Posts

Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021 2022-01-10T19:35:40.815Z
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021 2021-12-02T21:44:29.506Z
Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations 2021-11-25T23:57:04.881Z
Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021. 2021-11-02T14:07:23.771Z
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021. 2021-10-01T17:06:38.771Z
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021 2021-09-01T17:01:23.170Z
US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments 2021-09-01T13:34:39.169Z
Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms. 2021-08-16T18:31:08.932Z
All Metaforecast COVID predictions 2021-08-16T18:30:36.851Z
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021 2021-08-01T17:00:07.550Z
Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021 2021-07-01T21:35:26.537Z
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021 2021-06-01T15:51:26.463Z
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021 2021-05-01T16:07:22.689Z
Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021 2021-04-01T17:12:09.499Z
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool 2021-03-07T19:03:35.920Z
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021 2021-03-01T21:51:27.758Z
Forecasting Prize Results 2021-02-19T19:07:09.420Z
Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021 2021-02-01T23:07:39.131Z
2020: Forecasting in Review. 2021-01-10T16:06:32.082Z
Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020 2021-01-01T16:07:39.015Z
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems) 2020-12-03T22:00:26.889Z
Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020 2020-12-01T17:00:58.898Z
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize 2020-11-15T21:12:39.009Z
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions. 2020-11-09T16:20:06.394Z
Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020. 2020-11-01T13:09:50.542Z
Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle 2020-10-23T18:55:30.860Z
A prior for technological discontinuities 2020-10-13T16:51:32.572Z
NunoSempere's Shortform 2020-10-13T16:40:05.972Z
AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services 2020-10-04T12:11:36.129Z
Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. 2020-10-01T11:00:54.354Z
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020. 2020-09-01T11:38:45.564Z
Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020. 2020-08-01T17:08:15.401Z
Forecasting Newsletter. June 2020. 2020-07-01T09:46:04.555Z
Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020. 2020-05-31T12:35:58.063Z
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020 2020-04-30T16:41:35.849Z
What are the relative speeds of AI capabilities and AI safety? 2020-04-24T18:21:58.528Z
Some examples of technology timelines 2020-03-27T18:13:19.834Z
[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – Models of impact and challenges 2019-12-19T15:50:33.412Z
[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration 2019-12-19T15:49:45.901Z
What do you do when you find out you have inconsistent probabilities? 2018-12-31T18:13:51.455Z
The hunt of the Iuventa 2018-03-10T20:12:13.342Z

Comments

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022 · 2022-01-17T21:55:30.490Z · LW · GW

By the time I am writing this, most of the juicy trades are fixed now. Still, I made the following trades:

Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by February 15, 2022?.
Had gone down to $0.05, where you recommended a $0.15. I bought it up to $0.08

Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?
It was at $0.59, and you recommended buying it to $0.70. The liquidity is deep, so buying a fair amount didn't really move the price.]

Also, the Which of these 4 countries (United States, France, Italy, Spain) will have the highest Covid-19 Case average per capita on March 1st? market still sums up to $1.09. And I would very much like that 9% in 1.5 months return. But the liquidity is low enough that selling 100 yes shares of each market only nets you $3. I'm also a bit wary of selection effects; the market has started favored France, and since it's otherwise close to your probabilities, I'm going to guess that you're wrong or only giving 35% to France (or, I'm not confident enough to guess that you're right to bet on it without doing much research.)

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021 · 2022-01-11T15:57:51.690Z · LW · GW

Maybe. I might refer some people there. But I don't think there is all that much awareness that applying there is a thing that can be done.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on What are sane reasons that Covid data is treated as reliable? · 2022-01-08T12:23:36.333Z · LW · GW

This paper on the PNAS might be of interest: Epidemic tracking and forecasting: Lessons learned from a tumultuous year, particularly the first section, "Deceptively Simple Data Labels Often Belie the Data’s True Meaning and Complexity", which might be academic-speak for "fuck this data".

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Open Thread - Jan 2022 [Vote Experiment!] · 2022-01-06T11:10:29.302Z · LW · GW

Woah.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein · 2021-12-31T18:19:52.876Z · LW · GW

If it gets enough interest, I'll make this post the first in a sequence about the push and pull between law enforcement and organized criminal conspiracies

Yes, please. 

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Yet More Modal Combat · 2021-12-19T19:58:21.687Z · LW · GW

Reminds me of https://intelligence.org/files/ProgramEquilibrium.pdf

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Beware using words off the probability distribution that generated them. · 2021-12-19T19:54:40.919Z · LW · GW

Things I liked about this post:

  • Makes a good point
  • "Its edge cases. Its all edge cases"
  • The probability of a covid leak is similar to my own

Things I didn't like:

  • atomicly precice -> atomically precise
Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism · 2021-12-11T17:30:21.972Z · LW · GW

Yep.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism · 2021-12-11T17:19:11.922Z · LW · GW

Thanks!

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism · 2021-12-10T16:26:46.893Z · LW · GW

You're probably right given that I didn't look all that much into it, changed.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism · 2021-12-10T10:26:29.250Z · LW · GW

At some point, I looked at the base rate for discontinuities in what I thought was a random enough sample of 50 technologies. You can get the actual csv here. The base rate for big discontinuities I get is just much higher than 5% that keeps being mentioned throughout the post.

Here are some of the discontinuities that I think can contribute more to this discussion: 
- One story on the printing press was that there was a hardware overhang from the Chinese having invented printing, but applying it to their much more difficult to print script. When applying similar methods to the Latin alphabet, printing suddenly became much more efficient. [note: probably wrong, see comment below]
- Examples of cheap physics hacks: The Bessemer process, activated sludge, de Laval nozzles, the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes.

To overcome small inconveniences, I'm copying the whole csv from that post here:

TechnologyIs there plausibly a discontinuitySize of the (plausible) discontinuity
History of aviationYes. With the Wright brothers, who were more analytical and capable than any before them.Big
History of ceramicsProbably not. 
History of cryptographyYes. Plausibly with the invention of the one-time pad.Medium
History of cyclingYes. With its invention. The dandy horse (immediate antecessor to the bicycle) was invented in a period where there were few horses, but it could in principle have been invented much earlier, and it enabled humans to go much faster.Small
History of filmProbably not. 
History of furnitureMaybe. Maybe with the invention of the chair. Maybe with the Industrial Revolution. Maybe in recent history with the invention of more and more comfy models of chairs (e.g., bean bags)Small
History of glass.Yes. In cheapness and speed with the industrial revolutionMedium
Nuclear historyYes. Both with the explosion of the first nuclear weapon, and with the explosion of the (more powerful) hydrogen bombBig
History of the petroleum industryYes. Petroleum had been used since ancient times, but it took off starting in ~1850Big
History of photographyProbably not. 
History of printingYes. With Gutenberg. Hardware overhang from having used printing for a more difficult problem: Chinese characters vs Latin alphabetBig
History of rail transportYes. With the introduction of iron, then (Bessemer process) steel over wood, and the introduction of steam engines over horses. Great expansion during the Industrial Revolution.Medium
History of roboticsMaybe. But the 18th-21st centuries saw more progress than the rest combined.Small
History of spaceflightYes. With the beginning of the space race.Big
History of water supply and sanitationYes. With the Industrial revolution and the push starting in the, say, 1850s to get sanitation in order (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Activated_sludge); the discovery/invention of activated sludge might also be another discontinuity. But I’d say it’s mostly the “let us, as a civilization, get our house in order” impulse that led to these inventions.Medium
History of rocketsYes. With Hale rockets, whose spinning made them more accurate. Then with de Laval nozzles (hypersonic rockets; went from 2% to 64% efficiency). Then plausibly with Germany’s V2 rocket (the German missile program cost levels comparable to the Manhattan project).Big
History of artificial lifeProbably not. 
History of calendarsProbably not. Maybe with the Khayyam calendar reform in 1079 in the Persian calendar, but it seems too precise to be true. “Because months were computed based on precise times of solar transit between zodiacal regions, seasonal drift never exceeded one day, and also there was no need for a leap year in the Jalali calendar. [...] However, the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.” 
History of candle makingYes. With industrialization: “The manufacture of candles became an industrialized mass market in the mid 19th century. In 1834, Joseph Morgan, a pewterer from Manchester, England, patented a machine that revolutionized candle making. It allowed for continuous production of molded candles by using a cylinder with a moveable piston to eject candles as they solidified. This more efficient mechanized production produced about 1,500 candles per hour, (according to his patent ". . with three men and five boys [the machine] will manufacture two tons of candle in twelve hours"). This allowed candles to become an easily affordable commodity for the masses”Small
History of chromatographyProbably not. Any of the new types could have been one, though. 
Chronology of bladed weaponsProbably not. Though the Spanish tercios were probably discontinuous as an organization method around it. 
History of condomsProbably not 
History of the diesel carYes. In terms of efficiency: the diesel engine’s point is much more efficient than the gasoline engine.Medium
History of hearing aidsProbably not 
History of aluminiumYes. With the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes in terms of cheapness.Big
History of automationMaybe. If so, with controllers in the 1900s, or with the switch to digital in the 1960s. Kiva systems, used by Amazon, also seems to be substantially better than the competition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_RoboticsMedium
History of radarYes. Development was extremely fast during the war.Big
History of radioYes. The first maybe discontinuity was with Marconi realizing the potential of electromagnetic waves for communication, and his superior commercialization. The second discontinuity was a discontinuity in price as vacuum tubes were replaced with transistors, making radios much more affordable.Big
History of sound recordingMaybe. There were different eras, and any of them could have had a discontinuity. For example, magnetic tape recordings were much better than previous technologiesSmall
History of submarinesYes. Drebbel's submarine "seemed beyond conventional expectations of what science was thought to have been capable of at the time." It also seems likely that development was sped up during major conflicts (American Civil War, WW1, WW2, Cold War)Small
History of televisionMaybe. Work on television was banned during WW2 and picked up faster afterwards. Perhaps with the super-Emitron in the 1930s (“The super-Emitron was between ten and fifteen times more sensitive than the original Emitron and iconoscope tubes and, in some cases, this ratio was considerably greater”)Medium
History of the automobileYes. In speed of production with Ford. Afterwards maybe with the Japanese (i.e., Toyota)Big
History of the batteryMaybe. There have been many types of batteries throughout history, each with different tradeoffs. For example, higher voltage and more consistent current at the expense of greater fragility, like the Poggendorff cell. Or the Grove cell, which offered higher current and voltage, at the expense of being more expensive and giving off poisonous nitric oxide fumes. Or the lithium-ion cell, which seems to just have been better, gotten its inventor a Nobel Price, and shows a pretty big jump in terms of, say, voltage.Small
History of the telephoneProbably not. If so, maybe with the invention of the automatic switchboard. 
History of the transistorMaybe. Probably with the invention of the MOSFET; the first transistor which could be used to create integrated circuits, and which started Moore’s law.Big
History of the internal combustion engineProbably not. If so, jet engines. 
History of manufactured fuel gasesProbably not. 
History of perpetual motion machinesNo. 
History of the motorcycleProbably not. If there is, perhaps in price for the first Vespa in 1946 
History of multitrack recordingMaybe. It is possible that Les Paul’s experimenting was sufficiently radical to be a discontinuity.Small
History of nanotechnologyProbably not 
Oscilloscope historyProbably not. However, there were many advances in the last century, and any of them could have been one. 
History of paperMaybe. Maybe with Cai Lun at the beginning. Probably with the industrial revolution and the introduction of wood pulp w/r to cheapness.Small
History of polymerase chain reactionYes. Polymerase chain reaction *is* the discontinuity; a revolutionary new technology. It enabled many new other technologies, like DNA evidence in trials, HIV tests, analysis of ancient DNA, etc.Big
History of the portable gas stoveProbably not 
History of the roller coasterProbably not 
History of the steam engineMaybe. The Newcomen engine put together various disparate already existing elements to create something new. Watt’s various improvements also seem dramatic. Unclear abou the others.Medium
History of the telescopeMaybe. If so, maybe after the serendipitous invention/discovery of radio telescopySmall
History of timekeeping devicesMaybe. Plausibly with the industrial revolution in terms of cheapness, then with quartz clocks, then with atomic clocks in terms of precision.Medium
History of wind powerMaybe. If there is, maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Danish_development TvindcraftSmall
Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021 · 2021-12-03T12:34:11.510Z · LW · GW

Kalshi is only available to US people, so here are two instructions for Polymarket.

Method 1: Network of trust

1. Create an account on https://polymarket.com/

2. Find your Polymarket wallet address by clicking on your username on the top right corner -> Deposit -> P2P/Polygon -> Deposit.

3. Reach out to a more technically advanced user that uses Polymarket, and ask him to exchange $x outside of Polymarket for $x within Polymarket.  

  • For small amounts of money, and for the first few users, I'm willing to do this myself; you can send me a PM.
  • There are also a few users on LessWrong who might also be glad to volunteer to do this
  • If that fails, you can go to the peer to peer channel on Polymarket's Discord, and ask if anyone is willing to exchange money inside Polymarket for money outside Polymarket

3. Done.

Method 2: Read the docs

You can find Polymarket's documentation here.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on A Semitechnical Introductory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction · 2021-11-29T15:58:41.260Z · LW · GW

Except that unless that finite maximum is so tiny that Solomonoff does nothing useful, your truncated Solomonoff inductor is still too resource-hungry to do anything useful even if we turn the whole observable universe into computronium and let it run for the entire lifetime of that universe so far

Not the case!!! The OEIS can be viewed as an abridged Solomonoff inductor, and it is useful.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T14:14:30.486Z · LW · GW

Changed.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T11:15:35.278Z · LW · GW

[I see that I posted a draft version of this, rather than the final version, I updated the post.]

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T11:07:53.286Z · LW · GW

I had similar thoughts.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T11:05:15.383Z · LW · GW

I don't think that Latacora can do things that an internal Google service literally can't.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T11:04:32.296Z · LW · GW

I can imagine situations where having people "on call", and "on site" provide different levels of security, but you probably have more insight. I.e., DeepMind's ability to call on a Google security team after a breach after the fact doesn't provide that much security. 

I can imagine setups where Google's security people are already integrated into DeepMind, but I can also imagine setups where DeepMind has a few really top security people and that still doesn't provide a paranoid enough level of security.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Latacora might be of interest to some AI Safety organizations · 2021-11-26T00:13:39.061Z · LW · GW

Some more thoughts:

1. It might be the case that these organizations already have security procedures, but I'd expect these procedures to be somewhat ad-hoc, particularly for the more recently formed organizations. If they're not, I'll just be pleasantly surprised. Also, how to say, I could also imagine Latacora having more optimization power in the security dimension than, say, MIRI.

2. I imagine that explaining the security profile to them might be fun.

3. I can imagine that as Latacora has grown larger, their proportion of junior to senior people might have changed. It seems to me that AI Safety orgs would want to bid for the more senior people, rather than for the more recent hires.

4. I imagine that Latacora's job might be greatly facilitated by:

  • AI safety orgs not needing to appease by bureaucratic requirements (such as security certifications)
  • AI Safety orgs not literally expecting AGI this year, thus giving time to prepare (unlike bureaucratic requirements or business deadlines)

5. I also imagine that asking for a security team such as Latacora to be integrated into, e.g., DeepMind, is a nice specific ask which people with short timelines might want to push for.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on [AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century? · 2021-11-01T12:37:08.875Z · LW · GW

Will see, probably won't. 

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on [AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century? · 2021-10-08T18:26:34.651Z · LW · GW

(Updated https://ai-safety-papers.quantifieduncertainty.org/ from the updated spreadsheet.)

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-27T11:31:17.172Z · LW · GW

Oh wow, this is great.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-20T15:02:12.151Z · LW · GW

Ohh, this looks quite nice, thanks.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-20T14:59:03.062Z · LW · GW

What level and type of application do you need?

As powerful as possible? In particularly, I'm trying to solve an infinite-horizon optimal control problem with restrictions on what the inputs can be (e.g., not lower than zero), and the resulting equations are quite gnarly. The premium version of Wolfram Alpha couldn't really deal with them.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-11T12:30:18.499Z · LW · GW

Cheers, though zsh is conspicuously missing.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T22:34:34.805Z · LW · GW

Thanks, fixed

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T17:01:33.294Z · LW · GW

I'd appreciate it if someone touched on differential equation solvers

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T17:01:08.079Z · LW · GW

I'd appreciate it if someone touched on shells

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T17:00:39.362Z · LW · GW

Requests thread

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T17:00:19.220Z · LW · GW

Meta-recommendation: https://suckless.org/rocks/ for "quality software with a focus on simplicity, clarity, and frugality". Likely to be most useful to command line users.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T16:50:29.097Z · LW · GW

Software: Axios

Need: Making requests in javascript

Other libraries I've tried: fetch, isomorphic-fetch, request, maybe some others.

Why it's superior: It automatically parses outputs nicely (as opposed to be having to be fed to e.g., JSON.parse()), errors are ok. Overall much less of a hassle (though using "data" instead of "body" takes some getting used to). It of course has support for promises

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on The Best Software For Every Need · 2021-09-10T16:42:41.811Z · LW · GW

Software: z, lf

Need: Navigating in Linux

Other programs I've tried: Nautilus, ls/cd, convenience scripts and aliases on top of ls/cd, nnn

lf offers a better interface than nnn, and z is just significantly more convenient than anything else, though I'm still using aliases for the most visited files and locations.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on AI Safety Papers: An App for the TAI Safety Database · 2021-08-24T18:59:33.787Z · LW · GW

Incidentally, the code which parses your custom markdown syntax is here: https://github.com/QURIresearch/ai-safety-papers/blob/master/lib/getProps/processAlignmentNewsletterBlurb.js, in case you ever need to do something similar

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on AI Safety Papers: An App for the TAI Safety Database · 2021-08-24T18:56:25.412Z · LW · GW

Nice, thanks a lot! Also, the random examples at the beginning would be fairly easy to add.

Comment by Radamantis on [deleted post] 2021-08-13T11:05:27.212Z

I spent ten minutes trying to find this tag, it might be a good idea to give it an easier to find name, like "Tales of AI"

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021 · 2021-08-05T09:48:03.027Z · LW · GW

If you have to stake your USDC, isn't this still locking up USDC, the thing you were trying to avoid doing?

No, not really. In fact, staking USDC (i.e., lending it to other people, or providing liquidity between coins) seems decently profitable right now. As with everything, there are riskier and less risky ways to go about it, and for this prediction market setup, I'd choose one of the less risky ones.

So normally, when you make a bet in, say, Polymarket, the money which you stake is kept by a contract until the question is resolved. But it's not yielding anything, it's just sitting there. And making it yield in the meantime a) is more profitable, and b) solves a problem of not being able to bet on long-term things, because now you're resistant to inflation+you win more money as time passes. I think that previously, some individuals (Caplan?) used to bet US stocks instead of cash for that reason, but I can't find a reference.

So to answer your question, 

  • To bet in prediction markets you'd have to lock up USDC anyways for the duration of the bet
    • (Note that you can exit early by making the opposite bet and then merging shares; this would be the same in the new system. But the point is that between betting and exiting, the capital is just sitting there.)
  • Yes, this adds an additional layer of risk depending on the method used to generate yield, but I think this is worth it.

Also its maybe worth noting that the idea is not unique to Hedgehog markets/its been in the water supply for a while, it's just that Hedgehog markets might be the first to get to a working implementation. 

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021 · 2021-08-05T09:20:31.621Z · LW · GW

What gives the game tokens value?

Right now, nothing; they are not even on the main blockchain yet (they'll launch in a few months) Eventually, they could use USDC, or some other stablecoin, and those would have value.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Uncertainty can Defuse Logical Explosions · 2021-08-05T07:49:24.175Z · LW · GW

Nice!!

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021 · 2021-08-04T20:59:09.373Z · LW · GW

I thought that the How I Met Your Mother prediction was impressive.

I think that survivorship bias, or more generally the accuracy rate could be quantified, i.e., just get 100 random posts and check whether they were true. It'd be a nice mini-project.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Uncertainty can Defuse Logical Explosions · 2021-07-31T22:02:53.048Z · LW · GW

Can you give the probabilities that the agent assigns to B1 through D4 in the "sandboxed" counterfactual?

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Uncertainty can Defuse Logical Explosions · 2021-07-30T21:18:11.742Z · LW · GW

Should B2 be "$10 > $5 (probability 0.9999)?". If so, you find yourself in the situation where you have 0.99+ for two contradictory hypothesis, and it's not clear to me what the step "ignore the proportion of probability mass assigned to worlds where 1 and 2 are both true" actually looks like.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Working With Monsters · 2021-07-22T09:02:15.073Z · LW · GW

Nice meta-comment. But it doesn't really work; green was very well chosen so that any right person with a modicum of brains and heart immediately detects it as both wrong and morally repugnant. To such an extent that I found it broke my suspension of disbelief that half of the future society would believe in green.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Chess and cheap ways to check day to day variance in cognition · 2021-07-07T11:14:06.074Z · LW · GW

I've also observed something similar, at the decent-but-not-great club player level.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Chess and cheap ways to check day to day variance in cognition · 2021-07-07T11:13:16.319Z · LW · GW

This is easier to do by playing twenty 1-minute games.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing · 2021-07-05T11:06:24.123Z · LW · GW

Also, if you do make bets public by default (or, even better, make it the default option to give both an over/under bet), I'd love to scrap the website and add the implied probabilities to metaforecast.org

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021 · 2021-07-03T01:44:33.409Z · LW · GW

Thanks, added your suggestions.

***

Sure, might be ok early on. But you could require the question maker to provide a probability (and, at least I always predict on the questions I predict), or reward forecasting early directly. 

***

Did they make testable, or empirical, claims?

Actually yes, I have a list of 10 predictions here which I extracted from his blog, but I've been procrastinating on evaluating them.

***

Cheers.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing · 2021-07-03T01:31:59.373Z · LW · GW

would you want to browse all predictions, even ones by people you've never heard of?

Yes, all predictions. 

how do you know the randos you're betting against won't just run off with your money when you lose, and refuse to pay up when you win? Maybe you just trust the-sort-of-person-who-uses-this-site to be honorable?

I'd probably by default trust anyone with a LW karma of > [some threshold], or someone with a twitter account which is willing to confirm their identify, or in general someone who has written something I find insightful. If I'm feeling particularly paranoid, I might contact them outside your platform before making a bet, but I imagine that in most cases outside the first few ones, I probably wouldn't bother. I'd also expect to find out rather rapidly if people don't pay out. Also, from past experience using similar setups (handshake bets on the Polymarket Discord), people do care about the reputation of their anonymous aliases.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing · 2021-07-02T11:52:38.412Z · LW · GW

Neat idea. I would like for other people's predictions to be public by default, so that I can browse them and bet against the ones that I think are wrong (margin-call them, as if it were). Sadly this isn't possible with the current setup, because bet urls are randomized.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021 · 2021-06-03T15:18:09.293Z · LW · GW

No, this hasn't been solved. But I imagine that mixing logical quantifiers and probability statements would be less messy if one e.g., knows the causal graph of the events to which the statements refer. This is something that the original post didn't mention, but which I thought was interesting.

Comment by NunoSempere (Radamantis) on Is Ray Kurzweil's prediction accuracy still being tracked? · 2021-05-31T16:01:47.082Z · LW · GW

See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results.