LW · GW
Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp
(Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet
This (2015) post is an attempt to answer a similar question:
FAI Research Constraints and AGI Side Effects