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A new one, as of 2020-10-16: HPRick and MoRty
What if Harry and Quirrell in "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality" had the personalities of Rick and Morty from "Rick & Morty"?
I didn't say extinction risk.
Existential risk – One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.
Woops, not sure how I missed that; I'll retract my comment
Representing existential risks. A lost opportunity to grab the Reachable Universe (edit: /expand through the cosmos). (at least, that's my interpretation)
The true patronus was discovered (possibly rediscovered) by Harry Potter, when he finally understood that Dementors represent Death incarnate. His empathetic desire to protect all of humanity from the pain of that loss allowed him to not just drive away the fear of Death, but to conquer Death itself. This caused his Patronus to evolve into its true form; his Patronus took on the shape of an androgynous human. In this form, the Patronus gains additional abilities, including the ability to destroy Dementors and block the "unblockable" curse, Avada Kedavra.
Was the Sun exactly above you? ^_^
maybe The Egg
maybe this could be transformed into a fable: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2013-06-02
yes, but it's a rather small consideration
The cryonics dewars are in buildings at the same temperature than any other businesses in Phoenix, or any other cryonics organizations in the world, pretty much. So liquid nitrogen doesn't evaporate faster than other cryonics organizations, and electricity cost to cool down the building are just as high as any businesses in Phoenix. Not a big concern.
The context of my comment is this LessWrong post.
The context of writing the Google Doc is just me that wanted to pitch Montreal to EAs in general.
if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn't change just based on learning that it hasn't happened before 2021
Pinned open threads about recurrent topics. Maybe linked to wikis, or just a selected few. I would like for example to read comments on social norms, but they are spread across many open threads and short form posts.
Related: Discussion topic: what features should Metaculus add?
0) basic features
a) username, login
b) probably other basic things I take for granted
1) oriented towards long content
a) exportable, ideally in an open source format
b) archivable, notably on the Wayback Machine
c) organizational infrastructure and commitment to keep the prediction platform up for the very long term
d) notifications for when a prediction is due (if I'm the one that has to resolve it) or notification for when a prediction is resolved
2) able to input predictions in various formats
a) notably distribution over time
3) able to share a page summarizing my predictions, ideally with the option to have a comment on each
a) categorizing predictions
4) Community features
a) moderators reviewing public questions
b) able to predict on all public questions
c) have a point system that allows never closing questions (unlike Metaculus)
d) able to comment on predictions, reply to comments, tag users, and adjust notifications
5) Advanced predictions
a) able to use the output of some predictions as input for other predictions
I was talking about MIRI moving to Montreal with all employees, not about remote work
'early death' seems redundant, but yes the other analysis I was referring to focuses on avoiding death, not personal flourishment. this includes: proximity to state of the art biostasis services, lifelogging-friendly laws, high paying opportunities / low cost of living & low taxes, good healthcare system, survivalist community, low murder rate, online grocery shopping, good air quality, etc.
I see what you are saying. But either MIRI won't decrease salary, in which case rent will be really cheap, or it will, in which case they'll have more AI safety progress per dollar (or so would the simple surface level analysis say)
nnnooo, for the real world
oh wow, nice!
Here are my notes for "Why (and why not) Montreal": https://bit.ly/AISMontreal Note that my notes are not directly about comparing to other cities. ex.: I'm not saying Montreal > Boston; I don't know
This is in terms of AI safety, I also have a more general one about best city for personal survival, but it's pretty drafty
I really liked the first episode! Great show, and a lot of content seemed directly inspired from the AI safety community! I'm impressed!
- mentions the risk that a nuclear bomb would have ignited the atmosphere
- mentions the unilateralist curse (but not by name)
- references to Musk, Hawking, and Gates concerned with AI safety
- explanation and illustration of an intelligence explosion
- explanation and (surprisingly realistic) illustration of escaping the box
- explain how the AI isn't malicious, we're just in the way (just like ants are to us)
- talks about how most people say that AI concerns "is just sci-fi" instead of engaging from first principles
- illustration of misalignment of a company's goals with human goals
"Hello, I'm NeXt". NeXt is not just zir name, ze's also the next entity, which will replacement humanity.
yeah that's a good point!
a counter point might be that having aggregated feedback on a small comment might be less interesting and make the interface more noisy
but I think overall I would like to have reacts on short post, and maybe on top-level comments or all comments too. maybe some reacts would be for all text, and some reacts would only be available for posts. I don't know; I'd need to think more about it or experiment:)
Good point!
from the FAQ:
We encourage people to vote such that upvote means “I want to see more of this” and downvote means “I want to see less of this.”
ex.: if you can see that X% of people understood your post, then it gives you an idea of how understandable it was
I predict much more people would say whether they understood the post if they could do so with a react rather than a comment
plus, compiling comments to have a broad overview takes a long time
yeah, I also think the first 2 wouldn't fit well here. maybe better if it was agree / disagree
I was thinking they would be buttons you can click at the bottom of a post rather than inserted in comment
Topic: Can we compute back the Universe to revive everyone?
Quality / epistemic status: I'm just noting this here for now. Language might be a bit obscure, and I don't have a super robust/formal understanding of this. Extremely speculative.
This is a reply to: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/itdggr/is_there_a_positive_counterpart_to_red_pill/g5g3y3a/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
The map can't be larger than the territory. So you need a larger territory to scan your region of interest: your scanner can't scan themselves. The region of interest is the future info-cone of the civilisation you want to compute back. Your reachable-cone is strictly less than a past info-cone. So it seems impossible to compute it back. Except:
a) If you prevent too much info from leaking in the broaded info cone (ex.: by cryopreserving a brain, the info stays in one place instead of chaotically spreading in the world).
b) If the Universe collapses on itself, then maybe the reachable-cone becomes the same size as the info-cone, and maybe at that point you can safety exit the sphere of interest with info leaking, but it seems unlikely; seems like a brain destroyed ten thousand years ago might now be spread over the whole world (ie. needing the whole world to be computed back; or at least, not being able to know which part you don't need to compute it back).
c) An alien civilisation outside the info-cone might be able to scan it entirely during a collapse of the universe.
d) Our simulators would be able to compute it backwards.
But actually, b) and c) might not work because the leaking also happens across Everett branches, so the info-cone has one more dimension which might never become reachable. In other words, our future would have multiple possible pasts. To truly compute it back, we would need to compute back from each Everett branch at the same time or something like that AFAIU.
Moving to the US, as they are the most likely to win the AI race.
thanks! ^____^
Thanks!
But your comment is indistinguishable from social engineering trying to make me play a game where the winning condition is to not play :) It's not you that I don't trust, it's your reference class :)
Also, I've bet 200 CAD : 250 CAD with a friend that ze would play a video game again before I would (months ago).
Those are just thoughts; I haven't thought a lot about it.
Possibly, some of those ways would only be available in some posts, depending on whether the poster selected them.
Some that seem valuable:
- if a post will change your actions
- your credence on a post's central claim / a binary value of whether you agree with it
- whether you updated / changed your mind from reading the post
- how well (or whether) you understood the post
I recently thought about this again because I wanted to know if people would change how they use the term "zero sum" after reading Zero sum is a misnomer.
I also like the suggestions from other people I've shared as other answers.
Shared here: What reacts do you to be able to give to posts? (emoticons, cognicons, and more)
“I have changed my mind, and now agree”
“I already believed that, for the same reason”
“I already believed that, for a different reason”
“I feel you”
Source and more info: Proof Of Logic
:+1: means “I want to see more messages like this”
:-1: means “I want to see less messages like this”
:plus: means “I agree with a position expressed here”
:minus: means “I disagree”
:same: means “it’s the same for me” and is used for impressions, subjective experiences and preferences, but without approval connotations
:delta: means “I have changed my mind/updated”
We also have 25 custom :fallacy_*: emoji for pointing out fallacies, and a few other custom emoji for other low-effort, low-noise signaling.
It all works quite well and after using it for a few months the idea of going back to simple upvotes/downvotes feels like a significant regression.
Source: berekuk's shortform
Source: Nikolaus Kriegeskorte
haha, true ^^
See the history of Karma changes (now the history disappears, and sometimes I miss it)
at one point I saw a clipper game pass where you were an AI maximizing paperclips; I didn't play it as I thought that was the goal, but turned out it was just a normal game, not a symbolic one (although I still haven't played)
I would find it really inspiring for us to be able to select a large group of people that don't press the button "just because it's our symbolic tradition" :)
actually, maybe I already changed my mind. see my reply to Ben's comment.
I also appreciate that you played along, so part of me also want to upvote your comment
hummmmm. ok maybe I agree. plus, maybe the more interesting function to optimize is who to select to hold a code rather than how to create proper incentives.
I disagree. Having a culture of retroactively rewarding and punishing people is an important precedent to set.
I'd say 58% my comment receives more downvotes:) But I stand by it -- until convinced otherwise with arguments, not points!:
I think if we instill this norm, it might create an incentive
EtA: I think I changed my mind; see comment below.
I suggest a penalty of 1000 karma points to Chris.
I suggest for Chris to reply to this comment to provide us a karma sink.
meta: I predict this comment to be downvoted.
A Hubble Brain: a brain taking all the resources present in a Hubble-Bubble-equivalent.
related: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrioshka_brain#Jupiter_brain
x-post: https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09/posts/10158917624064579
I have moral uncertainty, and am not sure how to act under moral uncertainty. But I put a high credence that I would take the EV of year-equivalent (the concept of actual-years probably breaks down when you're a Jupiter Brain). I also put some credence that finite lives are valueless.
admin note: romeostevensit has passed the Internet test, hence why you can read zir comment (just kidding XD)