Posts

Concrete benefits of making predictions 2024-10-17T14:23:17.613Z
Fatebook for Chrome: Make and embed forecasts anywhere on the web 2024-02-16T16:08:15.917Z
Forecast your 2024 with Fatebook 2024-01-05T14:07:55.743Z
Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions 2023-07-11T15:28:13.798Z
Fatebook for Slack: Track your forecasts, right where your team works 2023-05-11T14:11:07.620Z
Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool 2023-03-22T17:26:11.033Z
The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation web app 2023-02-20T11:33:04.736Z
Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app 2022-09-20T22:25:44.973Z
Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice 2022-08-11T17:38:06.474Z

Comments

Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Predicting: Quick Start · 2023-07-04T11:11:20.929Z · LW · GW

Other platforms

See also Confido and Fatebook 

Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Predicting: Quick Start · 2023-07-04T11:10:14.039Z · LW · GW

https://peterattiamd.com/confidence/ - The only numeric calibration test that I know of (asks you to provide a "95% confidence interval)!! :) However, you'll need to grade it yourself :(

See also quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration

Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Fatebook for Slack: Track your forecasts, right where your team works · 2023-05-15T13:25:10.492Z · LW · GW

Thanks! There's a Manifold Markets Discord bot which lets you quickly create and bet on markets

We might create a Fatebook Discord bot if there's enough interest (some other people have asked for it) - though first we're making a web version.

Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool · 2023-03-23T11:34:03.254Z · LW · GW

Good question - each time it'll ask for your 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, or 95% confidence interval (chosen at random). So over time you'll be able to see your calibration scores

See your Anki calibration scores
Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice · 2022-08-11T22:18:53.597Z · LW · GW

Unfortunately, there’s no fully general solution to prevent cheating. We rely on people’s honor to skip questions they already know and intend it to be used mainly as a tool for training and competing against people you trust.

Comment by Sage Future (aaron-ho-1) on Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice · 2022-08-11T18:56:46.853Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the feedback! We've fixed the issue and you should be able to see our default question again after login.