Comment by Jules Le Tanneur (jules-le-tanneur) on Top YouTube channel Veritasium releases video on Sleeping Beauty Problem · 2023-02-12T11:54:39.155Z · LW · GW

Once you know Bayes, I really don't understand what rational argument there could be for any position other than "thirder", if the question is "given you're awake, what is the probability that the coin came up heads.

Comment by Jules Le Tanneur (jules-le-tanneur) on The Power to Judge Startup Ideas · 2019-09-04T19:15:46.146Z · LW · GW

Edit: this was actually more appropriate as a response to your previous post