Posts

Any real toeholds for making practical decisions regarding AI safety? 2024-09-29T12:03:08.084Z
How to hire somebody better than yourself 2024-08-28T08:12:53.450Z
Parasites (not a metaphor) 2024-08-08T20:07:13.593Z
aimless ace analyzes active amateur: a micro-aaaaalignment proposal 2024-07-21T12:37:39.925Z
New fast transformer inference ASIC — Sohu by Etched 2024-06-26T09:56:08.649Z
If you are also the worst at politics 2024-05-26T20:07:49.201Z
shortest goddamn bayes guide ever 2024-05-10T07:06:23.734Z
Is being a trans woman (or just low-T) +20 IQ? 2024-04-24T20:04:36.829Z
Speedrun ruiner research idea 2024-04-13T23:42:29.479Z
Upcoming unambiguously good tech possibilities? (Like eg indoor plumbing) 2024-04-11T23:14:06.355Z
Any evidence or reason to expect a multiverse / Everett branches? 2024-04-09T05:26:30.990Z
Best *organization* red-pill books and posts? 2024-03-20T07:01:16.536Z
Fixed point or oscillate or noise 2024-03-14T18:37:11.212Z
Let's build definitely-not-conscious AI 2024-03-06T07:50:01.880Z
What's this 3rd secret directive of evolution called? (survive & spread & ___) 2024-02-07T14:11:58.143Z
Wrong answer bias 2024-02-01T20:05:38.573Z
The economy is mostly newbs (strat predictions) 2024-02-01T19:15:49.420Z
What exactly did that great AI future involve again? 2024-01-28T10:10:21.270Z
Decent plan prize winner & highlights 2024-01-19T23:30:34.242Z
Decent plan prize announcement (1 paragraph, $1k) 2024-01-12T06:27:44.495Z
Go flash blinking lights at printed text right now 2023-11-05T07:29:44.630Z
Responsible scaling policy TLDR 2023-09-28T18:51:20.330Z
Series of absurd upgrades in nature's great search 2023-09-03T09:35:20.760Z
We can do better than DoWhatIMean (inextricably kind AI) 2023-08-19T05:41:47.046Z
Could fabs own AI? 2023-08-19T00:16:37.848Z
Could we breed/engineer intelligent parrots? 2023-08-02T07:32:17.686Z
When did you orient? 2023-06-19T07:22:27.968Z
Work dumber not smarter 2023-06-01T12:40:31.264Z
When should I close the fridge? 2023-05-17T16:56:35.629Z
Distinguishing misuse is difficult and uncomfortable 2023-05-01T16:23:17.040Z
More money with less risk: sell services instead of model access 2023-03-04T20:51:36.480Z
Planning capacity and daemons 2022-09-26T00:15:42.409Z
Inner alignment: what are we pointing at? 2022-09-18T11:09:58.661Z
AI-assisted list of ten concrete alignment things to do right now 2022-09-07T08:38:29.757Z
Do yourself a FAVAR: security mindset 2022-06-18T02:08:47.415Z
Against unstoppable crypto prediction markets 2021-02-25T06:02:23.102Z
lukehmiles's Shortform 2020-01-27T00:52:37.833Z
Creating Environments to Design and Test Embedded Agents 2019-08-23T03:17:33.265Z

Comments

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Representation Tuning · 2024-10-02T17:06:09.106Z · LW · GW

Wrong link? Looks like this is it https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06927

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Representation Tuning · 2024-09-29T17:14:51.764Z · LW · GW

Here is my understanding. Is this right?

 

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Representation Tuning · 2024-09-29T17:10:09.137Z · LW · GW

Incredible!! I am going to try this myself. I will let you know how it goes.

honesty vector tuning showed a real advantage over honesty token tuning, comparable to honesty vector steering at the best layer and multiplier:

Is this backwards? I'm having a bit of trouble following your terms. Seems like this post is terribly underrated -- maybe others also got confused? Basically, you only need 4 terms, yes?

* base model
* steered model
* activation-tuned model
* token cross-entropy trained model

I think I was reading half the plots backwards or something. Anyway I bet if you reposted with clearer terms/plots then you'd get some good followup work and a lot of general engagement.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-17T20:56:58.498Z · LW · GW

Hey!!! Thanks for replying. But did you or anyone you know consider chemical cisgenderization? Or any mention of such in the forums? I would it expect it to be a much stronger effect than eg joining the military. Although I hear it is common for men in the military to take steroids, so maybe there would be some samples there.... I imagine taking cis hormones is not an attractive idea, because if you dislike the result then you're worse off than you started.

(Oh and we were still together then. LK has child now, not sure how that affects the equation.)

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-16T20:36:07.661Z · LW · GW

Thank you! Seems like this bot works quite well for this task

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Building an Inexpensive, Aesthetic, Private Forum · 2024-09-10T17:46:32.833Z · LW · GW

I have used a number of discourse forums and they just feel bad/wrong but I cannot explain why. I would also vote for more of an old-fashioned php BB with a nice theme. Those are always great, even though all my intuitions tell me they seem like they should suck. Shows how little I know.

Eg https://github.com/phpbb/phpbb

Also has styles: https://www.phpbb.com/customise/db/styles/board_styles-12?sid=6245508b90fd3410be19888406fae215

Basically I'm repeating what Said said

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Amplify is hiring! Work with us to support field-building initiatives through digital marketing · 2024-09-10T17:39:41.460Z · LW · GW

If you have a clear metric to judge candidates on (eg engagement on a linkedin ad) then you might be able to do a super effective and quick performance-based hiring method. Shameless plug: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3AZkXwcCJZc5CAFQN/how-to-hire-somebody-better-than-yourself

Good luck!

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-10T17:30:24.948Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the cached explanation, this is similar to what I thought before a few days ago. But now I'm thinking that an older-but-still-youthful mouse would be better at avoiding predators and could be just as fertile, if mice were long lived. So the food & shelter might be "better spent" on them, in terms of total expected descendants. This would only leave the disease explanation, yes?

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-10T17:19:30.179Z · LW · GW

Where has the "rights of the living vs rights of the unborn" debate already been had? In the context of longevity. (Presuming that at some point an exponentially increasing population consumes its cubically increasing resources.)

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Is being a trans woman (or just low-T) +20 IQ? · 2024-09-08T05:02:43.444Z · LW · GW

Hey thanks much for sharing new info with me. What a nice comment to read. I was sure someone would come by and be pissed and mean as hell, but folks have been engaging in quite good faith.

but I'm more reserved

I think this might point at the central problem with my evidence. People vary in how publicly they live their lives by orders of magnitude. It could be that only 1% of math geniuses are trans women but they post / get views on Twitter 100x more. Or a similar thing in high school and the workplace. Math professors tend to live quiet lives...

Anyway, unfortunately I think this post might be kinda too toxic/hurtful for the average reader to be worthwhile overall (although nobody has mentioned that to me) and I'll probably move it to a pastebin or something.

I think the basic question (whether hormones are fucking or helping your brain long-term) is quite important and deserves a better treatment. I might try to do that eventually.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on What program structures enable efficient induction? · 2024-09-08T04:34:33.098Z · LW · GW

Any ideas?

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Perhaps Try a Little Therapy, As a Treat? · 2024-09-08T04:23:10.654Z · LW · GW
Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-05T15:59:54.817Z · LW · GW

They keywords are much appreciated. That second link is only from 2022! I wonder if anybody suggested this in like 1900. Edit: some of the citations are from very long ago

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-09-05T03:53:47.533Z · LW · GW

maybe you die young so you don't get your descendants sick

I've always wondered why evolution didn't select for longer lifespans more strongly. Like, surely a mouse that lives twice as long would have more kids and better knowledge of safe food sources. (And lead their descendants to the same food sources.) I have googled for an explanation a few times but not found one yet.

I thought of a potential explanation the other day. The older you get, the more pathogens you take on. (Especially if you're a mouse.) If you share a den with your grandkids then you might be killing them. Also, if several generations live together, then endemic pathogens stick with the clan much longer. This might eventually wipe out your clan if one of the viruses etc has a bad mutation.

If you die before your offspring even hatch then you might not pass them any pathogens. Especially if you swim a mile up a river that's dry 90% of the year. https://youtube.com/watch?v=63Xs3Hi-2OU This is very funny and 1 minute long.

Most birds leave the nest (yes?) so perhaps that's why there's so many long-lived birds.

Although IIRC, bats live a really long time and have a mountain of pathogens.

Anybody know if this explanation is fleshed out somewhere, or know a better explanation?

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Anthropic is being sued for copying books to train Claude · 2024-08-31T04:55:07.808Z · LW · GW

Not that it matters, but the new version sounds kind of like the author is making a big deal, and the old version sounds like normal press language, to me at least

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on How to hire somebody better than yourself · 2024-08-29T14:54:46.221Z · LW · GW

Yeah I guess that's another prereq. I think you can make up for it some by having good work for people to do. I would rather work on a cool or valuable thing with amateurs than something lame with pros.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Meta: On viewing the latest LW posts · 2024-08-29T06:55:47.511Z · LW · GW

This is great!! I've just been using it now, thanks to your pointer.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on One person's worth of mental energy for AI doom aversion jobs. What should I do? · 2024-08-29T06:54:51.916Z · LW · GW

I don't know if you're a woman, but the women I know have had much more success in politics than the men I know.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Day Zero Antivirals for Future Pandemics · 2024-08-29T06:43:05.578Z · LW · GW

Very valuable information! I have never heard of this artificial mucus stuff. Thank you for sharing.

Why do you want to go the FDA route? You think the gene therapy is the most promising?

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on On Interpters, Optimizing Compilers, and JIT · 2024-08-29T06:14:38.109Z · LW · GW

JITs are very underrated. Bad JavaScript code runs so much faster than bad C code. Sorry you got downvoted.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on How to hire somebody better than yourself · 2024-08-28T21:50:10.061Z · LW · GW

Excellent additions!

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-08-28T08:37:27.498Z · LW · GW

This is so much better than what claude was giving me

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-08-28T08:31:37.088Z · LW · GW

Thank you!

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-08-28T05:37:42.252Z · LW · GW

Is there a good like uh "intro to China" book or YouTube channel? Like something that teaches me (possibly indirectly) what things are valued, how people think and act, extremely basic history, how politics works, how factories get put up, etc etc. Could be about government, industry, the common person, or whatever.. I wish I could be asking for something more specific, but I honestly do not even know the basics.

All I've read is Shenzhen: A Travelogue from China which was quite good although very obsolete. Also it is a comic book.

I'm not much of a reader so I'm looking for something extremely basic.

I am asking humans instead of a chatbot because all the mainstream talk about China seems very wrong to me and I don't want to read something wrong

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on LessWrong email subscriptions? · 2024-08-28T03:51:13.013Z · LW · GW

My emails are just right.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-25T08:43:52.029Z · LW · GW

Thanks for reporting. Would be curious to know if still happening in a week

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on tailcalled's Shortform · 2024-08-12T16:07:19.086Z · LW · GW

What? Nobody told me. Where did you learn this

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-12T09:46:44.978Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure but people seem pretty sensitive about it for some reason. Maybe this is some very very old-fashioned stigma.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-11T14:31:15.031Z · LW · GW

Yeah albendazole might be better if you're not a baby or otherwise medically high-risk. I think it's probably good enough that you can give up on parasites being the root cause after trying it for a week. (Rather than being stuck on an endless journey of trying everything like the SIBO, candida, etc self-diagnoses.) The farm where I worked when my symptoms started was in Central Valley in California. The doctors I saw were at Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-11T14:15:14.143Z · LW · GW

Head felt kind of buzzy and weird for one day

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-09T19:39:07.307Z · LW · GW

We didn't get colonoscopies, but some worms are pretty hard to see in stool (hence the insensitivity of the tests), so I think they're extra hard to see in a completely empty colon. (Can't find hard data on this.)

As for the survival, these things spread from a couple eggs left in the dry dirt or wherever, so yeah unfortunately 1 day fast usually won't eliminate an infection I'm pretty sure.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Parasites (not a metaphor) · 2024-08-09T19:30:55.312Z · LW · GW

It never occurred to me that my problems might be due to worms. I took the dewormers because my butt was itchy one day.

But it should have occurred to me! My symptoms in 2019 started after I was working on this really dirty farm for a bit. Definitely had my face in the dirt plenty.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-08-05T17:30:23.405Z · LW · GW

What was the distillation idea from a year ago?

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-07-31T08:45:43.298Z · LW · GW

A tricky thing about feedback on LW (or maybe just human nature or webforum nature):

  • Post: Maybe there's a target out there let's all go look (50 points)
    • Comments: so inspiring! We should all go look!
  • Post: What "target" really means (100 points)
    • Comments: I feel much less confused, thank you
  • Post: I shot an arrow at the target (5 points)
    • Comments: bro you missed
  • Post: Target probably in the NW cavern in the SE canyon (1 point)
    • Comments: doubt it
  • Post: Targets and arrows - a fictional allegory (500 points)
    • Comments: I am totally Edd in this story
  • Post: I hit the target. Target is dead. I have the head. (40 points)
    • Comments: thanks. cool.

Basically, if you try to actually do a thing or be particularly specific/concrete then you are held to a much higher standard.

There are some counterexamples. And LW is better than lots of sites.

Nonetheless, I feel here like I have a warm welcome to talk bullshit around the water cooler but angry stares when I try to mortar a few bricks.

I feel like this is almost a good site for getting your hands dirty and getting feedback and such. Just a more positive culture towards actual shots on target would be sufficient I think. Not sure how that could be achieved.

Maybe this is like publication culture vs workshop culture or something.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Has Eliezer publicly and satisfactorily responded to attempted rebuttals of the analogy to evolution? · 2024-07-31T08:11:03.923Z · LW · GW

I think the tooling/scale is at a point where we can begin the search for "life" (eg viruses, boundaries that repair, etc) in weights during training. We should certainly expect to see such things if the NN is found via evolutionary algorithm. So we can look for similar structures in similar places with backprop+SGD. I expect this to go much like the search for life on mars. A negative result would still be good information IMO.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on tlevin's Shortform · 2024-07-31T07:49:21.798Z · LW · GW

Was one giant cluster last two times I was there. In the outside area. Not sure why the physical space arrangement wasn't working. I guess walking into a cubby feels risky/imposing, and leaving feels rude. I would have liked it to work.

I'm not sure how you could improve it. I was trying to think of something last time I was there. "Damn all these nice cubbies are empty." I could not think of anything.

Just my experience.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-07-31T07:41:16.731Z · LW · GW

It's hard to grasp just how good backprop is. Normally in science you estimate the effect of 1-3 variables on 1-3 outcomes. With backprop you can estimate the effect of a trillion variables on an outcome. You don't even need more samples! Around 100 is typical for both (n vs batch_size)

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Two LessWrong speed friending experiments · 2024-07-29T06:00:23.220Z · LW · GW

This is such a wonderful and kind thing to do!! If there were more people like you!

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on What is AI Safety’s line of retreat? · 2024-07-29T05:35:20.078Z · LW · GW

If it requires big datacenters then I think folks will hear about it and stop it. We're not the only country with a CIA. A datacenter can be destroyed without even killing any people (so less risk of retaliation). Let's hope it requires a big obvious datacenter.

Meanwhile, people were on track to invent new technology at increasing speed every year without the AI's help. Personally, I don't mind it taking 10x longer to reach the stars etc.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Has Eliezer publicly and satisfactorily responded to attempted rebuttals of the analogy to evolution? · 2024-07-29T05:20:25.312Z · LW · GW

Yeah you can kind of stop at "we are already doing natural selection." The devs give us random variation. The conferences and the market give us selection. The population is large, the mutation rate is high, the competition is fierce, and replicating costs $0.25 + 10 minutes.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Has Eliezer publicly and satisfactorily responded to attempted rebuttals of the analogy to evolution? · 2024-07-29T05:09:10.473Z · LW · GW

It would be interesting if someone discovered something like "junk DNA that just copies itself" within the weights during the backprop+SGD process. Would be some evidence that backprop's thumb is not so heavy a worm can't wiggle out. Right now I would bet against that happening within a normal neural net training on a dataset.

Note that RL exists and gives the neural net much more uh "creative room" to uh "decide how to exist". Because you just have to get enough score over time to survive, but any strategy is accepted. In other words, it is much less convergent.

Also in RL, glitching/hacking of the physics sim / game engine is what you expect to happen! Then you have to patch your sim and retrain.

Also, most of the ML systems we use every day involve multiple neural nets with different goals (eg the image generator and the NSFW detector), so something odd might happen in that interaction.

All this to say: The question "if I train one NN on a fixed dataset with backprop+SGD, could something unexpected pop out?" is quite interesting and still open in my opinion. But even if that always goes exactly as expected, it is certainly clear that RL, active learning, multi-NN ML systems, hyperparameter optimization (which is often an evolutionary algorithm), etc produces weird things with weird goals and strategies very often.

I think debate surrounds the 1-NN-1-dataset question because it is an interesting and natural and important question, the type of question a good scientist would ask. Probably only a small part of the bigger challenge to control the whole trained machine.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Llama Llama-3-405B? · 2024-07-26T04:45:38.063Z · LW · GW

It's unbelievable how similar/convergent the big LLMs are. Only a slight improvement with 100x compute?? People have much bigger differences with much less variation of the core inputs (eg number of neurons). I wonder what the best explanation is. I can think of a few mediocre explanations.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-07-20T19:45:51.148Z · LW · GW

I wonder how a workshop that teaches participants how to love easy victory and despise hard-fought battles could work

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and "Cope" · 2024-07-20T19:44:25.769Z · LW · GW

I love this post.

I think you forgot to mention an important prerequisite. It was reasonable to assume the prereq but still worth mentioning I think. You should be looking for the W, for the clear win. It's easy to just fart around and forget you were trying to make something happen. And in real life there are often bigger and clearer wins available than is immediately apparent. Often this takes much time and energy and creativity to see. Often the more important/urgent problem can be easier to solve. People tend to love tricky things and puzzles. It can be hard to learn to love easy victory. Pop the soccer-ball! Stab your opponent in the back while they sleep on Christmas night! Replace your sails with diesel motors! Solve your integral numerically! Use steel instead of wood! — This lesson of course well known here but it's hard to have a consuming conversation or intriguing post about it. I often forget this.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on AI #71: Farewell to Chevron · 2024-07-09T11:22:48.604Z · LW · GW

Your writing about how/when/why having all these AIs around goes wrong is exceptionally coherent and sensical and buyable IMO. Do you have much opportunity to preach outside the choir? Do you have late-night TV skills? I think you could have a much much larger platform. And actually get a substantial and correct message across. (Or were you doing lobbying.)

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on Habryka's Shortform Feed · 2024-07-09T11:01:53.725Z · LW · GW

"Unclear on this point" means what you think it means and is not a L I E for a spokesperson to say in my book. You got the W here already

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on How to get nerds fascinated about mysterious chronic illness research? · 2024-07-08T19:33:38.720Z · LW · GW

Yeah hurts the chances then. Could get something from an unwashed piece of fruit. I think the ones that do spread person-to-person do so via eggs that make your butt itch; the eggs get on the bedsheets then Bob eats an apple in the morning. I'm still like 50/50 on the parasite hypothesis

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on How to get nerds fascinated about mysterious chronic illness research? · 2024-07-08T19:28:57.285Z · LW · GW

Looked for sold online and broad-spectrum. Basically just google.com/search?q=broad+spectrum+dewormer+human . I ate the chocolate one myself. Idk why different parasites would be sensitive to different chemicals or anything. Didn't check user reports at all.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on lukehmiles's Shortform · 2024-07-01T18:03:32.598Z · LW · GW

I wonder how well a water cooled stovetop thermoelectric backup generator could work.

This is only 30W but air cooled https://www.tegmart.com/thermoelectric-generators/wood-stove-air-cooled-30w-teg

You could use a fish tank water pump to bring water to/from the sink. Just fill up a bowl of water with the faucet and stick the tube in it. Leave the faucet running. Put a filter on the bowl. Float switch to detect low water, run wire with the water tube

Normal natural gas generator like $5k-10k and you have to be homeowner

I think really wide kettle with coily bottom is super efficient at heat absorption. Doesn't have to be dishwasher safe obviously, unlike a pan.

Comment by lukehmiles (lcmgcd) on LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux · 2024-06-29T19:08:24.343Z · LW · GW

I guess the vague idea is in the water. Just never saw it stated so explicitly. Not a big deal.