Posts

Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? 2021-06-12T03:27:53.840Z
Assessing Interest in Group Trip to Secure Panamanian Residency [Imminent Rules Change] 2021-06-03T21:51:10.580Z
Quick examination of miles per micromort for US drivers, with adjustments for safety-increasing behavior 2021-04-19T23:19:36.163Z
Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation 2021-02-16T19:24:14.598Z

Comments

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? · 2021-06-14T19:47:25.013Z · LW · GW

My guess is that this isn't going to be worthwhile to look into in this case (facing a complicated, deadly disease with many, many medicines being taken for it, and a fragile health status) but I appreciate the suggestion.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? · 2021-06-13T18:45:39.115Z · LW · GW

I really appreciate the detailed explanation here and expression of the level of confidence in your belief. Thanks so much for this!

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? · 2021-06-13T17:55:33.815Z · LW · GW

Mid 30s, and yes

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Would you like me to debug your math? · 2021-06-12T03:30:44.810Z · LW · GW

Are you open to auditing existing math (vs. observing and commenting on real-time creation)?

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Cryonics signup guide #1: Overview · 2021-06-07T21:34:26.695Z · LW · GW

I've left relevant comments on a number of the sections, but I think it's worth strongly emphasizing that you can have a much different experience than this sequence outlines! And having this different experience can be a very reasonable choice to make.

As someone financially constrained, who has high uncertainty on his finances and the state of technology 20+ years from now:

  1. I pursued term life insurance; it was fast, easy and cheap. I pay ~$10 / month for my cryo coverage, with the rate locked in for the next 20 years. All three providers I moved forward with were compatible with cryo, around the same price, and easy to work with. The policy I settled on is with Haven Life. I expect every insurance policy is compatible with the Cryonics Institute; they work with you to find a solution, and there are many. See this comment for why term life insurance can be a good choice: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPDSB3WEEAb8Swuyc/4-1-types-of-life-insurance?commentId=5sXoDYZzRr2AcafeF

  2. I went with CI, and paid the lifetime membership fee. A post in this sequence estimates that cost as equivalent to $2 / month. If I accept that, my total financial outlay is $12 / month for cryo coverage for the next 20 years; this is much cheaper (although also potentially less feature-rich) than the over $100 / month this sequence provides guidance to obtaining.

  3. Going with CI can be a very reasonable decision. Not only can it be significantly more affordable, but I personally don't believe there are meaningful differences in cryopreservation quality (it's all very bad and will require appx. equally advanced technology to reanimate). Furthermore, if you have short timelines, financial sustainability is less likely to matter between the two (it's more likely both last for 30 years than for 500 years).

  4. Many of the "optional additional steps" were a built-in part of the CI sign-up process, in my case.

Additionally, there are many more cryopreservation options and optional next steps you can potentially take. CI informs you of some of those (Alcor may as well) and there's a lot of unique information shared in this FB group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/cryonicists/

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on #3: Choosing a cryonics provider · 2021-06-07T21:23:41.472Z · LW · GW

FWIW, I do not think that Alcor > CI represents a consensus opinion; when I investigated this question ~1 year ago, it seemed likely to me that there was little difference other than cost (CI wins) and financial sustainability (Alcor wins).

I personally don't believe most other differences are meaningful (especially e.g. profusion quality), although I'm not an expert on many aspects of this.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on #4.2: Cryonics-friendly life insurance carriers · 2021-06-07T21:20:49.167Z · LW · GW

It's my impression that most, if not all, insurance carriers can be made compatible with CI at least. They have a number of acceptable options, one of which all 3 of the carriers I investigated were happy to abide by.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on #4.1: Types of life insurance · 2021-06-07T21:19:48.827Z · LW · GW

Beyond eventual self-funding, there are other reasons to potentially consider a term policy:

  1. Even if you do not expect to self-fund, if your financial assets will increase in the future and are low right now, the much lower term-cost may be worthwhile. I pay $10 / month for my term coverage, and I would not have opted in to the ~$100/month average you project elsewhere.

  2. If you expect that technological progress will greatly increase during your lifetime, e.g. short AGI timelines, or curing all disease, you may be primarily interested in coverage for the next ~20 years vs. after that time.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on #6: Optional additional steps · 2021-06-07T21:16:35.470Z · LW · GW

The Cryonics Institute includes a Living Will, Durable Power of Attorney for Health Care, and Religious Objection to Autopsy form in their sign-up materials. Only one of the first two is required, and the objection to autopsy form is also not required.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on #4.4: The insurance underwriting process · 2021-06-07T21:14:13.817Z · LW · GW

My experience applying for term life insurance with ~3 carriers was all required a medical exam.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Assessing Interest in Group Trip to Secure Panamanian Residency [Imminent Rules Change] · 2021-06-06T17:12:31.985Z · LW · GW

FWIW, this, and similar practices that imply dual citizenship isn't allowed, anecdotally seem to be a very common (perhaps the standard) situation. For example, the US doesn't expressly allow dual citizenship, and there's language in multiple places about renouncing other citizenships, but I've seen estimates that ~5-10% of US citizens have another citizenship and multiple US Congressmen are public about having multiple citizenships as well. I haven't heard about any US enforcement against multiple citizenships.

Having looked into many citizenships and residency programs, this situation is common amongst a high percentage of them, and outside of a few rare country exceptions (not present here) everyone seems to move forward being dual citizens without issue despite this. I do wish laws were clear and explicit about these sort of things, and that there was express permission for multiple citizenship, but it does seem that for a long time across many (most?) international jurisdictions multiple citizenships have been and are allowed in practice, even when commonly 'officially' disallowed.

For example, I mentioned this in response to a comment about Netherlands citizenship on the original post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jHnFBHrwiNb5xvLBM/?commentId=psZcBFaZfQnzJDXeq

I do think, however, moving forward on this does require some willingness to accept that in-practice behavior differs from what may be implied by a country's official regulation, and that isn't a fit for everyone. For what it's worth, to me, after learning quite a bit about this issue moving forward doesn't feel messy at all, but I certainly understand others feeling differently.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Assessing Interest in Group Trip to Secure Panamanian Residency [Imminent Rules Change] · 2021-06-06T16:58:43.020Z · LW · GW

I don't think it'd be very annoying at all. If, for example, you weren't doing significant economic activity in Panama on an ongoing basis, your US taxes would be unaffected and you wouldn't need to file any taxes in Panama (pretty confident).

If you're aiming for citizenship like I would be, then the main work is:

  • The upfront time and monetary investment
  • Showing investment / interest in Panama and knowledge about it for the 5 year later evaluation (probably involves at least 2 more visits to Panama during that time)
  • Then renewing your passport every 5-10 years
Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Assessing Interest in Group Trip to Secure Panamanian Residency [Imminent Rules Change] · 2021-06-03T23:57:10.280Z · LW · GW

Sorry about that, and thanks for letting me know. This should now be resolved.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-06-03T21:37:46.994Z · LW · GW

A lawyer who works on Paraguayan citizenship responded to an email inquiry of mine saying that you must reside in Paraguay for 183+ days of each year in order to pursue citizenship. I don't think this information is definitive, but it suggests another reason why that program many not be attractive.

UPDATE: Many sources confirm that the main difference between the programs is that Panama's provides a path to citizenship without ever staying very long in-country, while Paraguay's is maintainable as a permanent residency with only short occasional visits, but to gain Paraguayan citizenship you must spend the majority of 3 years in-country. One source for this (though I've looked at many): https://nomadcapitalist.com/second-passport/paraguay/

FWIW, a lawyer I'm speaking to about these options says that Paraguay's program is expected to change in the near future as well (Panama's is ending); they sit on the Paraguayan committee that's working on amending the law. See this about Panama: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEbe9o9GErpKgqTMc/assessing-interest-in-group-trip-to-secure-panamanian

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on "Existential risk from AI" survey results · 2021-06-02T18:58:03.862Z · LW · GW

I redid the visualization of this on Tableau so it'd be colorblind-friendly and more filterable: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/josh3425/viz/RevisualizationofRobBensingersSurveyResultGraph/Dashboard1

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-04-20T22:11:19.433Z · LW · GW

No double taxation issue then would be quite the detriment to the appeal of Israel from a taxation perspective. Do you happen to have a source or more info about that?

Thanks for noting this information with more granularity than I provided / had.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-04-20T22:06:32.918Z · LW · GW

Thanks for that link! I do think the lack of taxation can be quite a lot of money in certain circumstances.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-04-20T22:06:03.496Z · LW · GW

Thanks for noting this. FWIW, I think that sentence was talking about the entire process, not just preliminary steps.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-04-20T22:03:48.389Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure; it does look like this was inaccurate! Thanks for correcting it.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Quick examination of miles per micromort for US drivers, with adjustments for safety-increasing behavior · 2021-04-19T23:21:00.113Z · LW · GW

A dialogue between myself and Ruby that may be of interest (shared with permission): 

Ruby: A question: why do you set single-car crashes to zero? 

My response: It seemed you were interested in something like "if you're a safe person, how safe is driving", and I thought single-car accidents may be particular indicators of being 'unsafe' in some ways. I'd be happy to add calculations that include single-car accidents as well. 

Ruby: Maybe, but there are reasons why a safe driver might be a single-car crash too: 
- hit a pot hole, 
- lost traction in bad weather (rain, snow) 
- swerved out of the way of a another car (is that 1 car or 2 car crash?) or out of a pedestrian/animal/whatever. 
- general car malfunction (tire blown, steering, breaks) 

My response: Yeah I think what constitutes a 'safe' driver is pretty unknown, and I wasn't ultimately sure what adjustment to make. A perfectly safe driver, for instance, could arguably prevent each of these examples. Additionally, it's likely an oversimplification to remove all of a single driver's share of distracted and drowsy driving crashes, as there's likely some percentage of those that are unavoidable.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Reflections on AI Timelines Forecasting Thread · 2021-04-06T23:37:02.738Z · LW · GW

This has very recently (over the past week) changed drastically to the median being 2189.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work · 2021-02-20T18:43:37.685Z · LW · GW

Thus, if you go to the doctor and they measure your Vitamin D levels as sufficient, that definitely is very good Covid-risk news for you personally. If they measure your levels as insufficient, that definitely is very bad Covid-risk news for you personally.


I expect something in this direction is correct, but "definitely" and "very good... very bad" seem likely too strongly worded if you supplement Vitamin D significantly prior to this test. I expect in the relevant studies, a very small percent of people are achieving 'sufficient' Vitamin D levels via supplementation. If that is true, then the mechanism by which you're achieving the test result may be quite different than the mechanism by which Covid-risk is reduced in a way that doesn't have the same effect.

I do acknowledge that it is possible that all the gigantic correlations are a big coincidence that results from intermediation from some combination of otherwise poor health, other sunlight effects and socioeconomic status, and failing to control for such matters.

This seems to be making the point I made above. In addition to these examples, Vitamin D supplementation may only affect the test result without e.g. causing Vitamin D uptake elsewhere that matters within the body, or something like that.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-19T22:37:50.988Z · LW · GW

The Gold Card seems great; approximately ~$100-$300 for 3 years of a second residency via a method that appears pretty simple and accessible to more people than pretty much any option I discuss above. I'm quite interested in it and going to research more. Thanks so much for sharing.

(I found your Canada experience valuable info-wise as well. It was quicker and more expensive than I'd expected, especially since you said your experience was slower and less expensive than is typical.)

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-19T22:14:44.287Z · LW · GW

I've just realized today (~5 days after posting) my footnotes did not transfer from the Google Docs draft. If you are returning to this post after previously reading it, you may want to take a brief look at the footnotes, as there are some potentially valuable resources linked in them.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-17T21:05:20.476Z · LW · GW

Thanks for sharing. NZ is probably one of the most attractive residencies, particularly from a derisking perspective. I'd love to secure residence there, but it seems to in most cases require living and working there (or millions of spare dollars).

FWIW, it did seem to me that entering Australia with a job offer and work visa was feasible when I looked into it ~5 months ago. NZ indeed was more locked down.

I haven't investigated to what extent permanent residency vs. citizenship vs. tourism subjects you to the local laws, but I expect when in-country there is typically little difference. Outside the country, my guess is you're only subject to the laws where you are, and where you're a citizen of, but I could be wrong. The marital property instance is an interesting one, since it's a bit less obvious that would apply to non-citizens.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-17T21:04:50.416Z · LW · GW

Thanks for linking those; I hadn't seen either of them.

I'm a bit familiar with Paraguay's program and should have included it. One likely reason it didn't come to mind is that the anecdata I've come across about Paraguay's has been pretty negative about it working in practice. That said, most, if not all, accounts I've read have been focused on permanent residency as a path to citizenship rather than permanent residency as an end in itself, and I'm unsure whether difficulties tend to arise in obtaining and maintaining the permanent residency or only in converting that to citizenship.

If the linked commenter is correct, to maintain Paraguay's you have to visit every 3 years while for Panama it is every 2 years, although in Panama you can go up to 5 years and then fill out a simple application for reinstatement.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-17T19:48:01.501Z · LW · GW
  1. This is great to note, thanks for pointing it out.
  2. I didn't know that it was impossible to renounce some citizenships. A Dutch government site says "Greek and Iranian nationals, for example, cannot give up their nationality: it is not legally possible. In Morocco giving up your nationality is not accepted in practice." Interesting.
  3. Do you happen to know about enforcement for this? I've read in multiple instances of some countries having a rule requiring renouncing a previous citizenship 'on the books', but in practice it never being enforced nor adhered to. On the same government site as above it also says,

    "Other nationalities no longer recorded in the personal records database

    Since 6 January 2014, second or multiple nationalities are no longer recorded in the Personal Records Database. If you have another nationality besides Dutch nationality, this will no longer be noted when you register."

    I'm not sure whether to take this quote as an indicator of a lack of enforcement or not.
Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-17T19:40:32.150Z · LW · GW

This is really interesting; thanks for sharing. I'd actually written above that I thought the limit was 90 days, so I was particularly incorrect there. Reading the freemovement link, it seems:

  1. The maximum permitted stay per visit is 180 days
  2. There is no maximum time per year someone can stay in the UK. In theory, you could leave on day 180, come back on day 181, and stay again in the UK so you've spent nearly every day of the year there.
  3. The main barrier to doing something like #2 is the immigration officer must assess that your entry of the UK is for a genuine, temporary, 'visit'. They likely will take into account how long you've been there in the past and how recency, as well as other factors, when deciding whether or not it is a 'visit'.

@Owain_Evans do you know of instances of people successfully spending more than 180 days in the UK without e.g. a work visa?

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation · 2021-02-16T23:12:29.233Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the Czechia info.

There's some legislative interest in Slovak Living Abroad becoming a citizenship (rather than permanent residency) program. Check out the FB group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1454484788071370

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on What should we do once infected with COVID-19? · 2020-03-20T20:38:10.971Z · LW · GW

Quoting Rob Wiblin:

"DO NOT TAKE IT OUTSIDE MEDICAL SUPERVISION: "Chloroquine is very dangerous in overdose.""

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=886113990345&set=a.509700885225&type=3&theater

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-11T23:01:17.791Z · LW · GW

Take someone in the U.S. who is heavily immunocompromised, such that their risk of death from any infection beyond a mild cold averages to 15%, and assume that their risk of death from coronavirus is 100%. Assume they've been employing social distancing tactics as a result for some time.

Is there available information or projections on whether the total risk for this person has increased or decreased as a result of coronavirus?

A key assumption/the reason it may have decreased is that we could expect that the prevalence of all other diseases is falling due to the social distancing tactics being employed for coronavirus.

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-11T22:52:31.771Z · LW · GW

It seems plausible to me that the copper tape approach many LWers have adopted is counter-productive in at least some cases. The logic for this is:

1. In the pictures I've seen, and with my own applications of copper tape, to the surfaces we seem to touch most often (e.g. doorknobs, light switches) applications of it have created a number of small creases, bumps, ridges, and/or folds.

2. Copper does not seem to have nearly as strong an effect on surfaces as does wiping them with disinfectant.

3. Wiping them with disinfectant seems likely to be a lot less effective on surfaces that aren't smooth (bumps, ridges, etc.) due to the difficulty in wiping all parts of the surface.

Thoughts?

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-03-01T07:45:06.323Z · LW · GW

Incentive sperometers are often used for the prevention of pneumonia. Maybe this suggests using those as well?

Comment by Josh Jacobson (joshjacobson) on Effective Altruism Summit 2014 · 2015-05-22T09:58:55.855Z · LW · GW

In 2015, the EA Summit has become EA Global, taking place in San Francisco, Oxford, and Melbourne. See eaglobal.org to apply by May 30!