Comment by rmjohnston on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event · 2010-10-09T20:39:15.116Z · LW · GW

I'm here similarly after reading the aforementioned author note.

There's no legitimate controversy regarding the bra clasp. The clasp was cataloged six weeks after the murder and after being handled by multiple investigators. Sollecito had, of course, visited the apartment multiple times in the two weeks prior to the murder investigation beginning, so his DNA was present in the apartment. The DNA found on the bra clasp was entirely consistent with contamination, and the circumstances under which the clasp was cataloged make contamination inevitable. No reputable judge would ever allow the jury to consider the bra clasp as evidence.

Given the lack of any other evidence against Sollecito and the compelling evidence against Guede, no rational person would attribute any weight to the bra clasp.

Anyway, I'd heard about the case before, but hadn't followed it.

There's no physical evidence against either Knox or Sollecito, the inconsistencies in their statements are classical examples of the inconsistencies brought about by sleep deprived intimidation and interrogation by the police, and all the "theories" about how they participated in the murder and covered up the physical evidence of their participation are tin-foil hat material. And there's an absolutely compelling suspect who isn't them.

Probability that AK is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%. Probability that Sollecito is guilty: indistinguishable from 0%.

Given that Guede was in the apartment at the time of the murder (admitted by him), his DNA was found inside the victim, he initially offered a ridiculously implausible story about how the murder happened ("Guede claimed he suddenly needed to use the bathroom, and while he was sitting on the toilet listening to his iPod, a stranger entered the cottage and attacked Meredith. Guede said he emerged from the bathroom and grappled with the stranger, who ran off into the night after shouting "a black man found is a black man condemned.") and changed his story to name Sollecito once he knew the police and prosecutor's "theory," and the supporting DNA evidence against him that can't be explained by visits to the apartment prior to the murder:

Probability that Guede is guilty: > 99%, with some distinguishably greater than 0% but not significant chance that his initial implausible story was true.