Comment by kostelny on Sapient Algorithms · 2023-07-17T19:54:48.064Z · LW · GW

I'm acutely aware of the cost the next day, but I consciously just pay it

what is this cost? Are you talking about late caffeine drinking disrupting your sleep?

Comment by kostelny on Even Odds · 2014-01-12T17:26:59.901Z · LW · GW

Assume p=0.5, q=0.8. Alice should bet d( (1-0.8)^2 - 0.5^2 ) = -0.21d. Am I missing something here?