Comment by jnarx on Open thread, Oct. 27 - Nov. 2, 2014 · 2014-10-30T20:26:37.115Z · LW · GW

I think this particular example doesn't really exemplify what I think you're trying to demonstrate here.

A simpler example would be:

You draw one ball our of a jar containing 99% red balls and 1% silver balls (randomly mixed).

The ball is silver. Is this surprising? Yes.

What if you instead draw a ball in a dark room so you can't see the color of the ball (same probability distribution). After drawing the ball, you are informed that the red balls contain a high explosive, and if you draw a red ball from the jar it would instantly explode, killing you.

The lights go on. You see that you're holding a silver ball. Does this surprise you?