Comment by Lucas L on GPT-4 Predictions · 2023-02-23T14:58:31.066Z · LW · GW

Futuur predicts a 32% chance that GPT-4 will be released by May 2023 and a ~74% chance that it will be released by the end of 2023 (probability generated in real money).

Comment by Lucas L on Create a prediction market in two minutes on Manifold Markets · 2023-02-16T15:19:31.056Z · LW · GW

You can use Futuur for real-money markets! Btw they are planning to have user-generated markets as well

Comment by Lucas L on Prediction Markets for Science · 2023-02-14T15:00:44.840Z · LW · GW

Futuur is a prediction market with play money and real money options (each option has a different probability of some event occurring). An interesting market launched was which option would be more accurate, and real money won even with fewer bettors.

 

I believe markets with play money are more likely to be biased as no money is involved, with less skin in the predictions.

Comment by Lucas L on Latent variable prediction markets mockup + designer request · 2023-01-09T20:41:23.967Z · LW · GW

Cool, prediction markets will be sources of information just like GPT Chat is today! If you want to find real-money markets, you can try Futuur as Manifold only operates with play-money.

 

Let me know if you have any feedback/suggestions for Futuur as well, we would love to know what you think of the platform!