Posts

What are good resources for gears models of joint health? 2021-06-06T17:39:50.303Z
The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening 2021-05-25T21:32:20.604Z
Will Martian G be enough to make healthy baseline babies? 2021-03-09T03:30:46.583Z
Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk? 2021-02-16T19:44:17.277Z
Have you tried hiIQpro.com's cognitive training or coaching? 2020-09-13T22:05:23.421Z

Comments

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? · 2021-06-14T20:27:51.594Z · LW · GW

because even just 1 drink of alcohol wipes out a large percent of your immune cells for hours or days, and then your hematopoietic cells rebuild them at the cost of telomere shorting

Say waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

It's a bit unclear from your context: are you asserting this for everyone or primarily for people who are abusing alcohol?

I do have to say, I've always been pretty confused by the inconclusive evidence that drinking may have some positive health effects. Maybe I just tolerate alcohol less than average, but I've often felt like I was just dosing myself with poison based on one or two drinks and how bleeeech I would generally feel the next morning. There have been a number of times when I've felt like this might be a bad hedonic cost/benefit trade off, but there are a number of beers whose taste I like enough that I haven't really been tempted to just set a blanket no-booze policy.

In your judgement, is a blanket no-booze policy worth considering? (I'm a pretty infrequent drinker currently: a heavy drinking week might see three or four units; most weeks are zero units.)

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated? · 2021-06-14T20:20:43.552Z · LW · GW

No, this was great, I totally dug it and I'm just a random bystander.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are good resources for gears models of joint health? · 2021-06-13T17:27:55.726Z · LW · GW

Can I clarify before I spend time writing a long answer - You are looking for a model that explains why you've now got pain in your foot (with a history of knee pain)?

Yup.

I'm also looking to better understand my PF pain.

Poor posture = Pain.

I'd say I'm somewhat confused about this model, based on a reasonable amount of reading. Paul Ingraham, Todd Hargrove and Greg Lehman all point at a lot of clinical evidence that postural and structual models of pain aren't very explanatory, which I think can be 80% pithy sumerized by "there are lots of cases where people have pain in tissues that appear healthy and no pain in tissues that show visible, gross lesions and other damage." I've been working a health coach for the past few months who seems smart and well meaning -- they recommended I make some (reasonably subtle) gait adjustments to help externally rotate the femur while walking. I was quite skeptical of this theory, but I've come across the cue before (ie, to try to emphasize the outer edge of the foot more than the inner), and I've been good-faith trying it to see what happens. I'm about 60% confident that this gait alteration may be involved in the ideopathic footpain -- I've had PF pain flairups before, but never ran into this foot tendon/ligament issue.

Thank you for the resources, I'll definitely spend time with those.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Cryonics signup guide #1: Overview · 2021-06-10T20:53:04.172Z · LW · GW

One of the obvious resurrection routes is via digitizing frozen brains. My intuitive sense is that we're more likely to get the imaging and virtualization tech before we get the detailed nano-tech that could repair all the cells.

and unless quantum physics change (and thereby the laws of the universe), the damage done with current cryo technology is too big to allow resurrection.

You have a QM based proof that cryonics can't work? I'm sure we'd all be very interested to see the details.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are some important insights you would give to a younger version of yourself? · 2021-06-09T20:55:52.542Z · LW · GW

[Keep] cutting your expenses and read about financial independence. Stop running at [bad] proxies for the thing you're interested in, and figure out how to run at the thing you're interested in. There's a voice in the back of your head that will always find something to complain about in every situation. [I now believe this is what Buddhism means by "unsatisfyingness"]. Sometimes the secret will be to recognize that the voice is constant and adjust your expectations accordingly. Other people are not there to entertain you, or fulfill you.

I likely could have saved two or more romantic and personal relationships if I'd be more accepting of the last two points.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Dangerous optimisation includes variance minimisation · 2021-06-09T14:46:02.296Z · LW · GW

Why do we believe that we have variables that nobody cares about?

Nobody believes this, however we don't have a way to express all the things we care about in math or code yet.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Cryonics signup guide #1: Overview · 2021-06-08T22:25:54.872Z · LW · GW

The reddit post is about a year old, but pretty upsetting. It alleges a lot of incompetence around the transportation of patients who have recently died.

Poking around the r/cryonics for a few minutes I wasn't able to find any follow up. I'm eagerly following the issue.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-07T18:34:37.860Z · LW · GW

Probably both.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-07T17:01:19.253Z · LW · GW

I was listening to Buterin on the Tim Ferriss podcast this morning, he made an offhand comment that biotech is at a similar point that computers were in the 50s; that left it salient with I read this, but in conversation and from general reading I have a sense that there's a good chance that a lot of progress is about to be unlocked in the field due to machine learning, much cheaper / higher throughput genetic sequencing and DNA/RNA/protein synthesis and much better DNA editing techniques due to CRISPR.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI · 2021-06-07T15:20:00.240Z · LW · GW

We should have a similar conversation [Question post?] for anticipating the consequences of transformative biotech.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are good resources for gears models of joint health? · 2021-06-07T15:00:43.166Z · LW · GW

It's similar to how Todd R. Hargrove is someone who gathered the knowledge he has primarily through feedback loops involves movement and is therefore more trustworthy when he says "I you do these movements, that happens" then when he speculates about what the involved neurons are doing.

Are you skeptical of the central nervous system sensitization pain mechanism?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are good resources for gears models of joint health? · 2021-06-07T00:14:58.458Z · LW · GW

Fascia Research Congress. A few Rolfers like Robert Schleip and Thomas Myers

I'll look into the Fascia Research Congress and these two!

Tense fascia leads to high muscle tone and that can then make individual body parts tense enough to hurt. When the problem travels between different parts of the body that's often what's happening

Does that suggest that trigger-point release, various forms of massage and something like Paul Ingraham's mobalization prescription are good starting places?

From that point it frequently also happens that you get inflammation in that body part which produces additional issues.

Any suggestions how to tell if you have inflammation and what to do if you do? Ingraham's Patella Femoral Syndrome tutorial is basically a book disquisition about low-level systemic inflammation in the knee cap, and his prescription is: lots and lots of gentle rest. He suggests the knee cap may be an unusual joint in that it it's under a lot of pressure even if just sitting still with a knee bent at 90 degrees, so recovery can be hard, but I'm guessing "lots of rest + standard PRICE treatment" is the typical prescription for other inflamed joints?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on A vote against spaced repetition · 2021-06-05T19:27:28.069Z · LW · GW

I would still consider spaced-repetition to memorize some of the more rarely-used notes on the treble and bass clef

I actually had this exact idea for learning the notes + saxophone fingerings for the treble clef. I was systematically going through Yamaha's interactive chart, making screen shots and slowly putting them into anki cards during boring, otherwise low-attention demanding meetings.

I never finished the job -- I just learned the notes and fingerings by directly practicing the saxophone. I think this is a bit of a parable of one of the challenges with flashcards: if you use the knowledge on the reg, you'll retain it. If you don't, you won't, but if you're not using it, why do you need it?

The intersection of stuff that's rarely needed by very high value to know off the top of the head, seems generally small.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Hypothesis: lab mice have more active transposons then wild mice · 2021-06-05T12:54:56.244Z · LW · GW

I hereby make the hypothesis that if we investigate the average amount of active transposons in laboratory mice and wild mice, we will find that the wild mice have less active transposons then the wild mice

Think the last pair should be "lab mice", no?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are your personal (public) Hamming questions? · 2021-06-01T16:30:55.271Z · LW · GW

Probably! Do you use calendarly or something similar? Which timezone are you in?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are your personal (public) Hamming questions? · 2021-05-31T03:33:33.174Z · LW · GW

For sure, that would be fun : )

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What are your personal (public) Hamming questions? · 2021-05-31T02:32:43.779Z · LW · GW

Hmm. I think I'm probably stuck in a fairly deepl local minima of good-wellbeing. It's not super obvious that any direction is easier to climb out of. I have a good, well paying software developer job that's not value-aligned; if things continue on projection for the next 2 - 10 years, at some point I'll cross a threshold where I have enough saved to make a serious attempt to pivot to value-aligned EA work for the remainder of my career. In the mean time, I feel quite scattered, trying to figure out what to do with my modest amounts of free time outside of work hours; for several months this year I was self-studying math to do capacity building; currently I'm trying to learn finance/investing.

When I try to choose between any of the plethora of options I could put time towards, they all just feel sort of "flat" and difficult to differentiate. I think this is also tied up with often finding it hard to be strategic when I settle down infront of my computer -- a sense of brain fog often settles in.

tl;dr: I think in some sense organization is my hamming problem

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T18:53:10.643Z · LW · GW

Aye, these are all reasonable points, but there will be corresponding advances on the US side in evading detection, adding confusion, and masking signals. I recommend the podcast episode, I listened to it this morning -- Bean's clearly evolved on this, but basically says, "I think it will come down to a cyber race to see who has better zero-days."

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T14:31:43.256Z · LW · GW

Ah, Bean is now somewhat less sure about the survivability of carriers against China, although important to note: genuinely unsure.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T14:20:08.399Z · LW · GW

Taiwan already conscripts all qualified males. It should be training them in guerrilla warfare. This is not happening. Taiwan should also have weapons caches and underground bunkers strewn all over the island. It doesn't.

That is quite interesting. I'd gathered a vague impression from Tyler Cowan talking to Audrey Tang and Taiwan's general bang-up handling of covid that the Taiwanese gov has decent capacity and competence. Any thoughts why they would leave these obvious ideas on the table?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T12:56:09.113Z · LW · GW

Hiding an aircraft carrier battle group on the open sea isn't possible.

Whoa. That's.. not true? Maybe in thirty years if radar + imaging gets dramatically better, but.. As bean says, it's a big ocean, and very easy to hide in inclement weather with drones and electronic counter-warfare and automated point-defence systems that are already very good and etc. The "carriers are doomed" still seems to be quite a controversial contention.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Don't feel bad about not knowing basic things · 2021-05-24T03:46:10.863Z · LW · GW

I feel deeply inadequate because I don't know how to scale a web system properly, despite doing web programming for eight years. I'm not even entirely sure what "systems design" actually is or isn't. 

I also recently fell badly on my face when given a basic algorithms problem. This was equal parts anxiety, being out of practice interviewing, and being out of practice with algo questions. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Love on Cartesian Planes · 2021-05-17T20:23:16.591Z · LW · GW

>Having been in this situation myself, even figuring out “what is forgiveness” can seem incredibly daunting. Should I just forget the painful memories inflicted? Is forgiveness just some words you say? My own answer to this was being able to remove the pain from those memories when I recalled them, part of this was by rebuilding trust by creating new positive shared experiences after the painful event

I think that for some people, past emotional events are much more salient and enduring for others. Personally, I think I might have a very high discount-factor-for-past-emotions, such that I get over things quite quickly. It's not that things aren't upsetting at the time they happen, but the affective charge drains quickly -- usually minutes to hours; anything longer is very very rare for me; where as I've had friends/acquaintances who've mentioned things that happened months or years ago with deep emotional upset. 

I think it's possible that my emotional-discount factor wasn't always this high. It's possible that this may be a result of mediation, or just a side effect of getting older.

What I am confident about is that doing loving-kindess meditation after an upsetting event, particularly if I incorporate the person who upset me, can be extremely effective at drawing out the affective charge from an event. 

Loving-kindess meditation is almost a scarily powerful technique for bumping mood up. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on How concerned are you about LW reputation management? · 2021-05-17T02:47:52.523Z · LW · GW

I wonder if making reputation multi-dimensional would help? 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on How concerned are you about LW reputation management? · 2021-05-17T02:20:07.160Z · LW · GW

Yeah, I absolutely feel like this. I also have a number of LW posts that are in a quarter-baked state. Every now and then I work on one of them a bit more. I have no idea when I'll feel comfortable posting any of them, because I want them to be well-received. 

The reputation system really encourages pruning

... with a little more reflection: I think this also subtly affects how I write on here. Little less playful, DEF fewer emojis. Tots don't wanna look basic in-front of the other rats. Tots don't wanna seem like I'm trying too hard. 

(Totally hoping I score big up votes with this first comment.)

(pant pant pant gasp wheeze !!) 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Thinking About Generators · 2021-05-16T21:01:52.562Z · LW · GW

Any options for folks who live in an apartment or condo? 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Bayeswatch 1: Jewish Space Laser · 2021-05-03T21:09:55.701Z · LW · GW

Did Eitan become a goyish Ethan midstory? Or are those two different characters?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Dark Matters · 2021-05-02T00:03:06.777Z · LW · GW

Sabine thinks it's both.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Ethics in Many Worlds · 2021-05-01T19:29:58.066Z · LW · GW

I use 'light cone' to point at 'something which cannot ever conceivably casually affect anything in our present or future'. I don't know if the light-cone concept generalizes to the Everett QM branches; if not, the substitute 'anything which is in principle unknowable'. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Ethics in Many Worlds · 2021-04-27T15:33:46.556Z · LW · GW

My naive reaction is that this feels entirely too galaxy brained by about . If you start getting extremely counterintuitive results by adding entities from outside your lightcone, stop adding entities outside your lightcone. They're unknowable. They're not morally relevant. 

I'm only 65% confident in this, and I haven't done a deep dive into infinite ethics, but I still haven't seen any argument for why things that can never be known are morally relevant. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on An Exercise in Rational Cooperation and Communication: Let's Play Hanabi · 2021-04-18T21:11:38.240Z · LW · GW

Fair point. @ejacob, please play more hanabai with this person and report abuse statistics : D

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on What weird beliefs do you have? · 2021-04-16T20:44:58.301Z · LW · GW

Amazing. This is the best thing I've read all week. How do I subscribe to your newsletter? When is the novelization coming out?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on An Exercise in Rational Cooperation and Communication: Let's Play Hanabi · 2021-04-14T22:05:03.428Z · LW · GW

Even if the meta-game is strictly (or just largely) cooperative, I think there could still be a dynamic where someone plays poorly or ambiguously, and then gets off on thinking that the other players were the ones in the wrong. It's a way to gain self-regard. 

Normally, I would think this is an unlikely strategy for someone to take, but if you see someone who's been shitting on other people for weeks, it does raise the question: what are you getting out of this?

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on An Exercise in Rational Cooperation and Communication: Let's Play Hanabi · 2021-04-14T21:40:03.501Z · LW · GW

I glanced at the player's recent activity: it contained two full pages of the player writing negative comments about people with whom he/she had played Hanabi, stretching back weeks. It struck me as impressive that one can consistently fail at communicating and yet insist that they are communicating correctly.

 

Or, alternatively, the game this person was actually playing was: I'm going to try and gain status and/or self-regard by denigrating others. Perhaps with a helping of: kek kek kek troll troll troll.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Jimrandomh's Shortform · 2021-04-14T19:03:43.419Z · LW · GW

Is your logic that releasing this heinous volun into the public is more likely to pressure FB to do something about this? Because if so, I'm not sure that LW is a forum with enough public spotlight to generate pressure. OTOH, I imagine some percentage of readers here aren't well-aligned but are looking for informational edge, in which case it's possible this does more harm than good?

I'm not super-confident in this model -- eg, it also seems entirely possible to me that lots of FB security engineers read the site and one or more will be shouting ZOMG! any moment over this.. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world · 2021-04-14T02:29:36.968Z · LW · GW

That's really cool. Thanks for the pointer!

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world · 2021-04-13T18:27:10.716Z · LW · GW

How do phages interact with the host immune system? My naive model is the immune system would regard them as an infection and start to suppress.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on The feeling of breaking an Overton window · 2021-04-09T01:02:52.605Z · LW · GW

“Honesty is reached through the doorway of grief and loss. Where we cannot go in our mind, our memory, or our body is where we cannot be straight with another, with the world, or with our self. The fear of loss, in one form or another, is the motivation behind all conscious and unconscious dishonesties: all of us are afraid of loss, in all its forms, all of us, at times, are haunted or overwhelmed by the possibility of a disappearance, and all of us therefore, are one short step away from dishonesty. Every human being dwells intimately close to a door of revelation they are afraid to pass through. Honesty lies in understanding our close and necessary relationship with not wanting to hear the truth.

“The ability to speak the truth is as much the ability to describe what it is like to stand in trepidation at this door, as it is to actually go through it and become that beautifully honest spiritual warrior, equal to all circumstances, we would like to become. Honesty is not the revealing of some foundational truth that gives us power over life or another or even the self, but a robust incarnation into the unknown unfolding vulnerability of existence, where we acknowledge how powerless we feel, how little we actually know, how afraid we are of not knowing and how astonished we are for the generous measure of loss that is conferred upon even the most average life.

“Honesty is grounded in humility and indeed in humiliation, and in admitting exactly where we are powerless. Honesty is not found in revealing the truth, but in understanding how deeply afraid of it we are. To become honest is in effect to become fully and robustly incarnated into powerlessness. Honesty allows us to live without not knowing. We do not know the full story, we do not know where we are in the story; we do not know who is at fault or who will carry the blame in the end. Honesty is not a weapon to keep loss and heartbreak at bay, honesty is the outer diagnostic of our ability to come to ground in reality, the hardest attainable ground of all, the place where we actually dwell, the living, breathing frontier where there is no realistic choice between gain or loss.”

- David Whyte, from a recent episode of Harris' Making Sense podcast. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on The Price Of Space Is Friendship · 2021-03-28T22:04:53.569Z · LW · GW

This is air launch -- using a balloon is just one variant. All of the schemes I've seen seem to have fairly small payloads, I assume the trade-offs don't work well above some threshold. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Jimrandomh's Shortform · 2021-03-17T21:45:52.185Z · LW · GW

The most recent episode of the 80k podcast had Andy Weber on it. He was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense, "responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction".

Towards the end of the episode he casually drops quite the bomb

Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acquired infection that spread perhaps unwittingly into the community in Wuhan is about a 50% possibility... And we know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was doing exactly this type of research [gain of function research].  Some of it — which was funded by the NIH for the United States — on bat Coronaviruses. So it is possible that in doing this research, one of the workers at that laboratory got sick and went home. And now that we know about asymptomatic spread, perhaps they didn’t even have symptoms and spread it to a neighbor or a storekeeper. So while it seemed an unlikely hypothesis a year ago, over time, more and more evidence leaning in that direction has come out. And it’s wrong to dismiss that as kind of a baseless conspiracy theory. I mean, very, very serious scientists like David Relman from Stanford think we need to take the possibility of a laboratory accident seriously.

The included link is to a statement from the US Embassy in Georgia, which to me seems surprisingly blunt, calling out the CCP for obfuscation, and documenting events at the WIV, going so far as to speculate that they were doing bio-weapons research there.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots · 2021-03-15T17:17:00.465Z · LW · GW

A couple of days ago I came across this deposition to the "German Corona Extra-Parliamentary Inquiry Committee", by Dr. Vanessa Schmidt-Kruger, who describes herself as "a cell biologist and my specialist field is the functional characterisation and elucidation of proteins".

She enumerates a range of concerns with the BioNTech vaccine, including purity; toxicity of lipid nanoparticles; dosing and long-term immune effects. There is an almost throw-away comment in there to the effect of: "...it has also been found that when the LNPs are transported in the blood then thromboses can occur, or haemolysis – haemolysis means the sudden dissolution of erythrocytes, i.e. red blood cells, this causes hypoxia."

I'm not in a position to evaluate any of this -- the deposition is quite long, and technical (altho note that the second half of the doc is just the German version). The presentation.. somewhat twinges my "this might be crackpot" aesethetic sense (as per naming-the-nameless), but I can't dismiss it out of hand based on that.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Dark Matters · 2021-03-15T15:46:18.801Z · LW · GW

O! So excited to see this -- I haven't had a chance to more than quickly skim, but will dig in after work tonight. But: what about recent detection of an external field effect??? Chae et al recently found "the EFE is individually detected at 8σ to 11σ [!!] in“golden” galaxies subjected to exceptionally strong external fields, while it is not detected in exceptionally isolated galaxies..." 

It seems clear from multiple lines that there IS dark matter, but this also seems like strong evidence for MOND?? DO WE HAVE BOTH???? 

Their sample size isn't huge, and they call for more work to increase the confidence: "the EFE is statistically detected at more than 4σ from a blind test of 153 SPARC rotating galaxies, giving a mean value of the external field consistent with an independent estimate from the galaxies’ environments, and we detect a systematic downward trend in the weak gravity part of the radial acceleration relation at the right acceleration predicted by the EFE of the MOND modified gravity," but even the 4σ results seem pretty compelling, no? 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Will Martian G be enough to make healthy baseline babies? · 2021-03-11T23:03:18.301Z · LW · GW

No, worst case is the entire developmental trajectory of infants and children might also get messed up. If gestation in martian G isn't safe, at what point post delivery is Martian G safe? 

Also, on a practical level: can you imagine how unpleasant being stuck in a centrifuge for nine months while pregnant would be? 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on [Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform · 2021-03-10T01:37:06.312Z · LW · GW

The French Revolution was... contemporary with the American Rev, so, around 1770s. I believe there was some sort of retrenchment by the 1880, so perhaps France was "Revolutionary" for on the order of 5 - 80 years (70% certainty).

Massive changes to the legal system and other social institutions seem likely to negatively affect GDP in the short term, with the possibility of positively affecting it in the longer term.

I'd give 40% that the signal is negative for at least a generation, perhaps longer. 
 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Will Martian G be enough to make healthy baseline babies? · 2021-03-09T14:32:35.669Z · LW · GW

I've reached the same conclusion -- it's likely going to have to be asteroids, not planets.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on D&D.Sci III Evaluation and Ruleset · 2021-03-08T23:59:37.223Z · LW · GW

I really appreciated this challenge, as I'd like to get more into data analysis. Thank you for the effort.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk? · 2021-03-08T23:46:18.615Z · LW · GW

What. In. The. World. Happened. In. 2018.

SVXY 2012 - 2021

 

VIX 2012 - 2021

 

SVXY falling off the cliff looks like it was associated with a spike in VIX, but why didn't the previous, bigger spikes have the same effect, sooner?

[ETA]: "For example, SVXY was crushed in the volatility run-up of 2018. The instrument has since reduced leverage to half exposure..." That may explain the shift in behavior since 2018, but not what happened leading up to it. Altho perhaps that might be sufficiently explained by the counter-intuitive behavior of leveraged/inverse ETFs -- this page on the SEC's site actually has a surprisingly good explain-it-like-I'm-twelve:

How can this apparent breakdown between longer term index returns and ETF returns happen? Here’s a hypothetical example: let’s say that on Day 1, an index starts with a value of 100 and a leveraged ETF that seeks to double the return of the index starts at $100. If the index drops by 10 points on Day 1, it has a 10 percent loss and a resulting value of 90. Assuming it achieved its stated objective, the leveraged ETF would therefore drop 20 percent on that day and have an ending value of $80. On Day 2, if the index rises 10 percent, the index value increases to 99. For the ETF, its value for Day 2 would rise by 20 percent, which means the ETF would have a value of $96. On both days, the leveraged ETF did exactly what it was supposed to do – it produced daily returns that were two times the daily index returns. But let’s look at the results over the 2 day period: the index lost 1 percent (it fell from 100 to 99) while the 2x leveraged ETF lost 4 percent (it fell from $100 to $96). That means that over the two day period, the ETF's negative returns were 4 times as much as the two-day return of the index instead of 2 times the return.

Still. Curious. 

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Seeing Status Quo Bias · 2021-03-08T04:31:04.079Z · LW · GW

I think there will be more variance with respect to pre-covid. 

I've been fully remote for the last year and a half or so -- well before covid. It's been... a'ight. Some of my team mates, in my judgement, have not been good collaborators -- they probably wouldn't be good face to face collaborators, but being remote with them added an extra element of unpleasantness. It requires different skills to remote collab well. 

I'd guess that I'm more suited to full-time remote work than at least 80% of people (altho maybe not 80% of programmers..) 

Will remote be at least 2x what it was previously? Maybe. Could be. I don't know what it was previously, but I think it was pretty low, so that's perhaps not a hard threshold to cross.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Seeing Status Quo Bias · 2021-03-08T02:31:11.529Z · LW · GW

It's not clear that switching to primarily remote work will be a win or stable. Some people seem to find video conferencing really draining, and it's unclear what sort of impact it'll have on innovation and team forming. I suspect post covid we'll be in a world with much more video conferencing -- I think that you're right that certain types of occasional meetings will be much more online, such as meetings with lawyers/accountants. But I suspect that people will still want to be in the same space with the people they work with regularly, at least a few times a week.

Comment by Randomized, Controlled (BossSleepy) on Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk? · 2021-03-07T23:14:25.457Z · LW · GW

Hi, thank you for the comments! Do you have any preferred resources for learning about leverage investing/using a margin account?