Comment by Sinai on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event · 2010-10-09T03:58:14.070Z · LW · GW

I arrived at the site from the HP fanfiction after reading the author's notes concerning the case.

Probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty -- 99%

Knox and Sollecito's alibis are contingent on the other. However, I recognize that there is a probability that one may lie to cover the other, so it is not implausible that one may be guilty without the other being so. While they certainly had the opportunity to murder, there appears to be neither motive nor weapon. The only credible evidence against Sollecito is his DNA being on the bra hook material, and there's a great deal of controversy regarding that specimen. The knife thing is just stupid. I have had roommates, and I can guarantee you there are DNA traces of both me and my roommate on pretty much every knife we've ever had. Frankly, the only reason I'm judging Knox's probability of being a murderer being so high is that they're two girls who shared a bathroom, so she automatically has motive.

I recognize that having read the author's notes, I am biased to believe that Amanda Knox is innocent. That being said, I am completely unfamiliar with the case. I went to the pro-guilty site first, where I had a great deal of difficulty discerning relevant information. I spent approximately 20 minutes navigating the site, growing more and more convinced that Amanda Knox and Rafaele Solecito were not guilty because of the near-impossibility of finding relevant facts that pointed out to their guilt. I then went to the pro-innocent site, and spent about 5 minutes there, which confirmed what I suspected; that the evidence against said defendants was completely circumstantial. I then proceeded to read approximately 1/2 of the Massei report, which struck me as rather biased, which made me very sad when I realized he was the presiding judge in the case. Regardless, by that point I was convinced the prosecution had no case, and was largely built on inconsistencies in Amanda Knox's testimony. I was then annoyed to realize that much of the case had to do with Pretty White Girl Syndrome, because however little evidence there was against Amanda Knox, there was even less against her boyfriend Sollecito. I the proceeded to the Wikipedia article, because let's face it, there's really no better place for an overview of the whole shebang . At this point, I'm pretty much offended at this travesty of justice. The evidence against these two defendants seems to be, "they did not have completely time-consistent alibis" and some bum says he saw them together near the murder scene.

edit: I am basing my probabilities on two primary factors: 1) I saw no evidence that Knox or Sollecito were at the crime scene and their alibi seems eminently plausible to me and 2) The pro-guilty site seems batshit crazy.