skinnersboxy feed - LessWrong 2.0 Reader skinnersboxy’s posts and comments on the Effective Altruism Forum en-us Call for Contributions: Implied Marginal Value of Time from Good/Services https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wK8n9Z3RqAmwtYWWk/call-for-contributions-implied-marginal-value-of-time-from <p>If you buy a good or service with the hope that doing so will save you time, then doing so creates a lower bound on the marginal value of your time. For example, if you expect that filing your taxes by hand will take 5 hours, and filing your taxes with a tax-preparation software like TurboTax will take you 1 hour, and this software costs $50, and you are neutral between filing taxes by hand or by software, then the you should buy the software if and only if you value the marginal unit of your time at or above <span><style>.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0; min-height: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 1px 0} .MJXc-display {display: block; text-align: center; margin: 1em 0; padding: 0} .mjx-chtml[tabindex]:focus, body :focus .mjx-chtml[tabindex] {display: inline-table} .mjx-full-width {text-align: center; display: table-cell!important; 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padding-bottom: 0.372em;">$</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">50</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-denominator" style="font-size: 70.7%; width: 6.88em; bottom: -0.775em;"><span class="mjx-mrow" style=""><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">5</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&nbsp;hours</span></span><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.298em; padding-bottom: 0.446em;">−</span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">1</span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">&nbsp;hour</span></span></span></span><span style="border-bottom: 1.3px solid; top: -0.296em; width: 4.865em;" class="mjx-line"></span></span><span style="height: 1.618em; vertical-align: -0.548em;" class="mjx-vsize"></span></span><span class="mjx-mo MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.077em; padding-bottom: 0.298em;">=</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom MJXc-space3"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">$</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mn"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">12.50</span></span><span class="mjx-texatom"><span class="mjx-mrow"><span class="mjx-mo"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.446em; padding-bottom: 0.593em;">/</span></span></span></span><span class="mjx-mtext"><span class="mjx-char MJXc-TeX-main-R" style="padding-top: 0.372em; padding-bottom: 0.372em;">hour</span></span></span></span></span></span>.</p><p>Rationalists do these kinds of calculations all the time, but as far as I can tell, they aren&#x27;t written down. This is bad, because a) everyone has to redo the math and b) coming up with ways to save time is hard. I just created a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13EQ_q1jWlpGhHfnUlUv04M0eOd-_NfuxfM4yQyrlLbk/edit?usp=sharing">spreadsheet</a> where I&#x27;m going to put all of the value-of-time results I compute from now on, and would appreciate it if others contributed to this sheet. Ideally, we&#x27;d get the sheet to the point where whenever the value of your time changes, you sort the timesavers by that value, and then you can start/stop buying most of the easily available timesavers for the new value.</p> skinnersboxy wK8n9Z3RqAmwtYWWk 2019-03-11T15:59:04.074Z Comment by skinnersboxy on Debate AI and the Decision to Release an AI https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8R9XcZKZ4f38aRJ9A/debate-ai-and-the-decision-to-release-an-ai#C2Ye8v8ctR5uS3rPD <p>B having enough natural language speech, AI architecture analysis, and human psychology skills to make good arguments to humans is probably AGI complete, and thus if B&#x27;s goal is to prevent A from being released, it might decide that convincing us to do it is less effective than breaking out on its own, taking over the world, and then systematically destroying any hardware A could exist on, just to be increasingly confident that no instance of A exists ever again. Basically, this scheme assumes on multiple levels that you have a boxing strategy strong enough to contain an AGI. I&#x27;m not against boxing as an additional precaution, but I am skeptical of any scheme that requires strong boxing strategies to start with.</p> skinnersboxy C2Ye8v8ctR5uS3rPD 2019-01-21T14:52:48.486Z