Toby Ord’s ‘The Precipice’ is published! 2020-03-08T21:20:20.653Z

Comment by matthew.vandermerwe on Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk · 2020-10-01T09:26:41.845Z · LW · GW

Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!

My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.

Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)

My calculations are in this spreadsheet

Comment by matthew.vandermerwe on Project Proposal: Considerations for trading off capabilities and safety impacts of AI research · 2019-08-11T09:41:33.774Z · LW · GW

This (2015) post is an attempt to answer a similar question: FAI Research Constraints and AGI Side Effects