## Posts

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario 2019-08-23T01:24:17.006Z · score: 18 (9 votes)
Thoughts from a Two Boxer 2019-08-23T00:24:49.692Z · score: 19 (12 votes)

Comment by jaek on Imperfect Competition · 2019-12-30T18:23:48.254Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Small typo: in "As I noted last time, I noticed after writing this that a Local Farmer’s Market was Google’s top response to asking for an example of imperfect competition." You should write perfect not imperfect.

Comment by jaek on Conversation with Paul Christiano · 2019-09-12T14:17:51.517Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Correlations don't necessarily raise or lower the joint probability of several events. Suppose there are two events:

1. We build AGI
2. We align AGI

and both are monotone functions of another variable, our competence. Then if we're not competent enough to align AGI then maybe we're also not competent enough to build AGI at all so there is no problem. Here the events correlate in a helpful way. This example illustrates what I think Paul means by "weakness in one area compensates for strength in the other".

Your model could also be that there are two events:

1. We align AGI
2. We coordinate to not build AGI if we can't solve 1.

Here if we're not competent enough to solve 1 that's some evidence that we won't be competent enough to solve 2. So the events correlate in an unhelpful way.

I think the need for a nuanced view of the correlations between the events in your model of the future is what Paul means when he says "a little bit here and a little bit here and a little bit here".

Comment by jaek on Thoughts from a Two Boxer · 2019-08-23T19:13:35.670Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Fixed

Comment by jaek on Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario · 2019-08-23T07:07:01.735Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You can improve your tex formatting by putting your text in \text{}

Comment by jaek on Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario · 2019-08-23T07:05:20.133Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You're definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.

I'm not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality, Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I'm missing an easy application of Bayes though?

Comment by jaek on Thoughts from a Two Boxer · 2019-08-23T02:57:16.472Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for your comment. I'll look into those other problems.

Comment by jaek on Thoughts from a Two Boxer · 2019-08-23T02:56:37.393Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW