Posts

Assembling Sets for Contra 2020-02-19T03:40:02.164Z · score: 8 (1 votes)
More writeups! 2020-02-07T03:10:02.313Z · score: 33 (10 votes)
More Rhythm Options 2020-02-01T03:10:02.499Z · score: 1 (3 votes)
Porting My Rhythm Setup 2020-01-26T21:20:02.070Z · score: 9 (2 votes)
Emergency Prescription Medication 2020-01-24T01:20:02.562Z · score: 12 (4 votes)
Disasters 2020-01-21T19:20:01.544Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter 2020-01-21T00:30:02.176Z · score: 0 (7 votes)
Adjusting Outdoor Reset 2020-01-19T18:20:02.028Z · score: 1 (3 votes)
Is NYC Building Much Housing? 2020-01-18T20:50:01.676Z · score: 0 (3 votes)
Fiddle Effects Tech 2020-01-17T17:00:01.784Z · score: 2 (4 votes)
Repossessing Degrees 2020-01-13T21:40:01.884Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
Farewell to the Entertainer 2020-01-10T02:30:01.702Z · score: 3 (4 votes)
Old Airports 2020-01-09T03:30:01.561Z · score: 14 (4 votes)
Looking at Mixers 2020-01-06T16:10:01.773Z · score: 5 (2 votes)
Credit Cards for Giving 2020-01-04T23:00:01.650Z · score: 13 (5 votes)
Running and Optimizing 2020-01-04T02:40:02.032Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Toy Organ 2020-01-01T19:30:01.375Z · score: 7 (3 votes)
BIDA Musician Booking 2019-12-31T20:10:01.639Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Folding Couch Monitor 2019-12-31T03:40:01.567Z · score: 16 (6 votes)
Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay 2019-12-29T03:20:01.343Z · score: 55 (23 votes)
Out in the Great Northwest 2019-12-28T03:40:01.697Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Naming Rooms 2019-12-27T02:40:01.644Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
Gortha Ick 2019-12-26T03:20:01.923Z · score: 9 (2 votes)
Absolutely Winning Bridge Hands 2019-12-25T02:50:14.711Z · score: 9 (2 votes)
Offset Norms 2019-12-23T21:30:02.084Z · score: 16 (4 votes)
Freezer Contents 2019-12-23T02:40:02.002Z · score: 4 (4 votes)
Pixel 3a Review 2019-12-22T03:00:02.105Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
Old and New Saw Blades 2019-12-21T02:00:01.545Z · score: 13 (7 votes)
Should We Still Fly? 2019-12-20T02:00:01.640Z · score: 55 (16 votes)
One Million Dollars 2019-12-19T02:10:02.034Z · score: 60 (18 votes)
Big Community Solstice 2019-12-18T02:30:01.857Z · score: 18 (5 votes)
Voluntourism 2019-12-17T00:40:01.552Z · score: 16 (6 votes)
Boston Solstice 2019 Retrospective 2019-12-15T21:20:01.767Z · score: 32 (9 votes)
Eggy Waffles 2019-12-14T02:40:01.773Z · score: 9 (4 votes)
Fractional Sweets 2019-12-13T01:50:02.266Z · score: 14 (4 votes)
Two-headed Go 2019-12-12T03:30:01.526Z · score: 8 (4 votes)
Long Bets by Confidence Level 2019-12-09T14:20:02.076Z · score: 22 (8 votes)
Ungendered Spanish 2019-12-07T16:20:02.001Z · score: 20 (9 votes)
LW For External Comments? 2019-12-05T18:30:02.217Z · score: 52 (18 votes)
Elementary Statistics 2019-12-05T02:00:02.266Z · score: 12 (6 votes)
Long-lasting Effects of Suspensions? 2019-12-03T20:40:01.264Z · score: 16 (6 votes)
Vocal Range 2019-12-01T15:50:02.022Z · score: 17 (7 votes)
How To Change a Dance 2019-11-30T13:40:01.625Z · score: 11 (5 votes)
Getting Ready for the FB Donation Match 2019-11-27T19:20:02.156Z · score: 9 (5 votes)
Effect of Advertising 2019-11-26T14:30:02.095Z · score: 27 (9 votes)
Market Rate Food Is Luxury Food 2019-11-23T15:10:02.344Z · score: 10 (7 votes)
Solar One Year In 2019-11-22T15:20:01.839Z · score: 18 (8 votes)
Hybrid Lottery Update 2019-11-21T14:30:01.394Z · score: 10 (2 votes)
Affordable Housing Workarounds 2019-11-20T13:50:01.412Z · score: 10 (3 votes)
Drawing on Walls 2019-11-19T15:00:02.091Z · score: 16 (5 votes)

Comments

Comment by jkaufman on More writeups! · 2020-02-08T02:57:06.781Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, sorry, including that one was a joke ;)

Comment by jkaufman on Political Roko's basilisk · 2020-01-28T00:10:44.459Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

You might like Nomic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomic

Comment by jkaufman on Disasters · 2020-01-26T12:04:10.216Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

"When in 2014 the war began, it was a complete surprise and shock for everyone" is the most interesting part to me. People often think variants of "it couldn't happen here" or "we would have plenty of warning".

Comment by jkaufman on Disasters · 2020-01-24T01:15:48.317Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Medicines are tricky legally (I want to write a follow-up about this)

Follow-up: https://www.jefftk.com/p/emergency-prescription-medication

Comment by jkaufman on Disasters · 2020-01-23T18:21:51.828Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Water doesn't make much sense to do by mail, since a full water container is so much heavier and more hassle than an empty one.

Food that you buy and keep until it expires and needs to be thrown away is much more expensive than food you rotate through, and is less useful in cases where you forget to go to the store and want some extras of things. It also doesn't let you buffer occasional trips to cheap stores or buffer buying things on sale.

Medicines are tricky legally (I want to write a follow-up about this) and are different person to person.

I'm not seeing much of a market here?

Comment by jkaufman on Disasters · 2020-01-23T18:17:58.383Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The ongoing maintenance for food and water is pretty low:

  • For food, when I open containers of non-perishables I take them from the front of the line, and when I buy new ones I put them at the back of the line.

  • For water, 14gal/person is two 1ft^3 water containers. I've set a recurring reminder to swap the water out every five years.

An additional cost is the hassle of moving/selling/giving away your stockpile if you move.

For water you can just dump it out and refill at your new place. For food it's pretty small compared to the rest of what you're moving, maybe two ~1ft^3 boxes per person?

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T19:25:28.569Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

UHT for cream isn't as bad as it is for milk, and it can be done more or less well, but typically all the cream at grocery store, including the organic stuff, will be UHT: https://www.peapod.com/product-search/heavy whipping cream

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T15:45:12.700Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Where are you? In the US cream is generally UHT pasteurized, but if you're somewhere where that's not common your cream won't last as long.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T15:40:57.191Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'm not sure there's any purpose for which chocolate and bacon are both suitable replacements for butter.)

Both would be tasty on toast. Even simultaneously!

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:50:40.638Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Our local store brand is 11g fat, 7g of which is saturated, no trans fats: https://www.fatsecret.com/calories-nutrition/lucerne/sweet-cream-butter

Same as Kerrygold: https://www.fatsecret.com/calories-nutrition/kerrygold/pure-irish-butter

(I don't know whether Hotel Bar is a fancy butter or not, or whether you're in favor of high trans fats in your butter)

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:39:41.581Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The eggbeater in the image you use in your post appears to have wooden parts (the handle).

Yup. But we've been putting it in the dishwasher for years and it's doing fine. It will eventually lose its handle, but it's about $2 at the thrift store.

(As I wrote above, though, for whipped cream in particular I usually do it by hand)

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:34:53.213Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That's fine if you like it, though I would like it less. I really enjoy the contrast between the cool smooth unsweet whipped cream and the strongly flavored warm sweet cobbler.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:33:46.850Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Generally, I'm not very sure why you would use whipped cream instead of butter.

This post is based on my (apparently not universal!) understanding that whipped cream is far tastier than butter.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:30:24.546Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

The composition of fancy butter isn't very different: something like 82% fat instead of 80%. Again if you're making croissants this matters, but not if you're making, say, chocolate chip cookies or cake.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T02:25:31.087Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You can put it in your dishwasher, for example

We'll put our eggbeater in the dishwasher. It's stainless steel and it seems fine.

If it eventually breaks we can get a new one; they're very cheap used.

an electric hand mixer, which is faster than either manual option

I'd be surprised if it was faster after accounting for needing to get the hand mixer out and assemble it? Whipping a serving of cream by hand took me 16s (I timed it for this post)

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:59:51.315Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

But I'm confused why you're eating whipped cream rather than plain butter. Given you're only looking at one dimension (cost per calorie), why not go even cheaper?

Mine is definitely a simplistic analysis, but I'm looking at two dimensions: taste and cost. I'm arguing that since whipped cream is both tastier and cheaper than fancy butter it makes a much better condiment.

Most of the disagreement seems to be over whether whipped cream is actually tastier, which is totally fair.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:57:17.348Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This sounds slower than using an eggbeater, without being any faster to clean up?

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:56:24.562Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

There is a cold spot in my refrigerator (not the freezer!) where the ambient temperature is approximately 25 °F.

If part of my fridge were below freezing I would find that very frustrating, but it sounds like you've figured out how to use it to good effect!

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:54:50.486Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I typically run the eggbeater under hot water while turning it slowly. While you normally need soap to clean greasy surfaces, the fat in cream is suspended in the water in a way that keeps the whole thing water-soluble and it comes right off. It takes maybe 15s.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:52:02.766Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This is probably another preference thing, but I'm quite happy to eat plain whipped cream on plain berries (or Key lime pie, or cobbler). They're all plenty sweet as is.

Comment by jkaufman on Whipped Cream vs Fancy Butter · 2020-01-21T01:49:18.432Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, in baking you should definitely not substitute whipped cream for butter, that would go very poorly.

But there's rarely any advantage to fancy butter in baking either, unless you're making something like croissants where the butter is a main component of the final flavor.

Comment by jkaufman on Repossessing Degrees · 2020-01-14T01:51:49.037Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You can't legally stop people from truthfully disclosing that they have a repossessed degree, because of the first amendment.

The two of us could sign a contract where I pay you $100 and you agree not to disclose what you ate for breakfast this morning, and agree not to disclose the existence of the contract. That would be a reasonably standard non-disclosure agreement (NDA). Having a system where student loans normally survive bankruptcy, but can be discharged if you agree not to disclose that you ever had a degree seems similarly compatible with the first amendment?

left many archived traces of that information

In practice I think this is unlikely to matter much for most people. If you're applying for a job, and the job asks for your resume, they're not going to go poking around dusty corners of the web looking to see if you had some other version with different contents. Someone willing to put in that much additional effort would probably just spend it on evaluating the candidate directly.

Comment by jkaufman on Whole Brain Emulation: Looking At Progress On C. elgans · 2020-01-04T14:27:40.900Z · score: 6 (2 votes) · LW · GW

See https://www.jefftk.com/p/we-havent-uploaded-worms and Why Is There No Successful Whole Brain Simulation Yet (2019)

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-31T21:41:43.116Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

My model is that over time systems get more similar between companies, as we start learning the best way to do things and get good open source infrastructure for the common things.

But you may be right: there's a really strong tendency to build layers on top of layers, which means, for example, "familiarity with the Google Ads stack" is very important to the company and not a very transferrable skill.

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-31T12:19:30.233Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I agree, though these are factors that are exacerbated by the field being so new.

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-31T12:18:15.922Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I've been putting the max allowed into a pre-tax IRA since I started at Google in 2012. I also put in a little in 2008-2009 when I was at BBN, but much less. We took $10k out, which the IRS let's you do without penalty, when we bought our house. It's invested in index funds, and is currently at $387k.

Our house is also a kind of savings/investment. You can think of the mortgage as a combination of rent and forced saving.

Figure out how much you'd like to have saved for retirement, and see what that leaves?

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-31T12:11:23.634Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I can only name one: Zapier

Automattic, which makes WordPress, is another one

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-29T21:05:49.476Z · score: 8 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I'm not sure we disagree. I was thinking more like a 15% chance. This is high enough that it's definitely worth being prepared for, but I wouldn't take 4:1.

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-29T16:21:48.407Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'm talking about the top end of the market, which is almost entirely in the US though not confined to the Bay Area: NYC, Boston, Seattle, etc have similarly high levels of programmer pay at high-paying companies. Ex: I'm in Boston and making ~370k.

Comment by jkaufman on Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay · 2019-12-29T16:18:12.555Z · score: 12 (5 votes) · LW · GW

What we don't understand is why this has persisted: the barriers to entry are low, the pay is high, why don't people shift into the field and bring up labor supply?

Comment by jkaufman on Absolutely Winning Bridge Hands · 2019-12-25T16:24:23.267Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks! I've updated the post to fix this.

Comment by jkaufman on Absolutely Winning Bridge Hands · 2019-12-25T16:24:01.464Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks! Updated the post to fix this.

Comment by jkaufman on Should We Still Fly? · 2019-12-24T02:23:07.266Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Expanded this into a full post: https://www.jefftk.com/p/offset-norms

Comment by jkaufman on Should We Still Fly? · 2019-12-22T13:10:09.138Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

It sounds like you're assuming that averting the death of a child means there will be an additional person in expectation? Instead it looks more like parents have a target number of kids: https://davidroodman.com/blog/2014/04/16/the-mortality-fertility-link/

Comment by jkaufman on Should We Still Fly? · 2019-12-22T12:19:11.899Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

In some ways that's the opposite of how I think about it. If you're considering spending money to make the world better, my view is you should spend that money on whatever most improves the world. If you think that is AMF donations, you should just do that. If you think that is carbon offers, or carbon tax advocacy organizations, you should do that instead.

The main model I can think of where you should both give to AMF and also buy offsets for it is one where you're trying to promote a norm that everyone should offset the emissions that come from their decisions. I don't think this norm is likely to catch on, and I think a tax is a much better way to implement something similar.

Comment by jkaufman on Should We Still Fly? · 2019-12-22T03:02:23.157Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

If you have another look at the post, I talk about how flying would still make sense in many cases at carbon capture costs.

Comment by jkaufman on Boston Solstice 2019 Retrospective · 2019-12-16T20:15:58.186Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What browser are you using? Testing in Chrome, Safari, and Firefox on both desktop and mobile views I'm not seeing the audio player covering the text.

Comment by jkaufman on Boston Solstice 2019 Retrospective · 2019-12-16T03:30:00.924Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think something like what you're describing would work best with very well known songs, or with musicians who are very good at listening and following. But I suspect that any songs people were muddling through would be pretty painful to the people without instruments.

There are a lot of aesthetics a solstice could have, but I like it best when it can make the full arc down through dark-and-serious. And I think that's not really compatible with a room full of people with instruments.

Comment by jkaufman on Boston Solstice 2019 Retrospective · 2019-12-16T03:24:46.068Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If someone wanted to volunteer to make sheet music for next year I'd be happy to get them the songs well enough in advance. But it would likely be a lot of transcribing...

Comment by jkaufman on Resetting Somebody Will v2 · 2019-12-15T22:23:47.068Z · score: 5 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I think these are the notes, if someone wanted to make sheet music (I don't know how to notate rhythm:

a   d   c#    d  b  a
Our new world is so close.

a    d   c#  d     b     a d  d    e   f#   g  f#
Mars has treasures we're only just starting to find.

a    d c#  d     b   a   d   d    e   f#  g   f#  g
Frozen mountains and crimson dust waiting for footprints

a    a    g   f# e
That will not be mine.


e d  d    e     e  d   d   d     e
A hundred years to run the first tests

e a g   f# d     d   b     a
another to raise the first dome.

a   d     d    e     e    d d   e
The moon, then Mars, then Titan next,

e a    g    f# d     d    b   a
A life time to touch each new home.

[same as first verse]
And I want it so much.
Close my eyes, I can taste the Mars dust in the air.
In the darkness the space stations shimmer in orbits that
I will not share.


d   g    a     b   a   f#  d      g   a  b  a  f#
But I'll teach the student who'll manage the fact'ry

d    g  a    b   a     f#   d     f# e  d  e
That tempers the steel that makes colonies strong.

d   g    a     b   a   f#  d    g    a   b a f#
And I'll write the program that runs the computer

d    g  a    b   a     f#   d     f# e  d  e
That charts out the stars where our rockets belong.


e  e    a  a  a   a  d  d  a   g    f# e
It will never get easy to wake from my dream

f#    g   a  a   a a     d  d  a  g   f# e
When the future I dream of is so far away.


d   g  f# g   a   b  d  d   d
But I  am willing to sacrifice

g   a     b a     d    d   g   a     b a     d
Something I don't have for something I won't have

d   f#  e d  e    d   d
But somebody will someday.
Comment by jkaufman on Two-headed Go · 2019-12-13T01:58:09.599Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Did you talk out loud when doing this?

Yup. We didn't try to hide things. We figured he was enough better than us that we weren't going to be able to lay traps, and just focused on playing a solid game.

I wonder what the ELO difference would be for doing this with chess.

I'm curious too! People should collect more data!

In this case, I think it was probably larger than +500, since we won by a lot. Though it's just one sample.

Comment by jkaufman on Ungendered Spanish · 2019-12-11T03:18:26.913Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You don't need to make inanimate words gender neutral, so no need for "le oficine". But yes, "le niñe".

Comment by jkaufman on Long Bets by Confidence Level · 2019-12-09T16:29:04.628Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Unless your expectation is that your counterparty's chosen charity has negligible effectiveness (for good or bad) relative to yours, it seems to me that this calculation is unlikely to be the one you actually want to do.

Great point! I think this is often the case for bets between people who do or don't consider effectiveness in choosing charities, or where people have sufficiently strong value disagreements that each thinks of the other's charity as neutral, but you're right that this is unusual.

Comment by jkaufman on Ungendered Spanish · 2019-12-09T04:09:26.425Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I suspect it would be "le jefe" / "les jefes", with no changes to existing gendered forms.

Comment by jkaufman on Pieces of time · 2019-12-08T16:50:25.524Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

"Will it be the same day after nap? That's so silly. How can it be the same day after children go to bed?"

Comment by jkaufman on Ungendered Spanish · 2019-12-08T00:36:31.197Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Having the nonbinary identity enter public consciousness seems to have caused the neutral pronoun to take on a weight and colour that makes it harder to apply it to non-nonbinary people. In English, since use in situations where gender is irrelevant is already grammatical, so I'd guess this has a negligible effect on usage (though it does seem to have caused a notable amount of brain inflammation in terfs and reactionaries that I must mention but probably shouldn't go into depth about), but in a different place, seems like this might be more of a thing

This isn't how I think the path of 'they' has gone in English? Using it where gender is irrelevant is super new ("my friend said they might be late") and felt wrong to me ten years ago. Having there be specific individuals who go by 'they' feels like it has done a lot to get people to practice and be comfortable with 'they', though it's possible I'm paying too much attention to my local communities?

Comment by jkaufman on LW For External Comments? · 2019-12-06T02:00:18.147Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW
  1. I'm imagining you'd create an LW account if you didn't have one.

1 & 2. Yes, it's just two views into the same comment thread.

3 & 4. These are UI questions, but I would think having them work the same as on LW would make sense.

  1. Yes the comment is posted by your LW account. This would be implemented by having the comment composition box be in a cross-domain iframe hosted on lesswrong.com. The independent blog can't impersonate you.
Comment by jkaufman on Pieces of time · 2019-12-05T02:04:23.884Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW · GW

My younger (3.5y) child seems to experience the world something like this. She's very often confused about whether she's waking up from a nap or from the night, she'll say "but we haven't had dinner yet" when going down for a nap, she'll ask for breakfast when waking up for a nap, etc.

Comment by jkaufman on 2019 Winter Solstice Collection · 2019-12-04T18:03:51.175Z · score: 7 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Boston

Saturday December 14th, 7pm-9pm

https://www.facebook.com/events/2757426844297175/

Comment by jkaufman on Jacy Reese (born Jacy Anthis)? · 2019-12-02T19:32:26.473Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If others are looking at this: Contributions/Utsil, Contributions/Bodole