27.082Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Typo fixed, thanks!

Comment by evan-huus on When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow? · 2020-06-20T21:39:57.197Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think if stimming was cheap and easy, most people would do it. I don’t think it would only be done by people with other socially undesirable characteristics.

Comment by evan-huus on Types of Knowledge · 2020-06-20T18:38:14.729Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Could these three categories be roughly summarized as "Know that", "Know how", and "Know why"?

Comment by evan-huus on Practical Conflict Resolution: A Taxonomy of Disagreement · 2020-06-19T18:11:07.158Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Assuming indirect realism, then we don’t have direct access to the performance of our strategies either, so I’m not sure how that ends up being more useful.

Comment by evan-huus on Practical Conflict Resolution: A Taxonomy of Disagreement · 2020-06-19T11:34:32.900Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

As far as being predictive, I think I’ve done a clear job of that already. I’m not just saying you can fit any disagreement into my model with enough mental gymnastics; I’m saying that doing so is concretely useful in guiding the resolution of that disagreement. My model could very well be overly flexible or generally incorrect in some cases, but it’s the most useful model for this topic that I’ve come up with. If you think modelling disagreements at the strategy level is more useful, I would greatly enjoy reading your post on how to make use of that for conflict resolution.

Comment by evan-huus on Practical Conflict Resolution: A Taxonomy of Disagreement · 2020-06-19T11:20:49.141Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

we have direct access to neither Is nor Ought but can compare strategies' performance to one another

I don’t understand this part. The only way in which we don’t have direct access to Is or Ought is a fairly philosophical one, and on that level we don’t have direct access to the performance of our strategies either?

Comment by evan-huus on How to analyze progress, stagnation, and low-hanging fruit · 2020-06-16T00:50:17.336Z · score: 10 (7 votes) · LW · GW

I've sometimes wondered if it's possible that computing has so much unclaimed low-hanging fruit that it's currently sucking up the majority of innovative brains, and that progress in other fields will resume to a certain extent once it becomes more difficult to make world-changing inventions in computing.

edit to add: this would line up with my experience that there is a massive undersupply in competent computer programmers relative to available opportunities

Comment by evan-huus on Karma fluctuations? · 2020-06-14T00:08:28.203Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Related: do mods consider karma when deciding what to curate? Obviously something in the negatives is unlikely to warrant curation, but is a higher karma score considered a positive signal past whatever minimum bar?

(Speaking for my own internal reward function, I like writing posts that get high karma, but I'd like writing a post that gets curated much more)

Comment by evan-huus on Karma fluctuations? · 2020-06-11T21:17:02.284Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is interesting. I am mostly uninterested in AI research topics, but have avoided downvoting them on less wrong because there seems to be a lot of value and interest from other parts of the community. I could start downvoting every AI post that I see, but I’m afraid it would turn into a factional war between AI enthusiasts and everyone else.

Comment by evan-huus on Karma fluctuations? · 2020-06-11T01:02:55.950Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

It’s surprising to me because it feels very different from other similar voting systems, and I was expecting people to carry over habits from those places.

Maybe controversial was the wrong word. It still feels like “actively want to see less of” is a much stronger reaction than my default to posts I didn’t think were particularly great. But quite possibly that’s on me. It’s also surprising to me that there is so much lack of consensus on whether people want more or less of certain posts.

Comment by evan-huus on Your best future self · 2020-06-06T20:09:01.504Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

The new meta-introduction (is there a better term of art for those italic bits at the top?) definitely helps read it in the proper frame. Thank you for clarifying.

Comment by evan-huus on Your best future self · 2020-06-06T19:54:45.901Z · score: 2 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I am conflicted about this post. On the one hand, it smells like new-agey nonsense. I worry that posts like this could hurt the credibility of rationalists trying to spread other non-obvious ideas into the mainstream.

On the other hand, even if the only mechanism of this idea is the placebo effect, it’s an emotionally satisfying story to trigger that effect. As someone who grew up with strong religious beliefs, I can appreciate it as... something more than mere art.

Ultimately it’s not obvious to me if this post was supposed to convey a genuine psychological insight, and was just unclear, or if it’s more metaphorical and I’m being too pedantic?

This comment is probably confusing, but I think that merely reflects my own confusion here.

Comment by evan-huus on Why isn’t assassination/sabotage more common? · 2020-06-04T20:34:50.490Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Even psychopaths are risk-averse. Why take on the physical risk of performing assassination or sabotage when you can take on a much lower risk (for similar reward) via white-collar crime.

Comment by evan-huus on The Stopped Clock Problem · 2020-06-04T20:22:24.031Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think your understanding is generally correct. The failure case I see is where people say "this problem was really really really hard, instead of one point, I'm going to award one thousand correctness points to everyone who predicted it", and then end up surprised that most of those people still turn out to be cranks.

Comment by evan-huus on Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020 · 2020-06-04T12:10:09.066Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I saw this "stopped clock" assumption catching a bunch of people with COVID-19, so I wrote a quick post on why it seems unlikely to be a good strategy.

Comment by evan-huus on The Law of Cultural Proximity · 2020-06-04T11:10:32.438Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This is good feedback, thank you. I found it hard to write this post for this exact reason - it seems obviously true, but there aren’t any good studies or natural experiments to point to. Perhaps it would have been better framed as a hypothesis in need of validation? Though I fear it feels too obvious for that, and nobody would be interested in validating it.

Comment by evan-huus on Reflective Complaints · 2020-06-04T01:07:10.752Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I've started the conversion into a sequence here.

Comment by evan-huus on The principle of no non-Apologies · 2020-05-28T21:48:14.248Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Not sure if this is the exact source you were thinking of, but your definition reminds me of https://whatever.scalzi.com/2013/04/15/apologies-what-when-and-how/

Comment by evan-huus on [Meta] Finding free energy in karma · 2020-05-24T19:38:39.707Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Funny cross-thread coincidence, but I now think that maybe what I really noticed for point #2 is what you described here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Gbv7tmJs3ADbhJX6/reflective-complaints?commentId=KtekbKMi6SSzsaw4H. Crossposts just do better than linkposts, not necessarily better than "original" posts.

Comment by evan-huus on Reflective Complaints · 2020-05-24T19:35:53.291Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

If I edit the existing post, will it end up in oblivion anyway because it's old now? Or does the clock restart when it gets promoted to frontpage? I can delete/recreate if that would be more effective.

Another thought: because it's 6k words, it might be worth splitting across a few posts and creating a sequence out of it. I don't see a way to do that in the editor, so it might require privileges? I'm also not sure if it would be appropriate for this or not.

edit: also (and this is getting quite far afield here) - I've been blogging for quite a while on rational-adjacent topics before I started posting here. I imagine a flood of cross-posts of previous work would be frowned upon, but also the line seems kind of blurry given that's exactly what this comment thread is already discussing.

Comment by evan-huus on Reflective Complaints · 2020-05-24T13:51:20.904Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, I didn’t have niceness fields intentionally in mind when I commented, but it is definitely the same idea.

Have you considered creating a link-post on lesswrong?

That was the first thing I did when I created an account here. It got no upvotes and did not get promoted to front page, so... maybe it was just too much to digest from somebody with no karma at the time?

Comment by evan-huus on Reflective Complaints · 2020-05-21T21:28:30.636Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

The good news is that the virtuous cycle here also works: I've found that if one person is consistently unusually virtuous in their conversations and arguments, a little bubble of sanity spreads around that person to everyone in the vicinity over time.

I have a much longer guide on how to do this practically, from before I posted on LW, but caveat is it's quite long and isn't really written for a LW audience: https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2019/09/14/success-over-victory-conflict-resolution/

Comment by evan-huus on Dominant Assurance Contracts are not the same as Crowdaction platforms · 2020-05-19T23:17:42.514Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for clarifying this. I got confused because in the original Inadequate Equilibria sequence, Eliezer uses a bunch of examples that require DAC to solve, but then gestures in the direction of Kickstarter/Crowdaction.

Comment by evan-huus on Extracting Value from Inadequate Equilibria · 2020-05-18T22:57:19.326Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW
Many participants see the current situation as necessary to their well-being,

I'd be curious for an example of this. Obviously e.g. Elsevier doesn't want universities to solve their coordination problem, but they're not actually involved in any of the contracts which would be required to solve that one.

Other problems may be less tractable, but within the class of "Nash equilibria that aren’t even the best Nash equilibrium" I don't imagine you'd get much resistance to change?

Comment by evan-huus on Making a Crowdaction platform · 2020-05-16T21:38:43.749Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I’ve kind of wondered whether this could be something that a private company could take on? If there’s truly enough value in solving these coordination problems, then a company could extract some of that value in exchange, and use it to fund in-depth fulfillment verification programs etc.

There also seem to be a lot of problems like this at the institutional level (e.g. publishing in science journals) where a legitimate enterprise could proactively reach out to academic institutions, in a way that some random website would never attract their attention.

Comment by evan-huus on Small Data · 2020-05-15T02:28:06.640Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Would it be a reasonable interpretation here to read "beauty" as in some sense the inverse of Shannon entropy?

Comment by evan-huus on It's Not About The Nail · 2020-04-29T11:09:57.167Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I’d say there’s a strong tendency to over-update just because of recency bias.

Comment by evan-huus on Training Regime Day 0: Introduction · 2020-04-27T18:51:17.583Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW
It's an obvious truth that practicing something makes you better at it.

As any musician will tell you, this isn't actually true. Practice something makes you more consistent and automatic, not necessarily better. Practice makes permanent, not perfect. To get better, you need both practice *and* useful corrective feedback. In some cases it's possible to provide yourself with that feedback, and in others it's not (thus why even professional musicians still take lessons).

Comment by evan-huus on Fast Takeoff in Biological Intelligence · 2020-04-26T12:25:24.131Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

A takeoff in biological intelligence could plausibly take us well beyond modern high profile supergeniuses, and we have no idea what other parts of our behaviour that would affect. To quote Maxim’s comment above: “Seems unlikely to me that there exists a genetic intelligence-dial that just happens to leave all other parameters alone.“

Comment by evan-huus on Fast Takeoff in Biological Intelligence · 2020-04-26T12:19:46.954Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Low, but for regulatory/legal reasons, not technological ones. And this is so far outside my wheelhouse that this prediction is itself very low confidence.

Comment by evan-huus on Web Audio Echo? · 2020-04-21T16:16:50.838Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes that does seem like it would be a good compromise.

Comment by evan-huus on Web Audio Echo? · 2020-04-21T12:19:11.009Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, though the total latency of the system becomes the sum across all N members. For large groups (my chorus is 60+ people) that may end up being prohibitive just for cases where e.g. the feedback giver wants to pause the singing and give some feedback. I’m honestly not sure, this is all quite speculative. Thank you for sparking some thoughts though!

Comment by evan-huus on Web Audio Echo? · 2020-04-21T00:04:10.866Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Reading this (and discussing more ideas with my own chorus) made me think of another possible variation that might actually allow some form of online rehearsal: having one person's stream fan out to everyone else to sing against, and then gathering all of those feeds back into one collected stream (synchronized based on the "master" stream timestamps) for somebody else to listen to. This splits the usual role of director into two: conductor and feedback-giver, and you still can't hear the rest of the group you're singing with, but at least it allows some form of live feedback necessary for a practical rehearsal.

Comment by evan-huus on Is this viable physics? · 2020-04-14T21:59:13.481Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

This feels like a really-complicated version of Conway's Game of Life?

Comment by evan-huus on Narrative Direction and Rebellion · 2020-04-13T16:27:47.518Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Can "the direction things are going" not go anywhere?

It can also not go anywhere, but (at the individual narrative level) it's usually been walked before by big chunks of the population, so there's pretty high confidence that it's not a dead end.

So people usually come up with a vision and then don't check if it will work, instead of just finding out what will work?

I think I'd prefer to be a bit more charitable: it seems plausibly very difficult to tell if something new will work in advance without actually trying it. But certainly rebels don't tend to pitch their visions with enough epistemic humility: "here's a new form of government we'd like to experimentally try" vs "here's a new form of government that will solve all our problems"?

Comment by evan-huus on What We Owe to Ourselves · 2020-04-12T00:58:19.633Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Everyone is a victim if you go meta enough

There is a sense in which this is true, but also a sense in which society doesn't actually function like this. In practice, very few people think meta enough to discard the idea of responsibility entirely. I think my description of how people tend to function is still true (as much as any so general claim can be).

Comment by evan-huus on What We Owe to Ourselves · 2020-04-11T18:43:31.225Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
"if an outcome is my responsibility, then I refuse to give myself compassion."

I wouldn't phrase it in terms quite this absolutist, but I would say that when something is my responsibility I feel like I deserve much less compassion. That's pretty much what I say in the second paragraph: "we tend to feel less compassion for someone if we think that they’re responsible for their own misfortune".

Making ourselves suffer for our mistakes sometimes feels like a necessary step toward learning, but it does not have to be.

This is where my mind has been wandering post writing this essay as well. Is there a way to continue learning and reminding ourselves to improve our vigilance without the self-destructive self-flagellation aspect? There might be, which would be great.

Comment by evan-huus on Transportation as a Constraint · 2020-04-06T15:38:52.677Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

True. I guess it depends on exactly how cheap/ubiquitous/miniaturized this portal technology is; I was imagining fridge-sized one-per-home, not pipe-sized dozens-per-home. It also matters what it's capable of transporting (water and sewage are just physical matter, but electricity is a different thing entirely).

Comment by evan-huus on Transportation as a Constraint · 2020-04-06T11:33:46.105Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Buildings would still be built close together in order to share infrastructure (power, clean water, sewer, etc). Living outside of the city would certainly be more convenient with a portal system, but economies of scale mean it would still be far more expensive than living in the city.

Comment by evan-huus on Are HEPA filters likely to pull COVID-19 out of the air? · 2020-03-25T01:23:16.361Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Seems highly unlikely to me, for at least two reasons:

  • The SARS-CoV-2 viruses are roughly 50-200 nanometers in size, right around the size where HEPA filters are least effective (both facts from Wikipedia).
  • Given the 2-meter-distance advice, I'd assume most airborn contagion comes from fairly direct breathing/coughing/aerosolization. It's possible that a strong ventilation system could help here, but it would have to circulate a lot of air very quickly.

Edit to add: HEPA filters are already widely used in hospital ventilation systems, so I imagine any low-hanging fruit here has already been plucked.

Comment by evan-huus on Advice on reducing other risks during Coronavirus? · 2020-03-25T01:07:34.032Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/#3.4 was probably in the back of my mind when I asked this question, but I just dug it up again. Lots of great tips in there.