Posts

Built-in Measuring Spoons 2021-12-02T13:20:06.597Z
Experience with Cue Covid Testing 2021-12-01T02:50:05.274Z
Snoo App Thoughts 2021-11-29T16:40:05.361Z
Why Bedroom Closets? 2021-11-28T03:20:05.979Z
Giving Up On T-Mobile 2021-11-21T16:50:05.212Z
Experience on Methotrexate 2021-11-17T22:40:06.965Z
It's Ok to Dance Again 2021-11-12T02:50:02.506Z
Highlighting New Comments 2021-11-07T12:50:02.375Z
Baby Sister Numbers 2021-11-04T01:10:09.551Z
Vaccine Requirements, Age, and Fairness 2021-11-02T12:10:07.790Z
Comparing Options For Safer Events 2021-11-01T16:30:04.983Z
Indoor dancing is safe enough 2021-10-31T01:30:05.825Z
How Much is a Sweet? 2021-10-30T15:50:05.758Z
Child Walksheds 2021-10-25T21:00:06.347Z
T-Mobile: Spurious Account Takeover Warning 2021-10-23T15:30:06.030Z
Explaining Capitalism Harder 2021-10-17T02:40:07.488Z
What's your plan? 2021-10-13T01:20:06.951Z
Outdoor dancing is likely very safe 2021-10-11T01:40:02.498Z
Why Not a Natural Gas Generator? 2021-10-09T01:40:04.062Z
Candy Innovation 2021-10-04T13:50:03.541Z
Porchfest 2021 2021-10-03T14:20:03.703Z
Issues with Giving Multiplier 2021-09-29T21:40:08.778Z
Inner Belt 2021-09-28T03:50:06.954Z
Designing Low Upkeep Software 2021-09-25T18:50:05.900Z
Walkie-Talkies 2021-09-24T01:10:08.107Z
GiveWell Donation Matching 2021-09-21T22:50:06.548Z
Auto-Downloder Chrome Extension 2021-09-19T01:30:04.215Z
Kids Moving Pictures 2021-09-18T02:00:07.848Z
History of counting to three? 2021-09-15T18:10:05.092Z
Equal Parenting Advice for Dads 2021-09-12T11:33:13.577Z
Childcare III 2021-09-12T01:30:04.700Z
Handling Identical USB Sound Cards 2021-09-10T12:30:06.100Z
Thinking About College Funding 2021-09-09T19:20:05.053Z
Selecting the Default Browser in Facebook on Android 2021-09-09T00:50:03.665Z
Lots of Hooks 2021-09-06T18:50:02.477Z
Bikes and Babies 2021-09-06T01:50:02.121Z
Kids Roaming 2021-09-04T14:20:02.558Z
Somerville Election Thoughts 2021-08-21T22:30:02.296Z
NJ Still Has Silly Rotary Rules 2021-08-14T02:00:02.320Z
Delta, Deaths, and Vaccinations 2021-08-07T19:10:02.802Z
Moving Away From The GPL 2021-08-06T11:50:01.828Z
How to get mRNA after J&J 2021-08-05T01:50:03.741Z
How Many Affordable Units? 2021-08-02T16:20:02.327Z
Cherry Pit Storage 2021-07-31T17:30:05.338Z
Come Build Affordable Housing! 2021-07-25T14:10:02.649Z
Housing Without Street Parking: Implemented 2021-07-24T02:40:02.341Z
Fire Law Incentives 2021-07-22T12:30:01.713Z
Pi Sound Box 2021-07-20T04:10:02.545Z
Essentialness of Data 2021-07-14T03:40:03.795Z
Firefox does not block analytics by default 2021-07-10T12:50:05.150Z

Comments

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Experience with Cue Covid Testing · 2021-12-01T11:52:16.227Z · LW · GW

That's a really high rate of failed tests; our household has done ~50, with ~3 failures.

If you talk to customer service, I believe they will replace failed tests for free?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Snoo App Thoughts · 2021-11-29T23:29:57.628Z · LW · GW

Have you tried https://pypi.org/project/snoo/ ?

(I haven't, but I liked http://www.relevantmisc.com/r/python/2020/05/26/visualizing-baby-sleep/)

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Giving Up On T-Mobile · 2021-11-24T22:20:15.247Z · LW · GW

In the YouTube emoji case, people were doing something that looked abusive to the automated system, and then the manual review got it wrong. Then, after additional review, YouTube acknowledged they got it wrong, put things back, and said they were going to work on making this less likely in the future. This doesn't seem like enough of a risk to care?

In the case of the TOS, there are all sorts of worrying things in most TOS. In general, I don't think this sort of thing is worth worrying about unless the company is actually doing something.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Giving Up On T-Mobile · 2021-11-24T14:58:13.948Z · LW · GW

This seems very unlikely to me? While I've seen a few news stories about people being locked out (a) they're rare enough to be news when they happen and (b) there are typically other factors, with borderline or abusive behaviors I wouldn't do.

(Additionally, I'm less worried about this because I work for Google and know a lot of other people that work for Google, but that isn't a factor for most people considering this)

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on T-Mobile: Spurious Account Takeover Warning · 2021-11-12T02:53:13.229Z · LW · GW

The latter.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on T-Mobile: Spurious Account Takeover Warning · 2021-11-11T13:10:04.947Z · LW · GW

5GB for $30/m is quite good for the US

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Anna and Oliver discuss Children and X-Risk · 2021-11-07T20:56:10.686Z · LW · GW

Among the 26% who don't have children, I'd be curious what the age distribution is: I wonder whether some of them may still?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-06T12:43:58.757Z · LW · GW

(This was initially my interpretation, but after Lily woke up I asked her, and that was also her response)

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-06T02:03:15.564Z · LW · GW

I mean, she may think that it is such a large number that it is unrealistic that I could count that high overnight? Or even in my lifetime?

For example, if you claimed to have counted to a googol overnight I wouldn't believe you, but it's still finite.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T20:14:32.148Z · LW · GW

You can't have two piles each of size Noranoo; that's too big

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T17:19:03.231Z · LW · GW

She doesn't have area yet either, sadly

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T17:18:43.453Z · LW · GW

Lily is operationalizing "even" as "you can divide it into two piles that are the same size".

Since you can do this for Noranoo, you can't for Norklet.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T17:17:34.214Z · LW · GW

One big difference, I think, is that you can't get to ω by (finite) counting, but you can get to Noranoo?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T12:34:33.924Z · LW · GW

I don't know how to find out, since Lily doesn't understand square roots yet.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-05T12:33:37.507Z · LW · GW

I asked Lily, and she told me that Noranoo is even, so I guess it isn't prime. Norklet is odd, but she doesn't know what prime means so I don't have a good way to find out.

The product of all primes below Noranoo is (not asking Lily) Noranoo. (Because otherwise it would be greater than Noranoo, and so clamps to Noranoo)

The sum of all positive integers below Norklet is Noranoo, since again it clamps.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-04T19:18:28.958Z · LW · GW

Is Norklet a regular integer?

Yes

regular numbers, but with an overflow policy of staying at the endpoint.

Yes

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Baby Sister Numbers · 2021-11-04T19:17:48.743Z · LW · GW

Yes. If you start at zero and add 1 Noranoo times, you'll get Noranoo.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Vaccine Requirements, Age, and Fairness · 2021-11-02T16:10:10.185Z · LW · GW

You're citing a post from June 2021 when covid rates in the US were at their post-vaccination pre-Delta all-time low, and when most people did not expect the rise in cases we've seen since. I also don't really disagree with that advice, even now, for individual choices. But I don't think it's the right approach for deciding whether and how to organize large public events?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-02T10:49:37.223Z · LW · GW

The microcovid model isn't CFM/person, it is CFM/CF. That is, it says you need to have sufficient purification capacity to filter the volume of the room five times per hour. See above for details on the measurements in the study (27x20 room with a 12ft ceiling).

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T22:21:56.816Z · LW · GW

All the children here who would be capable enough to dance at our regular dances are old enough for the EUA.

In the before times, people would bring infants and wear them in carriers, but I wouldn't bring one currently even if a dance allowed it.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T20:15:02.128Z · LW · GW

transmission x0.35 ... x0.11 for reception ... total of x0.0385

I'm using microcovid.org's numbers here. If you think they're giving out the wrong numbers you could file an issue at https://github.com/microcovid/microcovid/issues, but they're probably going to want citations in papers and not in news articles.

The costs of always having a mask with you (and the costs of getting rejected because you forgot your mask)

I proposed organizers have surgical masks available, which at $0.08/each is very reasonable. On the other hand you probably already need a mask to get to the event: both public transit and taxis require masks here.

The costs of always having a mask with you and especially the costs of wearing a mask, seem much higher than the costs of 'being vaccinated'.

I agree. The cost of being vaccinated (allocated to a single event) is super low, because it divides across so many activities/events.

"Not allowing food" seems very costly as well.

It depends a lot on the event. Most contradances here already don't offer food; the one I organize is unusual in that it (in normal times) did put out some snacks (usually popsicles) at the midpoint.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T19:52:49.164Z · LW · GW

Updated

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T19:13:22.560Z · LW · GW

On damp masks, this wasn't something I noticed when we hosted an outdoor contra. People who've held dances like this indoors: is that something you've seen?

With children, Pfizer received the EUA for 5-11 last week, and the CDC will likely sign off this week.

Speaking for myself and not for BIDA, while I think intergenerationality is important, I don't think it is so important that it should preclude having dances before vaccination is available for all, if vaccination is necessary for safety.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T18:11:51.854Z · LW · GW

At least here maskless dancing wouldn't be an option even if I was in favor of it: https://www.somervillema.gov/news/public-indoor-face-covering-mandate-place-somerville https://www.cambridgepublichealth.org/services/diseases-conditions/Covid-19/masks.php

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T18:05:05.108Z · LW · GW

They do get you four times as much socializing for the same level of risk, but so do some other options like air purifiers. If you're already doing the others, and you are doing something risky enough or are sufficiently cautious, then rapid tests do make sense.

EDIT: this is also different by country; I'm thinking of the US where rapid tests are somewhat hard to find in stock, and cost ~$12/each

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Comparing Options For Safer Events · 2021-11-01T17:59:09.821Z · LW · GW

Are you counting test acquisition? I don't see anywhere to buy them in bulk as an event organizer, and stopping at a store is easily 10min.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-11-01T16:46:25.181Z · LW · GW

I don't think rapid tests are worth it here; see the follow-up.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-11-01T10:41:44.445Z · LW · GW

Sorry, what I was trying to say is that there aren't any other options for unvaccinated people who have not yet had covid.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-10-31T20:16:35.348Z · LW · GW

After the discussion here and on FB, I've updated the post to switch from "silent" to "normal".

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-10-31T20:15:58.807Z · LW · GW

I've updated the post to switch from "silent" to "normal"

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on How Much is a Sweet? · 2021-10-31T19:53:51.383Z · LW · GW

It wouldn't make sense to change one half of the system without the other. If you don't think it is worth distinguishing sugar from other things with a high glycemic index, you should probably then have a higher limit for this combined category. I don't think it generally makes sense to put kids on a ketogenic diet for no reason.

Additionally, aren't there reasons other than glycemic index to avoid sugar?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-10-31T14:06:28.117Z · LW · GW

This is a dance form with typical exertion somewhere between walking and lightly jogging. I don't think you get anything similar to shouting?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-10-31T14:03:04.700Z · LW · GW

On masks: I went with surgical based on my memory that at the outdoor event we held there was a mix of n95, surgical, and well fitting cloth masks. Ex: https://www.jefftk.com/davis-contra-2021-10-13.jpg

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Indoor dancing is safe enough · 2021-10-31T13:56:39.453Z · LW · GW

It is very different if you have high transmission probability per hour, but not if you have low.

For example, if I had a 50% chance of catching covid from a 15 minute interaction, conditional on the other person having covid, then if I spent 2 hours with that person, my risk still can't go above 100% times the chance that they have covid. On the other hand, if I spent that 2 hour period with eight sequential people, my risk can be up to eight times higher.

Right now, the tool estimates that if you spend an hour with a single person indoors who has covid, masked and vaccinated, the chance that you get covid is about 0.1%. This is low enough that the difference between one person continuously vs several seriously is not significant.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on How Much is a Sweet? · 2021-10-31T11:13:30.753Z · LW · GW

Sorry, are you saying that you want to count flour as equivalent to sugar? And keep calories from carbohydrates to under 10% of total calories?

(These particular pancakes do not actually have very much flour. Much higher levels of egg and sour cream)

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-27T19:18:29.147Z · LW · GW

They wrote back, linking me to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kz9zMgWB5C27Pmdkh/common-knowledge-about-leverage-research-1-0?commentId=2QcdhTjqGcSc99sNN

("we're working on a couple of updates to the mistakes page, including about this")

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Child Walksheds · 2021-10-26T10:45:56.131Z · LW · GW

Part of why I'm okay with them crossing the streets they do cross is that they can use the strategy of only crossing when they can't see any moving cars. This means they don't have to use distance / speed estimation.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-26T01:38:30.546Z · LW · GW

It does look weird to me that CEA doesn't include this on the mistakes page when they talk about Pareto. I just sent CEA an email to ask:

Hi CEA,

On https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/our-mistakes I see "The Pareto Fellowship was a program sponsored by CEA and run by two CEA staff, designed to deepen the EA involvement of promising students or people early in their careers. We realized during and after the program that senior management did not provide enough oversight of the program. For example, reports by some applicants indicate that the interview process was unprofessional and made them deeply uncomfortable."

Is there a reason that the mistakes page does not mention the involvement of Leverage in the Pareto Fellowship? [1]

Jeff

[1] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kz9zMgWB5C27Pmdkh/common-knowledge-about-leverage-research-1-0?commentId=znudKxFhvQxgDMv7k

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Child Walksheds · 2021-10-25T22:31:38.267Z · LW · GW

They've both been very trustworthy for a long time, as demonstrated in daily life. Very occasionally they, usually the younger one, will attempt to sneak something that is prohibited, but it's very rare. I was much more concerned that they wouldn't cross carefully enough, then that they might go farther than allowed.

But this is my experience with my particular kids, and I'm sure others have different experiences.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-25T20:41:26.948Z · LW · GW

I think what you're pointing to is:

I have a large number of negative Leverage experiences between 2015-2017 that I never wrote up due to various complicated adversarial dynamics surrounding Leverage and CEA (as well as various NDAs and legal threats, made by both Leverage and CEA, not leveled at me, but leveled at enough people around me that I thought I might cause someone serious legal trouble if I repeat a thing I heard somewhere in a more public setting)

I'm getting a bit pedantic, but I wouldn't gloss this as "CEA used legal threats to cover up Leverage related information". Partly because the original bit is vague, but also because "cover up" implies that the goal is to hide information.

For example, imagine companies A and B sue each other, which ends up with them settling and signing an NDA. Company A might accept an NDA because they want to move on from the suit and agreeing to an NDA does that most effectively. I would not describe this as company A using legal threats to cover up B-related information.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-24T00:57:42.374Z · LW · GW

If you read the full comments of this thread you will find reports that CEA used legal threats to cover up Leverage related information.

Link? I'm not finding it

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years · 2021-10-21T17:21:04.843Z · LW · GW

Do you have a better way of estimating the timing of new technologies that require many breakthroughs to reach?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years · 2021-10-20T02:46:26.754Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure what you mean by "convincing dirt dynamics simulation and a flock of emulated nematodes"? I'm going to assume you mean the task I described in my post: teach one something, upload it, verify it still has the learned behavior.

Yes, I would still expect it to be at least 58 years away for human scale. The challenges are far larger for humans, and it taking over 40 years from people starting on simulating nematodes to full uploads would be a negative timeline update to me. Note that in 2011 I expected this for around 2021, which is nowhere near on track to do: https://www.jefftk.com/p/whole-brain-emulation-and-nematodes

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years · 2021-10-19T13:22:09.869Z · LW · GW

In 1970 if a poorly funded research lab said they would get a rocket to land on its tail by 1980 and in 1980 they had not succeeded, would you update your estimated date of success to "centuries"

That isn't the right interpretation of the proxy task. In 2011, I was using progress on nematodes to estimate the timing of whole brain emulation for humans. That's more similar to using progress in rockets landing on their tail to estimate the timing of self-sustaining Mars colony.

(I also walked back from "probably hundreds of years" to "I don't think we'll be uploading anyone in this century" after the comments on my 2011 post, writing the more detailed: https://www.jefftk.com/p/whole-brain-emulation-and-nematodes)

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years · 2021-10-19T11:59:15.316Z · LW · GW

I would consider 1 human permadeath equal to at least 1 human life that is experiencing the worst possible suffering until the end of the universe.

This is so incredibly far from where I would place the equivalence, and I think where almost anyone would place it, that I'm baffled. You really mean this?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-18T21:36:49.983Z · LW · GW

I'm generally very anti-woo, but I expect presenting it clearly and without baggage would make it stop working because the participant would be in a different mental state.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-18T21:32:01.287Z · LW · GW

Programmers below T-5 are expected to earn promotions or to leave.

This changed something like five years ago [edit: August 2017], to where people at level four (one level above new grad) no longer needed to get promoted to stay long term.

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-18T00:24:30.321Z · LW · GW

Neither Jessica nor I said there was no effect on health

I had read "GiveWell's analysis found that, while there was a measurable positive effect on income, there wasn't one on health metrics" as "there was an effect on income that was measurable and positive, but there wasn't an effect on health metrics". Rereading, I think that's probably not what Jessica meant, though? Sorry!

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-17T15:49:21.793Z · LW · GW

I'd expect that to show up in some long-run health metrics

GiveWell discusses this here: https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming

Summary:

  • ~0.1kg weight increase

  • Unusably noisy data on hemoglobin levels

  • No effect on height

While other metrics might show a change, if collected carefully, I think all we know at this point is that no one has done that research? Which is very different from saying that we do know that there is no effect on health?

Comment by jefftk (jkaufman) on My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage) · 2021-10-17T15:16:07.620Z · LW · GW

while SCI is and was listed as a global health charity, GiveWell's analysis found that, while there was a measurable positive effect on income, there wasn't one on health metrics

That doesn't sound right? They say there is strong evidence that deworming kills the parasites, and weaker evidence that it both improves short term health and leads to higher incomes later in life. But in as much as it improves income, it pretty much has to be doing that via making health better: there isn't really any other plausible path from deworming to higher income. https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming