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thanks for your comment!
I just realized I should have used the question feature instead; here it is: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAwx3ZTaX7muvfMrL/why-do-we-have-offices
thanks for your comment!
I just realized I should have used the question feature instead; here it is: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAwx3ZTaX7muvfMrL/why-do-we-have-offices
thanks for your comment!
I just realized I should have used the question feature instead; here it is: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAwx3ZTaX7muvfMrL/why-do-we-have-offices
Hypotheses:
- Social presence of other people working: https://www.focusmate.com/
- Accountability
- High bandwidth communication
- Meta communication (knowing who's available to talk to)
- Status quo bias
Personal Wiki
might be useful for people to have personal wiki where they take note instead of everyone taking notes in private Gdoc
status: to do / to integrate
EtA: moved to a question: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAwx3ZTaX7muvfMrL/why-do-we-have-offices
Why do we have offices?
They seem expensive, and not useful for jobs that can apparently be done remotely.
Hypotheses:
- Social presence of other people working: https://www.focusmate.com/
- Accountability
- High bandwidth communication
- Meta communication (knowing who's available to talk to)
- Status quo bias
status: to integrate
Alcor posted A message to our members about COVID-19:
Novel coronavirus and the associated COVID-19 pandemic is a top priority at Alcor. The health and safety of our valued Members, staff, and strategic partners is of paramount importance. With the announcement of travel bans and the World Health Organization (WHO) recently declaring COVID-19 as a pandemic, Alcor is taking this threat very seriously. Updates on COVID-19 outbreaks are evolving rapidly and we are actively tracking the situation.
Rest assured, should the need arise, it is Alcor’s policy that we will respond to COVID-19 cases and we will advocate with officials and healthcare providers so we can provide the highest quality cryopreservation for our Members / Patients. Out of an abundance of caution, Alcor has taken and is taking the following steps to prepare to support our valued Members:
- We proactively ordered medications, supplies and personal protective equipment for our standby, stabilization, and transport (SST) teams before inventory became unavailable. We are fully stocked and prepared to handle higher case volumes, if necessary.
- We are hosting planning calls with our strategic partners, Suspended Animation (SA) and International Cryomedicine Experts (ICE), to ensure SST professionals are prepared for case work.
- Alcor, SA, and ICE will coordinate SST to deliver the highest level of care to our Members / Patients that is possible with circumstances that exist.
- Alcor will enhance our Watchlist to include members that test positive for COVID-19 and we will collaborate with SST professionals for rapid deployment.
- Alcor Staff members will be allowed to work remotely for non-mission critical functions during this time to mitigate exposure to COVID-19 so they can be in optimal health when case(s) present. Additionally, Alcor will be suspending tours of our facility.
- Alcor has postponed a training event that was to be held in New York in April with numerous attendees and other events planned for later this year are carefully being reconsidered.
- Alcor and its partners are monitoring regulations for transport of human remains and human tissue infected with novel coronavirus. According to direct communication from the U.S. State Department, there are no new domestic restrictions for remains transport as of March 12. International cryonics patients will be maintained in dry ice if there are delays in obtaining importation permits, and/or converted to neuropreservation on an emergency basis if serious obstacles to importation of infected whole bodies are encountered.
Some of our Members have expressed interest in relocating, temporarily or permanently, to Scottsdale, AZ. Alcor does not have a specific recommendation regarding relocation because each Member has a unique set of circumstances. However, if a Member wishes to explore relocating closer to Alcor, we are happy to answer questions. International travel is not recommended for members residing in the U.S. due to the possibility of becoming seriously ill while abroad. The recommendations of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) should be followed for domestic travel.
You should contact your healthcare provider if you develop any symptoms of COVID-19, such as fever, cough, or shortness of breath not related to existing conditions. Your healthcare provider will be able to make a recommendation on if you should come to the office, emergency department, or stay home. If you do test positive for COVID-19, or are hospitalized for any reason, please notify Alcor immediately. Alcor recommends that our Members maintain good hygiene and monitor updates as directly posted by the CDC and WHO.
There might not be 3^^^3 moral beings in mindspace, and instantiating someone more than once might not create additional value. So there's probably something here to consider. I still would choose torture with my current model of the world, but I'm still confused about that point.
Update: Alcor has written to its members, and it seems pretty well prepared for the pandemics; see my comment on this
Part of it could be that the market is not informed about this, but maybe also part of it is that the market has a high-discount rate for very large upsides?
Maybe a billion dollars can buy more utilons than 50% of 3 billion dollars because of diminishing returns of money.
If it's utilons, then I think I'd want to play one more time for all natural numbers.
Other projects: http://covidprojects.org/
Moloch fighter
Be the type of person that when your feet touch the floor in the morning, Moloch says, "Aww shit, they're up."
See full poster here: https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09/posts/10158270159979579
I think the best counterargument I came against this line of reasoning turns around the fact that there might not be 3^^^3 moral beings in mindspace
Alas, I have but one upvote to give for my country...
Hi from the future! We can now give multiple votes ^_^
Generating a lot of value is not sufficient, it also needs to be able to capture that value through a monopoly. But AI is probably highly monopolistic in nature, so the conclusions still hold.
On November 30th, 2017, I told my investment company that I was 35% sure I would take out 35% of my investments to invest at Google and Baidu for that reason. I didn't end up doing that, putting more weight on something like the EMH (among a few other reasons). Although if I had really fully believed in the EMH, I would just have bought wide indexes. Anyway, now I've updated that under some circumstances, I should take the risk and go against the market with a part of my assets (I'm pretty surprised by the length it took for the market to drop). So I just checked my current portfolio. Since then my investment company has invested 20% of my assets in Alphabet, Microsoft, and Facebook; and also a bit of Amazon (Amazon hasn't been mentioned here; I assume they do less AI, but they do do some) (note: I can't share specifics of investment, but it's okay for me to share just that bit of information). So I already have a good amount in it. And they were evaluated as good by normal standards. I might buy some more Alphabet, and maybe Baidu(?), and maybe Uber(?), and maybe Tesla(?) when I get more money.
related keywords: real economy vs financial economy
meta: thanks for your comment; no expectation for you to read this comment; it doesn't even really respond to your comments, just some thoughts that came after reading it; see last paragraph for an answer to your question| quality: didn't spent much time formatting my thoughts
I use "moral trade" for non-egoist preferences. The latter is the trivial case that's the most prevalent; we trade resources because I care more about myself and you care more about yourself, and both want something personally out of the trade.
Two people that are only different in that one adopts Bentham's utilitarianism and the other adopts Mill's might want to trade. One value the existence of a human more than the existence of a pig. So one might trade their diet (become vegan) for a donation to poverty alleviation.
Two people could have the same values, but one think that there's a religious after life and the other not because they processed evidence differently. Someone could propose the following trade: the atheist will pray all their life (the reward massively overweights the cost from the theist person's perspective), and in exchange, the theist will sign up for cryonics (the reward massively overweights the cost from the atheist person's perspective). Hummmm, actually, writing out this example, it now seems to make sense to me to trade. Assuming both people are pure utilitarians (and no opportunity cost), they would both, in expectation, from their relative model of the world, gain a much larger reward than its cost. I guess this could also be called moral trade, but the different in expected value comes from different model of the worlds instead of different values.
So you never actually trade epistemologies or priors (as in, I reprogram my mind if you reprogram yours so that we have a more similar way of modelling the world), but you can trade acting as if. (Well, there are also cases were you would actually trade them, but only because it's morally beneficial to both parties.) It sounds trivial now, but yeah, epistemologies and priors are not necessarily intrinsically moving. I'm not sure what I had in mind exactly yesterday.
Ah, I think meant, let's assume I have Model 1 and you have Model 2. Model 1 evaluates Model 2 to be 50% wrong and vice versa, and both assume they themselves are 95% right. Let's assume that there's a third model that is 94% right according to both. If you do an average, it seems better. But it obviously doesn't mean it's optimal from any of the agent's perspective to accept this modification to their model.
epistemic status: a thought I just had
- the concept of 'moral trade' makes sense to me
- but I don't think there's such a thing as 'epistemic trade'
- although maybe agents can "trade" (in that same way) epistemologies and priors, but I don't think they can "trade" evidence
EtA: for those that are not familiar with the concept of moral trade, check out: https://concepts.effectivealtruism.org/concepts/moral-trade/
This made me wonder 'Can coronavirus spread through open eyes?' (https://www.quora.com/Can-coronavirus-spread-through-open-eyes) given I had heard it was spreading through the lungs, but I'm not actually sure about the eyes.
Thanks!
this seems to be the project: https://k-web.org/ with this graph being the beta version: https://webbrain.com/brainpage/brain/C6015FA0-82BF-F1FA-9D05-0EA9FD7F845E#-2751
You say you would "probably have a 30-60% chance of signing up". I assume that is the probability if you were to think about it more and research it more. Cryonics has been known as an option people procrastinate thinking about for a very long time (and from second-hand anecdotes, often until death). So if you're going to think about it at any time, you might as well think about it now. I'm unsure about the expected preservation quality in a pandemic scenario, but regardless, you might as well use the coronavirus as a motivator to think about it now. The coronavirus has a probability of about 0.2% of killing someone your age, which is about the same amount of risk of normal living for 4 years at your age.
I'm personally signed up for cryonics, but I don't necessarily think everyone my age should sign up for cryonics. I've helped multiple people decide whether to sign up, as well as going through the sign up process. I'm happy to help anyone on a donation-basis. You can email me at contact@matiroy.com.
Some people have really good arguments for why ideas shouldn't be shared right away, in which case we might not read about them for a while, so the answers here might be biased '^_^
Mine is probably much longer than it should. Although I also have some reasons not to share them right away such as needing them to have a good first impression.
I probably haven't shared most of them yet, so the delay is probably at least a few years currently.
trying to put this in my own words to remember it
so different axes for take-off dynamics include:
- time span: physical time, economic time, political time, AI time (development speed of front runners over others)
- shape of the take-off curve, ex.: exponential, S-curves, linear, etc.
- monopolistic effect: do front runners become less likely to be outcompeted as they grow? how many large players will there be? also: how will this change? ex.: it could be that AI doesn't have strong monopolistic effect until you reach a certain level
measurement to quantify:
- AI progress: GDP, decisive strategic advantage
- AI progress speed: time until AI having more power than the rest of humanity / time until solving the control problem
related:
- impact on forecasting capabilities
the fraction of global economic activity attributable to autonomous AI systems will rise
I thought a bit about this, but haven't figured it out: how can this be measured? if AI is commoditized, AI companies won't make a profit from it. AI researchers might make more money, but likely not more than however much it would cost to train more AI researchers (or something like that). maybe we can see which industries have their price reduced because of AI, and count this as a lower bound for the consumer surplus created by AI. what else?
I personally would rather an FAI be able to bring me back than preventing an UFAI from doing so
when we were more people at the Macroscope (https://macroscopehouse.com/), the last tool we were using was weighted reverse auctions: https://matiroy.com/writings/weighted-reverse-auction.html
Thanks for the clarifying question. It's the impersonal "you"; although I think specifically the personal "you" would be even more interesting. I updated the question.
Believing you're likely in a simulation
- data point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIt-w8BwvV4 (see description as well)
Various lifestyles: believing that polyamory can be an healthy relationship structure; believing practicing various kinks and sexual interests can be healthy
Thank you for your answer! I'd want you to expand on all points, but will be more reasonable and prioritize my curiosity; re 2: does it creates more failures than successes because a) more people start a startup as a result, thinking it will be easier than it is, b) harder to get profit because competition is more fierce, or c) other reasons?
For your information, the above two links were judged as wrong
@davidad, any updates on your work?
I have the impression that the more unified the world is, a) the less likely wars are, b) the easier it is to coordinate to solve global problems. It would also create more economic prosperity. But some forms of globalisation could also make our civilisation less robust. Anders Sandberg says the extent a feature is globalize should be proportional to the extent that feature's impact is global (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91FKgBURAV0).
awesome, thanks a lot! :)
@habryka, I don't see Intercom, but I'm still interested in having my username changed; thank you!
ah, right, the premise of my question might be wrong! do you think colonies is a more likely outcome? why? (will update the question's description)
Some variables I would be interested in seeing tracked include:
- the distribution on the number of people a person can communicate with (without translators; both fluently and at a basic level)
- how good and easy to use translators are getting (including audio<>text conversion)
- how much countries are legally merging (ex.: EU) or fragmenting (ex.: UK?), including level of desire to separate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_active_separatist_movements)
- how much art (music, books, movies) are consumed internationally vs locally
- how much other cultural elements are getting globally adopted (ex.: food, clothing)
- how much international products / services are getting consumed
- what fraction of people are multiracial, and multiracial to which extent on average
Epistemic status: arm chair thinking
I wonder if an Antarctic mass migration would lead to the UN working closer together to develop international laws, which would consequently increase international cooperation.
I'm not sure what cause you to like this framing and what it does to you psychologically, but personally it seems important to me to differentiate what's aligned with my preferences and what's fixable as 2 different concepts. I think having a single word for both "things that can be changed, but are okay as they are" and "things that can't be changed, but are not okay as they are" would render my cognition pretty confused, but maybe that's a cognitive hack to feel better or something.
by "that's fine", you mean "I learned helplessness", right? (just checking, because I'm not sure what it means to say that something terrible is fine)
I disagree, but haven't had time to write why yet:)
Maybe it would be a useful norm for people to have such a list of ideas; it would allow to move faster
Updated: 2019-12-10
2 of them:
- there's a lot of advantages to video-recording your life (I want to write much more about this, and only took time for a very brief overview so far https://matiroy.com/writings/Should-I-record-my-life.html)
- if MWI is true and today's cryonics is good enough, we can use quantum lottery to cryopreserve literally everyone for the cost of setting up a quantum lottery + some overhead (probably much less than 100k USD)
An FAQ about yourself that is? I like this idea. When someone asks me a question that seems like it could be of interests to others, I ask them to post on my subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Mati_Roy/ , but I think it's weird because it looks impersonal to some among other things.
Thanks for your answer
Thanks for sharing! If you want to, I would be curious to know how the last 2 points made you feel bad for not adopting earlier (if there's anything more specific than just the general point)
oops, I just saw that; thank you!
oh, I had missed that :o thanks for letting me know!
by the way, I often see you link information together, and make sure to follow-up on various things; I really appreciate that!