Río Grande: judgment calls
2019-01-27T03:50:01.102Z · score: 28 (10 votes)Bay Area: reading, writing, moving, celebrating
2018-12-26T03:40:00.722Z · score: 10 (11 votes)Worth keeping
2018-12-07T04:50:01.210Z · score: 57 (26 votes)No, never heard of it, that I know of.
Bodega Bay: workshop
2018-11-27T03:20:01.290Z · score: 42 (12 votes)I'm pretty unsure how much variation in experience there is—'not much' seems plausible to me, but why do you find it so probable?
Berkeley: being other people
2018-10-21T02:50:01.408Z · score: 19 (10 votes)Bay Area: vibes
2018-10-11T19:00:18.694Z · score: 43 (17 votes)I also thought that at first, and wanted to focus on why people join groups that are already large. But yeah, lack of very small groups to join would entirely explain that. Leaving a group signaling not liking the conversation seems like a big factor from my perspective, but I'd guess I'm unusually bothered by that.
Another random friction:
- If you just sit alone, you don't get to choose the second person who joins you. I think a thing people often do rather than sitting alone is wander alone, and grab someone else also wandering, or have plausible deniability that they might be actually walking somewhere, if they want to avoid being grabbed. This means both parties get some choice.
Aw, thanks. However I claim that this was a party with very high interesting people density, and that the most obvious difference between me and others was that I ever sat alone.
I share something like this experience (food desirability varies a lot based on unknown factors and something is desirable for maybe a week and then not desirable for months) but haven't checked carefully that it is about nutrient levels in particular. If you have, I'd be curious to hear more about how.
(My main alternative hypothesis regarding my own experience is that it is basically imaginary, so you might just have a better sense than me of which things are imaginary..)
A page number or something for the 'more seasoned' link might be useful. The document is very long and doesn't appear to contain 'season-'.
The 'blander' link doesn't look like it supports the claim much, though I am only looking at the abstract. It says that 'in many instances' there have been reductions in crop flavor, but even this appears to be background that the author is assuming, rather than a claim that the paper is about. If the rest of the paper does contain more evidence on this, could you quote it or something, since the paper is expensive to see?
Moloch in whom I sit alone
2018-10-03T23:40:00.636Z · score: 50 (23 votes)Are ethical asymmetries from property rights?
2018-07-02T03:00:00.567Z · score: 107 (50 votes)Personal relationships with goodness
2018-05-14T18:50:01.310Z · score: 69 (18 votes)I am somewhat hesitant to share simple intuition pumps about important topics, in case those intuition pumps are misleading.
This sounds wrong to me. Do you expect considering such things freely to be misleading on net? I expect some intuition pumps to be misleading, but for considering all of the intuitions that we can find about a situation to be better than avoiding them.
Thanks for your thoughts!
I don't quite follow you on the intelligence explosion issue. For instance, why does a strong argument against the intelligence explosion hypothesis need to show that a feedback loop is unlikely? Couldn't we believe that it is likely, but not likely to be very rapid for a while? For instance, there is probably a feedback loop in intelligence already, where humans with better thoughts and equipment are effectively smarter, and can then devise better thoughts and equipment. But this has been true for a while, and is a fairly slow process (at least for now, relative to our ability to deal with things).
Realistic thought experiments
2018-04-04T01:50:01.763Z · score: 69 (17 votes)The fundamental complementarity of consciousness and work
2018-03-28T01:20:00.563Z · score: 26 (7 votes)Strengthening the foundations under the Overton Window without moving it
2018-03-14T02:20:00.604Z · score: 36 (8 votes)My example for high status/small was an esteemed teacher unexpectedly dropping in to see to see their student perform, and entering silently and at the last minute, then standing quietly at the back of the room by the door.
I also think they are probably wrong, but this kind of argument is a substantial part of why. So I want to see if they can be rescued from it, since that would affect their probability of being right from my perspective.
Do you think there are more compelling arguments that they are wrong, such that we need not consider ones like this? (Also just curious)
Person-moment affecting views
2018-03-07T02:30:00.392Z · score: 42 (10 votes)Will AI See Sudden Progress?
2018-02-26T00:41:14.514Z · score: 55 (15 votes)Replacing expensive costly signals
2018-02-17T00:50:00.500Z · score: 60 (20 votes)The Principled Intelligence Hypothesis
2018-02-14T01:00:00.939Z · score: 62 (17 votes)Why everything might have taken so long
2018-01-01T01:00:00.441Z · score: 110 (45 votes)Why did everything take so long?
2017-12-29T01:00:00.324Z · score: 60 (19 votes)Rules of variety
2017-12-08T17:10:00.300Z · score: 64 (27 votes)>Katja: do people infer that taste and wealth go together?
My weak guess is yes, but not sure.
I don't follow why you think this dynamic exists because wealth and taste are correlated. I think the dynamic I am describing is independent of that, and caused by it being very hard to find a signal of taste say that you cannot buy with other resources at least somewhat. If in fact taste was anticorrelated with wealth in terms of underlying characteristics, a wealthy person could still buy other people's tasteful guidance for instance.
Scott's understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In general, survey details can be found at https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/)
Multidimensional signaling
2017-10-16T07:00:00.176Z · score: 50 (19 votes)"It's not enough to know about the Way and how to walk it; you need gnosis of walking."
Could I have a less metaphorical example of what people need gnosis of for rationality? I'm imagining you are thinking of e.g. what it is like to carry out changing your mind in a real situation, or what it looks like to fit knowing why you believe things into your usual sequences of mental motions, but I'm not sure.
So a gnostically rational person with low epistemic rationality cannot figure things out by reasoning, yet experiences being rational nonetheless? Could you say more about what you mean by 'rational' here? Is it something like frequently having good judgment?
Signal seeding
2017-10-12T07:00:00.245Z · score: 30 (8 votes)Prosocial manipulation
2017-10-01T05:30:00.210Z · score: 15 (5 votes)I wasn't thinking of one of them as the opponent really, but it is inspired by an amalgam of all the casual conversation about signaling I have ever had. For some reason I feel like there is sort of a canonical platonic conversation about signaling, and all of the real conversations are short extracts from it. So I started out tried to write it down. It doesn't seem very canonical in the end, but I figured it might be interesting anyway.
For signaling? (Part I)
2017-09-28T07:00:00.605Z · score: 14 (9 votes)In my terminology, 'impression' is your own sense of what seems true before taking into account other people's views (unless another person's view actually changes your own sense) and 'belief' is what you would actually bet on, given that you are not vastly more reliable than everyone with different impressions.
For example, perhaps my friend is starting a project, and based on talking to her about it a bit I feel like it is stupid and will never work. But several other friends who work on similar projects are really excited about it. So I might decide that it is probably going to be successful after all, though it doesn't look exciting to me. Then my impression of the project was that it was unpromising, but my belief is that it is promising.
Impression track records
2017-09-24T04:40:00.131Z · score: 14 (7 votes)Interested in things like this, presently have a partial version that is good.
In my experience this has been less of a problem than you might expect: our landlord likes us because we are reasonable and friendly and only destroy parts of the house when we want to make renovations with our own money and so on. So they would prefer more of us to many other candidates. And since we would also prefer they have more of us, we can make sure our landlord and more of us are in contact.
I and friends have, but pretty newly; there are currently two houses two doors apart, and more friends in the process of moving into a third three doors down. I have found this good so far, and expect to continue to for now, though i agree it might be unstable long term. As an aside, there is something nice about being able to wander down the street and visit one's neighbors, that all living in one house doesn't capture.
Bostrom quotes a colleague saying that a Fields medal indicates two things: that the recipient was capable of accomplishing something important, and that he didn't. Should potential Fields medalists move into AI safety research?
The claim on p257 that we should try to do things that are robustly positive seems contrary to usual consequentialist views, unless this is just a heuristic for maximizing value.
Does anyone know of a good short summary of the case for caring about AI risk?
Did you disagree with anything in this chapter?
Are there things that someone should maybe be doing about AI risk that haven't been mentioned yet?
Are you concerned about AI risk? Do you do anything about it?
Do you agree with Bostrom that humanity should defer non-urgent scientific questions, and work on time-sensitive issues such as AI safety?
Did Superintelligence change your mind on anything?
This is the last Superintelligence Reading Group. What did you think of it?
Superintelligence 29: Crunch time
2015-03-31T04:24:41.788Z · score: 8 (9 votes)Does anyone have suggested instances of this? I actually don't know of many.
What did you find most interesting in this week's reading?
Is AI more likely than other technologies to produce an race dynamic?
What do you think of Miles' views?
What do you think of the 'Common Good Principle'?
Do you think the model Bostrom presents of the race dynamic captures basically what will happen if there are not big efforts to coordinate?
If AI is likely to cause a 'race dynamic', do you think this could be averted by a plausible degree of effort?
Is there anything particular you would like to do by the end of this reading group, other than read and discuss the last chapter?
What did you find least persuasive in this week's reading?
Superintelligence 28: Collaboration
2015-03-24T01:29:21.415Z · score: 7 (8 votes)Do you have further interesting pointers to material relating to this week’s reading?
What did you find most interesting in this week's reading?
What did you find least persuasive in this week's reading?
Did you change your mind about anything as a result of this week's reading?
What do you think of Kenzi's views?
Do you think the future will be worse if brain emulations come first? Should we try to influence the ordering one way or the other?
Do you think hardware progress is bad for the world?
Superintelligence 27: Pathways and enablers
2015-03-17T01:00:51.539Z · score: 10 (11 votes)What was your favorite part of this section?
Do you think increased prosperity now is good for the long term?
How high do you think state risks are at the moment?
How plausible do you find the key points in this chapter? (see list above)
What do you think of Holden's view?