Posts

I'm Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don't Like It 2020-09-20T18:40:04.410Z · score: 22 (12 votes)
EA Relationship Status 2020-09-19T01:50:02.731Z · score: 25 (7 votes)
Escalation Outside the System 2020-09-08T18:20:09.275Z · score: 27 (10 votes)
Shed Wall Plans 2020-09-06T22:20:05.048Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
Estimating the ROI of Insulation 2020-09-03T20:30:08.886Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
WebBundles and URL Randomization 2020-08-26T17:50:05.692Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
The Best Toy In The Park 2020-08-25T14:30:06.615Z · score: 20 (18 votes)
How to set up foot pedals 2020-08-23T16:40:06.052Z · score: 19 (6 votes)
Exposure or Contacts? 2020-08-22T13:00:06.215Z · score: 15 (6 votes)
Coronavirus and Rents II 2020-08-21T02:30:08.289Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
The US Already Has A Wealth Tax 2020-08-19T14:50:07.808Z · score: 45 (20 votes)
Spending Update 2020 2020-08-18T01:40:05.390Z · score: 12 (3 votes)
Setting Up a Green Screen 2020-08-14T20:00:08.048Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
Effect of Numpy 2020-08-10T01:00:09.373Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
Evaluating Opus 2020-08-08T16:40:05.679Z · score: 20 (4 votes)
Burley Bee kids bike trailer review 2020-08-02T17:20:07.601Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
Food Spending During Covid 2020-08-01T17:10:07.739Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Jam is obsolete 2020-07-26T14:00:07.179Z · score: 24 (17 votes)
Photos Before Drywall 2020-07-25T01:40:07.143Z · score: 17 (6 votes)
Restocking 2020-07-23T13:40:05.833Z · score: 12 (5 votes)
Pulse and Glide Cycling 2020-07-19T19:02:24.070Z · score: 11 (3 votes)
Maximal Ventilation 2020-07-11T01:20:02.171Z · score: 30 (8 votes)
Partially Stepping Down Isolation 2020-07-08T11:40:02.776Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
Poly Domestic Partnerships 2020-07-03T14:10:02.763Z · score: 16 (5 votes)
Second Wave Covid Deaths? 2020-07-01T20:40:01.823Z · score: 35 (11 votes)
Somerville Mask Usage 2020-06-30T14:50:10.238Z · score: 17 (5 votes)
Preview On Hover 2020-06-24T22:20:02.980Z · score: 20 (8 votes)
Coronavirus and Rents 2020-06-20T16:20:03.133Z · score: 17 (7 votes)
Second Wave? 2020-06-14T14:00:02.786Z · score: 25 (13 votes)
Keep: Move checked items to bottom 2020-06-11T00:30:02.566Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Growing Independence 2020-06-07T20:20:02.805Z · score: 139 (54 votes)
Pantry Staples for DIY 2020-06-04T18:10:02.955Z · score: 16 (7 votes)
Air Conditioning 2020-06-02T17:20:02.901Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
Simplifying Board Games 2020-05-31T14:10:02.578Z · score: 28 (13 votes)
Shutting Down RegularlyScheduled 2020-05-29T22:50:04.573Z · score: 8 (1 votes)
Wrist Issues 2020-05-28T16:50:03.189Z · score: 16 (5 votes)
Wikipedia Edit War Update 2020-05-22T11:30:02.800Z · score: 51 (18 votes)
Wrapping and Centering 2020-05-21T14:30:02.911Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
Race for the Galaxy: 9 Choose 6 2020-05-20T12:10:02.444Z · score: 12 (5 votes)
Bag-Drying Clips 2020-05-19T14:00:02.481Z · score: 12 (4 votes)
English Bread Regulations 2020-05-18T13:20:02.672Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
Outbuilding Thoughts 2020-05-17T12:10:02.533Z · score: 12 (2 votes)
Learning Rhythms 2020-05-16T11:00:02.361Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
Dishwasher Filter 2020-05-15T20:30:02.779Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Adding a Housemate Under Covid 2020-05-14T21:30:02.518Z · score: 16 (2 votes)
Running Wired Ethernet 2020-05-13T17:20:02.643Z · score: 11 (5 votes)
Kids and Time 2020-05-12T11:40:02.644Z · score: 30 (9 votes)
Setting up a new Mac 2020-05-11T11:50:02.712Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
Really Fresh Baking 2020-05-10T11:40:02.836Z · score: 27 (7 votes)
Shared House Setup 2020-05-09T11:30:02.425Z · score: 26 (12 votes)

Comments

Comment by jkaufman on I'm Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don't Like It · 2020-09-21T14:36:43.308Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What matters is not how well your ballot reflects your preferences, but how well the outcome matches the preferences of the electorate. IRV can have very strange results where when a candidate starts to get more support it actually hurts them (http://zesty.ca/voting/sim/) and if voters/campaigns are strategic you can get worse outcomes than first past the post (http://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/VSE/)

Comment by jkaufman on I'm Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don't Like It · 2020-09-21T14:31:33.903Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

A "Yes on 2" board member posted a response on the FB side of this discussion: https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100184817106872?comment_id=10100184909856002

Summary:

  • IRV has more of a track record which is useful for convincing people to support it

  • "later-no-harm" matches real preferences well

Comment by jkaufman on I'm Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don't Like It · 2020-09-20T22:23:49.401Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I like Ping's simulations a lot! The two main problems with it are that by representing voter preferences as a plane there will always be a condorcet winner (when a lot of the weirdness and voting systems comes down to how they handle the cases when there isn't one) and that assumes voters always vote their true preferences (when a lot of the weirdness in voting systems comes from strategic voting).

Comment by jkaufman on EA Relationship Status · 2020-09-20T12:43:28.517Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Was number of children ever asked on an EA survey?

Comment by jkaufman on Covid 9/17: It’s Worse · 2020-09-19T16:15:51.394Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think it's the other way around: If your forest is burning every 20 years then the fire is relatively minor. There's much less accumulated fuel so it won't burn as hot or be as destructive as we see now.

Comment by jkaufman on EA Relationship Status · 2020-09-19T15:21:13.066Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

On the other hand, talking to a friend in the Bay area rationality scene, it sounds like maybe even with the gender imbalance there are more women looking to settle down than men? In which case the gender imbalance is actually likely making marriage more common?

Comment by jkaufman on Escalation Outside the System · 2020-09-09T15:15:56.599Z · score: 9 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I was curious what tone changes NPR made between the archived version you linked and the current version. I ran a quick diff:

  • hand-wringing about looting. -> condemnation of looting
  • bemoaned the property damage -> denounced the property damage
  • "" -> Osterweil is a self-described writer, editor and agitator who has been writing about and participating in protests for years. And her book arrives as the continued protests have emerged as a bitter dividing point in the presidential race.
  • I spoke with Osterweil about this summer's riots, the common narratives surrounding looting, and why "nonviolence" can be a misleading term. -> I spoke with Osterweil
  • Now, as protests and riots continue to grip cities, she argues that looting is a powerful tool -> Now, as protests and riots continue to grip cities, she stakes out a provocative position: that that looting is a powerful tool
  • The rioters who smash windows and take items from stores, she says, are engaging in a powerful tactic -> The rioters who smash windows and take items from stores, she claims, are engaging in a powerful tactic* new Black and Brown nations -> new Black and brown nations
  • the Civil Rights bill -> the civil rights bill
  • You know, one of the causes of the L.A. riots was a Korean small-business owner murdering 15-year-old Latasha Harlins -> You know, one of the causes of the L.A. riots was a Korean small-business owner [killing] 15-year-old Latasha Harlins
Comment by jkaufman on Escalation Outside the System · 2020-09-09T01:52:01.721Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Excellent post; thanks for the link!

I like the first section as well, especially the "war is not the instrument he thought it was" perspective.

(I grew up Quaker, and while at this point I am not 100% pacifist I am generally extremely skeptical about the ability of violence to improve situations)

Comment by jkaufman on Shed Wall Plans · 2020-09-07T20:20:20.305Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ability to mount things on the wall

Nice to have, but not critical?

Bring additional utilities (water, sewer, networking) into the space?

Not planning on water/sewer. I should decide about ethernet and do it at this stage if I'm going to. Probably yes ethernet?

what's the climate like where you're building?

Northeast US. Primarily heating. Climate details: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67yzoZE88Qd3EjQ8d Not planning for AC, though the window will be able to take a window unit if need be.

Comment by jkaufman on Exposure or Contacts? · 2020-08-22T16:53:28.210Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is a great point: it looks like peak infectiousness is quite short-lived (~2d?), so even if someone does have a contacts model they should be counting person A this week and person A last week as separate contacts.

Comment by jkaufman on Food Spending During Covid · 2020-08-21T19:40:23.898Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't think we're stocking up more now than we were before: we already had an approach of stocking up non-perishables pretty substantially, and while we ran our stocks down a bit in the first couple months of the lockdown we've since replenished back to approximately where we were.

I'm quite surprised that you've found making bread and ginger beer at home to be more expensive than buying them. Bread, for example, is essentially flour, water, yeast, and salt. That should come to 30¢-70¢/lb, depending on how cheaply you can get flour, while commercially produced bread is typically twice that.

Comment by jkaufman on The US Already Has A Wealth Tax · 2020-08-21T19:35:28.304Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If everyone knew that this was how things worked, then in raising money from investors the startup founders would put aside a small amount of the investment round to pay wealth taxes. VCs would not object, because unlike a startup founder pulling a massive salary, this isn't any sort of bad sign.

Comment by jkaufman on The US Already Has A Wealth Tax · 2020-08-20T11:52:54.932Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

The situation is not that inflation makes your savings less valuable, it is that your non-dollar assets become nominally more valuable partly due to inflation, and that nominal-only gain is taxed.

Say you bought a famous painting for $10 million in 1990 money, and sold it for $20 million in 2020 money. The IRS sees (and taxes) a gain of $10 million, but actually your painting didn't gain at all: dollars just became less valuable.

Comment by jkaufman on Spending Update 2020 · 2020-08-18T12:22:08.692Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Two: about 1/5 partner, 4/5 me.

I'm reasonably happy with how we're spending our money, though probably my biggest goal is to allocate our donations better.

Comment by jkaufman on Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was · 2020-08-16T13:58:57.589Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

As far as I can tell, the risk of Covid-19 for a college student is trivial compared to the risks of playing football normally.

I would find that more persuasive if I didn't think that "the risks of playing football normally" were already much too high

Comment by jkaufman on Effect of Numpy · 2020-08-15T17:31:33.671Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The amount of latency, even in an extremely efficient implementation, will be high enough to keep that approach from working. Unless everyone has a very low latency audio setup (roughly the default on macs, somewhat difficult elsewhere, impossible on Android), a wired internet connection, and relatively low physical distance, you just can't get low enough latency to keep everything feeling simultaneous. A good target there is about 30ms.

The goal with this project is to make something feel like group singing, even though people are not actually singing at the exact same time as each other.

Comment by jkaufman on Negative "eeny meeny miny moe" · 2020-08-15T00:05:55.365Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

As much as I would like to claim to be very insightful, I was mostly just thinking about how the children's game works. Sorry!

Comment by jkaufman on Effect of Numpy · 2020-08-14T20:21:34.359Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

sends everyone the results

I think that's where you're imagining this differently than I am. In the approach I am describing, everything is real time. The only time you hear some thing is when you were singing along to it. You never hear a version of the audio includes your own voice, and includes the voices of anyone after you in the chain. The goal is not to create something and everyone listen back to it, the goal is to sing together in the moment.

Comment by jkaufman on Effect of Numpy · 2020-08-14T00:00:52.657Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Why are you putting your six singers into two groups of three? The ideal, from the perspective of everyone hearing as many people as possible, is to order your singers a, b, c, d, e, f. Each person hears the audio from those ahead of them. If you have really very large numbers of people, such that arranging them in a full chain gives an end to end latency that is too high, then you can use some sort of chain of groups, for example a, b + c, d + e, f + g.

If you have any sort of chain that is reasonably long, then you want to be resilient to losing a link. That's much easier to do when you have a server that everyone is sending and receiving audio from. Our current design can recover smoothly from someone having a network hiccup because all that happens is you lose a bit of audio data and then resume. Key to this is that people downstream from the one having a network problem don't have their audio interrupted, beyond losing audio from the person who is no longer connected.

In theory a peer to peer approach could offer slightly lower latency, but I expect the game there is minimal. Sending a packet from a to b, versus sending a packet from a to a high-connectivity well-placed central server to b, isn't actually that different.

With the FFT, I think you may be effectively reinventing lossy audio compression? I think we'll likely get much better results using opus or another modern codec.

Comment by jkaufman on Effect of Numpy · 2020-08-12T12:23:31.298Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The goal here is for this to feel like group singing as much as possible. I think in your proposal there will be many users where a doesn't hear b and b also doesn't hear a? And not just because they're singing at the same wall time?

I also don't see why you're proposing the FFT? Yes, that lets you accumulate frequency information, but you lose timing information in the process. Since our goal is to transmit full audio, I'm not sure how you see the FFT fitting in.

Comment by jkaufman on Evaluating Opus · 2020-08-09T20:41:53.398Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

To support fully streaming operation in the browser, I think we would need to switch to using web sockets. Doable, but complicated and may not be worth it?

200ms of latency isn't ideal, but also isn't that bad. The design does not require minimizing latency, just keeping it reasonably small.

Comment by jkaufman on Evaluating Opus · 2020-08-09T00:47:02.762Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You can do that, but then you need the server to retain per-client state. Everything stays much simpler if we don't!

Comment by jkaufman on Food Spending During Covid · 2020-08-02T22:24:26.587Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Not trying to count things like when my work brought my team out for a celebratory lunch, on the company card. since the not eating at restaurants is mostly about us trying to save money.

Comment by jkaufman on Food Spending During Covid · 2020-08-02T21:39:11.955Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

In our case, some of our housemates were eating out reasonably often but our family wasn't. I think my wife and I ate at a restaurant we paid for maybe twice a year on average?

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-08-02T21:37:12.278Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I expect cough syrup is a small enough part of anyone's diet that trying to make it work without sugar is a pretty low priority?

I wasn't aware people had moved away from alcohol based mouthwash; looking at my store brand Listerine knockoff it seems to be 21.6% alcohol.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-08-02T18:22:36.237Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What sort of drugs are you thinking of that we use sugar to preserve?

If they're drugs that people don't consume often or in large quantities then the sugar may not be all that relevant from the health perspective.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-08-02T16:12:13.609Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You're completely right, but now that we have freezers we can preserve fruit without adding sugar.

Comment by jkaufman on Food Spending During Covid · 2020-08-02T01:39:46.312Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Does your $387 ($194/person) include the costs of delivery?

Back of the envelope, I think the risk of getting covid via going into stores is high enough that delivery is worth it.

Comment by jkaufman on Food Spending During Covid · 2020-08-02T01:35:38.969Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

People don't just need protein, we need some amount of overall protein and separately sufficient amounts of individual proteins. When people try to optimize for spending as little as possible on food, and get most of their protein from carbohydrates, it's common to have trouble getting enough lysine. If you do the numbers on lysine I think you're likely to find that adding some beans to your mix makes a lot of sense.

Comment by jkaufman on Photos Before Drywall · 2020-07-28T17:56:19.167Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Houses have a lot of hidden infrastructure, but they're still relatively straightforward. If you opened up a wall of my house and asked me "what is this pipe doing" I think I could figure it out pretty quickly (as could a professional).

As for sizing, that's another thing that I expect to get solved with better technology. If you can measure a few reference points (ex: corners of the room, outlet locations), software really ought to be able to tell you the sizes and precise locations of everything in the picture.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-07-27T16:34:49.886Z · score: 11 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I looked at the sugar levels, and they're pretty different:

  • 100g raspberry jam: 46g sugar

  • 100g raspberries: 5g sugar

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-07-27T15:13:16.667Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Raspberries turn to mush when they thaw.

Yup! Luckily if I'm substituting them for jam mush is good.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-07-27T15:12:25.245Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Good point; I wasn't trying to say that the level of sugar that's in the fruit already doesn't count, and the problem is only the sugar you add. Instead, I'm saying that you generally want to keep your sugar consumption down, and that's a lot easier if you're not adding large amounts of it to your fruit.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-07-27T15:10:25.157Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

As I wrote above, in the US most houses have a large unfinished area where space is not a premium and there's plenty of space to put a chest freezer. For example, my house has a ~1000 sqft basement, which can't be legally finished (and is somewhat damp). We have the washer, dryer, freezer, water tank, electrical panel, gas meters, and furnace down there, but there's still tons of extra space which is empty / storage.

Places without basements typically have garages, which are similarly cheap.

Comment by jkaufman on Jam is obsolete · 2020-07-27T00:33:44.812Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Keeping food frozen costs money.

It doesn't cost very much money, depending on your circumstances. In the US, most houses have a large unfinished area where space is not a premium and there's plenty of space to put a chest freezer. For ~$500 you can get a 15 ft.³ chest freezer that should last 10+ years, or under $4/month. At 300kWh/y it's using $2-5/month in electricity. So each cubic foot of frozen food costs ~$0.60/month. This is extremely cheap, and easily pays for itself by letting you buy food when it is on sale / in season.

It also risks spoilage if the freezing temporarily fails, which is hard to test for later.

That is a risk, but if you're keeping your freezer at 0F (standard) you have quite a long time for it to get up to 32F in the event of a power outage, as long as you leave it closed.

If jam is obsolete, it's only for sufficiently rich first world families.

Jam is obsolete for the median American family today, and more of the world every year?

many people like sweet spreads

I think we generally haven't adjusted for sugar being something that's important to limit. People definitely like it, but they often think of it as fruit or still reasonably healthy, and not as candy. I have no objection at all to someone putting jam on things because they love it and it's worth the sugar to them, but at least in my family growing up we thought of it is just another thing you might spread on food, like butter, peanut butter, or cheese.

Comment by jkaufman on Partially Stepping Down Isolation · 2020-07-25T18:49:17.121Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Where are you? A lot of the analysis in the post is based on Massachusetts doing pretty well now, which isn't universal.

Comment by jkaufman on Ethernet Is Worth It For Video Calls · 2020-07-18T20:48:54.348Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The conference will only be as successful as the weakest system.

That sounds right. The VC is a chain of components running from your mic and camera, through your computer, your wired connection, your ISP, the internet backbone, their ISP, their Wi-Fi/cables, their computer, and eventually their screen and speakers. If any of those flake out that will interrupt the call.

Comment by jkaufman on Six economics misconceptions of mine which I've resolved over the last few years · 2020-07-13T16:34:43.916Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Also note that many companies that you think of as tech companies and employ a lot of highly paid software engineers are not classified as tech companies in indices. For example, the S&P has Google and Facebook under "communications".

Comment by jkaufman on Maximal Ventilation · 2020-07-11T17:59:48.565Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yup!

Comment by jkaufman on Partially Stepping Down Isolation · 2020-07-08T19:49:22.708Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

How big is your household, and what risk bands do you consider yourselves in?

Six adults in our 20s-30s, two young children, no one at especially elevated risk.

Comment by jkaufman on Partially Stepping Down Isolation · 2020-07-08T14:01:23.941Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

At this point, you can place an Instacart order here and have it arrive in a few hours; Instacart seems to have gotten over their scaling issues.

Earlier we were organizing group buys from a restaurant supplier (our first one: https://www.jefftk.com/p/organizing-a-group-buy-of-flour)

Comment by jkaufman on Poly Domestic Partnerships · 2020-07-03T16:28:33.487Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

He has a blog with a few posts on it, but it looks like he forgot to pay for hosting: http://davidchudzicki.com/

Comment by jkaufman on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-02T00:32:03.233Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Capacity is definitely higher, since this is much less concentrated than the first round.

Even if protocols have improved, deaths staying essentially flat since mid April while cases have grown ~5x is very strange.

Comment by jkaufman on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-02T00:30:33.932Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

More sunshine in that these are sunnier places and also sunnier times of year, so you get it two ways.

Comment by jkaufman on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-01T21:22:23.410Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Have it, it's fun! git clone git@github.com:CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.git and look at time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv

When I looked a couple weeks ago it seemed that it was worst around LA, but I haven't checked when it's done since.

Comment by jkaufman on Somerville Mask Usage · 2020-06-30T19:20:35.107Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

When we're looking back on this and trying to figure out what the effect of masks was, it's going to be really hard to separate the norm-building effects of wearing masks from their actual protective effects outdoors.

Comment by jkaufman on Preview On Hover · 2020-06-25T12:44:33.622Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

It looks like there used to be a plugin for this? https://wordpress.org/plugins/wp-live-preview-links/ https://github.com/soderlind/wp-live-preview-links ? But visiting the demo page https://soderlind.no/wp-live-preview-links/ it doesn't seem to work anymore.

Comment by jkaufman on Preview On Hover · 2020-06-25T12:41:21.004Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

the preview should be where your attention is when you're engaging with that feature

I don't want to force users to engage with the feature if they don't want to, or keep their cursors in any particular place.

Comment by jkaufman on Preview On Hover · 2020-06-25T00:40:50.662Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Fixed!

Comment by jkaufman on Preview On Hover · 2020-06-24T23:54:01.456Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I do find that the jefftk.com hovers are... too far off to the side. I'd prefer them if they were basically just to the right of the main column.

You're right, that's where they should go. I'll go mess with the CSS.