Wordtune review 2021-01-26T09:40:18.305Z
Tentative covid surface risk estimates 2021-01-25T09:40:46.658Z
Li’l pots 2021-01-24T12:40:42.259Z
Who should you expect to spend your life with? 2021-01-23T09:00:41.659Z
What if we all just stayed at home and didn’t get covid for two weeks? 2021-01-22T09:10:22.517Z
A few thought on the inner ring 2021-01-21T03:40:15.253Z
On fundamental solitude 2021-01-20T10:10:16.983Z
Public selves 2021-01-18T21:10:20.159Z
Are the consequences of groups usually highly contingent on their details? 2021-01-18T01:30:16.236Z
What is going on in the world? 2021-01-17T11:30:12.275Z
Meditative thinking 2021-01-16T02:30:17.953Z
San Francisco outing 2021-01-15T11:40:13.720Z
Discussion on the choice of concepts 2021-01-14T04:00:13.283Z
What’s good about haikus? 2021-01-13T08:10:15.311Z
A vastly faster vaccine rollout 2021-01-12T07:40:16.165Z
The time I got really into poker 2021-01-11T13:00:17.856Z
A different dictionary 2021-01-10T06:30:53.518Z
Why not? potato chips in a box edition 2021-01-08T20:10:16.882Z
Condition-directedness 2021-01-08T10:30:21.311Z
Evening drawing 2021-01-07T11:00:22.556Z
Centrally planned war 2021-01-06T10:40:11.794Z
Intended enjoyment 2021-01-05T10:20:21.608Z
Review: The Gioconda Smile 2021-01-04T07:00:17.962Z
On writing like a butterfly 2021-01-03T07:30:17.144Z
Review: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 2021-01-02T01:30:17.245Z
Mistakes to want 2021-01-01T04:10:14.279Z
Seeing the edge of the world 2020-12-31T03:40:15.928Z
Desires as film posters 2020-12-30T00:30:16.884Z
Measuring up to incredible potential 2020-12-29T07:50:17.583Z
Infinite possibilities 2020-12-28T10:10:16.027Z
An open Christmas card to my stepfather 2020-12-27T12:30:23.975Z
An open Christmas card to my brothers 2020-12-26T12:00:43.004Z
Open Christmas card to my father 2020-12-25T06:40:13.599Z
Open Christmas card to my mother 2020-12-24T07:00:19.081Z
Moral moralizing 2020-12-23T06:50:12.509Z
What is food like? 2020-12-22T12:30:17.591Z
Elephant seal 2020-12-21T12:00:20.357Z
Opposite attractions 2020-12-19T21:30:15.793Z
Theasauring 2020-12-19T08:20:13.000Z
Genetic magic 2020-12-18T05:20:13.171Z
Some things I’m looking forward to in 2021: probable post-pandemic edition 2020-12-17T08:20:14.424Z
What is it good for? But actually? 2020-12-16T09:20:08.255Z
The wild 2020-12-15T10:50:11.289Z
Blog plant 2020-12-14T11:30:07.984Z
Why quantitative methods are heartwarming 2020-12-12T21:50:08.259Z
The institution of email 2020-12-12T10:50:08.468Z
Flights of wonder 2020-12-11T10:50:11.063Z
Unexplored modes of language 2020-12-10T07:00:09.960Z
Walk to a San Francisco FedEx 2020-12-09T08:50:09.832Z
Why are delicious biscuits obscure? 2020-12-08T06:10:01.241Z


Comment by katjagrace on Li’l pots · 2021-01-26T04:23:49.337Z · LW · GW

Thanks. What kind of gloves do you suggest?

Comment by katjagrace on Blog plant · 2020-12-19T08:42:24.466Z · LW · GW

I actually know very little about my plants at present, so cannot help you.

Comment by katjagrace on Blog plant · 2020-12-19T08:41:35.690Z · LW · GW

It is irrigation actually, not moisture sensors. Or rather, I think it irrigates based on the level of moisture, using a combination of tiny tubes and clay spikes that I admittedly don't fully understand. (It seems to be much better at watering my plants than I am, even ignoring time costs!) I do have to fill up the water container sometimes.

Comment by katjagrace on What technologies could cause world GDP doubling times to be <8 years? · 2020-12-10T18:01:10.471Z · LW · GW

I meant: conditional on it growing faster, why expect this is attributable to a small number of technologies, given that when it accelerated previously it was not like that (if I understand)?

Comment by katjagrace on What technologies could cause world GDP doubling times to be <8 years? · 2020-12-10T17:14:59.915Z · LW · GW

If throughout most of history growth rates have been gradually increasing, I don't follow why you would expect one technology to cause it to grow much faster, if it goes back to accelerating.

Comment by katjagrace on Why are delicious biscuits obscure? · 2020-12-09T23:57:46.503Z · LW · GW

Thanks for contributing data! :D 

Comment by katjagrace on Why are delicious biscuits obscure? · 2020-12-09T23:52:56.262Z · LW · GW

They are meant to be chewy, not crumbly.

Comment by katjagrace on Why are delicious biscuits obscure? · 2020-12-09T23:52:06.302Z · LW · GW

Making them tastier, though not confident about this - originally motivated by not having normal flour, and then have done some of each, and thought the gluten free ones were better, but much randomness at play. 

I did mean 'white' by 'wheat'; sorry (I am a foreigner). I haven't tried anything other than the gluten free one mentioned and white wheat flour.

Comment by katjagrace on Automated intelligence is not AI · 2020-11-02T20:10:12.487Z · LW · GW

>Someone's cognitive labor went into making the rabbit mold, and everything from there on out is eliminating the need to repeat that labor, and to reduce the number of people who need to have that knowledge.

Yeah, that's the kind of thing I had in mind in the last paragraph.

Comment by katjagrace on My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room? · 2020-04-22T21:22:59.106Z · LW · GW

In such a case, you might get many of the benefits without the covid risks from driving to very close to the ER, then hanging out there and not going in and risking infection unless worse symptoms develop, but being able to act very fast if they do.

Comment by katjagrace on Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage · 2020-02-19T01:11:50.545Z · LW · GW

1) Even if it counts as a DSA, I claim that it is not very interesting in the context of AI. DSAs of something already almost as large as the world are commonplace. For instance, in the extreme, the world minus any particular person could take over the world if they wanted to. The concern with AI is that an initially tiny entity might take over the world.

2) My important point is rather that your '30 year' number is specific to the starting size of the thing, and not just a general number for getting a DSA. In particular, it does not apply to smaller things.

3) Agree income doesn't equal taking over, though in the modern world where much purchasing occurs, it is closer. Not clear to me that AI companies do better as a fraction of the world in terms of military power than they do in terms of spending.

Comment by katjagrace on Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage · 2020-02-18T06:56:45.040Z · LW · GW

The time it takes to get a DSA by growing bigger depends on how big you are to begin with. If I understand, you take your 30 years from considering the largest countries, which are not far from being the size of the world, and then use it when talking about AI projects that are much smaller (e.g. a billion dollars a year suggests about 1/100,000 of the world). If you start from a situation of an AI project being three doublings from taking over the world say, then most of the question of how it came to have a DSA seems to be the question of how it grew the other seventeen doublings. (Perhaps you are thinking of an initially large country growing fast via AI? Do we then have to imagine that all of the country's resources are going into AI?)

Comment by katjagrace on LW For External Comments? · 2019-12-08T08:12:57.215Z · LW · GW

This sounds great to me, and I think I would be likely to sign up for it if I could, but I haven't thought about it for more than a few minutes, am particularly unsure about the implications for culture, and am maybe too enthusiastic in general for things being 'well organized'.

Comment by katjagrace on Pieces of time · 2019-11-13T08:11:18.190Z · LW · GW

Oh yeah, I think I get something similar when my sleep schedule gets very out of whack, or for some reason when I moved into my new house in January, though it went back to normal with time. (Potentially relevant features there: bedroom didn't seem very separated from common areas, at first was sleeping on a pile of yoga mats instead of a bed, didn't get out much.)

Comment by katjagrace on jacobjacob's Shortform Feed · 2019-10-31T17:08:55.828Z · LW · GW

I think random objects might work in a similar way. e.g. if talking in a restaurant, you grab the ketchup bottle and the salt to represent your point. I've only experimented with this once, with ultimately quite an elaborate set of condiments, tableware and fries involved. It seemed to make things more memorable and followable, but I wasn't much inclined to do it more for some reason. Possibly at that scale it was a lot of effort beyond the conversation.

Things I see around me sometimes get involved in my thoughts in a way that seems related. For instance, if I'm thinking about the interactions of two orgs while I'm near some trees, two of the trees will come to represent the two orgs, and my thoughts about how they should interact will echo ways that the trees are interacting, without me intending this.

Comment by katjagrace on Realistic thought experiments · 2018-11-29T21:55:08.420Z · LW · GW

No, never heard of it, that I know of.

Comment by katjagrace on Berkeley: being other people · 2018-10-23T21:37:07.527Z · LW · GW

I'm pretty unsure how much variation in experience there is—'not much' seems plausible to me, but why do you find it so probable?

Comment by katjagrace on Moloch in whom I sit alone · 2018-10-05T21:04:43.713Z · LW · GW

I also thought that at first, and wanted to focus on why people join groups that are already large. But yeah, lack of very small groups to join would entirely explain that. Leaving a group signaling not liking the conversation seems like a big factor from my perspective, but I'd guess I'm unusually bothered by that.

Another random friction:

  • If you just sit alone, you don't get to choose the second person who joins you. I think a thing people often do rather than sitting alone is wander alone, and grab someone else also wandering, or have plausible deniability that they might be actually walking somewhere, if they want to avoid being grabbed. This means both parties get some choice.
Comment by katjagrace on Moloch in whom I sit alone · 2018-10-05T20:53:57.297Z · LW · GW

Aw, thanks. However I claim that this was a party with very high interesting people density, and that the most obvious difference between me and others was that I ever sat alone.

Comment by katjagrace on Epistemic Spot Check: The Dorito Effect (Mark Schatzker) · 2018-10-04T02:20:58.261Z · LW · GW

I share something like this experience (food desirability varies a lot based on unknown factors and something is desirable for maybe a week and then not desirable for months) but haven't checked carefully that it is about nutrient levels in particular. If you have, I'd be curious to hear more about how.

(My main alternative hypothesis regarding my own experience is that it is basically imaginary, so you might just have a better sense than me of which things are imaginary..)

Comment by katjagrace on Epistemic Spot Check: The Dorito Effect (Mark Schatzker) · 2018-10-04T02:09:23.538Z · LW · GW

A page number or something for the 'more seasoned' link might be useful. The document is very long and doesn't appear to contain 'season-'.

The 'blander' link doesn't look like it supports the claim much, though I am only looking at the abstract. It says that 'in many instances' there have been reductions in crop flavor, but even this appears to be background that the author is assuming, rather than a claim that the paper is about. If the rest of the paper does contain more evidence on this, could you quote it or something, since the paper is expensive to see?

Comment by katjagrace on Reframing misaligned AGI's: well-intentioned non-neurotypical assistants · 2018-04-18T04:54:36.832Z · LW · GW
I am somewhat hesitant to share simple intuition pumps about important topics, in case those intuition pumps are misleading.

This sounds wrong to me. Do you expect considering such things freely to be misleading on net? I expect some intuition pumps to be misleading, but for considering all of the intuitions that we can find about a situation to be better than avoiding them.

Comment by katjagrace on Will AI See Sudden Progress? · 2018-04-05T05:03:07.771Z · LW · GW

Thanks for your thoughts!

I don't quite follow you on the intelligence explosion issue. For instance, why does a strong argument against the intelligence explosion hypothesis need to show that a feedback loop is unlikely? Couldn't we believe that it is likely, but not likely to be very rapid for a while? For instance, there is probably a feedback loop in intelligence already, where humans with better thoughts and equipment are effectively smarter, and can then devise better thoughts and equipment. But this has been true for a while, and is a fairly slow process (at least for now, relative to our ability to deal with things).

Comment by katjagrace on Making yourself small · 2018-03-09T01:55:36.055Z · LW · GW

My example for high status/small was an esteemed teacher unexpectedly dropping in to see to see their student perform, and entering silently and at the last minute, then standing quietly at the back of the room by the door.

Comment by katjagrace on Person-moment affecting views · 2018-03-08T19:20:59.726Z · LW · GW

I also think they are probably wrong, but this kind of argument is a substantial part of why. So I want to see if they can be rescued from it, since that would affect their probability of being right from my perspective.

Do you think there are more compelling arguments that they are wrong, such that we need not consider ones like this? (Also just curious)

Comment by katjagrace on Multidimensional signaling · 2017-10-19T06:06:53.440Z · LW · GW

>Katja: do people infer that taste and wealth go together?

My weak guess is yes, but not sure.

Comment by katjagrace on Multidimensional signaling · 2017-10-19T06:03:56.315Z · LW · GW

I don't follow why you think this dynamic exists because wealth and taste are correlated. I think the dynamic I am describing is independent of that, and caused by it being very hard to find a signal of taste say that you cannot buy with other resources at least somewhat. If in fact taste was anticorrelated with wealth in terms of underlying characteristics, a wealthy person could still buy other people's tasteful guidance for instance.

Comment by katjagrace on There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence · 2017-10-17T22:42:45.893Z · LW · GW

Scott's understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In general, survey details can be found at

Comment by katjagrace on Gnostic Rationality · 2017-10-12T21:47:42.722Z · LW · GW

"It's not enough to know about the Way and how to walk it; you need gnosis of walking."

Could I have a less metaphorical example of what people need gnosis of for rationality? I'm imagining you are thinking of e.g. what it is like to carry out changing your mind in a real situation, or what it looks like to fit knowing why you believe things into your usual sequences of mental motions, but I'm not sure.

Comment by katjagrace on Gnostic Rationality · 2017-10-12T19:31:21.323Z · LW · GW

So a gnostically rational person with low epistemic rationality cannot figure things out by reasoning, yet experiences being rational nonetheless? Could you say more about what you mean by 'rational' here? Is it something like frequently having good judgment?

Comment by katjagrace on For signaling? (Part I) · 2017-09-28T20:17:20.560Z · LW · GW

I wasn't thinking of one of them as the opponent really, but it is inspired by an amalgam of all the casual conversation about signaling I have ever had. For some reason I feel like there is sort of a canonical platonic conversation about signaling, and all of the real conversations are short extracts from it. So I started out tried to write it down. It doesn't seem very canonical in the end, but I figured it might be interesting anyway.

Comment by katjagrace on Impression track records · 2017-09-24T11:53:19.984Z · LW · GW

In my terminology, 'impression' is your own sense of what seems true before taking into account other people's views (unless another person's view actually changes your own sense) and 'belief' is what you would actually bet on, given that you are not vastly more reliable than everyone with different impressions.

For example, perhaps my friend is starting a project, and based on talking to her about it a bit I feel like it is stupid and will never work. But several other friends who work on similar projects are really excited about it. So I might decide that it is probably going to be successful after all, though it doesn't look exciting to me. Then my impression of the project was that it was unpromising, but my belief is that it is promising.

Comment by katjagrace on I Want To Live In A Baugruppe · 2017-03-17T09:39:01.889Z · LW · GW

Interested in things like this, presently have a partial version that is good.

Comment by katjagrace on I Want To Live In A Baugruppe · 2017-03-17T09:37:11.113Z · LW · GW

In my experience this has been less of a problem than you might expect: our landlord likes us because we are reasonable and friendly and only destroy parts of the house when we want to make renovations with our own money and so on. So they would prefer more of us to many other candidates. And since we would also prefer they have more of us, we can make sure our landlord and more of us are in contact.

Comment by katjagrace on I Want To Live In A Baugruppe · 2017-03-17T09:30:57.913Z · LW · GW

I and friends have, but pretty newly; there are currently two houses two doors apart, and more friends in the process of moving into a third three doors down. I have found this good so far, and expect to continue to for now, though i agree it might be unstable long term. As an aside, there is something nice about being able to wander down the street and visit one's neighbors, that all living in one house doesn't capture.

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:35:52.581Z · LW · GW

Bostrom quotes a colleague saying that a Fields medal indicates two things: that the recipient was capable of accomplishing something important, and that he didn't. Should potential Fields medalists move into AI safety research?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:32:26.596Z · LW · GW

The claim on p257 that we should try to do things that are robustly positive seems contrary to usual consequentialist views, unless this is just a heuristic for maximizing value.

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:31:31.292Z · LW · GW

Does anyone know of a good short summary of the case for caring about AI risk?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:30:46.231Z · LW · GW

Did you disagree with anything in this chapter?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:29:27.856Z · LW · GW

Are there things that someone should maybe be doing about AI risk that haven't been mentioned yet?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:28:45.453Z · LW · GW

Are you concerned about AI risk? Do you do anything about it?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:27:58.991Z · LW · GW

Do you agree with Bostrom that humanity should defer non-urgent scientific questions, and work on time-sensitive issues such as AI safety?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:26:38.362Z · LW · GW

Did Superintelligence change your mind on anything?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 29: Crunch time · 2015-03-31T04:25:56.678Z · LW · GW

This is the last Superintelligence Reading Group. What did you think of it?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-30T19:13:57.078Z · LW · GW

Does anyone have suggested instances of this? I actually don't know of many.

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-24T03:11:57.532Z · LW · GW

What did you find most interesting in this week's reading?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-24T03:11:42.399Z · LW · GW

Is AI more likely than other technologies to produce an race dynamic?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-24T03:10:53.963Z · LW · GW

What do you think of Miles' views?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-24T03:10:23.428Z · LW · GW

What do you think of the 'Common Good Principle'?

Comment by katjagrace on Superintelligence 28: Collaboration · 2015-03-24T03:09:57.409Z · LW · GW

Do you think the model Bostrom presents of the race dynamic captures basically what will happen if there are not big efforts to coordinate?