Factoring P(doom) into a bayesian network 2024-10-17T17:55:37.455Z

Comment by Joseph Gardi (joseph-gardi-1) on The Dictatorship Problem · 2024-10-18T01:33:25.794Z · LW · GW

Just my opinion: the concerns are valid but exaggerated.

Perhaps exaggeration is justified in order to get people's attention since most americans are still treating this as a normal election.

Comment by Joseph Gardi (joseph-gardi-1) on Why I’m not a Bayesian · 2024-10-17T22:43:28.464Z · LW · GW

My attempt at a TLDR for this: Bayesian assign a probability to each belief in order to represent uncertainty but this is insufficient because there are multiple kinds of uncertainty: vagueness, approximation, context-dependence, and sense vs nonsense, knightian. And sometimes we humans make logical errors when we try to do bayesian inference.