Posts

Exponential growth is the baseline 2021-02-22T02:08:16.704Z
Clarifications on tech stagnation 2021-01-31T00:59:42.219Z
Technological stagnation: Why I came around 2021-01-23T22:05:59.364Z
When life was literally full of crap 2020-12-21T21:16:04.831Z
What is “protein folding”? A brief explanation 2020-12-01T02:46:09.003Z
The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine 2020-11-09T23:06:45.790Z
A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall 2020-11-06T20:01:55.074Z
“Prediction” and “explanation” are not causation 2020-10-24T18:55:55.767Z
Technology and its side effects 2020-10-13T20:07:59.685Z
Some elements of industrial literacy 2020-10-08T19:51:05.112Z
The Rise and Fall of American Growth: A summary 2020-10-05T21:41:08.447Z
Industrial literacy 2020-09-30T16:39:06.520Z
Progress: Fluke or trend? 2020-09-13T00:21:36.025Z
Indignation in response to the 1890 census 2020-09-08T20:14:30.619Z
Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers 2020-09-03T00:17:10.030Z
19th-century progress studies 2020-08-27T02:28:29.765Z
Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? 2020-08-17T20:34:20.084Z
Announcing the Study Group for Progress 2020-08-14T20:18:52.521Z
How to analyze progress, stagnation, and low-hanging fruit 2020-06-15T21:02:46.969Z
Pasteur's quadrant 2020-06-05T17:47:58.569Z
Shuttling between science and invention 2020-05-27T21:25:23.037Z
Announcing Progress Studies for Young Scholars, an online summer program in the history of technology 2020-05-20T00:52:53.706Z
How can nonprofits gain the advantages of the for-profit model? 2020-05-06T01:15:18.507Z
Why anything that can be for-profit, should be 2020-04-29T20:00:09.048Z
Over $1,000,000 in prizes for COVID-19 work from Emergent Ventures 2020-03-13T15:46:33.921Z
Epistemic standards for “Why did it take so long to invent X?” 2020-03-02T18:58:42.783Z
Draining the swamp 2020-01-28T21:37:03.542Z
More on polio and randomized clinical trials 2019-12-27T21:07:02.340Z
Polio and the controversy over randomized clinical trials 2019-12-20T19:49:44.991Z
Were vaccines relevant to 20th century US mortality improvements? 2019-12-10T00:13:46.593Z
A letter on optimism about human progress 2019-12-04T04:21:42.033Z
Instant stone (just add water!) 2019-11-13T22:33:39.903Z
Iron: From mythical to mundane 2019-10-24T22:43:45.898Z
Turning air into bread 2019-10-21T17:50:00.117Z

Comments

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-02-07T02:30:21.034Z · LW · GW

Interesting, but I think you're underestimating the impact of other general-purpose technologies, such as in energy or manufacturing. New energy sources can be applied broadly across many areas, for instance.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-02-04T21:49:29.643Z · LW · GW

One clarification: This is about the technological frontier, not about global development. See my followup post.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-02-04T05:17:17.599Z · LW · GW

That's a great way of putting it

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-27T18:56:41.255Z · LW · GW

Some hypotheses for “why stagnation” in my review of Where Is My Flying Car?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-25T19:42:31.147Z · LW · GW

Yes, I put logistics under transportation. Transportation of cargo has always been more important than passenger travel.

Containerization was huge, but it mostly happened 50+ years ago.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-25T19:41:45.942Z · LW · GW

Ah, you are from Eastern Europe? To clarify, the stagnation hypothesis is about the frontier of technological development in the wealthiest countries. I don't think there has necessarily been stagnation in global development.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-25T19:40:47.300Z · LW · GW

This analysis, and the stagnation debate in general, is really about the technological frontier. Global development overall has not necessarily been stagnating—India and China have seen huge growth in the last 50 years.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-25T07:32:05.139Z · LW · GW

There was far more progress in aviation from 1920–1970 than from 1970–2020. In 1920, planes were still mostly made of wood and fabric. By 1970 most planes had jet engines and flew at ~600mph. Today planes actually fly a bit slower than they did in 1970. Yes, there has been progress in safety and cost, but it doesn't compare to the previous 50-year period.

Similar pattern for automobiles and even highways.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-25T04:35:24.241Z · LW · GW

Also the phonograph, telegraph, telephone, radio, and television! If “information” wasn't a category before the late 1800s, it was by then.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-24T22:42:17.136Z · LW · GW

Large orgs can get things done, that's true.

In this post I specifically referred to the centralization and bureaucratization of research funding, e.g., the consolidation of research funding under the NIH/NSF.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-24T21:58:00.322Z · LW · GW

Thanks! I had to start from the ground level to build up to this perspective…

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-24T21:24:04.260Z · LW · GW

Maybe, see Dustin's comment above for related discussion

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-24T02:35:27.809Z · LW · GW

I'm not convinced by the optimists, either, and ADS made some good points. This post was laying the foundation for my response. With this framework I think you can analyze things in at least a slightly more rigorous way.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Technological stagnation: Why I came around · 2021-01-24T00:19:00.474Z · LW · GW

Yup, here is a roundup of recent “is stagnation over?” commentary: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-roundup

I would like to address / reply to this soon.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Instant stone (just add water!) · 2020-12-27T18:00:13.454Z · LW · GW

OP here. I will recuse myself from the conversation about whether this deserves to be in any list or collection. However, on the topic of whether it belongs on LW at all, I'll just note that I was specifically invited by LW admins to cross-post my blog here.

Comment by jasoncrawford on When life was literally full of crap · 2020-12-22T14:38:58.620Z · LW · GW

Re air pollution, there's already been significant improvement in wealthier countries, at least in the last ~century:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/emissions-of-air-pollutants?time=1970..2016&country=~GBR

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/air-pollution-london-vs-delhi

More info: https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution#the-long-term-decline-of-air-pollution-in-rich-countries

Comment by jasoncrawford on Instant stone (just add water!) · 2020-12-06T00:51:19.369Z · LW · GW

Good point, I skipped wood here. This is an old post, I mention wood in my more recent treatments of this topic.

And good point about reinforcing being an old technique! Another thing I learned about after I wrote this post is wattle & daub.

Comment by jasoncrawford on What is “protein folding”? A brief explanation · 2020-12-01T18:10:24.280Z · LW · GW

I'm not a comp bio expert, but the core of @johnswentworth's argument seems to be that “protein shape tells us very little about [protein reactions] without extensive additional simulation”, and “the simulation is expensive in much the same way as the folding problem itself.”

Both true as far as I understand, but that doesn't mean those problems are intractable, any more than protein folding itself was intractable.

So I think you can argue “this doesn't immediately lead to massive practical applications, there are more hard problems to solve”, but not “this isn't a big deal and doesn't really matter” in the long run.

Comment by jasoncrawford on The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine · 2020-11-18T20:27:35.036Z · LW · GW

Good question, I don't know. Someone pointed me to this technical description of mRNA technology which I haven't read yet, might see if it answers your question though: https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

Comment by jasoncrawford on The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine · 2020-11-10T18:22:11.266Z · LW · GW

Well here are some sources and further reading:

https://www.vaccines.gov/basics/types

https://www.sciencehistory.org/historical-profile/louis-pasteur

https://www.vbivaccines.com/wire/louis-pasteur-attenuated-vaccine/

RNA vaccine explainer from Moderna: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJlP91xjvsQ

A longer essay I wrote: https://rootsofprogress.org/smallpox-and-vaccines

Comment by jasoncrawford on A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall · 2020-11-08T02:28:34.814Z · LW · GW

Some folks at NYU are doing an interesting project collecting data and case studies on this: Transit Costs Project

Comment by jasoncrawford on A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall · 2020-11-08T00:38:11.624Z · LW · GW

Well, I think there are. See this article, especially South Korea: https://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132930/nuclear-power-costs-us-france-korea

Comment by jasoncrawford on A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall · 2020-11-07T01:00:06.752Z · LW · GW

Hm. Very interesting.

EDIT: I just remembered that I think this is mentioned in The Rise and Fall of American Growth and that it was attributed to an increase in specialization

Comment by jasoncrawford on “Prediction” and “explanation” are not causation · 2020-10-25T16:06:06.146Z · LW · GW

Yes, @NeuroStats likes to call it “Granger prediction” for this reason

Comment by jasoncrawford on “Prediction” and “explanation” are not causation · 2020-10-24T22:00:34.790Z · LW · GW

Yes. You will hear phrases like “X explains Y% of Z”, and that refers to a statistical association. Examples:

“Micro data show that an aging firm distribution fully explains i) the concentration of employment in large firms, ii) and trends in average firm size and exit rates, key determinants of the firm entry rate. An aging firm distribution also explains the decline in labor’s share of GDP.” https://www.nber.org/papers/w25382

“We found that twelve conditions most responsible for changing life expectancy explained 2.9 years of net improvement (85 percent of the total).” https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00284

Now, maybe in one or both of these cases, there actually is an explanation. But you can't assume that just because the term “explain” is used.

Comment by jasoncrawford on The Rise and Fall of American Growth: A summary · 2020-10-16T20:57:47.205Z · LW · GW

Re invention, in the late 1800s it was mostly done by private, individual inventors, not corporations. Companies would buy patents from inventors once a the invention worked, and then commercialize it. Edison's lab was unusual, a first. The corporate R&D lab got going in the early to mid-1900s. Some more context:

Comment by jasoncrawford on Some elements of industrial literacy · 2020-10-09T20:08:16.027Z · LW · GW

Good points. I sympathize with the concern. A term like this could turn into an insult to shut down conversation, like “denier” is sometimes. I don't want that.

Also, you don't have to be exited about battery density. That's a personal choice. I made a point of saying “can be” exciting, not “must be”. The point was not to degrade people who don't get excited about a specific thing but to show how a seemingly technical thing can be exciting when you make the right conceptual connections.

I agree that “literacy” should mean a sort of basic education, and that is what I intended here.

I agree that there are related concepts—you suggested “industry positivity”, we could also think of “industrial appreciation” or “industrial pride”—that go beyond literacy.

And so, yes, I think a person can be industrially literate without being industry-positive. I would argue that they are wrong, but if they knew the facts and just interpreted them differently than I do, I wouldn't accuse them of industrial illiteracy.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-08T19:50:00.195Z · LW · GW

On a tangent, I'm curious: do you think “broad sociological modeling” is fundamentally misguided? Or is it “usually wrong” just because it's really hard, or subject to bias, or something like that?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-08T01:23:12.884Z · LW · GW

“Almost entirely driven by decreases in infant mortality” is exaggerated. Infant mortality was ~20% and childhood mortality (under age 5) was ~50%. Yes, a lot of the increase came from childhood mortality, but life expectancy increased at every age.

(Also, I don't have time to dig into it now, but I am skeptical of the “15 hours” stat for hunter-gatherers.)

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-07T21:47:00.911Z · LW · GW

Re 2.2, a historical note: We had trains long before we had trucks, and people solved the last-mile problem with horses. Trains didn't decrease horse usage because they were actually complements, not substitutes. Dependence on horses only decreases with the motor vehicle.

Comment by jasoncrawford on The Rise and Fall of American Growth: A summary · 2020-10-06T19:30:18.264Z · LW · GW

Yes, I'm about a third of the way through Where Is My Flying Car? and it's amazing. Fascinating and spot-on IMO.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-05T22:17:19.717Z · LW · GW

Many people are saying things I consider dangerously close to "Let's toss industry and technology out of the window!"

Indeed, there is an active “degrowth” movement. cf. Giorgos Kallis: https://greattransition.org/publication/the-degrowth-alternative

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-05T18:12:56.334Z · LW · GW

The fact that we now see babies as precious is not an arbitrary feature of the modern world with no moral valence. It is an accomplishment.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-02T19:55:18.916Z · LW · GW

That's really not clear to you?

Don't you think it matters to the parents? And, for that matter, to the older siblings? To the child's friends—if they live long enough to make friends?

Do you actually think an infant or young child is just… replaceable?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-01T17:35:48.759Z · LW · GW

The point I was making is just that child mortality (before age 5) used to be ~50%. Edward is admittedly being pedantic.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-10-01T00:34:25.462Z · LW · GW

Interesting, thanks! Would love to see this going all the way back to ~1900…

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-09-30T22:31:57.072Z · LW · GW

If infant mortality was higher that'd be terrible, but I assume people would have more kids to compensate.

Are you saying it's morally acceptable for children to die, as long as people have more children to replace them?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Industrial literacy · 2020-09-30T19:04:04.470Z · LW · GW

I like that idea!

Comment by jasoncrawford on Progress: Fluke or trend? · 2020-09-14T01:43:46.429Z · LW · GW

Maybe, what would that mean exactly? Or what's an example of how that could be the case?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Progress: Fluke or trend? · 2020-09-13T01:20:06.295Z · LW · GW

Good point. Maybe I should have said, we have to believe that there is at least a chance that it wasn't a fluke.

If you are pretty sure it's a fluke, then what is there to study, and why bother?

On the other hand, if you're certain it's a trend, there is still a lot to study: What caused the trend? How much control do we have over the causes? Etc.

I agree that, if progress was somehow a fluke, then progress studies would ideally find that out. We should follow reason wherever it leads, and be open to the truth whatever it is.

But I think the motivation for the field is the idea that it's not a fluke, and empirically it seems to me that most people interested in the field see it as a trend.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Were vaccines relevant to 20th century US mortality improvements? · 2020-09-11T18:30:22.966Z · LW · GW

I've done more research since I wrote this. I'm not sure if this is true “for almost every viral disease with a vaccine”, but it might be true for many or most of them.

The big ones I know of where it's not true are smallpox and polio. Smallpox we don't have great data on because its vaccine was invented so early (1700s), but there's no reason to believe that its mortality rate was dropping significantly; in general big mortality rate drops didn't occur until later.

Polio we do have good data on, and it's clear that the epidemics continued, and indeed got worse, until the introduction of the vaccine in 1955. Polio is something of a special case in that it was not improved by sanitation.

Other diseases seem to have been ameliorated through sanitation, hygiene, and perhaps nutrition. I go into more detail on this in “Draining the swamp: How sanitation fought disease long before vaccines or antibiotics”.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? · 2020-09-10T14:47:27.440Z · LW · GW

I disagree, there are plenty of problems left to solve: https://rootsofprogress.org/the-plight-of-the-poor

Comment by jasoncrawford on Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers · 2020-09-05T00:42:52.331Z · LW · GW

Yes, we'll offer a full refund if you drop out before the third session (that is, you get to try to first two) with no risk. Thanks!

Comment by jasoncrawford on Rereading Atlas Shrugged · 2020-08-27T02:25:24.173Z · LW · GW

Very thoughtful and insightful post, thanks. I'm a big fan of Atlas Shrugged and have read it a few times, although the latest was many years ago. I agree with a lot of what you say here, especially about metaphysics and epistemology being fundamental.

However, I see the notion of the strike as a fantasy idea. Rand herself actually called it a “fantastic premise”. It was meant to dramatize the role of scientists, inventors and industrialists as heroes that society depends on. And it was conceived in the 1940s, when labor strikes were prominent in the news. Basically, instead of a labor strike, Rand asked, what if the thinkers went on strike?

In reality, the strike would never work, because the actual leaders of industrial society aren't all implicit Objectivists, and can't be convinced even in one of John Galt's three-hour conversations. And worse, if it did work, I think it would be an utter disaster—society would collapse, and it would not be easy for the strikers to come back and pick up the pieces.

But none of that matters to me, because the novel isn't meant as a practical plan for revolution, any more than Batman is meant as a realistic model for fighting crime. The value of the book, to me, is the depiction of scientific/industrial achievement as a romantic, noble quest, and (as you note) the relationship of that to a certain way of facing reality and truth.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? · 2020-08-24T15:00:18.100Z · LW · GW

I love this, and I actually think it's a very relevant comment! A poem like this is a type of celebration.

It reminds me that at the Golden Gate Bridge, there is a statue of the chief engineer, Joseph Strauss, with an inscription that reads:

Here at the Golden Gate is the eternal rainbow that he conceived and set to form a promise indeed that the race of man shall endure unto the ages.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? · 2020-08-18T17:16:02.248Z · LW · GW

If you want to see “creativity”, here is a book apparently by a US doctor and printed by a major US publisher that argues against the germ theory, claims Pasteur renounced it on his deathbed, and suggests that covid is due to “electromagnetic pollution” (including of course 5G): https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Contagion-Myth/Thomas-S-Cowan/9781510764620

Comment by jasoncrawford on How to analyze progress, stagnation, and low-hanging fruit · 2020-06-16T15:36:22.794Z · LW · GW

Oh that's weird. I thought they hadn't gotten pasted in properly, so I did them again. Must be an editor bug. Will fix, thanks

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why anything that can be for-profit, should be · 2020-05-01T22:51:14.896Z · LW · GW

All of these examples apply differently:

  • Lack of patent protection does not stop a nonprofit from sponsoring research to run a clinical trial for a repurposed drug
  • Regulation on insurance offerings doesn't stop a nonprofit from paying for people's health care as a charity
  • Free public schools don't stop a charity from offering an alternative free school

In each case, if a nonprofit wants to offer a product/service, they can do so, but the corresponding opportunities to offer the same product/service on a for-profit basis are prevented by the structural barriers.

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why anything that can be for-profit, should be · 2020-04-30T21:08:40.904Z · LW · GW

My sense is that they don't care nearly enough.

How could we find evidence one way or another?

Comment by jasoncrawford on Why anything that can be for-profit, should be · 2020-04-30T21:07:58.869Z · LW · GW

I have started nonprofits, and worked closely with others.

I have also seen nonprofits that produce a lot of material that no one reads and that has no impact, but that keep getting donations from donors who aren't paying much attention to impact, or who rationalize away the lack of it.

Examples of structural barriers:

  • Lack of patent protection, e.g., ability to obtain and enforce patent on repurposed drugs (example I mentioned and linked to in the article)
  • Regulation: e.g., many health insurance products you might want to create are illegal
  • Free public alternatives: e.g., it's hard to profit in K–12 education because of public schools, making private school a premium/luxury product for the rich; something like tax credits for private school could alleviate this