Chaotic era: avoid or survive? 2021-02-22T01:34:41.317Z
Quadratic, not logarithmic 2021-02-08T03:42:34.781Z
Singularity&phase transition-2. A priori probability and ways to check. 2021-02-08T02:21:27.825Z
Can we model technological singularity as the phase transition? 2020-12-26T03:20:19.726Z


Comment by just-learning on Chaotic era: avoid or survive? · 2021-02-23T04:30:22.493Z · LW · GW

It sounds possible. However, before even the first people will get it, there should be some progress with animals, and right now there is nothing. So I would bet it is not going to happen in let's say next 5 years. (Well, unless we suddenly get a radical progress in creating a superAI that will do it for us, but this is the huge another question on its own). 
I would say, I wanted first to think about the very near future, without a huge technological breakthrough. Of course, the immortality and superAI are far more important than anything I mentioned in the original post. However, I think there is a non-negligible likelihood for something from the original post to happen very soon (maybe even this year), while the likelihood of the immortality before the end of this year seems quite negligible.