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Comment by pums on Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People · 2011-10-10T20:10:41.673Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

"Things will continue historically as they have" is in some contexts hardly the worst thing you could assume, particularly when the alternative is relying on expert advice that a) is from people who historically have not had skill at predicting things and b) are making predictions reliant on complex ideas that you're in no position to personally evaluate.