Posts

Get Social Sector Leaders to Use Evidence With This 1 Weird Trick 2020-09-19T18:07:50.000Z
Decolonizing Evidence-Based Decision-Making 2020-07-10T14:30:53.000Z
Prioritizing COVID-19 interventions & individual donations 2020-05-07T01:44:27.250Z
Deciding Well in Tumultuous Times 2020-04-14T20:53:20.000Z
How to optimize my time fighting COVID-19? 2020-03-19T19:15:26.147Z
Book Review: Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath 2020-02-06T20:15:53.000Z
To Be Decided #4 2019-12-16T18:41:27.983Z
On Stories vs. Data 2019-12-05T20:07:13.000Z
To Be Decided #3 2019-12-05T19:06:18.198Z
To Be Decided #2 2019-11-08T02:35:42.084Z
A Short Introduction to Theory of Change 2019-10-11T19:00:06.321Z
To Be Decided #1 2019-10-03T19:30:15.976Z
Decision-Making for Impact: A Guide 2019-09-16T05:12:01.000Z
The Crisis of Evidence Use 2019-08-30T04:50:21.000Z
An Introduction to Decision Modeling 2019-06-05T20:13:10.000Z
This is Why Your Hard Work Sits on the Shelf — and Here’s What to Do About It 2019-03-11T01:09:50.000Z
We’ve Been Thinking About Measurement All Wrong 2019-03-01T15:59:43.000Z

Comments

Comment by ian-david-moss on To Be Decided #3 · 2019-12-16T20:20:01.226Z · LW · GW

FYI, this is now set up: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/tXiWcokm9tpy8uApN

Comment by ian-david-moss on To Be Decided #3 · 2019-12-05T23:01:46.797Z · LW · GW

That's a good idea, I'll have to figure out how to do that! :)

Comment by ian-david-moss on Updating a Complex Mental Model - An Applied Election Odds Example · 2019-11-28T12:22:08.119Z · LW · GW

This mostly made sense to me, but what is the surprising information that caused you to update in favor of Trump being reelected? Presumably some piece of economic news? Or did I misunderstand your last sentence?

Comment by ian-david-moss on An Introduction to Decision Modeling · 2019-11-08T13:53:01.911Z · LW · GW

Yes, I agree that choice of distribution is often very important to modeling outcomes. If you're not sure which is most appropriate, you can experiment with different ones as you just did to see whether and how they affect the results. By the way, Guesstimate supports more distributions than the three you mentioned, but the others involve a little more work to incorporate into the model. You can even define your own distributions from sample data that you upload.

Comment by ian-david-moss on To Be Decided #1 · 2019-10-04T13:11:14.207Z · LW · GW

Whoops! It is not. Here's the correct one, and I'll make the change in the post as well. Thanks for the correction and the kind words!