Posts

App-Based Disease Surveillance After COVID-19 2020-04-10T18:52:52.941Z
How should I dispose of a dangerous idea? 2019-12-18T03:49:45.477Z
Unethical Human Behavior Incentivised by Existence of AGI and Mind-Uploading 2017-03-25T19:29:42.499Z

Comments

Comment by RedMan on The Coordination Frontier: Sequence Intro · 2021-09-13T20:19:43.526Z · LW · GW

Elinor Ostrom's work on collective management of common pool resources doesn't get enough credit.

Transaction and monitoring costs and capability are critical, but are usually handwaved; there's no mention at all in the OP of the importance of building an arrangement that is easily monitored and tested by all participants, even though in real world case studies, the presence or absence of that factor is often the difference between success and failure.

Comment by RedMan on How factories were made safe · 2021-09-13T18:10:58.524Z · LW · GW

I second the comment about workers not caring. If you're on a job site being the person who tells people to make sure they're properly tethered, gets a hose for the dust hazard, or make demands about grounding the electricity before doing work...you won't be popular.

System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) STAMP and CAST from Nancy Leveson at MIT is an absolutely amazing tool for thinking and I recommend anyone interested in hazard analysis and protection look at it. It is revolutionary for safety analysis of industrial processes in general, but I don't think I've ever seen anyone attempt to apply its' principles to AI risk (if I'm wrong, please link the work, I'd love to read it).

Comment by RedMan on I read “White Fragility” so you don’t have to (but maybe you should) · 2021-09-08T21:08:16.752Z · LW · GW

You're absolutely right, the word vicious is redundant. Colloquially, the word racist is understood to include any negative attribute (such as viciousness) that could be ascribed to a person.

Comment by RedMan on All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild · 2021-09-08T20:59:17.875Z · LW · GW

I think you're making a great case for optimism. Based on your last line, I don't think our positions are too far apart.

Laser brooms on the ground are a heavier infrastructure investment than just the rocket, and they haven't been built yet. Rockets with no brooms are cheaper and easier. So needing the broom raises the threshold, perhaps the raised threshold is still in reach, but at some theoretical point, it will not be.

The fossil fuel comment was more in the direction of 'if we insist on burning everything currently in the ground, the runaway greenhouse effect is lethal to the species at 500-1000 year timelines'.

I assert that we could screw ourselves permanently, in this century, by digging into a hole (through inadequate investment of non renewable resources like helium or failure to solve engineering challenges) which we cannot exit before we wreck our habitat (plenty of non co2 scenarios for this). I'm not sure how much pessimism is warranted, I certainly don't think that failure is inevitable, but I absolutely do think it's on the table.

Comment by RedMan on All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild · 2021-09-08T18:12:00.097Z · LW · GW

I think that humanity could definitively fail to colonize the galaxy this century.

I don't see how the non-renewable resources needed to reach space could last 100,000 years in light of business as usual climate scenarios that lock in to permanent failure (uninhabitable earth) at 500-1000 years in the future.

We may be in the beginnings of a kessler syndrome right now (meaning, the cascading collisions are in progress and cannot be stopped, but the timescale is long enough that we will not be locked out of good orbits for decades to centuries), and even if we are not, an incident with any of the 'small swarm sat' constellations (starlink/blue origin) could lock the door on large scale space projects for centuries to milennia, which is time we do not have.

Success requires us to master living (with reproduction) in microgravity and a fully self contained environment, the human-machine interfaces needed for virtual life, the large scale engineering required to build factories on celestial bodies or in space itself, and the energy to power it all. We're nowhere near any of that, and might have a few decades or as much as a century to solve those challenges, but probably not much more. Maybe a general intelligence could create a von neumann probe and working rocket that escapes earth with a minimum of resources in terms of time, manufacturing capacity, and material; but the minimum will never be 'zero' and increasing constraints are certain to increase the difficulty; possibly to the point of impossibility.

A few errors or incidents (massive solar flare, nuclear war, large accident in space, climate catastrophe, etc), or even just failure to reach certain technical milestones in time, could mean that at a certain point, (possibly today?), the spare capacity for this sort of massive scale investment of nonrenewables with limited to no return for the humans living on earth making the investment decision just simply won't be available.

I dont think we've lost the race against the clock yet, but it looks to me like there absolutely is one in progress, and while people alive today may not colonize the galaxy, they may find themselves in a position to definitively say that the human race and its' robots will not.

Comment by RedMan on I read “White Fragility” so you don’t have to (but maybe you should) · 2021-09-08T08:11:09.227Z · LW · GW

I think most people, including people in this thread are vicious racists and do not know it, and that their vicious racism stems from their rationalism.

Here is a simple question to determine whether you practice racism:

"Do you believe that test scores and academic achievements prior to academic or professional training are indicative of increased competence, or are all graduates of a professional program identically competent on graduation day?"

If you believe the latter (all graduates of medical school X are uniformly competent doctors), you are not a folk racist.

If you believe that SAT/GRE/GPA/other factors considered in medical school admission predict greater competence of medical school graduates (a higher score going in makes for a better doctor coming out), then when confronted with a choice between two doctors who on paper are graduates of the same program in the USA, but one is African American, and one is Asian Pacific Islander, you should always judge the AAPI as probably more competent, because the standards for admission that they were held to were higher (most programs practice some form of affirmative action, there may be examples of programs where this is not true, but at many prestigious institutions, it absolutely is).

I assert that the latter is perfectly rational, and would be considered by most Americans as 'folk racist', I don't think Robin would approve either.

The antiracist position appears to be that the ritual of education that empowers one to 'doctor people' is expensive, and can only be performed for a limited number of people, so racial balance in provision of access to the ritual is critical. There are no intrinsic attributes which impact one's ability to doctor people, it all stems from the power invested in them by the performer of the ritual of education (a prestigious ritual in a place of power like Harvard imparts greater doctoring acumen than one performed somewhere less prestigious).

Comment by RedMan on Training My Friend to Cook · 2021-09-01T23:45:33.327Z · LW · GW

If I expressed to a friend "I want you to teach me this skill, here is some time allotted to me and you spending time together, use it however you please", I wouldn't feel manipulated or upset about any of this.

Don't shoot the dog is an awesome book.

Comment by RedMan on [Sponsored] Job Hunting in the Modern Economy · 2021-09-01T22:42:23.068Z · LW · GW

Not that anyone here has ever used Fiverr exactly like this...

Comment by RedMan on Could you have stopped Chernobyl? · 2021-09-01T00:51:50.707Z · LW · GW

A simple sigle act of rebellion (punching the expert) might, at best result in 'start the experiment while I go get some ice, man, wtf is up with that guard' or maybe 'lets do it tomorrow'.

I think that the AN explosions are often preceeded by this conversation:

Intern: "Whoa that's a lot of AN in a pile, are you sure it's safe to have an explosive stored like that? Don't best practices say we should store it in separate containers below a particular critical size?"

Boss "But then I can't store it in a giant silo that's easy to load an arbitrary quantity onto trucks from." / "But space here in the hold/special shipping warehouse is at a premium, all that empty space is expensive. It'll be fiiiine, besides that best practice is dumb anyway, everyone knows it's only explosive if u mix it with fuel oil or whatever, it'll be fine"

Intern: "What if there's a fire?"

Boss" "The fire department will have it under control, it's just fertilizer. Besides, that one fire last year was a fluke, it won't happen again"

AN itself is an explosive (it contains a fuel and an oxider in the chemical structure), but is too insensitive to use as such. Like many explosives, temperature and pressure affect its sensitivity significantly. Critically, AN is an insulator, and with enough heat, will chemically degrade exothermically. So, in a big enough, hot enough, pile of AN, some of the AN in the middle is decomposing, the pile is trapping the heat, and making the pile that much hotter.

The best guesses I've seen for how the disasters develop involve that hot spot eventually getting hot enough, confined enough, and mixed with the degradation products of AN enough that it goes boom, and the explosion propagates through the entire hot, somewhat confined/compressed pile, creating impressive scenes like the one in Beirut.

The West, Texas explosion happened within a month of the Boston bombing. It killed more people, destroyed more property, and was completely preventable. The surviving boston bomber is in prison, nobody who made the decisions at the fertilizer plant suffered any consequences.

I think I'm the only one who found that confusing.

Comment by RedMan on Could you have stopped Chernobyl? · 2021-08-28T13:43:59.577Z · LW · GW

How dare you suggest that fearless Fauci deserves a punch in the nose from a red-capped brigand!

No fire or proper structural means of keeping it in small enough buckets could prevent disasters like texas city, west, texas; and beirut: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26547622/

Comment by RedMan on A Better Web is Coming · 2021-08-23T23:54:16.935Z · LW · GW

The tagging system reminds me of Archive of Our Own and the tag-wranglers.

It couls take off with some blockchain for buzz, like maybe a distributed ledger system for karma?

Comment by RedMan on Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster · 2021-08-22T22:09:54.054Z · LW · GW

What's the math on the 'default unvaccinated' treatment plan of

  1. get a covid test if sick
  2. if test is positive, treat with fluvoxamine and regeneron mabs?

Is there a point where the 'reduced vaccine effectiveness' curve crosses that default treatment?

Obviously a vaccinated person could do that protocol in addition to the vaccine, so this isn't a true comparison.

Comment by RedMan on Coase's "Nature of the Firm" on Polyamory · 2021-08-17T15:42:38.495Z · LW · GW

I really like the analogy in the OP, but no mention of paternity assurance or anxiety about infectious disease in the OP is confusing. The first, and to a lesser extent, the second seem to be some the primary drivers for long term monogamy.

I assert that now that paternity tests are available, and it's theoretically possible for the state to easily care for a new human, monogamy in the form of marital restrictions on women's sexuality, and obligatory paternal investment into children are probably both functionally obsolete, but persist because culture tends to be sticky.

Personally, I found that sexual jealousy is pointless, though I prefer deep longer term bonding instead of short term sexual relationships, someone having STIs (all of which are preventable/treatable) is an indication of irresponsibility that probably means that a relationship with me won't last, and for entirely emotional reasons, and I would attempt to raise/be involved with any child who is genetically mine (but will avoid a child of a partner which is not). Unbundling the other stuff massively improved my life, I have great platonic relationships with people I'm (glad to) not having sex with anymore, and great sexual relationships with people with whom I wouldn't be able to live with and don't share any hobbies/other interests. I recommend it.

I pay my taxes, so child poverty and poor education shouldn't be a thing in my community (even though it is)

Comment by RedMan on What to optimize for in life? · 2021-06-08T05:37:19.109Z · LW · GW

Ataraxia and Aponia.

If the eudaimonic state is unavailable, or likely to become unavailable in the future, determine what obstacles exist to achieving it, and conquer that obstacle, maintain a eudaimonic state while doing so if possible.

Thanks go to: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epicurus

It has been fun so far

Comment by RedMan on D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups · 2021-03-08T23:04:03.209Z · LW · GW

Demon is chaotic evil, cannot directly influence events, and has no direct knowledge of the situation. The demon doesn't know which side actually summoned him. Therefore, advice should literally be random.

Comment by RedMan on Seven Years of Spaced Repetition Software in the Classroom · 2021-03-07T14:53:39.918Z · LW · GW

Thank you for the detailed response! I used it for learning knot tying. It seemed to work, wanted to know if anyone else had tried it for anything like that.

Comment by RedMan on Seven Years of Spaced Repetition Software in the Classroom · 2021-03-06T14:54:01.739Z · LW · GW

Did you get IRB approval for these human studies on children?

Are you familiar with Direct Instruction, which is reminiscent of the Mennonite school?

Have you ever tried SRS for muscle memory?

Comment by RedMan on What other peptide vaccines might it be useful to make? · 2021-03-04T23:15:40.908Z · LW · GW

Thank you for educating me.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3979841/

Existing approaches to toxoids like aflatoxin and ricin use specially built molecules where something immunoreactive is modified to be bonded to an antigen. A peptide vaccine that doesn't require the chemistry would be pretty cool.

The vaccine for morphine works the same way. The immune system recognizes the opiate pharmacophore and binds to it, so that opiates don't bind to their receptors and therefore, heroin rats don't get high. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3558830/

Comment by RedMan on What other peptide vaccines might it be useful to make? · 2021-03-03T07:27:58.153Z · LW · GW

I've always wondered if it could be used for organic fungal toxins and other common airborne hazards

Comment by RedMan on What's your best alternate history utopia? · 2021-02-26T01:12:58.433Z · LW · GW

Aldous Huxley's introduction to the unfinished 'Hopousia' by JD Unwin was always inspiring, I can't come up with a good block quote to leave here, but if you're into utopias, you might like it. I haven't gone and read the rest of the book, so maybe as far as forwards go, it isn't so great.

http://www.artandpopularculture.com/Hopousia_or_The_Sexual_and_Economic_Foundations_of_a_New_Society

Comment by RedMan on A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement · 2021-02-25T17:43:19.656Z · LW · GW

I've seen the advice to buy only if you plan to be in the area for ten years and that if you do buy, to get the longest term fixed mortgage you can, with the monthly payment at what you'd be willing to pay in rent

The rationale is that since the bank can't call it in at any time (like they could in the 1930s), you can live there as long as you're making the payments. If the house has appreciated in value when you're ready to move, sell and receive the equity. If the house has declined in value, the mortgage is only collateralized by the house (is this typical?), so either convert it to a rental property (with a rent rate that brings mortgage plus maintenance to breakeven) until the market recovers, or just walk away from it and view the money spent as 'rent' paid to the bank instead of a landlord.

Comment by RedMan on A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement · 2021-02-24T18:43:51.063Z · LW · GW

Got anything on optimal rates of annual spending?

If I'm reading this correctly, one should identify an optimal rate of spend, acquire as many multiples of that rate as possible, and invest everything above it.

I conceive of needs using the a 'STIMS' concept. Everyone needs shelter, transportation, income, medical, and social engagement for themselves and their dependents. I class things like servants to 'buy back' your time as 'social'.

I wonder what the numbers for all of those that hit the point of diminishing returns are. Arguably, thanks to veblen goods, social can really grow without limit, and medical at the extreme end can probably get pretty high (100 million dollar endowments for a family member's medical condition a la ron perelman)

Comment by RedMan on Apply to Effective Altruism Funds now · 2021-02-23T20:53:12.084Z · LW · GW

I've got some partial outlines for what I think are interesting sci-fi that I've wanted to pay to have ghostwritten or turned into a short film. Is this the right place for that?

Comment by RedMan on Are we prepared for Solar Storms? · 2021-02-18T21:32:29.045Z · LW · GW

When you see the sephirot in the sky....

http://www.theplasmaverse.com/pdfs/Characteristics-for-the-Occurrence-of-a-HighCurrent-ZPinch-Aurora-as-Recorded-in-Antiquity-squatter-squatting-man-Anthony-Peratt.pdf

Paper is long, but I find the description of ancient humans across the world independently doing science (observing and recording observations about the natural world) to be incredibly inspiring, especially because I am fortunate enough to live in an age when this phenomenon can be understood.

The talk from the author on youtube was worth the time for me, but maybe not for you unless you really like the paper.

Comment by RedMan on Remember that to value something infinitely is usually to give it a finite dollar value · 2021-02-16T18:20:39.231Z · LW · GW

Here's a strategy that places infinite value on life.

List all interventions that increase life available, can you buy them all? If yes, do so. If no, check all possible combinations of purchases for the combination that provides the maximum total life. If multiple options are tied for maximizing total life, pick the cheaper one.

Is this how people spend money when the life they're saving is their own?

Comment by RedMan on Humans can drive cars · 2021-02-11T15:49:34.002Z · LW · GW

According to traffic engineers, most accidents happen after the driver stops paying attention for two or more seconds. Basically, if you blink for 'one one thousand' you're probably ok, 'one one thousand two one thousand' is tempting fate.

Comment by RedMan on What is up with spirituality? · 2021-02-04T21:55:49.615Z · LW · GW

I think you're not asking 'why belief', but rather 'why spiritual high'. The brain produces dmt and the brain produces natural analgesics, we are not sure about the origin of dissociative experiences, but chemicals can induce them. Through certain behaviors, which are given cultural significance, it is possible for some people to get high on themselves.

Removing bullet point 1 from the list is probably appropriate, an organized religion distrustful of spiritual experiences can exist. Some orthodox religions that are out of vogue were explicitly distrustful of these spiritual experiences, and more likely to blame them on satan or djinn than the favor of a venerated deity.

That said if a purveyor of religion figures out a way to create a pleasureable emotional state in others, that state could be associated with the religion or offered as evidence of its' truth for the purpose of persuasion. I think this is common today in the USA.

If you want a shortcut to a spiritual experience without religious context, a look through erowid leads me to think that taking ketamine (nmda antagonist) and DMT should get you there without the need for an angry man in the sky, though you would be breaking some laws and risking real prison time depending on how you got everything together. Therefore, while spiritual experience became associated with religious practice, it probably is not at all.

Comment by RedMan on Early career choices to maximise learning? · 2021-02-04T20:57:19.388Z · LW · GW

I found it fun, in some cases it wasn't 'recharging', in others it was. All in all, 'take a vacation and learn something new that's only vaguely related to my day to day routine' was pretty great.

I still take vacations like this, and have now reached a point where I am running out of ideas for them

Comment by RedMan on Early career choices to maximise learning? · 2021-02-04T18:29:04.205Z · LW · GW

I did a few things early career, I'm mid career now, and not particularly successful, but I did learn a lot.

  1. spend the $ price of a semester of college annually on professional development in the form of learning, bias towards things without a credential and with built in tests, use all vacation time to pursue this.

  2. whenever you have a chance to interact with someone who knows something about a field you don't, get book suggestions, and put together a bibliography. Who knows when or if you'll get to it, but between scihub and libgen, you'll at least be able to access it.

I chose work that would challenge me, sometimes getting thrown in the deep end helps, sometimes you drown. Good luck! If I could go back, in time, I'd probably have picked different subjects, and gone with 'full years tuition' per year rather than semester.

Comment by RedMan on Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over · 2020-12-29T10:59:15.282Z · LW · GW

Not sure why the down votes on this one. One of the arguments made at the outset was that a possible vaccine would, for technical reasons specific to coronaviruses generally, cover likely mutants. I don't think the new strain changes anything, but it might politically justify continuing restrictions

Comment by RedMan on [Answer] Why wasn't science invented in China? · 2020-12-24T12:08:12.160Z · LW · GW

Was there anything similar to this in ancient China: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disputation#Inter-faith_disputations

I wonder if the presence of arguments between separate groups who disagreed about absolute truth (in the religious sense) eventually led to arguments about the natural order, and the presentation of experiments to resolve them. Given the presence of religious figures (monks like Mendel, friars like Bacon, etc) in the early sciences, I wouldn't be surprised if there's evidence for this, though I don't have any.

'my god says the cannonball hits before the feather, mine says they hit at the same time, screw you I've got a cannonball, a feather, and a tower, let's settle this'

If the argument happens in an environment where 'you made the higher status person look silly, so now you have to be punished', this does nothing, if it happens in an environment where the crowd can theoretically embrace one or the other on the spot, and it is an actual contest, then that might lead somewhere interesting.

If the Chinese language permits the statement, 'what I said can be read as disagreeing with you o higher status one, but what I intended was the read that exactly supports your beliefs which is totally consistent with the beautiful grammar', then this sort of disputation cannot happen.

I offer the example of Puritanism and Judaism as well.

Puritans believed that salvation was not assured and constantly engaged in introspection to answer the 'am I right with god' question, which required a great deal of 'examination' in a sense that may be relevant to science--see Scott Alexander's post on Puritans for examples of prominent ones.

As I understand it, 'argument' is also core to the practice of Talmudic studies in Judaism, which I suppose could lead to experiments like the above, or at least the development of formal logic. To use von Neumann as an example, if he had not been a scientist in an era where the Jews of Hungary were integrating into wider society (see Scott Alexander's post on the contribution of this group to modernity), he would have (maybe he was? I don't know) made an amazing scholar of the Talmud--he could repeat verbatim everything he had ever read and was an absolute master of reasoning.

Could the insanity of European religious conflict have led directly to the development of modern science? I don't have an answer, or sources, but maybe the idea is interesting.

Comment by RedMan on How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself? · 2020-12-22T08:38:28.469Z · LW · GW

Don't do this in the USA, modafinil is a schedule IV controlled substance. Manufacturing a controlled substance requires a license, and a bunch of other stuff. Use requires a prescription.

If busted, you'd probably be the only 'modafinil lab' the local cops have seen, and it's anyones guess whether the judge and prosecutors treat it like a meth lab or ignore you like a weed farm in a legal state.

Obviously this isn't legal advice, but I'd be unsurprised if making your own modafinil and using it would be treated like a felony akin to making your own DMT or meth and using it ('officer I was making that meth for personal use!' is hilarious, but I doubt a lawyer would let you try it in court). Since you're posting about this on a forum, it's probably safe for you to assume that you wouldn't avoid scrutiny from the law...so yeah, while I definitely feel what you're proposing in principle (why do I need a medical mafia member and the pharma-industrial complex between me and my nootropics????), you'd probably be taking a legal risk you don't need. Idk what the law is outside the US, but I'd assume it isn't sane

Comment by RedMan on How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself? · 2020-12-22T08:22:46.531Z · LW · GW

I have not made the specific radvac vaccine, but have read the prep. I've done all of those steps for other projects, can confirm, extremely simple and straightforward.

I have had an open offer to my friends to go in halfsies on materials if anyone wants it, but no takers thus far.

As far as QC goes, 'trust the vendor to mail you the correct peptides' is the easy route, screwups in that industry are rare and shocking. If you really want to check, raman or IR spectroscopy is probably the way to go--I've only ever used 'the spectrum looks like this, which matches the spectrum in the authoritative source', I've never learned anything about actually reading them. So I couldn't do that myself...an ELISA assay or something (easy to do if you have it, but idk if one is readily available for those peptides) would work too (take sample of peptide, apply elisa test, if pass, it's the peptide)

No real reason not to trust the adjuvant or DI water suppliers either.

The actual final product is a kind of crude mixture, and it's just going up your nose, so you would need to deviate from the procedure pretty severely (like, adding toxic ingredients) in order to really hurt yourself by doing it wrong. It's not like a drug where microgram differences in dose are the difference between ineffective, effective, and lethal

Comment by RedMan on What Would Advanced Social Technology Look Like? · 2020-12-17T04:55:25.298Z · LW · GW

Prosthetic neocortex that permits dunbars number to increase dramatically for the individual using the prosthesis.

Comment by RedMan on Snyder-Beattie, Sandberg, Drexler & Bonsall (2020): The Timing of Evolutionary Transitions Suggests Intelligent Life Is Rare · 2020-11-25T16:38:09.048Z · LW · GW

Of 'we are first, we are freaks, we are fucked' categories of great filter explanations, I think (consistent with this paper) we are definitely freaks, it looks like we may be first (at least in the parts of the universe that might in theory be reachable with existing physics/von neumann probes), and the jury is out on whether we are currently fucked (I'm a pessimist, I think we might be like the patient who ate a bottle of Tylenol, feeling fine, but definitely dead in a few days due to impending liver failure)

Comment by RedMan on What will the economic effects of COVID-19 be? · 2020-11-24T12:16:42.443Z · LW · GW

Antibody tests are here but are not being used to reopen (worries that people will variolate to go back to work, if that's the case wtf is wrong with your economy).

Prophylaxis and symptomatic relief appears to be 'Vitamin D to mitigate the bradykinin storm': https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z "As per the flexible approach in the current COVID-19 pandemic authors recommend mass administration of vitamin D supplements to population at risk for COVID-19." Sure ok, one weird trick that actually works, nice.

Rapid PCR and in New Zealand, full genome sequencing for contact tracing is a thing, awesome. Rapid antigen tests are a thing too, but not helping the economy.

Idk about what works in hospitals, but ventilators and fentanyl scare me more than 'happy hypoxemia' so if I'm conscious enough to say don't take me to a hospital, that's what I'm saying. Remdesivir is not widely available enough for me to bother thinking about.

The DIY corona vaccine appears from what research has been done to be safe (no biologists who took it died) and according to animal model studies, effective. I have the wherewithal to construct it if I want, I haven't bothered, therefore I probably won't screw with the official one when it hits.

Based on present death rates and the state of the economy, quarantine wasn't worth it.

Edit: my best guess about 'long hauler' symptoms is that they're consistent with permanent damage to the lungs and long term low-moderate hypoxia, lung transplants and oxygen bottles are really the only treatments for that (if you can cure scarring and regenerate lung tissue, let the asbestosis and silicosis communities know), so long-haulers are probably screwed. Vitamin D should limit or halt this process.

This supercomputer model seems trustworthy so far: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

Comment by RedMan on What risks concern you which don't seem to have been seriously considered by the community? · 2020-10-30T18:33:38.745Z · LW · GW

Instead of uploading humans to create a large mess of AIs, let's connect humans together as soon as it's safe to do so (maybe at first only the elderly and bedridden, eventually anyone who can wear a hat) then add machines and maybe even animals (sup elephants and dolphins) to create a single gigantic worldbrain. As computer simulations of brain tissue get better, the AI will go from being mostly human to mostly artificial. The death of a fully integrated human body wouldn't cause an interruption in that human's consciousness, because most of it would be distributed across the entire worldbrain.

I believe that extant technology could be used to do this and actually wrote up a technical proposal that I didn't disseminate (it wasn't great and I didn't see anyone being persuaded by it so I trashed it). The technical risk is mostly in testing and some assumptions about the way the brain works that I view as 'plausible' given the state of the art, but far from 'proven'

Comment by RedMan on Why isn’t assassination/sabotage more common? · 2020-06-10T05:08:48.763Z · LW · GW

Using the suggested framework, those would be class 2 not class 3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/susantardanico/2012/03/28/entire-management-team-killed-a-ceos-turnaround-story/ accident or successful class 3 assassination? As I understand it, analysis of these situations can be aided by wearing the correct headgear: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TinfoilHat

Comment by RedMan on Why isn’t assassination/sabotage more common? · 2020-06-05T03:26:11.972Z · LW · GW

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise_and_Kill_First at least one group of people appear to have accepted at least some of your argument.

Furthermore, assassinations fall into three categories:

Where the assassin takes credit afterwards (for intimidation, bragging to supporters, etc), where a third party is blamed (to prevent reprisals being directed at the source), and where it is unclear that an assassination was performed (wow IBM got screwed hard by that plane crash).

From the perspective in the OP, it is clear that there is a detection challenge. The most useful categories (to an assassin) are the third and the second, the least useful is the first. An external observer will see only the first category, and a potential subset of the second category, but is unlikely to see many members of the third category.

Maybe they're very common, and you're just not seeing the obvious.

Comment by RedMan on The Greatest Host · 2020-05-13T03:51:19.453Z · LW · GW

And the absolute most attractive job for a psychopath is 'determiner of who is and is not neuropsychologically fit'.

If you're a shitty human there's money to be made as a child psychologist leveraging that. Abuses are common and it's not hard to issue a pitch like the following: "pay me 30k and I won't tell the court you're an unfit parent and send your kids to the foster care system".

Comment by RedMan on Prospecting for Conceptual Holes · 2020-04-26T12:22:24.798Z · LW · GW

Did you actually learn to speak piraha? Everyone I know totally refused to participate, so I dropped the idea.

Comment by RedMan on Solar system colonisation might not be driven by economics · 2020-04-22T09:29:28.371Z · LW · GW

Cmon dark side of the moon space telescope and weapons test range.

Comment by RedMan on Databases of human behaviour and preferences? · 2020-04-22T09:27:30.297Z · LW · GW

https://hraf.yale.edu/ gl

Comment by RedMan on What are some fun ways to spend $100,000? · 2020-04-22T08:56:06.489Z · LW · GW

A 100k potlatch is easy.

If male, do a dangerous looking activity that demonstrates your mastery of some activity with / in front of a group of your closest friends, then bring them to a wild party with plentiful dopamine agonists and easy sex with attractive women (cocaine and hookers).

If female, pay young and attractive females to do your bidding, dress yourself up to be as pretty as you can, and go somewhere where you can be seen by as many (ideally high status) people as possible.

Repeat until out of money.

Try to avoid alcohol, strip clubs, slot machines, and canned hunting, as they are cheap and shitty imitations.

Enron's inner circle did company retreats with atv riding followed by wild parties. Larry Ellison owns a fighter jet and pays a 25k noise fine whenever he takes it out at 3am.

I initially wrote a lot more, with activity recommendations, but really this covers it.

If you do want specific advice, it's available, just invite me to the party.

You know, for science.

Comment by RedMan on App-Based Disease Surveillance After COVID-19 · 2020-04-12T20:23:04.264Z · LW · GW

I would be surprised if you could not figure out if two people are screwing with moderate confidence using nothing but demographic data and location based metadata dumped into a ML algorithm. The price of false positives is a few unnecessary tests, and is therefore super low, so it doesn't even have to be that good of a system.

Tinder data could be purchased to build out the initial algorithm, and if there are still challenges, volunteers could be solicited for validation data.

Mixing in public social media (instagram) and actual communications content might help, but after validation of the location system, probably isn't necessary, but could be analyzed using robots rather than human review, which is apparently acceptable for other purposes.

Is it morally justified to use location metadata (gps), public social media (instagram), communications metadata (contact lists), and communication content to enumerate close contacts that may have spread respiratory viruses? If so, how could it be wrong to use the exact same dataset to fight other diseases with massive social burdens.

I mean sure, some people might cry about their privacy, but the data isn't theirs, courts have established that it belongs to the communication companies, all of whom are apparently on board with metadata assisted surveillance for security and now public health.

Google and Apple are building the Bluetooth tracker, the Chinese gps app with color coding for exposure risk is a thing, facebook checked instagram to see if people in Italy are social distancing. Nobody is crying about any of these things. This is just a proposal to use the same datasets for the same reason.

Anyone who argues can be labelled pro disease and pushee out of the public debate, just like anyone who complains about flu tracking software can be asked, 'do you want old people to die'?

The initial system could be instrumented with a color coding scheme, and an app. When people go to dr offices, part of the basic vitals check at the start of a visit is the doctor running a database check and suggesting testing for various conditions based on the color code. The app to check your own color code status could be downloaded by interested users. 'Show your color' would become something people just ask each other during intimate encounters.

Most jurisdictions already require that positive tests for certain pathogens (STIs are on this list) be reported to a central authority by doctors, this is a long-standing thing and nobody with an opinion that matters questions it:

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001929.htm

Governments could implement this proposal without much public debate by just rolling out a corona app, adding features for different classes of respiratory disease, then adding features for the rest of the 'reportable pathogens' that are transmitted by different means. The model could be developed in house using already available data (reported tests and location metadata).

We can look back at this post in five years and see how things have moved. Good luck stopping it if you think this is morally repugnant as you apparently do.

Comment by RedMan on Law school taught me nothing · 2020-04-12T11:51:34.795Z · LW · GW

So three years with a good anki deck would be more valuable than sitting classes in terms of remembering the useful stuff?

Comment by RedMan on Transportation as a Constraint · 2020-04-09T11:30:21.632Z · LW · GW

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Crowd

This and the other 4 stories from a mathematician turned sci-fi author have aged well. Hope you enjoy them as much as I did when I read them.

Comment by RedMan on What Surprised Me About Entrepreneurship · 2020-04-06T12:31:43.644Z · LW · GW

Hy is amazing, and I want to learn more about your small data approach. I do not work in quant finance

Comment by RedMan on What will the economic effects of COVID-19 be? · 2020-03-27T16:13:29.189Z · LW · GW

We need a rapid test to identify people with immunity, so they can go back to work.

Quarantine is worth it, hospitals are overwhelmed, but it is failing, and will continue to fail. The sooner we can identify people who have gotten it and recovered, then put those people to work in high exposure occupations, the sooner we can restart the economy.

The classes of treatment needed here are as follows:

Rapid pcr test: expensive, and needed for surveillance of key workers, as well as contact tracing. We have this, but it won't scale.

Vaccine: this enables eradication, but is a minimum of 18 months away, and the effort may fail

Post exposure prophylaxis: something given before or immediately after exposure that stops the disease in its tracks (healthcare workers need this, if antimalarials do the job, yay we know those are safe and effective prophylactically)

Symptomatic relief: something given when early symptoms show, which pregents the development of catastrophic symptoms (the malaria drug will hopefully fit this)

Catastrophic care: more and better ventilators and ways of managing ards/cytokine storm. Gl with this, we wanted it before thia crisis.

Rapid antibody test: identifies patients who are exposed. Two weeks after a positive test, if the patient hasn't been admitted to a hospital, it will be safe to say that that particular patient will not require that level of care and is probably no longer contagious.

We need the rapid antibody test, and we need about a billion of them, do rolling tests, if someone has a positive test and thinks they had symptoms > 1 week prior, return them to work and tell them to avoid anyone with a negative test for a week, if they can.

Comment by RedMan on Rationalists, Post-Rationalists, And Rationalist-Adjacents · 2020-03-22T00:30:51.426Z · LW · GW

Is there a working definition for anti-rationalist?