Comment by François-Joseph Lacroix (francois-joseph-lacroix) on Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war · 2022-10-09T23:09:54.654Z · LW · GW

I don't know how someone can claim to know with what likelihood an event will occur when we have no historical precedent for Russia using nuclear weapons. We have never seen their doctrine in action. In fact, the only examples we have regarding Russia and nukes are two events where Soviet soldiers REFUSED to launch nukes. So you should actually have a 0% chance for your kaboom scenario.

So now, we have 0%  80% * 70% = 0%

Also, it's incredibly disingenuous coming from a person that supposedly knows science to not include error bars and not mention the fact that even a slightly different number for each of the scenarios would drastically decrease the total likelihood. You could have chosen whichever number you liked and made the total likelihood any number you like.

In reality, the likelihood of total nuclear war is somewhere between 0% and 100% and you claiming to know what the number is shows how ignorant you truly are.